Gartner analyst says the mouse will be on the outs within five years

As you may have noticed, we're not ones to put much stock in analysts' predictions, especially when they involve the demise of something as entrenched as the mouse in as little as five years. Still, that's the limb Gartner analyst Steve Prentice has walked out on, sort of. While he first qualifies things a bit by saying that the mouse "works fine in the desktop environment but for home entertainment or working on a notebook it's over," he later seems to get considerably more definitive in stating that "the idea of a keyboard with a mouse as a control interface is the paradigm that I am talking about breaking down" (the keyboard, he says, is here to stay). In place of the mouse, Prentice sees things like facial recognition systems, multi-touch, and even devices like OCZ's mind-reading Neural Interface Actuator taking over. Now, if you'll excuse us, we're going to start practicing thinking really hard so we don't get tripped up during the transition.

[Via TrustedReviews]

[Anthony @ Jul 21st 2008 7:12PM]

I hear it's a natural evolution that computer companies have already thought out, actually. The mouse will be succeeded by the cat.

[bartoron @ Jul 21st 2008 7:18PM]

And then the dinosaur.

[L @ Jul 21st 2008 7:19PM]

CAT ... Cerebral Automatic Translation of thoughts into cursor movements.

[icepop4who @ Jul 21st 2008 8:14PM]

the analyst is a cat. Too bad Tom never catches Jerry.

[DanDrinan @ Jul 21st 2008 8:40PM]

It's called gaming rofl. The mouse wont go.

[Blaktornado @ Jul 21st 2008 9:07PM]

"It's called gaming rofl. The mouse wont go."

No. It's called arm ache.

I, for one, wouldn't want to be holding my arms up to touch my screen for hours upon hours a day.

[Grey Acumen @ Jul 21st 2008 11:45PM]

actually, I see 4 things with varying degrees of accuracy and ease of use that when combined could easily make the mouse become completely obsolete:

1.) Facial recognition(Eye position calculation) - basically, use a built in camera to monitor the position of the users eyes and let that control the mouse cursor. There could be a couple extra keys added to the keyboard to handle activating this and left and right click options, but hte mouse itself wouldn't be needed at that point.
Pros: allows an instinctive control of mouse position
Cons: software still isn't quite up to handling this properly without high end equipment.

2.) cerebral input - it's already been shown to work, they have helmets that can actually allow the user to think the commands tehy want to perform.
Pros: can replace mouse, and possibly even keyboard as well. could become even more responsive and easier to control than eye tracking or mouse.
cons: Who wants to have to wear a helmet to use their computer? Plus it takes serious training to learn to think properly to use it

3.) touch screen - they're already being commonly used, just not as a standard for all computers yet. This allows you to control the computer as if writing in a notepad with a pencil
Pros: Already proven technology that is being commonly, though not standardly, used.
Cons: requires one to hold their arm up for extended periods during use. Would not work comfortably with games.

4.) Wii remote - It works incredibly well with games and actually can act as a 3d mouse, registering both height, width and depth.
Pros: proven technology, and cheap. Controller is only about $40 and adding 2 leds into a computer monitor would only increase costs by about $5 per screen.
cons: only replaces mouse with what is essentially a better mouse. doesn't actually get rid of the need to hold the input device.

Personally, i think that right now Wii remote combined with Touch screen would be the best solution, but eventually, eye tracking combined with cerebral input could become incredibly versatile, allowing eye tracking to handle mouse position while cerebral input handling actual mouseclicks and keystrokes.

[Sarig @ Jul 21st 2008 7:14PM]

I love options in input methods myself, so I think this is all good :)

[Zach @ Jul 21st 2008 11:33PM]

as do i.
the more choices the better, because constantly i find myself switching between touchpad and mouse on my laptop.
a wii like interface, or perhaps multitouch would be fun as well :D (though, unlikely for the moment, as the $ factor .. you get my point.

[maty @ Jul 22nd 2008 5:04AM]

Did anyone stop to think about us graphic designers?

Try using Max, Maya, Cinema 4D, whatever - using alternatives other than a mouse (and no, tablets don't suffice).

Its just not going to happen. My finger and face cannot perform the pixel-precision I need.

Bunch of BS if y'ask me.

[Hafk @ Jul 21st 2008 7:15PM]

No touch interface has ever done for me what a mouse has. Maybe it is just me. And facial recognition is bound to have too many bugs to be useful.

[RedBull Runner @ Jul 21st 2008 11:31PM]

You can pry my MX Revolution from my cold, dead, hands...

[tyler @ Jul 22nd 2008 10:14AM]

"No touch interface has ever done for me what a mouse has."

Agreed. I would be pretty sad if I didn't have a mouse anymore.

