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Viewed in perspective, HDM growth outpacing DVD

Steven Kim

There are always at least three sides to format war discussions: red, blue and neither. In the "neither" camp, it's often cited that the total numbers in HDM are so small compared to, say, DVD that HDM just doesn't matter. But DVD has a ten-year head start on HDM, so it's not really a fair comparison. When viewing growth since inception, aggressive promotions in Q4 2007 actually put HDM's growth ahead of DVD's. We already got a hint of this at the BDA press conference, where a graph showed that HDM is in a similar growth trend to DVD and VHS, but it bears repeating -- in the big picture, HDM is doing just fine. But whatever your "side" in the war, you have to admit that HDM growth has been built upon two formats. So the question becomes what happens to growth if one format disappears versus both sides continuing on? We think mainstream adoption will require one format to emerge and the increased volume will outweigh any negative backlash from adopters of the losing format; what about you?

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