Gartner: Blu-ray to win in 2008, HD DVD price cuts are "useless resistance"
By Thomas Ricker 
posted Jan 28th 2008 5:46AM
posted Jan 28th 2008 5:46AM
Gartner, the fat lady of research firms, is singing HD DVD's swan song this morning. Hiroyuki Shimizu, Principal Research Analyst in Japan, says in Gartner's Semiconductor DQ Monday Report that, "Gartner believes that Toshiba's price-cutting may prolong HD DVD's life a little, but the limited line-up of film titles will inflict fatal damage on the format." He goes on to call the recent price cuts "useless resistance" in avoiding the inevitable. What's that, you coyly ask? According to Shimizu, "Gartner expects that, by the end of 2008, Blu-ray will be the winning format in the consumer market, and the war will be over." With 5 of the 7 major studios now backing Blu-ray exclusively, Gartner's certainty on the subject doesn't appear to be much of a stretch.
We are the borg. Lower your shields and surrender your vessels. We will add your biological and technological distinctiveness to our own.
resistance is futile
yes indeed, and the MPAA DRM advocates (sony, disney & Fox) jump for joy while everyone hands control of the hardware over to the MPAA with Blu-Ray only BD+, studios are allowed to run any code they wish to combat piracy! but they have yet to flick the switch on ICT (image constraint token)
http://www.boingboing.net/2006/05/23/hdmi-the-manchurian-.html
and we thought sony's xcp rootkit phone home DRM was bad!
The BPI Are: SONY, UNIVERSAL, WARNER GROUP, EMI.
The RIAA Soundexchange Are: SONY, UNIVERSAL, WARNER GROUP, EMI.
The MPAA Are: SONY, UNIVERSAL, WARNER GROUP, DISNEY, PARAMOUNT, FOX.
HDi will be assimilated into Profile 1.1
@Pigfister
Looking at your profile there, you have posted that exact same comment dozens of times on Engadget. We got it the first time, this place isn't a soap box.
http://www.blogsmith.com/profile/937447/
@boudu,
the internet is a soapbox- deal with it.
I don't know which is worse, the fact that he posted the same comment multiple times, or the fact that you actually keep track of it and even bothered to post a link.
Not a PERSONAL soapbox; where you have cut/paste long-ass remarks that you spam literally dozens of stories in. Also, replying to the first comment with irrelevant remarks just to be on the top of the page is beyond annoying. There are people with legitimate conversation below that get knocked down.
Boostjunkie, You don't need to keep track, you can look at people's previous post just by clicking on their username. You can also change your password BTW.
@Boudu
Sorry, could you bring me up to date on the different types of Soapboxes there are? I honestly wasn't aware there was more than one.
Perhaps the original poster could have modified his comment each time he posted it so that each was a unique snowflake immune to the criticisms of the easily irritable or the close minded.
God Damnit will people stop saying soap-box!
i believe that everyone should know exactly what they are getting into and you seem to want to instigate a s,ear campaign against me because i keep telling ppl this infomation that they need to here, what's your problem and btw ict has yet to be turned on 2010 is when your kit gets officially screwed by the MPAA!
This is funny considering that Star Trek is on HD-DVD and not on BRD.
@ boudu
stop what exactly, posting the truth of the pro DRM advocates in the MPAA or the fact the blu-ray only DRM BD+ is bad for the consumer as it gives the studios the right to do anything they wish to our hardware, or ict has been delayed at the will of sony m$ to allow all old, none future proof incompatible stock to be sold to consumers before they flick the switch?
i didn't mention the fact that the sony and fox lobby introduced a bill into the "spy act" that allows them to install any code they wish into our hardware without fear of litigation and we are not allowed to debug and notify the world about dubious, malicious, code anymore.
google "spy act only protects drm" and read the content
They already could run any code they wanted, BD has Java for that. BD+ makes no difference.
