Kurzweil predicts that machines will match man by 2029 -- bring it on

Famed technologist and futurist Ray Kurzweil is on the record about human-machine intelligence parity: it's going down by 2029, so be prepared to get digital on entirely new levels. Apparently, machines "will have both the hardware and the software to achieve human level artificial intelligence" by then, but even if it's not in the form of meatbag-terminating cyborgs, Kurzweil thinks one future of intelligent machines is on the nano scale, with interfaces to enhance our own physiology and intelligence. Oh sure, this stuff is completely pie in the sky -- but it's still absurdly fun to think of what kinds of crazy crap the 21st century's going to hold.

[Thanks to everyone who sent this in]

[Joe @ Feb 17th 2008 7:16PM]

"Endgame" anyone?

[Jherez @ Feb 17th 2008 8:01PM]

The end is F**king Nigh!!!! Lol. 28 Days Later anyone?

[philos @ Feb 17th 2008 8:31PM]

The Singularity is Near!

[Jherez @ Feb 17th 2008 9:06PM]

All this prediction stuff is pretty disturbing, i just read a bunch of articles on wiki. I hold some of them with a grain of salt, I'll start believing in the singularity and such if we get past 2012

[Smart People Play Tuba @ Feb 17th 2008 9:14PM]

As dumb as this upcoming generation appears to be, this achievement wouldn't take much effort.

[Dave @ Feb 17th 2008 10:43PM]

sweet, landscaping will no longer have a language barrier

[Saad Rabia @ Feb 17th 2008 7:20PM]

:)

Remember the old predictions the scientists use to say on how the world will work in the year 2000? As you can see we have exceeded their predictions by miles, except for the space traveling part. So, I predict that machines will match man even much earlier than they expect, maybe around the 2018 or 2020.

What say you guys?

[CUBSWILLWIN @ Feb 17th 2008 7:22PM]

they thought in the year 2000 that we would be driving hover cars and we would have colonies on neptune...

[B @ Feb 17th 2008 7:25PM]

No, because they were also way off on predictions like flying cars and pill sized meals. If any thing I Wouldn't expect this until 2038

[JohnTitor @ Feb 17th 2008 7:37PM]

neptune is a gaseous planet...

[Saad Rabia @ Feb 17th 2008 8:06PM]

@ CUBSWILLWIN & @ B:

Maybe it is the other way around! Maybe, the right way to put it is that we will see machines matching man way after 2029, like 2060! What you guys said is more accurate and leads to the fact that scientists predict stuff way ahead of the realistic time frame. :)

[CUBSWILLWIN @ Feb 17th 2008 8:18PM]

@ johnTitor
Uranus is too :P

[Sam Winter @ Feb 17th 2008 9:30PM]

IT seems like most short-term future predictions made are wrong in exact ideas such as a 1920 prediction of colonizing the others planets, but are somwhat "right" with the level of advancement even if they don't necessarily know what exactly it will be. I hope that sort of makes sense. I'm thinking of people from the late 19th century or early 20th century having made wrong predictions about say, colonizing the planets or having viable personal flying transportation...BUT they couldn't even imagine the advancements we made in electronics and computer technology. I mean they literally couldn't even CONCEIVE of or conceptualize the technology that now is such a large part of modern society.

I have read some of Kurzweil's awesome books, and I agree to some extent with his ideas of robotic artifical intelligence, however I believe that 50 or 75 years from now, the world will be different in ways that we cannot of imagine. I think it's so interesting to look back at famous philosophers and thinkers from classical Greek antiquity up to the renaissance and try to imagine how they saw the world and the future and compare that to what we have today. It really gives you profound insight when trying to understand our own future and what lies ahead. I truly hope that the positive parts of globalization can spread like wildfire allowing average people to experience different cultures and become friends with people from all different parts of the world. It's starting to happen with the internet and increased global travel. I hope the human potential/spirituality movement gains momentum and people really focus on relieving human suffering and creating peace with one another. I know the cynics will call it a pipe dream and that humans always are at war with each other, etc etc, but I believe as many do that times will change for the better, whether a catastrophic natural event or nuclear apocaclypse has to initiate it or not(2012!). This outcome would be better than just having future technology with the same human drama, but technology advancement may actually precipitate better human relations and functioning, especially tech which can help all of human kind life a life with all of their basic needs met. Also I look to space travel and the discovery of other life as potential events that could bring together the world once again.
enough of the novel.... lol

