Ballmer sees the end of print media in ten years

Apparently unfazed by his recent egg attack, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer has now gone out on a limb and made some pretty bold predictions in a recent discussion with Washington Post editors, the biggest of which, by far, is his proclamation that he thinks there'll be "no media consumption left in 10 years that is not delivered over an IP network." So as not to leave any doubt about that, he also went to further clarify that means there "will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form." He did add, however, that if it was 14 or 8 years, it's "immaterial" to his fundamental point. Among the other nuggets dropped during the wide-ranging conversation, Ballmer says he has "no clue" what Google is up to and, just in case you've been dying to know, he says his favorite TV show is "Lost" (although he's not willing to "pay a buck" for it on iTunes just to get rid of the ads). Hit up the link below for the full interview, complete with video.

[Via Digg]

[MastermindZ @ Jun 6th 2008 12:24PM]

Interesting.

[bohsocks @ Jun 6th 2008 12:32PM]

Wasn't there a story yesterday saying that Ballmer's done in 2018? Hmm... I smell a murder-suicide?

[dj-kenpo @ Jun 6th 2008 1:31PM]

10 years ago there was no such things as e-ink or oled.

so anyone saying they can't see this happening shouldn't be on a tech site.

new technology comes out ALL the time, that changes the game.

if someone gave me a multi page book made of e-ink papers, I'd never buy a normal paperback EVER again.

do you really think that won't happen?

my first mp3 player was 32mb's. the first ebooks are a single page and cumbersome.
it'll change, don't you doubt it.

[tiuk @ Jun 6th 2008 1:33PM]

You really think it's going to happen within 10 years? Keep dreaming, buddy.

[dj-kenpo @ Jun 6th 2008 1:33PM]

sorry, my reply was for the comment below.

I'm starting to understand why everyone complains about the engadget comment system...

[ill trooper @ Jun 6th 2008 3:00PM]

DJ kempo: "if someone gave me a multi page book made of e-ink papers, I'd never buy a normal paperback EVER again. do you really think that won't happen?"

Of course tech changes - we're communicating on one of the greatest changes ever. I think print will continue to evolve as it always has, but I think it'll be around a lot longer than Ballmer thinks - I think he's just jumping on something to look more clever than he actually is.

Despite the web, television, and the Kindle, there's still books and the ability to enjoy something without using electricity for fear of it dying or losing a nice investment if you leave it on a plane.

For all the posts I hear about the iPhone not having a swappable battery, I hate to think what people would say about their book dying in the middle of a final chapter. This is assuming people will still be reading in ten years... Ballmer, any thoughts?

[linkbeat @ Jun 6th 2008 3:01PM]

And in 1995 everyone was predicting that retail stores and shopping malls would disappear since we'd all be shopping online.

The only reason MS will continue to do well (mostly due to enterprise business) is because of the hard working engineers. Not this so called "visionary."

[Billy Fiul @ Jun 6th 2008 4:06PM]

DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS

[OneLove @ Jun 6th 2008 4:37PM]

I say he is wrong. Someone will still sell them to rich people as retro or exclusive or whatever.

[John Bailey @ Jun 7th 2008 1:26AM]

Magazines and newspapers I can see. they don't have the long term use of a book. And being able to search through the back issues if a magazine for a specific article would actually be incredibly useful.

But books are a very different thing. For many, the tactile experience of reading a book is part of the whole thing. Not just consuming the information contained inside.

Ebook readers I think will take off as soon as they reach the £50-100 mark, but even then, they are unlikely to take over for a very long time. And no.. the iPhone is not in this category.

[spass @ Jun 6th 2008 12:25PM]

Most of us would have predicted the same witout being Steve Ballmer.
Maybe 10 years is too optimistic, but it would happen in the next two decades for sure.

[spass @ Jun 6th 2008 12:55PM]

On a second thought... it has nothing to do with a particular nymber of years.

It would happen when current (third generation, if I may...) passes away. I could never imagine my grandmother holding an ebook, even is she would live to be 150.

[Samboini @ Jun 6th 2008 1:17PM]

I completely disagree. Whilst I do not argue that there will be a heavy usage of electronic distribution, I for one would always choose a physical book over some generic reader with a text file. It just doesn't seem right to me.

It's the same reason that as a DJ I have a huge library of digital tracks but by far my most favourite piece of equipment are my 1210 Mk. 2's.

Anyone agree?

[gad get @ Jun 6th 2008 1:27PM]

I don't see how printed media could possibly go extinct anytime in the foreseeable future. There are some things you just can't practically use a little piece of electronic circuits for. Besides, I agree with Samboini that there's a certain element to reading a book that isn't present when reading from a screen. It's like blending your macaroni and cheese into a smooth paste, and expecting to get the same degree of pleasure from it that you would if you had to chew. Maybe that's just me though... maybe some people like macaroni smoothies.