@ why not
they could but if it damaged your hardware they were liable since sony and fox lobby introduced the sections into the spy act they can now use any DRM that we are not allowed to debug and they are immune from prosecution. BD+ is the blu-ray only extra level of DRM that uses the java platform to run the code it was finalised for use in september last year.
http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/10/03/foxs-new-blu-ray-titles-with-bd-wont-playing-in-all-players/
FTA: Fox's new Blu-ray titles with BD+ won't play in all players
I want to become an analyst. They state the things that the public already knows.
And get paid a lot to do it!
Yep! I said the same thing weeks ago! How come Gartner gets quoted instead of me? Just cause I'm nobody? :D
they get payed for that prediction made months ago, then sold to their clients. They release it for free later to the media exactly when everybody knows it and nobody is willing to pay for the information
Didn't Gartner predict that OS/2 would rule the roost by 1992? Maybe it was 1993, I can't remember. All I know is that my apps aren't working.
I could not agree more. 2008 will be Blu (real) high def year!
The *real* winners in 2008? The people who sat out the format war.
. . . . and the people who bought Blu-ray.
Hatch, If you're an early adopter, you are always taking a risk. It's a coin toss game. Blu Ray may have been the superior format, but all it would have taken is slightly deeper pockets by Toshiba / MS and it could have gone the other way.
Only thing early adopters got were overpriced players and a obsolete (I'm sorry "incomplete") format. Then again, if people are really all that happy to send companies $400-$1000 to pay for hardware that is planned to be out of date or isn't feature complete, its a free country.
That said, the only thing worse than buying blue would be to buy red.
hey, some of us coughed up 600 for a PS3 with a blu ray drive... and full backwards compatibility :D
but really, apart from the PS3, the whole multiple profile thing is a killer.
Who really sat out of the Format War?
Anyone who purchased a PS3 automatically became entrenched on the side of Blu Ray.
The PS3 is where the Blu Ray -HDDVD war was won. The problem was, Microsoft didn't install an HDDVD drive in the XBOX360 Premium or Elite when they did their revision. By leaving the HDDVD drive an expensive add-on, they basically killed HDDVD. Sony's gamble paid off.
Flashpoint, here's the choice MS faced:
HD DVD standard on Xbox 360 - win format war, lose console war (due to high cost)
HD DVD not standard on Xbox 360 - lose format war, win console war (excluding Wii, Microsoft had been top for well over a year)
Nice. Now it's time for me to go and find the best Blu-ray writer in the market for my HTPC. Kick a**! :)
I think even Toshiba know the end is in sight. It wouldn't surprise me if they're clearing stock from their channels (assisted with firesales from Amazon and probably others) before making the announcement. The sooner it comes the better for everyone, including Toshiba. They might even be able to pull out a Blu Ray / HD DVD hybrid player in time for the holiday season if they hurry.
As far as I am concerned both formats are losers - I plan on going with a digital download service when we eventually get an HD television. I'm not that interested in owning movie discs and an on-demand service at 720p is worth more to me than having to obtain a disc for 1080p. In the same way as I'm not that interested in extras on DVDs today I can't see myself being interested in more extras on a Blu-ray disc either. Music has definitely gone digital and I believe that movies will do the same as well so I won't be investing in a disc player of any variety now. For me it just remains the question of which download service I will use.
Good luck with that. You're not going to find very many movies on-demand in high-def, on any service. And once you have a 1080p TV, 720p just isn't going to cut it anymore. (It's really a huge difference in resolution: 1280x720 vs. 1920x1080.)
You'll convert once you actually have your HDTV. Don't forget that Netflix rents Blu-Ray discs (and HD-DVD's for that matter, for now) if you see no sense in owning them.
I hope Blu-Ray wins. Not because i prefer blu-ray but just to get this shitty war over with. Im sure iTunes movie rentals will take a big leap in the (well lets put that word agin) movie rentals industry. However Movie rentals and purchases are for the movies we thought about watching but never really pulled ourselves together to watch while we often prefer to get the box for our favorite DVD and all the extra content... also 720p still isn't full HD and the diffrence between SD and 720p is minimal.
