Apple halving iPhone projections for quarter?

Take this for what it's worth. After all, DigiTimes' rumor record has been piss-poor of late. Nevertheless, the widely quoted Taiwanese-tattle rag says that projected iPhone shipments have been reduced from 2 million units to "around 1 - 1.2 million" for the current quarter ending March 2008. This according to Economic Daily News (EDN) sources at component suppliers. Nevertheless, Apple's own CFO and COO team said on Tuesday that Apple "remains very confident" that they will ship 10 million handsets by the end of 2008 as originally stated -- even while projecting a very low (even for Apple) EPS for the March quarter. So who ya going to believe?

[amby @ Jan 24th 2008 7:00AM]

I guess they shipped more during Christmas than expected, which partly could be sales coming forward from the current quarter. It still doesn't mean anything, as iPhone sales are excellent. If they add more markets and one hw version update before Christmas '08, 10 million looks as an easy target. (E.g. 3 million in calendar 1H08, new markets in 3Q: 2 million, Christmas Q: 3m, iPhone hw upgrade for existing users: + 2m. Easy :)

[fred @ Jan 24th 2008 8:30AM]

And if this was a story from any other company, you would be saying that they grossly overestimated the popularity of this and that the hype was overdone.

But it's Apple, so spin + happy face emoticons for all! :)

[amby @ Jan 24th 2008 9:42AM]

thanks, Fred ;-)

I'm, using a Nokia N95 8GB (and a Nokia N82 sometimes) and I'm a very happy owner. I would recommend those phones over an iPhone almost to everyone (except people wanting to look fashion-cool, or finding it hard to cope with technical stuff). I don't see myself buying an iPhone in the next 5-years (they are quite behind in functionality, you know ;-).

That said, I still don't think that selling 1.2 million instead of 2 million in the current quarter means anything for popularity, sales targets or the quality of the iPhone :-)

[The Market @ Jan 24th 2008 10:37AM]

See, I was looking for my 3G iPhone, but I just couldn't find it. Have you seen it?

[Mark M @ Jan 24th 2008 12:35PM]

Pretty confusing post: Digitimes is an untrustworthy rag yet it's the Economic Daily News that is in fact the one making the claims, which are not mutually exclusive to what the apple suits said - who are you going to believe in this false choice?

Cmon, get real or hire an editor.

[BlissX @ Jan 24th 2008 7:01AM]

Only logical explanation as to halving production? [if true]

Vamping up production of the new 3G 16GB iPhone, Silly!

[stooke @ Jan 24th 2008 8:57AM]

Exactly my thoughts; this same scenario plays out before they announce a new Mac model.

[Bill @ Jan 24th 2008 10:43AM]

There could be some connection to the downturn in the economy, but I tend to agree with you on the 3G theory. Most predictions say by June they will have one, so the timing is about right.

[Ronald @ Jan 24th 2008 7:06AM]

Release it in all EU countries to sell more. *******!

[xploit @ Jan 24th 2008 7:07AM]

or hi dont forget about us australians..... anytime soon apple. anytime soon. remember that flagship store ur building and opening soon in sydney? maybe a good time to release the phone?????

[Twitchy @ Jan 24th 2008 7:14AM]

Perhaps the reduction in shipment numbers is in reference to iPhone v. 1.0, and the rest of the 10 million will be made up of iPhone v. 2.0?

[Homeboy @ Jan 24th 2008 7:16AM]

Here's a tip for Apple:

SDK + unlocked iPhone = 10 million phones this year

[Erick @ Jan 24th 2008 9:21AM]

"SDK + unlocked iPhone = 10 million phones this year"

Ill do you one better

SDK + unlocked iPhone + (price - 15%) = 10 million phones this year

[Jason @ Jan 24th 2008 9:34AM]

More like 25 Million.

But Apple will choose fewer sales and keep subscriber revenue stream.

[mike @ Jan 24th 2008 7:21AM]

For God's sake quit spewing this trip ... something like this is impossible, you're talking about APPLE

[jon @ Jan 24th 2008 7:30AM]

If they project 10m is that in total?

4m to 2007 - leaving 6m to the end of 2008 - 1.5m per quarter

not unrealisable if they release a 3g version during the year.

[amby @ Jan 24th 2008 8:16AM]

10 million was the target for 2008.

[jon @ Jan 24th 2008 8:54AM]

Okay 10m for 2008

Digitimes - 1.5m per quarter (standard run rate) = 6m

New 3G Model - 2m per quarter upgrade (July to Dec) = 4m

Don't forget the europeans will be more keen with a 3G model - and we haven't discussed the possibility of a 'nano' version appearing later in the year.

[ClaMs @ Jan 24th 2008 9:19AM]

I've been waiting for a 3G model for over a year now! :)
As soon as it comes out I'm snatching it.

[rav97 @ Jan 24th 2008 7:40AM]

Apple is moving its goalpost. Originally it was '10M units sold in 2008 alone', now it's '10M units sold by the end of 2008'.
Considering that they already sold 4M, this means that they have 12 months to sell 6M; in other words, they have to sell 0.5M per month, or equivalently 1.5M per quarter. Since they are probably expecting to sell more than 1.5M in the last quarter (holiday season), 1.2M for this quarter seems in line with the new goalpost.