[CUBSWILLWIN @ Feb 17th 2008 7:21PM]

Looks like my toaster won't just burn toast anymore! :P

[Jherez @ Feb 17th 2008 9:35PM]

LOL At your previous comment, thank you for the laugh

[Boscorooty @ Feb 17th 2008 9:42PM]

>>Looks like my toaster won't just burn toast anymore!

No, it will still burn toast, but it will be doing it because it hates you.

Rob

[MangaMan @ Feb 18th 2008 5:20AM]

LOL @ Rob!

[SimbaDogg @ Feb 17th 2008 7:24PM]

no comments about welcoming our machine overlords yet? weird....

[Homeboy @ Feb 17th 2008 7:36PM]

I for one don't welcome our i-robot-wannabe humanoids.

[George B. Romero @ Feb 17th 2008 7:28PM]

Darn. we have to wait that long!?!?!? sucks.

[Reader @ Feb 17th 2008 8:20PM]

Seriously. I want to become a professional couch potato already.

[Abuzar @ Feb 22nd 2008 12:23AM]

It's not going to happen don't worry. Realistically, it would be stupids to make true AIs.

[dennis @ Feb 17th 2008 7:36PM]

I think Kurzweil is an idiot. He seemingly makes a living talking about when artificial intelligence can make even better artificial intelligence, and about how we're going to need to make sure AI won't take over. Whereas we all know, once that happens, we're toast.

[Justin @ Feb 18th 2008 4:29PM]

Hello? Cloud City? Lando? I think that's where the carbon freezing chamber is too...

[Adoniteking @ Feb 17th 2008 7:38PM]

Someone's been watching too many Sarah Connor chronicles

[ALLurGroceries @ Feb 17th 2008 7:40PM]

Looks like somebody @ 'teh beeb' finally got around to reading The Age of Spiritual Machines... 9 years late. Here are some links if after reading the article you're left asking "where's the beef":

http://www.engineeringchallenges.org/

http://www.engineeringchallenges.org/cms/7124/7262.aspx

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil#2029

[David @ Feb 17th 2008 7:41PM]

Kurzweil actually made this claim quite a while ago, which is (sort of) indicated in the article when he says he has "made the case" for this being true.

http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0691.html?m=1

[Tom Oliveri @ Feb 17th 2008 7:46PM]

yea.. i wouldnt be too keen to step into a ring with a robot.

but i'd definitely take it on out in a jungle or somewhere i can set traps and outsmart it..

[Will @ Feb 18th 2008 12:46AM]

Judging by your other comments,
the robot would outsmart you everywhere.

[Intrepid @ Feb 17th 2008 7:51PM]

The article on the BBC had more appropriate pictures :P

[mac @ Feb 17th 2008 10:32PM]

true. but we know engadget to have a slightly quirky angle on life. i actually think theirs is better. its also from their own collection, from CES this year!

[Smart People Play Tuba @ Feb 17th 2008 7:51PM]

". . . it's going down by or before 2029 . . ."

Don't "by 2029" and "befor 2029" mean the same thing?

I'm just sayin'.

Much Love,
Grammar Boy

[Chris @ Feb 17th 2008 7:51PM]

I don't think this will ever happen, the people who know how to even make a robot like that will be smart enough not to make it too powerful, right? Its like they've never seen Terminator.