People who got a HD tv at 38"+ will prefer to get the full expirence and that is where Blu-Ray comes in.
We will see a winner in 2008...
720p IS HD
the observable difference between SD 480p and HD 720p is a lot
the observable difference between 720p and 1080p on a screen below 46" is not that great
Just felt the need to correct some people
Does HD Video a lot in his job
@Jeff
I honestly don't think that luck will have anything much to do with it. Blu-ray will be preferred by the HD aficionados in much the same way that CDs are preferred by audiophiles. However, for me I honestly can't tell the difference between 720p and 1080p enough that having to wait for delivery of a disc is something I'm prepared to put up with - I just want to select a movie and watch it. In this respect Blu-ray is a non-starter and Netflix (should it be available) isn't a desirable option. On-Demand is the future and, almost, the present too.
While the HD library online isn't big at the moment I wouldn't bet against it being comprehensive by the end of the year. Since I don't yet own an HD television anyway this isn't much of a problem to begin with.
Digital Downloads...yar right....
BD offers Uncompressed audio!!!/commentary/special features.... Screw compression... If you have a Expensive audio system why get compressed digital downloads? Not untill downloading 50 gigs takes less than 5 min. Then maybe everyone will go ok...digital downloads is the future.
:D
As much as it saddens me to say, HD DVD price cuts have GOT to be a last ditch effort to clear out inventory while they still can. If they really think there's still a battle to be fought here, they're either pig headedly stubborn or deluded.
Circuit City is already closing out all Toshiba HD DVD hardware.
Here in Germany the Saturn store offers to take in payment "old" HD DVD players with 150,- EUR, if you buy a new Sony Blu-ray player eg. the Sony BDP-S300. Means, only 349,- EUR with 8 blu-ray films for free. :)
The HD-DVD, who living had no note,
when death approached, unlocked her silent throat.
Leaning her breast upon the reedy shore,
thus sang her first and last, and sang no more:
"Farewell, all joys! O death, come close mine eyes!
"More Blu-Ray than HD-DVD now live, more fools than wise."
Wow... oddly enough, seeing this first thing in the morning is pretty enlightening!
A noble spirit embiggens the smallest man
The Silver Swan, no? That was an amazing blast from the past - I sang a chamber music piece based on that poem more than a decade ago. Upmodded for unexpected nostalgia.
@rumblerjon
I never heard the word embiggins until I started reading Engadget.
Many apologies, the above was intended as a response to Pigfister. For whatever reason the blog appended it to this response.
Its a perfectly cromulent word.
You sir, are an idiot.
The link that you posted was from May of '06 and was a FUD freakout on HDMI, which was claimed at the time to be 'very limited installed base'. At that point, it was. If you'll read further on into the article you posted (Difficult or even painful for one such as you to comprehend anything further than a headline, I know...) you'll see that your own rhetoric even mentioned Sony AND Microsoft by name, backing the HDMI initiative.
I don't know about you, but I make a very middle-class wage, have next to no credit card debt and I have 7 HDMI devices in my abode so far. Including my LCD & Denon receiver.
Please, pull the tinfoil hat back down over your eyes and go spout your gibberish to the army of mice who are the only ones who believe in you.
atlast sony is victorious! i bow to thee sony.
I bought HD DVD @ $150.00
I'll buy Blu-ray when it drops to $150.00
Market forces at work! Well, barely. Too bad the market has less to do with this than the recording industry. Too bad those studios decided Blu-ray because it has more restrictive DRM (region locked)
Proprietary Sony formats are always losers, whether or not they succeed in the market place, and those who sell out to Sony do so at the peril of their wallets. Will this be different? No way to tell. .
"are always losers"
While I agree they have done some stupid stuff (rootkit, UMD, memory stick, etc), they have had a HUGE impact on the CE industry in a good way. Idiots like you don't give them any credit for all the good things they've invented.
