Gartner: Blu-ray to win in 2008, HD DVD price cuts are "useless resistance"

Gartner, the fat lady of research firms, is singing HD DVD's swan song this morning. Hiroyuki Shimizu, Principal Research Analyst in Japan, says in Gartner's Semiconductor DQ Monday Report that, "Gartner believes that Toshiba's price-cutting may prolong HD DVD's life a little, but the limited line-up of film titles will inflict fatal damage on the format." He goes on to call the recent price cuts "useless resistance" in avoiding the inevitable. What's that, you coyly ask? According to Shimizu, "Gartner expects that, by the end of 2008, Blu-ray will be the winning format in the consumer market, and the war will be over." With 5 of the 7 major studios now backing Blu-ray exclusively, Gartner's certainty on the subject doesn't appear to be much of a stretch.

[Mike10010100 @ Jan 28th 2008 5:55AM]

We are the borg. Lower your shields and surrender your vessels. We will add your biological and technological distinctiveness to our own.

[jay-t @ Jan 28th 2008 6:33AM]

resistance is futile

[pigfister @ Jan 28th 2008 7:26AM]

yes indeed, and the MPAA DRM advocates (sony, disney & Fox) jump for joy while everyone hands control of the hardware over to the MPAA with Blu-Ray only BD+, studios are allowed to run any code they wish to combat piracy! but they have yet to flick the switch on ICT (image constraint token)

http://www.boingboing.net/2006/05/23/hdmi-the-manchurian-.html

and we thought sony's xcp rootkit phone home DRM was bad!


The BPI Are: SONY, UNIVERSAL, WARNER GROUP, EMI.

The RIAA Soundexchange Are: SONY, UNIVERSAL, WARNER GROUP, EMI.

The MPAA Are: SONY, UNIVERSAL, WARNER GROUP, DISNEY, PARAMOUNT, FOX.

[r3loaded @ Jan 28th 2008 7:27AM]

HDi will be assimilated into Profile 1.1

[Boudu @ Jan 28th 2008 8:43AM]

@Pigfister

Looking at your profile there, you have posted that exact same comment dozens of times on Engadget. We got it the first time, this place isn't a soap box.

http://www.blogsmith.com/profile/937447/

[teej @ Jan 28th 2008 9:38AM]

@boudu,

the internet is a soapbox- deal with it.

[Boostjunkie @ Jan 28th 2008 10:11AM]

I don't know which is worse, the fact that he posted the same comment multiple times, or the fact that you actually keep track of it and even bothered to post a link.

[Boudu @ Jan 28th 2008 10:14AM]

Not a PERSONAL soapbox; where you have cut/paste long-ass remarks that you spam literally dozens of stories in. Also, replying to the first comment with irrelevant remarks just to be on the top of the page is beyond annoying. There are people with legitimate conversation below that get knocked down.

[palmolive @ Jan 28th 2008 10:29AM]

Boostjunkie, You don't need to keep track, you can look at people's previous post just by clicking on their username. You can also change your password BTW.

[Serengeti @ Jan 28th 2008 11:09AM]

@Boudu

Sorry, could you bring me up to date on the different types of Soapboxes there are? I honestly wasn't aware there was more than one.

Perhaps the original poster could have modified his comment each time he posted it so that each was a unique snowflake immune to the criticisms of the easily irritable or the close minded.

[Daniel D @ Jan 28th 2008 12:10PM]

God Damnit will people stop saying soap-box!

[pigfister @ Jan 28th 2008 1:38PM]

i believe that everyone should know exactly what they are getting into and you seem to want to instigate a s,ear campaign against me because i keep telling ppl this infomation that they need to here, what's your problem and btw ict has yet to be turned on 2010 is when your kit gets officially screwed by the MPAA!

[IndiaTech @ Jan 28th 2008 1:52PM]

This is funny considering that Star Trek is on HD-DVD and not on BRD.

[pigfister @ Jan 28th 2008 2:01PM]

@ boudu

stop what exactly, posting the truth of the pro DRM advocates in the MPAA or the fact the blu-ray only DRM BD+ is bad for the consumer as it gives the studios the right to do anything they wish to our hardware, or ict has been delayed at the will of sony m$ to allow all old, none future proof incompatible stock to be sold to consumers before they flick the switch?

i didn't mention the fact that the sony and fox lobby introduced a bill into the "spy act" that allows them to install any code they wish into our hardware without fear of litigation and we are not allowed to debug and notify the world about dubious, malicious, code anymore.

google "spy act only protects drm" and read the content

[why not the LS2LS7? @ Jan 28th 2008 5:52PM]

They already could run any code they wanted, BD has Java for that. BD+ makes no difference.