[sinjinn @ Jun 6th 2008 1:33PM]

@sambioni

i dont even know what an mk20,2 is. anyway , i think most people who have always read books will stick with real books wheras the newer generations of tech savvy kids will prefer electronic media , especially when battery life becomes a non issue and you have everything , phone, mid, music/vid player in one or two devices.

but ofcourse you wouldnt be able to get older people or traditionalists to read ebooks.

[Bill Brasky @ Jun 6th 2008 1:44PM]

While I agree it will happen eventually (maybe much more than 20 years), there are some hurdles that ebooks/readers need to overcome:

* paper books don't crash
* paper books don't run out of batteries
* I can lend my paper book to a friend without the RIAA/MPAA/etc coming after me
* If I drop my paper book on the ground, it's unlikely to break
* If a wave hits me on the beach and soaks my paper book, I'm only out a few bucks
* I don't have to turn off and stow my paper book during takeoff and landing

[Samboini @ Jun 6th 2008 1:57PM]

@ sinjinn:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technics_1210

[KarlW @ Jun 6th 2008 2:23PM]

And paper doesn't scratch in a rough environment, like a bag

[SimbaDogg @ Jun 6th 2008 2:34PM]

@ samboini
you're comparison between this and a dj who has mp3s that still uses records and turntables is a HORRIBLE example. the reason why a lot of DJs still use turntables is the feel, its really more of a niche industry/profession you're talking about.

but anyone who can't see this happening in the near future w/ the advancement of cell phones and e readers is simply blind to tech. i mean, how many people on the web actually subcribe to the LA times, financial times, WSJ, and many other publications online. How many of these publications even had online subs 10 years ago? i dont know for a fact, but i'd be inclined to say hardly any if not none. with display tech getting cheaper and cheaper, dont be surprised to see something like the kindle or sonys e reader to clock in around $50-100 bucks in the future. and if you could wirelessly download text books, newspapers, magazines and the whole lot to that (in color) i dont see why the hell anyone would wanna carry multiple books/mags/newspapers compared to that one e-reader/phone

[Samboini @ Jun 6th 2008 3:27PM]

@SimbaDogg:

And it is also the feel of the book that i'm referring to. You can't flex an ebook, it doesn't feel the same, it just performs completely differently!

[Mobile Phone Diva @ Jun 6th 2008 7:52PM]

I agree that this will happen, likely within the next 30 yrs. We're already headed that way. However, like Mr. Brasky said, there are a few more kinks to work out before we go totally paperless. There are also those who can't yet go paperless. I saw a report the other day that states there's still a significant number of people with no internet access. So they may still be getting news from the paper? And reading magazines for entertainment news and stuff like that?

I also think though, that before we go paperless, it's seems a bit more likely we could go CD and DVD-less first, due to everyone always wanting to download. And I'd really hate to see those go too, due to all the DRM attached to a lot of downloads.

[Wonderkid @ Jun 6th 2008 12:27PM]

He is not the first to say this. Either way, anything that decimates the rip off print cartridge industry will be welcome. Bring on Minority Report gadgets! (Minus the empaths...)

[jonathan @ Jun 6th 2008 12:27PM]

I cant fn stand this guy....

[Mam00th @ Jun 6th 2008 12:59PM]

You got to admit though that he is hilarious. He's the man who got me excited about reversi!

[Richard Lai @ Jun 6th 2008 1:43PM]

Yep, Ballmer brought much joy to the YouTube community, so he's not all that bad. ;)

[tbone @ Jun 6th 2008 12:27PM]

Ballmer reminds of the bald dude from the Iron Man movie

[Sporkinum @ Jun 6th 2008 12:32PM]

The bald dude was The Dude. And he most definitely did not abide in Iron Man.

[StreetStealth @ Jun 6th 2008 2:19PM]

I think T-bone is out of his element.

[yode @ Jun 6th 2008 8:09PM]

the bald dude was The Dude...
LOl HE WAS THE DUDE!!! BIG LEBOWSKI HAHAHH!!!

[ReggieXuk @ Jun 6th 2008 12:28PM]

He says this because he wants it to happen, and wants all people who hear it to demand it. Sly son of a bitch.

[Ninjakamster (PS360 FTW!) @ Jun 6th 2008 12:32PM]

While I would miss the experience of holding a book, turning the pages, an Ebook Reader is quite fine, able to fit many many books at once, saving our trees, our resources which is very important.

