Ballmer sees the end of print media in ten years
By Donald Melanson 
posted June 6th 2008 12:21PM
posted June 6th 2008 12:21PM
Apparently unfazed by his recent egg attack, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer has now gone out on a limb and made some pretty bold predictions in a recent discussion with Washington Post editors, the biggest of which, by far, is his proclamation that he thinks there'll be "no media consumption left in 10 years that is not delivered over an IP network." So as not to leave any doubt about that, he also went to further clarify that means there "will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form." He did add, however, that if it was 14 or 8 years, it's "immaterial" to his fundamental point. Among the other nuggets dropped during the wide-ranging conversation, Ballmer says he has "no clue" what Google is up to and, just in case you've been dying to know, he says his favorite TV show is "Lost" (although he's not willing to "pay a buck" for it on iTunes just to get rid of the ads). Hit up the link below for the full interview, complete with video.
[Via Digg]
[Via Digg]
Microsoft always promises the moon, the delivers a broken spy satellite.
Actually, what he doesn't see is the potential end of Microsoft in ten years. It could happen. Look at how in a few years Google has been to make a midget out of former giant Yahoo.
Na! Everyone will come back to clay tablet before that, I'm sure.
It's like when PCs become mainstream and someone said typewriters would be dead in 10 years. We still have typewriters around, don't me?
I'm sure we'll be able to read his prediction in print and laugh well past 10 years from now.
Nothing will ever replace the feel, portability, and smell of books.
It is not hard to forget the prediction of the 'paper less office' made several years ago. I wonder if 'the end of print media' will be come true just as 'paper less office' did.
Books don't need batteries to operate, don't break when they drop, don't explode when you throw them in the fire.
hmm... paper: 3500+ years
Ballmer: doesn't read, can't draw; why does he need paper?
that guy doesn't know crap
You are all missing the economic realities of this. YES, a lot of people (including myself) vastly prefer the feel of a paper to the feel and operation of current e-reading devices (this WILL improve over time, though). HOWEVER, dwindling demand will change the economics of the current model drastically.
I live in a town with a major print media organization. My brother in law works for them. Almost every aspect of their business is now unprofitable they have almost monthly layoffs. Except for a few, premier publications, magazines are falling left and right. Small runs, smaller advertising revenues, and larger distribution costs all add up to unprofitability and thus shuttering of business. Smaller newspapers are all failing and large ones are suffering for the same reason.
Both newspapers and magazines with their short and timely articles are dying quickly because the transition of their consumer base to the web is making it impossible to operate profitably, NOT because there aren't people who continue to prefer the printed option. At best, we'll see massive consolidation and increased cost for printed media of this type. I think that 10 years will not completely see the end of newspapers and magazines, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the number of options reduced by 90% by then. Small market papers and niche magazines cannot survive (at least using a printed media distribution model) in the internet age.
Now for books, Balmer's estimate is likely off base. These aren't yet as affected simply because there aren't compelling reasons to switch and there are different dynamics involved. Books are very different monsters. People read them for long periods of time and (sometimes) repeatedly. People develop emotional attachment to books. People collect them and like to show them off. People annotate and share books. Children interact with them in tactile ways that can't be replicated electronically. They have enduring (generally time insensitive) content. There is little value to consumers to receiving them electronically. I COULD perhaps in 10 years see paperback novels printed almost exclusively on-demand to save in distribution and warehousing as demand trickles away (slowly). Large book stores may give way to smaller book and coffee shops with on-demand stations and only the most popular titles in stock (of course along with a decent selection collector and coffee table books and the like). I could see perhaps the end of the printed textbook market assuming cheap readers with color e-ink (or similar) and annotation capabilities. I CAN'T see the end of printed books, though. They'll become more expensive (supply and demand, quantities of scale, cost of distribution) and more of a luxury item. But, they'll persist for far more than 10 years...or 20...or 30.