1) 3.5" floppy disk
2) First portable music player
3) Compact Disc (CD)
4) S/PDIF - optical digital audio format
5) PS1 / PS2 / PS3
Just want to correct a couple of things heres! I hate sonu but they have made some good things for us, but it was Phillips who created the cd and when it comes to spdif, it was again phillips who invented it but marketed it with sony spdif (sony/phillips digital interface format)
BD players will hit $150 in the PS3 FIRST.........
a stand alone BD player MAY hit that price point around 2010.......
some people fail to realize that DVD players didnt really hit below $150 until the PS2 Launched.......
hell there were STILL DVD players that did nothing more than 480p for $100 like 3 years ago........
I hate Sony's tactics as much as the next guy but how is Blu-ray "prorietary"? Its just a standard and is no more proprietary than the DVD standard (or HD-DVD for that matter).
@minimalist,
i'm another guy who hates Sony's tactics. i view it as proprietary because they seem to be the only one at the forefront of this war, bumping heads with Toshiba. Sony pimps the Blu-ray format so hard and furiously, yet, i've never seen any other company in the BDA push their format. basically, it seems like a proprietary format because they're the only ones doing anything about it.
Current 18 board members of the BDA(as of January 2008) are:
* Apple Inc.
* Dell Inc.
* Hewlett-Packard Company
* Hitachi, Ltd.
* LG Electronics
* Mitsubishi Electric
* Panasonic (Matsushita Electric)
* Pioneer Corporation
* Royal Philips Electronics
* Samsung Electronics
* Sharp Corporation
* Sony Corporation
* Sun Microsystems
* TDK Corporation
* Thomson SA
* Twentieth Century Fox
* Walt Disney Motion Pictures Group / Buena Vista Home Entertainment
* Warner Home Video Inc.
Out of this list...who else really pushes the format? Maybe Fox a little, but it's not treated as their own. Sony makes it the format their own via their sycophantic tactics and undying quest to win at least one large-scale format war.
@minimalist,
i'd also like to add that Sony has a lot more riding on this w/ the integration of a BD player into their PS3. if BD were to fail, PS3 would have a lot less marketability. sure, you can get BD players cheaper than a PS3 now, but for the past year, people have purchased PS3's solely for their BD-playing capabilities.
Andy, Do you really think a Blu Ray player costs $200 more to make than an HD DVD player? Of course they don't. The production costs are fairly comparable and therefore so should the retail prices. So why is HD DVD so cheap? Here's a clue - it has nothing to do with "market forces" as you say. Instead, Toshiba used the only weapon at their disposal to capture an early lead - subsidizing the cost. They are the inventor and virtually the sole manufacturer of equipment so they can slash prices. Anyway this tactic failed (BD players still sold more even without looking at PS3 sales) and the reason you're now seeing some *really* cheap HD DVD players is because they're all clearance sales. Toshiba and retailers are clawing back as little as they can get from the format before pulling the plug. Anyway I expect you'll see sub $200 BD players this year.
Actually, if Bluray had failed, the PS3 would still have games released on BD, just like how they still release games on the PSP with UMD.
All this talk about proprietary formats and DRM is pretty interesting. I'm guessing that if you ever worked in some sort of media industry, you would support it. Even if you wrote software, say you spent 3 months writing this killer-app, and tried to sell it, and your aim is to try to make as much money as possible from it. You would be crazy if you tried to release it without some sort of DRM (license key activation, or whatever method) to protect your income.
Now, think about what happened if you tried to write a book and publish it. If someone copied that book and put it on bit torrent. Then you see that you have only sold 500 copies of the book, but 20,000 copies were downloaded. Wouldn't you get upset?
How about if you spent over 100 million dollars to produce an epic movie, but could not realize your revenues because of piracy?
It would be nice to be able to live in a DRM free world. I just can't see how movie and music studios can secure revenue for their industry without DRM.
