Those pesky analysts are at it again, and this time it's serious: Evan Wilson of Pacific Crest Securities says we can expect a sequel to the
Wii in 2010, to be followed by a new
Xbox later that year. Obviously it's something on the minds of all three of the gaming hardware giants -- in fact,
Gizmondo probably has 2010 in its sights as well -- but there's really no telling at this point how accurate this rumor is. What we have heard are some conjectures before now that Nintendo has a shorter life cycle in mind for its graphics-impaired Wii. Also, Microsoft obviously made a huge bet this generation on hitting a year before the competition, and has done alright for itself in the process, so Microsoft might be looking for a repeat. There's no rumor yet on Sony's PS4 plans, but while the company has its hands full at the moment with its purported 2008 comeback, we're sure they're keeping this all in mind. Wilson also predicts a new Nintendo DS and PSP in 2010, meaning any way you slice it you're going need a second mortgage.
[Via
Joystiq]
posted Feb 14th 2008 6:10PM
I believe the whole XBOX refresh thingy, but not the Wii. It's very unlikely that the Wii will be the first to have a replacement even though it was the last in this generation.
Plus, people still have a hard time looking for Wiis today and the whole media saying good things about physical activity from Wii is going to keep it alive for a while back.
So in conclusion, Wii will not play Doom.
I totally agree, but when the next-gen Wii will rise up, I guess it will have the same specs as a current Xbox360.
Another prediction, Microsoft will definitly be earlier then Sony with launching there new Console AND wil use a blu-ray drive.
Wii 2 in 2010? Does that mean I can expect to find a Wii 1 in stock by then as well?
Which means that the PS3, XB360 and Wii will be phased out and all the goodies are out for it. Which also means I will upgrade from the PS2 because the prices are real cheep. (mis-spelling intended)
Advantage of late adopters: All the good games are out, all for less. :)
What are you talking about I see Wii's everywhere. Do you live in a small town? Maybe that's why, it's supply and demand. If no one lives there why invest there.
Jamesology, please tell us where you see "Wii's everywhere." Yes, I'm calling your bluff!
http://www.xpbargains.com/wii_locator.php
http://wiitracker.com
If you live anywhere near New York City, go to the Nintendo World Store in Rockefeller Center, you can literally always get a Wii there.
Yeah IDK why ecery one is saying you can't find a Wii I live in upstate NY and there is at least one Wii in every department store (wally world/ target/ bestbuy ect.) around. Look alittle beyond your front porch and you should find one/two... dozen.
lol. very true, why release a new console when the first isn't slowing down sales to even be in stock at stores?
an Xbox 720 or something would be sweet. I'm getting a semi just thinking about Halo 4 or Mass Effect 2 on a next-next gen console.
Shame Mass Effect is a 'this-gen' (it's been this gen for two years now, not next) trilogy then...
I will buy 3 if they call it "Sir Xbox the Third."
They can do what they please, but I'm not buying one until I can use it to do what I please.
That means homebrew.
It'll be a PS3 or Wii for me, if anything.
"this is the end to this story arc" = no halo 4.
i've been a halo fan since xbconnect and halo 1 were the only thing to play, and if they don't milk the cash cow that is the halo series, shame on them. more halo please.
(though i have moved on to COD4 where the little 7 year olds have been replaced with some british/french people making fun of the twin towers)
Pssh there is no way Microsoft would have spent how ever many billion(s) of dollars to fix the red ring of death if they were going to replace it with a new system in a few years anyway.
This would be the equivalent of Microsoft providing useful and new features to Vista while they are set to launch windows 7 in 2 years. That is just no going to happen.
I SEE WHAT YOU DID THERE.
Can we add "I see what you did there" to "will it play doom" and "will it blend" to the list of stupid over used comments on blogs yet? Add in "Wow, just wow" as well.
Sorry, but no. That one still has laugh value. For now.
MS replaced the original xbox within 5 yrs.. and they will do the same with 360.
MS has more money then Nintendo and Sony combined.
The Xbox didnt make them any money, and the Xbox 360 is alittle mainly because it leads all new consoles in games per console ( over 7 games per console, compared to 5 for Wii, and 3 for PS3 ) .. MS sees Xbox1, and Xbox 360 as stepping stones to keep building up fan base which they have done a good job of tripling fanbase since xbox1..
They spent 2 billion fixing 360's to let people know they are behind their products.. this has nothing to do with how long current 360 will be out and everything to do with confidence in future Xbox's and customers confidence that no matter what happeneds they'll be covered..