On Ballmer's first note that no media consumption left that isn't provided over IP, that's pretty much a reality for most people now, but printed material will always exist. Newspapers are recyclable, are cheap, are easy to maintain and do not come in the form of a permanent product that you must now tend to and make sure that its connection to the outside world is constantly active to get constant updates. While I get my news on the internet and TV mainly, I wouldn't assume that my choices in life reflect the population in total. People still buy newspapers at stands to get up-to-date information, check the sport page, check the quotes, despite being able to do all of these things online.
But why bother when it's right there for you to quickly access outside for a mere 50 cents? Worried about its impact on the environment? Toss it in a recycle bin, and it will come back in the form of those crumply paper cup holders that you see in Starbucks and Dunkin Donuts.
I know people who don't have telephones. Steve Ballmer has no vision, he just draws a line to easy success and hopes customers will trot along.
Also... Bill gates said in 1992 that "8 megabytes of RAM is more than anyone will ever need." Fast-forward to the recommended vista RAM being 1gb.. Hmmm.. There's no way to predict where this stuff is going, and that's the only sure thing.
I... don't think that's right.
The quote that's widely attributed to Gates is "640kb ought to be enough for anybody", and it was said in the late 70s, not 1992.
From Wikiquote: http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Talk:Bill_Gates
The source of "640kb ought to be enough for anybody." may have actually been "No one will need more than 637 kb of memory for a personal computer." and it may have been said in the early 1970s.
The earliest mention of this quote on usenet seems to be a signature by Evan Champion in 1992-07-25 (News:2175291@overmind.citadel)
LX 2.1 TD . "640K ought to be enough for anybody." - Bill Gates, 1981
In any case, it is widely accepted that Gates said something to that effect in the late 70s - early 80s, and that he did severely underestimate the direction in which computers would go. Obviously he managed to go with it.
Newspapers I can see.
Magazines I can see.
Comics will probably stay as print.
Books... books aren't going anywhere. Maybe textbooks, but the regular book-buying public is not going to embrace digital editions in the next decade, if ever.
That isn't to say that the larger bestseller-buying readers will not go digital - I suspect they will. But the folks who read very regularly are not going to leave the printed page in the next decade.
I guess he doesn't worry much about the cost of gas? If he did, he'd see car sales sucking, home sales sucking, and consumers strapped for cash are spending less EVERYWHERE. So, the 10 years might have looked plausible 2-3 years ago, but today, right now with oil getting ready to hit $150 a gallon, who the hell will have any money to further any technology much less present the consumers with a cheap device in which to experience this new digitial media? People can't pay their mortgage but in a few years they'll be able to drop cash on an e-book type device?! Sony can't even get people to buy bluray, but people will forego the good ole newspaper to read the newspaper on their computer? Not in 10 years, not the rate we're going.
Monkey boy is always good for a laugh.
To me seeing something on a screen and actually holding something in my hand is a TOTALLY different experience.
The act of actually holding some animate object gives it a sense of "worth". Reading a sports car brochure through PDF vs. reading one through a well made Brochure is proof enough IMO.
We forget that we also have a sense of "Touch".
Ballmer looks like he's typing on an invisible keyboard.
i hate reading on a pdf and ebooks on computer screen its better to take a magazine and relax in a recliner and read with no bright light glowing in your face and its just feels right
i cant explain it
http://img216.imageshack.us/img216/8565/0533oh1.jpg
lol.
Of course, he doesn't care about poor people who can afford to be connected to an IP network.
He's a maroon who sees things through is echo-chamber enhanced rose-colored Microsoft-filtering glasses.
The man is a fool, and if this doesn't convince people of that, then they are just as clueless.
The owner of the newspaper I was working for in 1989 told me that within 15 years newspapers would mostly be delivered on a tablet-like device.
Well, I'm still waiting for my pad-delivered newspaper, flying car and jet pack. Not to mention 30 hour work week I would be in because of increased worker productivity that I was promised in second grad back, in 19..., uh, a few decades back.