[Mojo @ Feb 18th 2008 3:35PM]

The Mayans may prove right if this all comes down on Dec 21, 2021.

[Chris @ Feb 17th 2008 7:53PM]

Edit: its not live they've never seen terminator

(When is engadget gonna get a comment edit system)

[Jonathan Worrel @ Feb 17th 2008 7:53PM]

This is quite old news actually. I knew about 2029 since I was 11, six years ago.

[Dustin @ Feb 17th 2008 9:18PM]

Actually, thanks to your comment, the researchers have set the bar a bit lower on the par "human" intelligence level. They are now targeting 2010.

[Jonathan Worrel @ Feb 18th 2008 12:17AM]

Was that supposed to be sarcastic? lol didn't get it.

By the way, IA (Intelligence Amplification) is an interesting topic I'll have to look into.

[Alex @ Feb 17th 2008 7:56PM]

Yeah, I'm gonna start watching that Terminator show and brush up on my robot killing skills. They might come in handy...

[Killer @ Feb 17th 2008 7:54PM]

"Apparently, machines "will have both the hardware and the software to achieve human level artificial intelligence" by then,"

I'm pretty sure machines have more intelligence than some people already.

Like Ms. South Carolina:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lj3iNxZ8Dww

[BigD145 @ Feb 17th 2008 8:18PM]

"I believe" is a concept we should teach robots. They'll be far less harmful on the catwalk.

[jd @ Feb 17th 2008 8:02PM]

iron man 28 fx?

[Michael LaFramboise @ Feb 17th 2008 8:05PM]

Well, we're boned...

[Wwhat @ Feb 17th 2008 8:28PM]

;)

[Reader @ Feb 17th 2008 8:14PM]

If AI does become this advanced I'm curious as to what education will be like. Instead of learning algebra and grammar we may solely be trained to be creative and think only in ideals. Even with the intelligence of a human it's quite unlikely that computers would be able to be as creative as humans.

[Ed @ Feb 17th 2008 11:51PM]

Interestingly enough, thinking "only in ideas" as a goal of education means that a sizable percentage of the human population will be valuable only as a food source once occupations like digging ditches and making my iced chai latte are adequately performed entirely by machines.

It's a good thing that computers would be able to take over our math and science at that point, because "ideas" are a dime a dozen already when not backed by a knowledge of how to make them reality.

[Rotaryfan @ Mar 22nd 2008 11:02PM]

Definitely. we don't even understand how creativity works; no program is capable of producing a dream or a subconsious. machines are a long way off from ethics and morals and 'gut' feelings. we can't makes machines like us because we don't understand what makes us tick. human intelligence is relative; current computers have a mathematical intelligence well above ours, but as seen by rules based voice recognition (yes, you vista) it sucks. I think we're at least 50 years away from anything with half the IQ of a human, let alone a terminator or toy soldiers takeover.

[Wwhat @ Feb 17th 2008 8:27PM]

Yeah machines will match humans in that they both will have no autonomy and will be run by chips, yay?

[Dave Higgins @ Feb 17th 2008 8:39PM]

Yes, it's called the "singularity" and Vernor Vinge predicted it many years ago.

[webon @ Feb 17th 2008 8:38PM]

ok yeah but when are they starting to time travel, I mean they should have come back allready no?

the fact that we haven't seen any of them maybe because:
1.- we defeated their metallic asses and they never got to travel back in time to destroy us
2.- they waited to be so advanced before time travel that they look exactly like us and thus we haven't noticed (I know a couple o' trolls that could be robots)
3.- we finally became friends after long eons of fighting and there wasn't any real need to travel back in time cuz we will have "VTT (Virtual Time Travel) that would enable us to "live" in any time frame we would so desire.
4.- And lastly but not litlish they never got to time travel cuz we blew them up (earth and all) just before they could and just before we got the remaining of us in one of those old spaceships and embarked in the fruitless search for home in Europa (and later a new solar system)



sorry got little carried away