This can only be good news for the consumer. Less confusion, more confidence and ultimately money saving!e
I think this is a disaster to be honest. I could well be wrong but HD-DVD seemed to be attempting to provide a solution that was backwards compatable and consumer friendly.
A Sony monopoloy on anything must be the worst thing ever down the line. In the end that's Sonys' business strategy on just about anything. ie: corner the market and kill it. Lucky for us they can also be incompetent (memory sticks, psp movie discs etc etc)
However, as Microsoft has pointed out, hard copies may well be an irrelevance in a few years. So the real winners are those who didnt and don't intend to buy any format.
Blu-ray is not a "Sony monopoly" any more than HD-DVD is a "Toshiba monopoly." Blu-ray players are made by at least 8 or 9 different electronics companies already. When we have a sing;e standardized format and more people buy there will be even more companies that sell them.
Claiming that Sony has a monopoly with blue ray players is like saying Fraunhofer (the company that licenses mp3 technology) has a monopoly on digital music players.
An industry standard is not the same as a monopoly.
How is less competition good for the customer? You think Sony (or Toshiba for that matter) would be giving you 5+ free movies with their players if they were the only one in the HD Disc market? Would they be as motivated to lower the player prices or give them away free with LCD purchase? Format wars are a pain the ass, yes, but without competition we all lose out. As "andy" indicated, Toshiba has now set his price expectations for Blu-Ray players. Sony would certainly be less inclined to reach that price with no competition.
So tell me, richard knights, who has the monopoly on DVDs, then?
A unified standard is better than competing standards. Competition will come from the manufacturers. The format war drove prices down some, yes, but it also ends up either screwing early adopters or forcing people to buy 2 different players, costing them even more money. Now, the prices will go down because all the different manufacturers will be competing to have the best/cheapest player.
Now that manufacturers will be able to fully get behind the Blu-Ray standard, you'll start to see a steady price drop. This coming from a person who was marginally in the HD-DVD camp. But I can see the writing on the wall, and I'm no fool to romanticize over a media format.
@richard, EdgeOne:
So tired of people who clearly know nothing about economics posting about how HD DVD's demise is "bad for the consumer" because of "less competition." Please take one econ class (preferably one that deals with CE competition). PLEASE.
HD-DVD isn't backwards compatible. You can't play HD-DVDs in DVD players. You can't make HD-DVDs on a DVD production line (the myths about this come from back when HD-DVD was planning on using a chirped red laser, not the blue one they ended up using).
How is a standard backed by only one company better for the consumer than one backed by many?
[oops, no extra 'e' intended...]
What's really telling, is that the studios (Universal and Paramount) aren't pumping out their catalog in HD DVD. If Universal and Paramount got serious and unleashed their catalog on HD, that would give it more a boost than the price cuts or any super bowl commercial. Barring that...
I'm sure in their contracts they only have to release so many per month......
so that would be why they havent done it yet.........
not to mention Spielberg & George Lucas havent released their Hits yet......
why??
they were waiting out the war themselves........
Smart really........
Cant wait to get Star Wars, E.T., Indiana Jones, Jurrasic Park & the rest on BD..........CHURCH.......
@The Aggie CEO, recall how long it took for Lucas, Spielberg etc. to support DVD too. Whether Blu Ray wins or not, I expect most studios are going to wait for the market to grow before releasing their crown jewels.
k, lets star spitting out those affordable Blu-ray recordable drives for my PC.
Come on Lite-on, I know you want put your super cheap hardware in my system.
I believe at this point Universal and Paramount will stay HD-DVD. I don't think they have anything to lose by doing so. Most sales are regular dvd and because a film is unique if or when they switch to Blu-ray they will just re-release the title on Blu-ray.