The Wii has taken off in terms of system sales, but not really in terms of software. I don't think Nintendo will have set any timetable for its replacement, there's a lot of money to be made from it yet.
As for the 360, that's more believable I suppose; I imagine system sales will only really go down from here on in, while software will rise. It's entering its most profitable period, but it can only remain that buoyant for so long.
Does it really need to have good 3rd party support?
Wii is making Nintendo $100 for each sale. If you do that math, I think it was around $80m they were making each month. That's more than enough for Nintendo to not have to worry about 3rd party support.
I wasn't talking about third party sales, I was just talking sales. The Wii doesn't have a very good attach rate- yet.
I wonder if Sony is going to stick to their original plan to keep the PS3 around 10 years before the next one.
If they want to make anything like the same profit they did on the PS2 for it, they'll have to.
Good question. But, the thing to also keep in mind is that Blu-ray and the PS3 are attached to the same umbilical cord. Since the disc format for the games are Blu-ray, Sony would have to continue the same strategy. Unless they plan to switch their disc format to DVD discs. But, I don't see that happening. Sony took a big chance, and financial hit, financing the PS3 with Blu-ray playback capabilities. So, they'd make sure to release the console for as long as it stays profitable. Just take a look at the PS2. It still brings money to Sony. The way the technology is moving along these days, I think the PS3, as we know it today, may have a 5-7 years life span.
I was thinking that there's no way Sony could participate in this next gen if it's around 2010. Curious as to how different the Wii 2.0 will be since Nintendo has never placed too much weight on graphics; if they can make it as innovative as the first Wii they'll make some serious bank.
Hopefully by the third generation of modern consoles the three biggies will have learned from mistakes and make massive improvements.
PS3 hasn't even hit its stride. They got so far ahead of themselves and made a console so advanced that it tanked in the beginning. If it weren't for it being a subsidized blu-ray player, it would not have sold. But in the next year, the PS3 should make some big steps to catch up to the 360 in terms of popularity. The big obstacle is the apparent difficulty in making a game for this graphics-intensive console.
Quite a unique interpretation you have there.
Nobody ever said it would be around 10 years *before* the next Playstation is released, just that it would be around 10 years. How long has the PS2 been around? Did that stop them selling PS3s at the same time? No.
'Graphics intensive'
Interesting. So you're suggesting games are getting delayed to take advantage of the PS3's extra power? I don't think many games get pushed back because the developer goes "I think we could get a bit more out of this thing, give us another 6 months" and then the publisher goes "Oh-kay!" or something.
No, games get delayed because they're not of a releasable quality. Framerate issues, crashes, glitches, anything like that. Not because they aren't quite as pretty as they could be.
I remember when Microsoft announced the Xbox 360. They said they were going to focus on games this time around. They did just that and it's paid off. They went from being the underdog to the leader. (Excluding Wii)
That's not bad considering the name recognition Playstation enjoyed.
I only have 1 thing to say about the "Power" of the PS3. They are only as powerful as their graphics card. Don't you remember? They have one of those because the "Cell" just didn't work out.
"Curious as to how different the Wii 2.0 will be since Nintendo has never placed too much weight on graphics;"
They always placed emphasis on graphics (GC>PS2 64>PS1) but changed their minds when hardcore gamers screwed them over. So now it's Wii
Maybe it'll be called the WiiSquared...or...the WiiWii...
..just a thought..
Or the Wiii.
Or if its the second Wii, it would be the Yuu
or the Wiiii
Nah, we all know it's the Puu =)
Uus
"Yuu would like to play."
"No I wouldn't..."
They better not rename the system Xbox The Third. That will suck greatly. I don't think they can top Xbox 360 and with all the extra names they came up with Elite, Arcade, etc. They are really hurting themselves in the future.
JAmerican
There's these magical "marketing departments" that spend 8+ hours every day worrying about things just like this, all so you don't have to.
@ Andrew
Lol. Too true. I saw an interview with the sound guy working on the Vista intro sound. He went through 178 hours of music to find something perfect.
There is thorough and there is insane.
I agree. I hate the '360' part of the Xbox 360 when it came out, but now i have warmed to it. i actually prefer companies like Nintendo and (maybe) Microsoft because the names of their consoles are different. Nobody knows what the next Wii could be called. (Nintendo 64, GameCube, Wii -- No Correlation) and Xbox could be the same. i just hope it isn't called the Xbox 3 or Xbox 720.
I know I'll get low ranked for this but, can anyone guess what Sony's new console will be called in 2026? Yes! the Playstation 8! how inventive.
I'm not buying anything else from microsoft with the word console stamped on it until they make XBL more reliable.