[David MacMillan @ Jun 6th 2008 12:47PM]

It doesn't effing save trees to use less paper. Trees used for paper are a renewable crop. No one talks about using less bread in order to save wheat stalks. While I would agree that print media will soon be phased out (mostly, not entirely; legal documents will be in print for a LONG time), Ballmer's no genius for figuring it out. The loss of print media will put a lot of people out of jobs and ruin a strong, healthy American industry.

Please shut up about saving trees.

[Aaron Wanker @ Jun 6th 2008 12:50PM]

I agree, I like the tangible quality of books, especially the smell of old books. I think that it would be very difficult for me to get used to reading Tolkien, Lewis, or Ludlum on a Kindle, it seems like it might stifle my imagination a bit.

[Aaron Wanker @ Jun 6th 2008 12:51PM]

I agree with MacMillan on the tree thing.

[David @ Jun 6th 2008 12:54PM]

Another supporter for Macmillan, lumberjacks FTW

[Josef @ Jun 6th 2008 1:01PM]

While MacMillan is correct that using less paper wouldn't "save trees", that's really not the point. The production of paper is one of the most environmentally toxic industries in the world. If we can limit the paper mill industry I don't really care if you can't hold a paper copy of USA Today in your hands while you take a dump. I say go for it.

[bjsguess @ Jun 6th 2008 4:15PM]

@ David MacMillon

Apparently you don't live in an area where logging occurs.

Theoretically it sounds great. Cut a tree down, convert it to paper. Paper then gets recycled and tress get replanted. Unfortunately, we are a long way off from that Utopia.

In the PNW I see the impact of logging. There are plenty of forrests that have been cut down and not replanted. Throw in the fact that waste management studies have suggested that at least 45% off all landfill garbage should get recycled - but doesn't - and you can see why this is an issue.

I'm far from being a tree hugger. But I can't let you get away with making silly statements that infer that if we moved to a paperless society we wouldn't see any impact on our forests.

[John @ Jun 6th 2008 1:31PM]

It's true. There's a lot more to paper mills than just cutting down some trees (even though that is an issue). Entire rivers and lakes in the US are closed to the public because of runoff from paper mills. If you've ever been within 3 miles of one, you'll also know that they produce the most disgusting smell ever created (worse than raw sewage). It's a nasty industry that has really tried to clean up its act over the last few decades, but the need for paper is decreasing.

While there will be less need for paper for newspapers and magazines, paper will still be used in areas like packaging design, which I have a feeling will become one of the more sought-after areas of graphic/industrial design after editorial design makes the move to all digital.

[Derek @ Jun 6th 2008 2:29PM]

While it's true that paper production produces pollution, so too does the manufacture of plastic housings, circuit boards, LCDs and batteries. So claiming to save the environment by replacing paper with electronics, isn't the strongest argument.

[Josef @ Jun 6th 2008 3:54PM]

Derek, you do realize electronics are re-usable, right? You don't have to keep buying those Kindle things over and over again.

Hope I saved you some money.

[Derek @ Jun 6th 2008 8:52PM]

Snidely stating the obvious simply shows that you can snidely state the obvious, Josef. It doesn't rebut my point.

[farfisa @ Jun 6th 2008 12:33PM]

I bet print media outlasts Ballmer's heart. Not wishing anything on him, but the dude's hyper.

[Jakob Henner @ Jun 6th 2008 12:35PM]

I'll qoute Bill Gates:

»640KB ought to be enough for anybody.«
He wasn't right

»Life is not fair. Get used to it. .... Be nice to nerds. Chances are you'll end up working for one.«
Hell yeaah he IS right.

So Ballmer boy I say fifty/fifty ;)

[crow610 @ Jun 6th 2008 12:41PM]

Very true. And if you pick up a copy of "The Road Ahead", by Bill Gates which was written some 10 years ago, you will find that a lot of his predictions were never fulfilled.


In any event, it's still fun to talk about the future.


Just be sure to "save the clock tower"

[Josh L @ Jun 6th 2008 12:44PM]

You're not right.

Bill Gates never said that. People need to stop misattributing that stupid quote to him just to pat yourself on the back about how wrong Bill Gates was about something.

[Jakob Henner @ Jun 6th 2008 12:54PM]

You're right Justin, did some research, but a "correct" quote:

»We will never make a 32-bit operating system.«

[Evan @ Jun 6th 2008 12:35PM]

I see the end of Ballmer - in far less than 10 years...

[m @ Jun 6th 2008 2:18PM]

i agree, and expect to read about it in print.

[papafew @ Jun 6th 2008 12:39PM]

I remember him saying with his silly high pitch voice : iPhone ? blah blah blah, it will never work !

so i think we can trust him anyway with no doubt

[Jherez @ Jun 6th 2008 12:41PM]

This is exactly what Skynet wants...