Sadly enough they will probably make even more money do it that way.
r3loaded, MS could have stuck an HD DVD player in the "Elite" model. It would have meant the "Elite" actually justified its name rather than just being black and having a larger HDD. I'm also certain that if Warner hadn't pissed on Toshiba's parade that we would have seen a 360 with integrated HD DVD launched at CES but with Toshiba branding. Microsoft appears to support HD DVD format but seems allergic to getting too close in case it gets dragged down with it. Most likely MS saw supporting it as little more than a way to stall the HD physical format adoption while VOD became more viable.
Sweet, now I can snatch up Star Trek and Heroes in HD for rock-bottom prices!
I'm no HD-DVD fanboy, but to be fair, there are still plenty of solid HD-DVD exclusive releases coming up, like American Gangster, Beowulf, Into the Wild, Elizabeth the Golden Age (not one I liked, but a big budget film nevertheless) and Bee Movie (ditto)... Admitedly that isn't enough to withstand the Blu-Ray consortium's soon to be exclusive Harry Potter and others but... I don't think the Blu victory is inevitable quite yet, although very close to being so. Let me know if Universal or Paramount go neutral though. Oh, and to do the format justice (I own both but lean Blu) I think the interactivity and interface is more pleasant to use on HD-DVD... I was watching the original 'Elizabeth' last night and the opening screen is really responsive, it's easy to access the extras, and when you pause you get a red progress bar appearing, as well as a 'Universal' logo screensaver after a while. Much more user-friendly experience than the Blu-Ray films I've been watching lately, and with the same visual and audio quality. Plus, it's region free (although since I own a U.S. PS3 and a U.K. BD player it doesn't matter as much now).
Still, I want a single format and the fastest way to achieve that is the Blu-Ray path ;)
Unless prices drop even BR will be stuck at adoption rates similar to Laserdisc.
$199 or less is the mass-market price point.
>>I don't know which is worse, the fact that he posted the same comment multiple times, or the fact that you actually keep track of it and even bothered to post a link.
I hate to reply to this, being that in the above comment I wanted to point out how annoying irrelevant conversation is on people replying to the first post is. But you can just click the user-name to see all that person's comments (which is the link I posted). For instance, just clicking "Pigfister" brings up all his posts, same goes for yours and mine. If you look at his profile you will see how many times he has posted this on Engadget.
annoying, irrelevent conversations happening on the internet! call the waaaambulance.
Sooooo are the current catalog of HDDVD movies going to be re-released on BD?
Or is my only chance at Heroes Volume 1 is HDDVD?
Ya never know, just when you think HD-DVD is going to lose, meteorites could hit all the major movie studios supporting BD, leaving only Universal and Paramount, thus completely reversing the format war.
It could happen. Yeah. Ask an astonomer.
Of course, afterwards you might want to consult a statistician for the probability of such an event.
Antitrust....
@Boudu
Sorry, could you bring me up to date on the different types of Soapboxes there are? I honestly wasn't aware there was more than one.
Perhaps the original poster could have modified his comment each time he posted it so that each was a unique snowflake immune to the criticisms of the easily irritable or the close minded.
I just wish the war could have gone on a bit longer to drive Blu-Ray prices down a bit further.
But as a longtime HD-DVD defender I bought a PS3 over the weekend to use as a Blu-Ray player.
The war may not be over for everyone else, but it is for me. Sorry, HD-DVD. :(
A question that came to mind was: "Are consumers controlling what the manufacturer's make or are the manufactures controlling what the consumers buy?:
The consumers and manufacturers have a conflict of interest IF this new medium is a long term investment. Sure, consumers want the goodies and have it backwards compatible but the studios don't make money off of backwards compatible. They would rather have the non-Early adopters (these are your simplified for the consumer people) to start recollecting/restocking the movie shelf with the newer tech for a good ten years.
records,tape,VHs,cd,DVD all have had long stints on the market but eventually the companies stop making as much money and people quit buying (in favor of copying or new media)
The way data storage is today, i wonder if all this hoopla over blue-ray / HD-DVD isn't just a glorified money grab (yeah not just a plain one) that will go the way of Laser disc (remember those 12 inch,cd-lookin things ) Just can't wait for everything to get Digitally remastered again.