[pigfister @ Jan 29th 2008 3:23AM]

@ why not

they could but if it damaged your hardware they were liable since sony and fox lobby introduced the sections into the spy act they can now use any DRM that we are not allowed to debug and they are immune from prosecution. BD+ is the blu-ray only extra level of DRM that uses the java platform to run the code it was finalised for use in september last year.

http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/10/03/foxs-new-blu-ray-titles-with-bd-wont-playing-in-all-players/
FTA: Fox's new Blu-ray titles with BD+ won't play in all players

[jared @ Jan 28th 2008 5:58AM]

I want to become an analyst. They state the things that the public already knows.

[Jared @ Jan 28th 2008 8:47AM]

And get paid a lot to do it!

[KR @ Jan 28th 2008 9:11AM]

Yep! I said the same thing weeks ago! How come Gartner gets quoted instead of me? Just cause I'm nobody? :D

[friday @ Jan 28th 2008 12:53PM]

they get payed for that prediction made months ago, then sold to their clients. They release it for free later to the media exactly when everybody knows it and nobody is willing to pay for the information

[Jon @ Jan 28th 2008 2:30PM]

Didn't Gartner predict that OS/2 would rule the roost by 1992? Maybe it was 1993, I can't remember. All I know is that my apps aren't working.

[Dave @ Jan 28th 2008 5:59AM]

I could not agree more. 2008 will be Blu (real) high def year!

[Erik @ Jan 28th 2008 6:06AM]

The *real* winners in 2008? The people who sat out the format war.

[Hatch @ Jan 28th 2008 6:36AM]

. . . . and the people who bought Blu-ray.

[DrXym @ Jan 28th 2008 6:44AM]

Hatch, If you're an early adopter, you are always taking a risk. It's a coin toss game. Blu Ray may have been the superior format, but all it would have taken is slightly deeper pockets by Toshiba / MS and it could have gone the other way.

[David S @ Jan 28th 2008 6:57AM]

Only thing early adopters got were overpriced players and a obsolete (I'm sorry "incomplete") format. Then again, if people are really all that happy to send companies $400-$1000 to pay for hardware that is planned to be out of date or isn't feature complete, its a free country.

That said, the only thing worse than buying blue would be to buy red.

[John @ Jan 28th 2008 7:28AM]

hey, some of us coughed up 600 for a PS3 with a blu ray drive... and full backwards compatibility :D

but really, apart from the PS3, the whole multiple profile thing is a killer.

[Flashpoint @ Jan 28th 2008 8:02AM]

Who really sat out of the Format War?

Anyone who purchased a PS3 automatically became entrenched on the side of Blu Ray.

The PS3 is where the Blu Ray -HDDVD war was won. The problem was, Microsoft didn't install an HDDVD drive in the XBOX360 Premium or Elite when they did their revision. By leaving the HDDVD drive an expensive add-on, they basically killed HDDVD. Sony's gamble paid off.

[r3loaded @ Jan 28th 2008 8:43AM]

Flashpoint, here's the choice MS faced:

HD DVD standard on Xbox 360 - win format war, lose console war (due to high cost)
HD DVD not standard on Xbox 360 - lose format war, win console war (excluding Wii, Microsoft had been top for well over a year)

[E71 @ Jan 28th 2008 9:03AM]

Nice. Now it's time for me to go and find the best Blu-ray writer in the market for my HTPC. Kick a**! :)

[DrXym @ Jan 28th 2008 6:23AM]

I think even Toshiba know the end is in sight. It wouldn't surprise me if they're clearing stock from their channels (assisted with firesales from Amazon and probably others) before making the announcement. The sooner it comes the better for everyone, including Toshiba. They might even be able to pull out a Blu Ray / HD DVD hybrid player in time for the holiday season if they hurry.

[Kelmon @ Jan 28th 2008 6:32AM]

As far as I am concerned both formats are losers - I plan on going with a digital download service when we eventually get an HD television. I'm not that interested in owning movie discs and an on-demand service at 720p is worth more to me than having to obtain a disc for 1080p. In the same way as I'm not that interested in extras on DVDs today I can't see myself being interested in more extras on a Blu-ray disc either. Music has definitely gone digital and I believe that movies will do the same as well so I won't be investing in a disc player of any variety now. For me it just remains the question of which download service I will use.

[Jeff @ Jan 28th 2008 6:57AM]

Good luck with that. You're not going to find very many movies on-demand in high-def, on any service. And once you have a 1080p TV, 720p just isn't going to cut it anymore. (It's really a huge difference in resolution: 1280x720 vs. 1920x1080.)

You'll convert once you actually have your HDTV. Don't forget that Netflix rents Blu-Ray discs (and HD-DVD's for that matter, for now) if you see no sense in owning them.