Sans those couple of days after Christmas, it's been very reliable the last couple of years.
@Nate
wow, i bet you dont even own XBL. sure, it was inconvenient when it was down for those 2+ weeks, but have you noticed that there is practically NO downtime before then? that in itself is astonishing. i, personally, enjoyed filling up that time with mass effect and GOING OUTSIDE. its not going to kill you to not play online for 2 weeks, it probably was one of the worst times of the year for it, but i actually expect downtimes like this more often.
@kamandriat
I do have XBL you douche, why else would I complain? And if it was free, like your mom, i wouldn't mind.
Try downloading an HD movie, only a few gigs; it takes hours.
LMAO he said your mom was free XD
@Nate....
You do realize that the speed at which you download an HD movie is going to depend on the speed of your internet connection, and has very little to do with Xbox live, right? I'm pretty sure it's your internet connection that's at fault, because I've been downloading HD movies off of Live since January, and it rarely takes more than ten or fifteen minutes (probably because I'm on a college network). Clearly the choke point isn't XBL, it's your connection. Not something you can blame Microsoft for.
@Daman
Thanks for the amazing insight that my connection might be a bottleneck. You must work for someone awesome like Verizon or Cisco to come up with a theory like that.
I'm getting betwee 500k and 1 mbit/sec off of my cable line - not bad. I'm also a network engineer, moron. The smallest thing I ever built was for 35,000 users. The biggest I ever worked on was for 2 million.
I haven't downloaded anything lately, maybe they have improved the available bandwidth since then. This post is getting old after all.
Oh, and I hope they don't change the Wiimote. It's such a good control device, I've got a fair few. I don't want to have to start using something else in five years.
You are going to be disappointed. Look at nintendo's controller history. They completely change the controller with every console.
I know there's no precedent, but I don't see how they could really improve on the Wiimote tbh. At least to the degree that everyone will be fine shelling out for new ones.
well with the new advances in tech the could always bring back the power glove...hmmm no thats just stupid
well considering the upgrade they did with the DS to DS Lite I expect when sales finally start breaking-even they might consider releasing an update like with DVD?
Incidentally, they've been making a profit from day one.
I thought Sony had said a year or two ago they were already working on the PS4? In fact didn't Engadget report it?
Yup here we go from 2006 - http://www.engadget.com/2006/12/04/dont-bother-picking-up-a-ps3-ps4-is-right-around-the-corner/ - "Sony has come out of the woodwork to state that yes, it is indeed planning to build a PlayStation 4, but not until at least 2010."
There's that 2010 again.
I know this sounds odd, but in a matter of a couple years, I have the feeling that analysts no longer consider Sony a major contender.
@ Andrew
I don't know man. Microsoft took the lead in one generation. I think we'll see a tighter competition this time around. Sony has only learned they need to take Microsoft seriously.
Gotta love competition.
If you actually read the article in detail it goes on to say it's probably all bogus and that the analyst is some non-credible source.
Skullfighter, while I think your points, overall, are good ones, it is kind of rediculous to say Microsoft has taken the lead. You may just as well say, "the PS3 is leading in console sales (excluding the Wii and 360)." See what I mean? Still, I think your points are good.
Competition is great! One really neat thing is that is appears the market may be able to support 3 systems. One of the things the Dreamcast had against it was simply the size of the market: it was only big enough to viably support 2 consoles. But 3 consoles duking it out really changes the dynamics!
For a long time I have wondered if Nintendo was planning on a shorter-than-normal console life-span. Just the price alone would help make this an acceptable plan. It seems to me Nintendo's primary goal with the Wii was to get back in the game strong. Release an innovative, inexpensive system. Then how about UPGRADING it after a few years! That would be an interesting route; not replace it with a new system, instead replace it with a significantly upgraded Wii. Hmmm...
Also keep in mind by 2010, the Wii and PS3 will be 4 years old, the 360 5 yrs. Far from new by then.
I'm guessing the wiiII will interface directly with your mind.
I seriously doubt that Nintendo will be releasing their next console in 2010...that would give the Wii a lifespan of only four years. The only reason I could see that happening is if they felt pressured because of a new Xbox and Playstation.
I could maybe see a new Xbox, as 2010 would be five years and the original Xbox was given just four. A new Playstation would depend on the PS3's sales, but I doubt a new one would come out in 2010 because Sony likes long lifespans for their consoles.
I could definitely see a new Nintendo DS then, if not beforehand, as 2010 would be year number six for the wonderful dual-screened device.
Personally, I would mind seeing some length lifespans for all the consoles.