How long do you think it will take Microsoft to create a Blu-Ray addon?
@ Jeremy:
I don't know why not, it's a perfectly cromulent word.
Rufus
toshiba could win here if they only released cheap HDDVD writers for pc, i would love to use cheap blank hddvds to burn 30 gigabytes on a disc and pop it into a hddvd player or 360s addon and have all episodes from a show in a SINGLE disc. Backing up would be an easy task. now ... WHERE are the cheap hd-dvd burners? since hd-dvd media is manufactured from current factories shouldnt they be way cheaper than their bluray counterparts? COME ON TOSHIBA wake up - engadget needs to run a story on this, BOTH FORMATS can win if consumers are the focus and multi bluray+hddvd players hit the market.
Wasn't the point of the whole new format was so we could get DTS MA and or Dolby HD and 1080p?
Why would I buy any new format DVD when they still are playing the crap release version.
When they release most of the movies I want in 1080p, DTS MA and EXTENDED versions - I'll be happy to buy the new DVDs again even though I have them on regular DVD. I double dipped too many times on regular DVDs buying a movie only to get the "ultimate edition a year later with a DTS sound track and then a year later they'd have the directors cut or extended version.
Fool me once - shame on me - fool me twice shame on you.
The Studios can bite me until they stop releasing the good versions of DVD. Yes, Universal, Sony, Paramount, Warner Brothers- that is right, I got a subscription with Netflix and am making copies of your standard release DVDs until you give me a reason to actually BUY the movies on BR or HD. Suck it long and suck it hard because most other movie fans I know are doing the exact same thing.
from the read link (last paragraph):
"An Xbox 360 booth at the game show displayed the HD DVD logo and showed movies and games for the format, but a Microsoft spokesman could not be reached for comment on the total number of games already published in the format. "
Uh, as far as I know, the total number of XBOX 360 games published in HD-DVD is exactly... ZERO!
The HD-DVD external drive has thus far only been used for watching HD-DVDs on your XBOX 360. The maximum capacity for an XBOX 360 game is exactly the same as the XBOX: 8.5 GB on a dual-layer DVD-R (I don't think they use DVD+R, but if they did, capacity would be bumped up to 17.1 GB, a far cry from HD-DVD's capacity of 30 GB)
Anyways, it seems clear that despite releasing an external HD-DVD drive, Microsoft took a "wait and see" approach. I predict they will eventually be forced to offer a Blu-Ray external drive, or suffer the consequences of publishing their games in antiquated DVD format while Sony pushes ahead with 50 GB games more capable of offering rich high-definition content.
Once the boat tips, it's pretty much over. look what happened to VHS vs beta, one format is likely to win.
Well, It all comes down to this. How long do you think this format will last? Excerpt from wikipedia. "DVD-Video is a standard for storing video content on DVD media. In the U.S., weekly DVD-Video rentals first out-numbered weekly VHS cassette rentals in June 2003, illustrating the rapid adoption rate of the technology in the marketplace." It is now 2008. A 5 year run is sad. VHS is still used to this day in some house holds. Now, when BD-RE was announced I thought, Great! More storage is always awesome. But then I stopped to think, Wait a minute. Didn't the DVD format JUST get into mainstream? What the **** happened? Now, If I follow the logic of the industry...... Lets just say your going to start pissing off customers. Unlike the geeks among us, Grandma's don't like having to upgrade. If you buy a format player, you except a rather long shelf life. Just because you can, doesn't mean you should.
DVD has been around since 1999 or so, not 2003.
Anyway, Blu Ray and HD DVD players are backwards compatible with DVD. So it's not an either / or choice like VHS vs DVD. You can mix and match as you see fit. I think this means that Blu Ray adoption rates will be far faster than DVD was simply because there is no need for people to throw away their existing collection.