[TIMMAH! @ Jul 21st 2008 7:23PM]

The mouse doesn't leave oily finger prints on the screen...

[Jeffrey @ Jul 21st 2008 7:23PM]

Do they really expect me to game on a trackpad?

[Evan @ Jul 21st 2008 8:03PM]

They expect you to game on a Playstation/Xbox style game controller, or maybe a Wii style remote.

[david_topping @ Jul 21st 2008 7:24PM]

Given the reported demise is restricted to laptops and home entertainment centres I don’t think this Gartner prediction is too surprising, although I’d love to know what the Gartner probability rating is.

I for one would love to get rid of, or at least augment, my mouse. I’ve used touchscreens and mobile touchscreens, pen and tablet based systems and become addicted to Smartboards. All can add to the mouse but as yet I don’t see the definitive “better way” that will oust the mouse. Until you can point at (pun intended) the technology that will actually supplant the mouse for a given purpose I think this is going to be another Gartner prediction which may not actually happen.

[Benson @ Jul 21st 2008 8:27PM]

Well, I've got an HP tx2000 (pretty newish, so maybe I'm still under the novelty spell), and I can say that using the touchscreen+digitizer has almost completely replaced the touchpad. And I still have the touchpad for ticklish operations (for which I have the sensitivity deliberately low, as I never need to sweep across the screen with it), so I'm really feeling no need for a mouse. So for laptops, I'd say that covers it, for me at least. All we need is for the tablet/laptop hybrids (with digitizer, not just touch, as you know that makes a world of difference!) to become the ubiquitous models, and they probably will be within 5 years.

For entertainment, mice are already out; remote controls are arrays of buttons, and where physical remotes aren't available, a keyboard with media keys does pretty well.

Of course, the day I'm reaching around my desk tapping on dual 24" touchscreen monitors is the day I quit; mice (or recognizable equivalents) won't be leaving the desktop/workstation scene for a long time. And don't even think about FPSes with no mouse...

[ean @ Jul 21st 2008 7:25PM]

Actual title: Gartner analyst are smoking the good stuff again..

[Dat Nguyen @ Jul 21st 2008 7:26PM]

I also remember Gartner had a white paper saying wifi will never take off...

[roole @ Jul 21st 2008 10:13PM]

Cite, please?

[hiko36 @ Jul 22nd 2008 1:48AM]

@ Roole

Google is a wonderful tool... The article you are looking for was number two on my results when I typed in "Gartner" and "Wifi".

[Mindfield @ Jul 21st 2008 7:27PM]

Mr. Prentice needs a reality check. Multitouch taking part in replacing the mouse? Have you ever leaned over your desk for long periods of time to manipulate on-screen objects? It's all very fine and well if you've got a nice easel-style display, but we're not in Star Trek territory yet. Neural interface actuators? Sorry, Gibson's era hasn't arrived yet either. Facial recognition? Where's that going to come into play? Look at what you want to click and stick your tongue our for a left click, or wiggle your nose for a right? Perform a cunnilingus manoeuvre to scroll? No, dude. Just ... no. The mouse isn't going anywhere. All of these things may become adjuncts to the mouse and keyboard to one degree or another -- just like trackballs and touchpads have -- but the mouse is still going to be one of the two primary input devices for the foreseeable future.

[hrt @ Jul 21st 2008 8:14PM]

10/10, full of win.

[navstar @ Jul 21st 2008 7:29PM]

Considering that my finger is substantially wider and more opaque than a cursor, I can't see doing illustrations with my finger.

For general navigation, it's cool. But for detail work -- forget it. Can you imagine trying to select a polygon edge with your finger? Or adjusting a bezier spline?

What I would like to see are Wacom Cintiqs replace the mouse!

[fred @ Jul 21st 2008 7:29PM]

"analyst says..."

That alone should set everyone's BS meter off.

[neofolklore @ Jul 22nd 2008 7:44AM]

"I already looked it up on snopes.com, I swear this actually works"

[mr tee @ Jul 21st 2008 7:30PM]

Why get rid of something that does it's job perfectly as intended - Seems like change for the sake of it. Not progress as the buttons will still need pressing just using your finger on a screen, you could use a mouse like people have done for years.

For the end user it's also less cost effective. Mouse stops working - go buy another, very cheaply. Touch screen stops working - better have extended warranty!

Everyone will be going round with screen wipes in their pockets because every device will have grubby fingerprints on.

[Bviper @ Jul 21st 2008 7:31PM]

There's going to be A LOT of comments here about how a mouse will always be superior, but I think most people are still thinking in the traditional computing method. Using windows (the method of interface, not the OS by Microsoft) a mouse might be more effective, but when an operating system is designed to be touched it completely changes how you interact with it. Take the iPhone for example, if it was built using a traditional phone interface it would be horrible. Hard to touch exactly what your want, etc, but it wasn't.

