You're assuming the sales pace will continue as it has. I don't think that's likely. No doubt a large percentage of this 4 million were sold first at launch and then right after the price drop. Now that the phone's been on the market for a while and the early adopter crowd satisfied, I don't see what's going to entice the mass market to buy in. Especially now that the holidays are over, sales are most definitely going to slow.
For them to hit 10 million by the end of 2008, they'd need to be at least at 5-6 million right now, barring any further changes to either pricing or features. And those may still be coming. But if so, then you'd be pretty dumb to buy in now.
I wonder how these sales compare to the Razr in its heyday. A few years back, seemed like every single person I saw on the street had one of those.
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Reid:
You're assuming the sales pace will continue as it has. I don't think that's likely. No doubt a large percentage of this 4 million were sold first at launch and then right after the price drop. Now that the phone's been on the market for a while and the early adopter crowd satisfied, I don't see what's going to entice the mass market to buy in. Especially now that the holidays are over, sales are most definitely going to slow.
For them to hit 10 million by the end of 2008, they'd need to be at least at 5-6 million right now, barring any further changes to either pricing or features. And those may still be coming. But if so, then you'd be pretty dumb to buy in now.
I wonder how these sales compare to the Razr in its heyday. A few years back, seemed like every single person I saw on the street had one of those.