I'm not for, or against the idea. honestly tho, being that my xbox has, yet again, crapped out on me, I think MS should first work toward a stable console before embarking on another nex gen.. at least refund me for the 2 months of XBL that I paid for and haven't been able to use!
I wonder if the Wii successor will actually be... the Wii.
Reggie has said that Nintendo is exploring the idea of a HD-capable Wii. Throw in some more internal memory, give the users 1080p visuals, upscale the old games to 720p (or 480p for any old Virtual Console games) and Nintendo will have a box that people will want to upgrade their current Wii to.
I think Nintendo is going to be doing to the console line what they have done with the handheld line: baby-step changes every few years. For example: We went from the GBA in 2001 to the GBA SP in 2003 to the GB Micro in 2005, and the DS went from the original DS in 2004 to the DS Lite in 2006.
If we use Nintendo's own release pattern, then there should be both a new DS. Assuming that they will extend the time on the consoles, though, I bet we see a major refresh for the Wii (but not a brand-new console) in 2009.
As for the Xbox: Well, MS surprised all of us when it rushed the 360 to market. I can see them doing such a move again.
Sorry... I meant to say there should be a new DS this year, as opposed to just saying there would be a new DS.
Do you have any links to articles where Reggie talks about HD-capable Wiis?
I have not heard about this and would like to know more.
It's a shame that both Nintendo and Microsoft have to upgrade their systems in 2010. The PS3 is the only true next gen system utilizing blu-ray which already has won the format war.
youre're going to need a second mortgage?
By not upgrading your gaming PC every 9-12 months, you will very quickly realize you can afford a big HDTV and all the consoles with money to spare after only a couple of upgrade cycles.
At least with consoles you know you can buy any game off the shelf and it will run perfectly (unless you bought a core 360).
Once again, so-called expert analysts who are just retards with a regular column. There is NO WAY IN YOU KNOW WHERE that this will happen in 2010. That would completely cannibalize the sales for M$ who just now became profitable with the 360 and the crazy-selling Wii who stands to sell a billion games with their hit system.
I'll bet my PS3 all my games and Blu-ray movies that this is total crap. The absolute earliest you'll see this happen is 2013.
Sweet, I'll take that bet. What's your e-mail address so I can send you my address to mail all that stuff to me. I think it's strange that you think these analysts have no idea and you must know better. It's not like they get paid to do this or anything.
but they do get paid
Even with the losses of xbox .. MS has more money then sony and nintendo combined.. they arent looking at the money they lose now.. they are looking at the growing fanbase ( triple so far of Xbox 1) that will propel Xbox 3 further up the totem pole.. which means more money.. Unlike RCA who sold over the TV industry to the Japanese ( in the 70's ) because they werent profitable.. gave away something the Japanese knew would be profitable in the future.. thats what MS sees in future Xbox's !
I own all 3 systems and only bought the PS3 as a bluray player..
As much as I'd love to see the PS4 sooner, rather than later, MS will NEED to updated the Xbox, while Sony will be fine. Developers are still trying to grasp some idea on how to take advantage of the raw power the PS3 offers, meanwhile the Xbox 360, while a meager improvement over the Xbox, never had the stuff it should have. If anything, Sony will upgrade the memory in the PS3, but I don't foresee a PS4 until after the market realizes Xbox 3 is still inferior to PS3.
Oh god, another "Raw Power" poster. Dude, it has a video card in it! That limits the oh so amazing "Raw Power" of the PS3.
Oh a MEAGER improvement?
That is the point where you shut the fuck up.
The Xbox 360 video card had actually been reported to be BETTER than what's in the PS3.
If you consider the upgrade 700MHz single core P3 based processor to a triple core 3.2GHz PowerPC based processor a "meager improvement" you have already lost all credibility. Not that you had any to begin with...
Could you tell us what the 360 should have had since you're such a genius?
Dumb little shit
The 360 should have had an HDMI port on ALL models, as well as shipped with an HD Drive, whether Blu-Ray or HD-DVD. They also should have used a better and newer graphics card than the one they used, which they rejected from the first xBox, I don't know why it was worthy this time. Also, the PS3's processor has way more processing power then the 360 does, as has been the case for decades between IBM, Motorola/Freescale, AMD, and Intel, raw speed does not a superior processor make, Intel realized this several years ago when they made the Core 2 Duo, redoing the architecture to be more like the PPC, only for the PPC developers to to trounce it with a new model. Also, note that the only actual graphics improvement on the 360 was a higher texture density. The only real hardware improvement the 360 made was more RAM. If you REALLY want to truly look into things, start here: http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2008/01/31/video-game-consoles-2007-wii-ps3-and-the-death-of-microsofts-xbox-360/
I don't know where people get this bullshit about the PS3 being more powerful... Oh wait, duh... Sony advertising- SORRY.
