Number port stats suggest curious trends in iPhone 3G launch
By Chris Ziegler 
posted July 22nd 2008 1:54PM
posted July 22nd 2008 1:54PM
Sure, Apple alleges to have flipped over a million iPhone 3Gs at this point, but what does that mean? The devil's in the details, as always; yes, true, the first one took 74 days to reach that same milestone, but it was available in less than one-twentieth the number of countries and an even smaller fraction of carriers. Hell, the very definition of "sale" is under scrutiny here, with some suggesting that Apple's making reference to the number of phones it's sold to its carrier partners, not end users -- a metric that would make sense from Cupertino's perspective since Apple's payday technically ends there.Here's where it gets interesting -- Engadget has obtained a handful of stats regarding number ports in and out of T-Mobile USA handled by a national wholesaler. Specifically, we have data surrounding the launch of the first-gen iPhone and the iPhone 3G, and get this: of more than 1,000 ports in total, ports to AT&T represented under 40 percent of the firm's total outflow in the days surrounding the 3G's launch, versus nearly 70 percent the last time around. Furthermore, they took roughly the same number of inbound ports from AT&T during the same period, meaning that T-Mobile effectively lost no net ground due to the 3G's launch. Granted, the porting stats from a single wholesaler represent just a microcosm of the big picture, but even accounting for some loss of precision when you extrapolate that data, you're looking at a pretty significant downturn in interest from T-Mobile subscribers. We still think Apple's probably laughing all the way to the bank either way -- and iPhone 3Gs are sold out virtually everywhere right now -- but you've got to wonder if AT&T's not freaking out a little bit at the number of new subscribers it managed to entice, and whether its competitors are all breathing cautious sighs of relief at some surprisingly reasonably churn rates.
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hey Oscar5453:
do you realize that adding a bunch of characters before and after your posts makes you look like an asshole?
...and gets you low-ranked, though i'm sure you don't care about that.
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First, you'd have to unlock it, which hasn't been done yet. Second, T-Mobile's 3G service won't work on the iPhone 3G due to the difference in frequency bands between T-Mo's and AT&T's systems. EDGE will still work on T-Mobile, however.
So unless the GPS is an absolute necessity, you're better off buying a used Rev 1 iPhone and unlocking that.
I've been with Verizon since early 2000, and am one week from the end of my latest two year contract. To avoid the full ETF, I have to wait until the contract is up on 7/25 before I can port.
I suspect a lot of people are in the same boat as me and are burning the last few weeks/months of their contract to avoid the ETF.
And, for what it's worth, for all the huffing and puffing folks to about Verizon's superior coverage, I haven't seen it. AT&T's voice and 3G coverage around town and in the sticks it every bit as good, and the audio quality of the iPhone, even on the Edge network, blows away my old Moto Razr V3m on Verizon.
My old Samsung M610 had much better signal and much better 3G reception EVERYWHERE on Sprint, compared to my 3g iPhone.
but it doesn't really matter, because the devices on the Sprint network are a joke. (and no amount of 3G would make the browsers on those devices suck any less.)
This story doesn't make any sense. Dude what about #s from Sprint & Verizon and all the little companies outhere???? or did apple at some point came out and said that they ported 1 million #s from T Mobile customers alone???? i guess i didn't heard that one
Mr. Engadget, the reason is simple. Just like Windows Vista's major competitor is Windows XP, so it is for the iPhone. When I was in line, many of the persons in line already had an original iPhone. AT&T allowed them to cancel their current contract (the original iPhone was not subsidized so they don't lose anything by cancelling their contracts). Instead, AT&T nets an additional year from these customers because they're forced to sign on for another 2-year contract. Of the 10 people around me in line, I would say about half were showing off apps on their old iPhone while waiting for the new one. No surprises there.
Now, I'd be interested to see if AT&T would be so generous in allowing iPhone 3G customers out of their contract next year when the next iPhone comes out being that the current iPhone 3G phones are now carrier subsidized.