I believe the mouse is on the way out and welcome it to. You also don't necessarily have to have your monitors mounted the way they are now either. You could have two screens the main one and, your touch screen which can display a keyboard, or a copy of the main screen for touching purposes built into the desk.

The possibilities are endless and thinking in the traditional sense, yes a touch screen would suck for current OS designs.

[BigD145 @ Jul 21st 2008 7:40PM]

Ah, you mean pushing buttons. Not all programs involve pushing buttons. I suppose we could go back to programming images with a keyboard, but that gets tedious. I'm not entirely certain how you're going to get a finger to move a slider with enough precision to do frame by frame video editing.

[Sora @ Jul 21st 2008 8:49PM]

Call me when you can do batshit amazing photoshops using your chubby fingers on a touchscreen.

[Benson @ Jul 21st 2008 8:53PM]

@sora

I bet I can do photoshops that look like batshits with a touchscreen and fingers. In fact, I bet that's _all_ I can do.

[badenglishihave @ Jul 21st 2008 7:41PM]

Something tells me "Neural Interface Actuators" won't be the device of choice for computer gamers.

[LC @ Jul 21st 2008 7:45PM]

Even if it was, it actually requires a mouse to aim in the game.

[LC @ Jul 21st 2008 7:44PM]

This guy has obviously never played an FPS on a computer.

[Plothole @ Jul 22nd 2008 2:47AM]

Or just about any game that has a 3D camera for that matter.

[Taylor @ Jul 22nd 2008 3:20AM]

Shit, I just bought a mouse pad last week!
I must be pretty behind

[nathan.wong @ Jul 21st 2008 7:45PM]

If the cursor moves by our thoughts (CAT) then wouldn't that be considered cheating in FPS (first person shooters) since the cursor will be instantaneously aimed at someone's head and the fire button pressed? I tell ya, old people like me that don't have the quick reflexes of a cat anymore will be at a true disadvantage.

[Abuzar Baloach @ Jul 21st 2008 11:01PM]

If you have bad reflexes then you are at a disadvantage even with a mouse.

[Wiigee @ Jul 21st 2008 7:45PM]

Bulllhocky! If anything i think computers will get less complex in terms of UI. There is too much to go wrong with facial recognition, mice are simple and easy, thats what people want with a computer.

[GaryZ @ Jul 21st 2008 7:46PM]

no thanks, I'd rather get repetitive strain injury on my wrist than on my eyeball or facial muscle...

[yoshi @ Jul 21st 2008 7:46PM]

Does he get PAID for stuff like that? Where can I get one of them thar jobs? I can pull predictions outta my butt with the best of them.

[DRoseDARs @ Jul 21st 2008 8:03PM]

I really wish people who make these kinds of "authoritative" predictions were required by law to bet their entire life savings on them. We'd be hearing a lot less of such predictions as a result.

[Mark @ Jul 21st 2008 8:03PM]

Too lazy to be moving my arms around a touch screen...sorry, I will always use the mouse unless they come up with something that doesn't leave my arm tired after 5 minutes..

[icepop4who @ Jul 21st 2008 8:12PM]

if everyone start using tablet pcs then it could happen, but what are the chances of that happening

possible, not probable

[Montusama @ Jul 21st 2008 8:15PM]

Read about this a couple days ago, i don't think the mouse will give up that easily, though not the same, look at 3.5in floppies, its mostly dead yet it keeps kicking

the mouse won't give up without a fight....is what i'm trying to say

[karel7 @ Jul 22nd 2008 5:27AM]

And, with the 3.5in, we were talking in capacity: It was bound to become obsolete! Just as today's blu-rays are going to be, some day...

But when it comes to UI, the simpler and more versatile, the better! And it's also a matter of money: who's going to invest in something to replace something that's being used by everyone and is much simpler and is much more versatile? And even if you devise some new, ass-cracking computing method, my bet is, the mouse will still be applicable and better!

Until the day when hologramatic pictures where you can point at thin air and be able to select one pixel out of the rest are $15 each, i'm sticking to my mouse!

[neofolklore @ Jul 22nd 2008 7:46AM]

except booting from USB stick isn't COMPLETELY standard yet and I can't flash my xbox360's firmware without a floppy disk because I can't boot from USB stick.

[Alex @ Jul 21st 2008 8:15PM]

unless they come out with something for gamers to the mouse is my way i hate controls on PC games its pointless!

[xValentine @ Jul 21st 2008 8:20PM]

Those kind of analyst are just a bunch of idiots and they are the same to people who predicts disasters, and fails.