So, Sony will get to resell Blu players over and over again. Many players today are BR V1.0, V1.1 is already out for more $$$, and V2.0 with ethernet (like HD-DVD already has) is coming soon. I'll wait for V2.0 to come out with sub $200 pricing. Probably will have to drive to Dallas to get one from Fry's...
It is funny that Gartner says it doesn't matter, but NPD says that the new HD-DVD campaign is really working:
http://www.techconsumer.com/2008/01/28/could-hd-dvd-make-a-comeback-pricing-now-close-to-dvd/
That article doesn't say that at all. It says that low HD-DVD prices "should" drive demand. It doesn't say that it is driving demand.
It also says that the PS3 neither comes with a remote nor can use one. Which is wrong.
Great article.
The big problem with BluRay "winning" is that to publish a movie requires some serious AACS fees, about $4700 last time I checked. $3000 is a one time for the publisher, but for the little guys who only make a film a year, that's a huge fee. So if you make a niche production that runs about a thousand copies that's $4.70 just in licensing. Manufacturing is more expensive on BD, and there are enforced minimum runs of 2500 units. So if you only need a thousand copies, you're SOL on BD.
Good, now that Blu-Ray has won the physical format war...
The digital download vs physical format war begins. It is the beginning of the end for Bluray and the physical format in general but it will take a little while longer. I own a PS3 and an XBOX 360 and have yet to buy a single $35 Blu-ray disc though I have purchased several HD movies from XBOX Live.
http://www.displaysearch.com/cps/rde/xchg/SID-0A424DE8-6CC16CD8/displaysearch/hs.xsl/2007_next_gen_dvd_market_data_and_insights.asp
huh, similar blue-ray is only "winner" in some tech geeks' minds.
waiting for blue-ray fanatics official reply
Blu-Ray DVDs backed by retailerBlu-Ray DVDs backed by retailer
A high street retailer has given its backing to one of the two competing next generation DVD formats.
Woolworths will stock only Blu-Ray discs and drop rival HD-DVDs from its stores.
The chain will continue to sell HD-DVDs via its website but they will disappear from Woolworths' shop shelves after being out-sold at the chain 10 to one by Blu-Ray discs over Christmas.
Woolworths will introduce a Blu-Ray DVD chart in all its 820 stores from March, by which time it will only sell HD-DVDs online.
The move is the latest in a fierce format war between the two next generation DVDs. Electronics firms Samsung and Panasonic launched their first Blu-Ray players in autumn 2006.
Toshiba then launched its own next generation DVD player compatible only with HD-DVD discs.
Woolworths DVD buyer Steven McGunigel said the PlayStation 3 is the main reason for Blu-Ray's popularity at the chain. More than 750,000 UK homes can use their PS3 consoles to play Blu-Ray discs, he said.
"There is nowhere near that number of HD-DVD players around," Mr McGunigel said.
"Switching to Blu-Ray only will provide one clear offer to customers in the format they want to watch high definition movies in."
Both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD have better audio and video quality than standard DVDs, and more storage capacity. It is expected that one of the formats will rise to dominance while the other will become obsolete.
See original link at
http://tech.uk.msn.com/news/article.aspx?cp-documentid=7381009
I do not own a dvd player blu or otherwise I have directv I simply set the box to the shows, movies i want to watch .If there is something good at the cinema I go with friends and watch it.I actually have lots of dvd's guess what have not watched them in over a year so when the dvd player went bad I just decided not to get another one.The computer hooks up to the tv there is online tv.Consumers are for some strange reason looking out for these companies instead of thinking do I really need it?
How often do you really watch your dvd's if you spend a lot of time online on the computer and have cable tv or whatever form of tv you have when will you find the time for bluray .You are just making these companies richer and they are selling you what they want to sell you .hddvd is cheaper but the more expensive format is going to win the one with the most control over what you do with it is going to win .Are you actually happy about that?