The Xbox 360's processor is all around, a faster processor, and the comparison between the Xenos and the RSX doesn't exist- the Xenos rapes it.
I might get flamed, but I don't care, because I can just laugh at the ignorance of those who oppose what I'm saying.
Wow, thattalldude, do you know anything?
The Cell is only 10% more efficient than the Xenon processor in certain situations, in perfect conditions- AI, physics, etc. Complex calculations. The problem is that 80-90% of the game's code is not complex, and there are tons of it. The Cell's single core can't process that code as fast as the Xenon, so it ultimately comes out behind. The reason I mention only the core is because the core can't split long lines of code and send it to the SPEs, it just gets stuck processing it.
The Xenos GPU... Hmmm... Rejected from the last Xbox? You mean 2 years ahead of it's time? Xenos was THE FIRST unified architecture GPU in production. The cards that you see dominating the video card market in the PC world today are so powerful because of their unified architecture. Taking into consideration that the Xenos is literally an early version of the R600 (of HD 2900XTX fame), one could clearly see how it would and does dominate a 7800GTX... Sorry, I meant G70- oh, God dammit... I keep fumbling... You know it better as the NV47, or the RSX. That is a NON-UNIFIED ARCHITECTURE CPU, and THAT on it's own discredits anything Sony has said about the PS3's power, because that fucker bottlenecks the shit out of the system.
The 360 is superior, whether you like it or not, in both the CPU and GPU areas.
By the way, bub that Xenon processor- one of the first production CPUs above 2 cores, with it's 3 core architecture. MAJOR improvement over the original Xbox.
Lets review major improvements (that were ahead of their time):
CPU
GPU
RAM
@thattalldude
Well done on linking to Roughly Drafted - a blog written by the most deluded Apple zealot on the planet. He thinks the Microsoft Xbox 360 has no future? No shiat.
If the PS3 so much more powerful than the Xbox 360, why don't the games look better? It doesn't matter how many gigahertz you've got if the developer can't harness it efficiently.
Is this going to be the generation where we finally see Apple enter the gaming industry? iGame anyone? or maybe the iPlay?
id be first in line!
they tried and failed. google search "apple pippin"
I like to call the Pippin the iFail.
Apple failed with the Pippin, and Microsoft failed with the Bob. Microsoft gave it another go, and while they've yet to be profitable over the entire course of this go 'round, they did attract a few million users, mostly by buying the makers of Halo, who until that point were developing Halo as a Mac only game. That being said, Apple rarely returns to a market they tried and didn't meet success in.
...did you just say that Microsoft succeeded with the Xbox where it failed with Bob? Because if so, I don't think you have any idea what Microsoft Bob was.
1500 dollar PS4?
probably.....
Oh but John, haven't you heard? The new PS4 is going to have a crapload of Raw Power!! It WILL be on par with a supercomputer if only game developers can write for it.
Wait, it has a video card again. /Heavy sarcasm
Oh but John, haven't you heard? The new PS4 is going to have a crapload of Raw Power!! It WILL be on par with a supercomputer if only game developers can write for it.
Wait, it has a video card again. /Heavy sarcasm
It also comes with whatever Sony wants to thrust on the market then too! Maybe it'll be some high capacity optical media again... Yay...
Or take the Nintendo approach, sell the system cheap and rack up on accessories. WHAT? MOST OF THE WII GAMES ARE MULTIPLAYER? But my Wii only came with ONE Wiimote! What? I need a Nunchuck to play this game? But my Wii didn't come with it.
Yeah... The Wii comes with a nunchuck. Next time, do some research before ranting.
Well, I guess this means I won't be buying that Xbox 360 I've been saving up for.
This could be the dumbest post on here. XBL was down/shoddy for what, 14 days over the holidays? Lets say it was 21 days. That is still over a 99% up time. 99.99849% actually. And that's only figuring a life of 5 years. It's been around for 5 years, and 4 months as of tomorrow.
GOD DAMN THE REPLY SYSTEM SUCKS!!! *release CapsLock*
Great blog (becuase of the readers) Get some software that works!
Andy,
Click on the date of the posting. Then hit reply. It works every time and is worth the clicks.
This could be the dumbest post on here. XBL was down/shoddy for what, 14 days over the holidays? Lets say it was 21 days. That is still over a 99% up time. 99.99849% actually. And that's only figuring a life of 5 years. It's been around for 5 years, and 4 months as of tomorrow.