Why would anyone listen to a moron like Balmer?
Search his name on youtube and you will find countless videos of him going mad - like stupid mad - or predecting the iphone will never work...
Who does he think he is? Nostradamus?
Microsoft couldn't predict the failure of Vista so... ten years time...
I hope some trustworthy advisor ushered this 10 year doomsday scenario cause truly I don't trust Balmer.
I am trying to stay polite but god! I wonder how Microsoft can keep this guy. If they keep him long enough, in 10 years time, it is microsoft that will be long forgotten.
Alot of comments here are about the authentic feel of paper on your hands. But what if technology comes up with an ereader with that exact same feel? A multipage flexible e-book that looks, smells, feels, sounds exactly like a normal book. That comes in multiple formats. And you know what that technology already exacts. Philips created a flexible display based on oil, water and other technological stuff.
The article is right here
http://www.engadget.com/2007/07/30/lg-philips-develops-oil-and-water-based-flexible-display/
An e-reader needs to batteries to run on.... you know what? Most e-readers are really battery efficient. They can run for months without needing a recharge. And you know what thats on technology we have right now. Maybe they'll have electronic devices that can convert molecules in the air automaticly in energy or some other high tec energy solution in the future. Maybe they can run for years on batteries by just spending 5min outside in the sun. This argument is void anyway cause like I said ebooks can run on batteries for months. The cost of shaving everyday is even higher.
Electronic devices can break, explode when thrown in fire, crack, crash etc. Normal books are even more fragile.
Ballmer is right on this one. Its just a matter of time before print media is going to be phased out and books become rare items for collectors.
he also said that the iphone would flop..
Nerve gonna happen..Never
NOT! There will always be people who don't own or even want to own a computer, there will always be print, there will always be coloring books, older people who can't run a pc, etc. etc. etc. they have claimed this years ago and yet the presses keep churning. I agree, there shouldn't be as it's affect on environment is bad, but so are all the machines used to create digital media. In fact print materials on recycled paper with soy inks and such are far better than putting plasmas and LCD everywhere to deliver any message via advertising.
My 2 ¢
Faslane
Out of curiosity, do you really think that just getting old will make you unable to run a PC? So the current generation of PC savvy 30-40 year olds will suddenly become computer illiterate when they reach, what, 50?
They also said that the people elected the president, that the world could "do somethng bad" in Y2K, and that Anna Nicole Married for Love, and that aliens exist but have we seen proof of otherwise? All these were stolen by various movie quotes by the way LMAO.
It may be a less-desired way to deliver media, but not going tostop and not THAT soon either.
Faslane
is that the reason for his baldness?
wahahahaha
He’s right but for the wrong reasons.
In 10 years 80% of America will look like the slums of Mexico and nobody will be able to afford a tissue to wipe their butt. Oil should be t $1000 a barrel or higher and a gallon of gas over $100.00.
The Great Depression will look like happy times
I already get my news only online, hell I haven't read a newspaper in years, and the only magazines I have are to increase my collection of ones I subscribed to back in the N64/PS1 era of consoles... I don't think print media will ever be totally wiped out, because there will always be poor people who just cannot afford basic electronics.
I hope he wasn't thinking about toilet paper!
i love stevie, he's such a character :) (joke, for those of you who dont get it, i hate microsoft as much as you do)
Economically speaking, newspaper will die when the cost to print one is more than the value you could possibly get from printing it. I think that is a ways off. Print media has a strong advantage that computers can't match: it is easy to put the newspaper in places where people have nothing else to do, such as on the plane or at a bar. People are more likely to stumble upon a print article (and hence the print advertisement) than they are to its online counterpart, which they have to be linked to or go searching for.
That picture begs a photoshop with someone in the opposite window holding an anti-microsoft sign or something.
Dude is that chick nekid in the window behind him.
There will never be a need from more the 640KB of RAM...
whoops - FOR more than 640KB of RAM... don't drink and type kids... :D