[Snack @ Jan 28th 2008 7:23AM]

I hope Blu-Ray wins. Not because i prefer blu-ray but just to get this shitty war over with. Im sure iTunes movie rentals will take a big leap in the (well lets put that word agin) movie rentals industry. However Movie rentals and purchases are for the movies we thought about watching but never really pulled ourselves together to watch while we often prefer to get the box for our favorite DVD and all the extra content... also 720p still isn't full HD and the diffrence between SD and 720p is minimal.
People who got a HD tv at 38"+ will prefer to get the full expirence and that is where Blu-Ray comes in.

We will see a winner in 2008...

[eyurasian_destiny @ Jan 28th 2008 8:23AM]

720p IS HD
the observable difference between SD 480p and HD 720p is a lot
the observable difference between 720p and 1080p on a screen below 46" is not that great

Just felt the need to correct some people

Does HD Video a lot in his job

[Kelmon @ Jan 29th 2008 2:08AM]

@Jeff

I honestly don't think that luck will have anything much to do with it. Blu-ray will be preferred by the HD aficionados in much the same way that CDs are preferred by audiophiles. However, for me I honestly can't tell the difference between 720p and 1080p enough that having to wait for delivery of a disc is something I'm prepared to put up with - I just want to select a movie and watch it. In this respect Blu-ray is a non-starter and Netflix (should it be available) isn't a desirable option. On-Demand is the future and, almost, the present too.

While the HD library online isn't big at the moment I wouldn't bet against it being comprehensive by the end of the year. Since I don't yet own an HD television anyway this isn't much of a problem to begin with.

[Lethal Even Asleep @ Jan 29th 2008 6:18AM]

Digital Downloads...yar right....

BD offers Uncompressed audio!!!/commentary/special features.... Screw compression... If you have a Expensive audio system why get compressed digital downloads? Not untill downloading 50 gigs takes less than 5 min. Then maybe everyone will go ok...digital downloads is the future.

:D

[Demaar @ Jan 28th 2008 6:48AM]

As much as it saddens me to say, HD DVD price cuts have GOT to be a last ditch effort to clear out inventory while they still can. If they really think there's still a battle to be fought here, they're either pig headedly stubborn or deluded.

[Galley @ Jan 28th 2008 8:54AM]

Circuit City is already closing out all Toshiba HD DVD hardware.

[Marcus @ Jan 28th 2008 6:55AM]

Here in Germany the Saturn store offers to take in payment "old" HD DVD players with 150,- EUR, if you buy a new Sony Blu-ray player eg. the Sony BDP-S300. Means, only 349,- EUR with 8 blu-ray films for free. :)

[LondonConsultant @ Jan 28th 2008 6:56AM]

The HD-DVD, who living had no note,
when death approached, unlocked her silent throat.
Leaning her breast upon the reedy shore,
thus sang her first and last, and sang no more:
"Farewell, all joys! O death, come close mine eyes!
"More Blu-Ray than HD-DVD now live, more fools than wise."

[Marvin Quach @ Jan 28th 2008 7:31AM]

Wow... oddly enough, seeing this first thing in the morning is pretty enlightening!

[rumblerjon @ Jan 28th 2008 7:38AM]

A noble spirit embiggens the smallest man

[Bill @ Jan 28th 2008 7:55AM]

The Silver Swan, no? That was an amazing blast from the past - I sang a chamber music piece based on that poem more than a decade ago. Upmodded for unexpected nostalgia.

[Jeremy @ Jan 28th 2008 9:12AM]

@rumblerjon

I never heard the word embiggins until I started reading Engadget.

[Wulf @ Jan 28th 2008 9:29AM]

Many apologies, the above was intended as a response to Pigfister. For whatever reason the blog appended it to this response.

[tcc3 @ Jan 28th 2008 12:52PM]

Its a perfectly cromulent word.

[Wulf @ Jan 28th 2008 9:26AM]

You sir, are an idiot.

The link that you posted was from May of '06 and was a FUD freakout on HDMI, which was claimed at the time to be 'very limited installed base'. At that point, it was. If you'll read further on into the article you posted (Difficult or even painful for one such as you to comprehend anything further than a headline, I know...) you'll see that your own rhetoric even mentioned Sony AND Microsoft by name, backing the HDMI initiative.

I don't know about you, but I make a very middle-class wage, have next to no credit card debt and I have 7 HDMI devices in my abode so far. Including my LCD & Denon receiver.

Please, pull the tinfoil hat back down over your eyes and go spout your gibberish to the army of mice who are the only ones who believe in you.

[silverblackvoid @ Jan 28th 2008 7:37AM]

atlast sony is victorious! i bow to thee sony.

[andy @ Jan 28th 2008 7:44AM]

I bought HD DVD @ $150.00

I'll buy Blu-ray when it drops to $150.00

Market forces at work! Well, barely. Too bad the market has less to do with this than the recording industry. Too bad those studios decided Blu-ray because it has more restrictive DRM (region locked)

Proprietary Sony formats are always losers, whether or not they succeed in the market place, and those who sell out to Sony do so at the peril of their wallets. Will this be different? No way to tell. .