[Fadi Nassar @ Jan 24th 2008 7:46AM]

No, htey always stated 10 million by the end of 2008.

10:57am -
26m game consoles sold, 94m digital cameras, 135m MP3 players, 209m PCs, 957m phones... 1% market share is 10 million phones. "Exactly what we're trying to do, 1% market share in 2008, 10 million units and we'll go from there."

From 2007 keynote at macworld:
http://www.engadget.com/2007/01/09/live-from-macworld-2007-steve-jobs-keynote/

[amby @ Jan 24th 2008 8:20AM]

I think it was 10 million in 2008. (1%; 10 million; 1 billion - is a yearly figure), but it really doesn't matter as they sold 4 million in half a year, with limited markets and limited functionality. All it takes is more markets, the regular sw and some hw upgrade to bump the predictable 6-8 million up to 10.

[Michael @ Jan 24th 2008 8:46AM]

If you have your iPhone, and I have my iPhone, why do we care how many Apple sells? If you own shares of Apple's stock, then I understand but this is not the Finanacial Times or the Wall Street Journal. And the iPhone is not the Social. I can make phone calls to non-iPhone users, I can send text messages and email to non-iPhone users but I do not the world to own iPhones in order to listen to my music, watch my video or review my pictures.

You should care about this because you own shares of AAPL. Or because if Apple wants to sell more, maybe they will drop the price. Otherwise, who cares. The more people that own the iPhone, the less cool I am.

[realnbk @ Jan 24th 2008 9:09AM]

Of course it's important if you own stock. It is also important for two reasons even if you don't own stock.
10 million is a benchmark against which the industry will be measuring the success of the iphone.
First, Success means the platform will see more competition hence lower prices and more innovation in the future.
Second, Success will encourage more applications, games, ... to be developed for the platform.

[DJ @ Jan 24th 2008 10:44AM]

Apple itself has created this problem. iPhone has gone from the "got it" buyer to the "what's it got" buyer, the later wanting more features like 3G, 16MB or more, etc. Stevie J has fed the "we'll upgrade everything in 9 months or less" mentality. As a result, a lot of buyers are willing to wait for the second gen because they know it'll be out before August. And you have the value buyer who is waiting for the $199.00 iPhone.

[DT @ Jan 24th 2008 10:45AM]

Boy, Engadget, I sure hope you have good sources on this one...remember the havoc when you posted that false story about the iPhone being delayed? Try not to play fast and loose with peoples' investments.

[CosterMonger @ Jan 24th 2008 11:06AM]

Canada?

[Timmy @ Jan 24th 2008 11:36AM]

"It may come as some consolation to the investors who lost their shirts as Apple (AAPL) shares collapsed over the past month that nobody lost more, at least on paper, than its CEO." Fortune magazine

Hahahahah hahha lol hahah hahh (breaths in) hahah ahah ahah lolololo ahaha

[Timmy @ Jan 24th 2008 11:42AM]

http://apple20.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2008/01/24/apple-selloff-how-much-did-steve-lose/

[Mr. M @ Jan 24th 2008 1:41PM]

if they are readying a 3G phone, then you would expect current phone sales to drop from announcement to sale date.

[Dave @ Jan 24th 2008 2:52PM]

As Doc Holiday, said as he was dying with his boots off, "This is funny."

What's happened over the past few days is the seemingly all too human tendency to look for what's wrong. Those number from last quarter were real and surpassed even dreams. Now Engadget has given those folks some more fodder. But, that's a blogger's job, get attention.

Notice that all these headlines say "Apple says", but Apple hasn't said a thing. Yes, I'm a stock holder. Bought my first Mac in 1984 and figured I'd pay for it by buying $2000 worth of stock. I just watched it as it floated all over the place. It's still doing that. What a great ride.

[Ray @ Jan 25th 2008 10:56AM]

Apple has to constantly outperform just to maintain their success and stock price. Any time they just meet expectations or don't bring something revolutionary to MacWorld, their stock price gets slammed, as it is now. They have to lower expectation so they can blow them away. They're taking their medicine now, while the stock price is already getting hammered.

Apple has a very strong line up right now, but people are expecting sales of the iPhone to be as revolutionary as the device itself, which just wont happen at this price point on AT&T's network. It's still a very successful product though.

The MacBook Air however is going to produce devastating sales numbers and crush the stock as the Mac Cube did, because Apple put their arrogance as wanting to be seen as the best design company ahead of their customer's needs. I predict the Apple TV is going to also be a continued failure, it seems Apple just doesn't understand this market. As an Apple investor, I have a very strong long term outlook on Apple, but this quarter is going to probably push their stock down over 50% from their high before macworld and provide a very good buying opportunity.

[Dave @ Jan 25th 2008 2:02PM]

Too me the most compelling reason to expect a rosy future for Apple is the dramatic increase in Mac users. While users of devices like the iPod can go away quickly, those who decide to go Mac are long term annuities.

Microsoft is living off of that base of users. If they didn't have, in essence, a monopoly with Office, their cash cow would be gone. After all, the threat of not developing Office for the Mac forced Apple to drop their law suit against Microsoft years ago.