This is exactly it. I suspect the majority of T-Mobile users who were interested in the iPhone jumped ship with the 2G version. There are advantages to switching to AT&T with the 3G version - you can't use T-Mobile's 3G with the new version for example so the "unlocked iPhone" route isn't going to wash, but most people who would make that decision have already bought the older phone, and now the question is whether they want to upgrade or not.
It seems to be forgotten by many geek sites like this, but actually the iPhone is not some compelling, perfect, phone that appeals to everyone. The damn thing doesn't even do MMS. It attracts a particular audience. It's no panacea.
Personally, I think Its because T-mo has the best customer service around and fair rate plan pricing. I was one of the folks that jumped to AT&T for the original iPhone and it wasn't long before I came back to T-mo. I realized that I was paying too much at AT&T and that I like my Blackberry better (for a lot of reasons.) I'm an attorney and I'm out of the office a lot for work so I need something dependable and the iPhone didn't cut it as a business device. That being said, it's a beautiful phone and is great for entertainment. If and when they make it available for T-Mobile, greatly improve the battery life, make corporate email easier, and make MMS and voice dialing standard I will consider getting another iPhone. Until then, I'm hanging on to my Curve. But then, I don't mind keeping my iPod separate from my phone.
I think it's because of the GSM nature of the two carriers. Peeps are free to hop back and forth (with jailbroken phones), so maybe some people picked up old iPhones and bailed over to TMo?
I believe this will hit VZW harder this time than last because a) VZW has more customers to give now...especially unhappy sprint types who wanted the 3G? b) I think the reputation of the previous iPhone + the added 3G was too attractive for the trendy crowd.
@Ed, I'm sure your right...Sprint would lose customers even if the iPhone was rotary dial. They will get it the worst.
As a current AT&T 8525 customer w/8GB MicroSD, who was waiting for the 3G iPhone and 2.0 firmware to solve the obvious shortcommings of the 1st iPhone, I am terribly dissapointed. My wife has the first iPhone and it was clear that the interface was brilliant and it dosen't need to be reset every other day like my WM6 8525. However, the lack of cut & paste, laptop modem support, more expensive monthly plan, lack of a base (nickle and dimeing BS), MMS messaging, crappy Exchange integration (nice first try but way short), loss of current Db's to Exchange DB's, no office attachment open/edit support (they should use open office) and for the love of god... where it the USB drive support like every iPod since iPod's. The app store is nice and will only get better...or more crowded. Nobody can argue that the iPhone is a brilliant first phone from Apple, but it isn't as if they didn't have other phones to look to for features. My buddy picked up a iPhone 3G and all I can say is 2.0.1 had better be out soon. But I will be waiting for the HTC Touch Pro or to see what Apple can do with another year.
AMEN brother,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
this is pretty interesting one
T-Mobile will have mass 3G launch in about 10 weeks
I know some friends own original iPhone, and all have no intention to "upgrade" to 3G version, because
1. the plan price is not affordable
2. bad att 3G performance
Very TRUE......I bought the IPHONE 3G and plan to return it. I get 2 bars and a lot of dead spots, dropped calls here in Apple's own backyard.....don't let these other fools on here tell you that its the PERFECT phone because its far from it.
To you apple freaks!: You guys really need to wake up and realize that Apple is holding back SIMPLE features like MMS to sucker you fools with the next IPHONE.
I don't think that the coverage problem in Apples fault. Sure, Apple has made some faults, but few seem to be blaming AT&T for the lackluter 3G speeds and coverage. And on the point of people being "Suckers" Apple sure didn't have to release the 2.0 software for 2G phones. Matter of fact, there is little reason to get the 3G phone if you have the original. And rest assured if Apple releases MMS support, I would bet that both the 2G and 3G phones get it. If Apple wanted you to buy the new 3G phone, they would have introduced all these new features in the 2.0 software with a disclaimer that it only will run on the 3G version.
I just switched from a T-Mobile Dash (WinMo) to the 3G and am very happy that I did. The iPhone is hands-down a better device than WinMo can support. Somehow, I survive without MMS (email anyone?); somehow I survive without cut and paste (wasn't on my Dash either). But the ease-of-use and the neato GPS/Google maps and the iPod and the...make this a fantastic device.
Yes, AT&T's 3G is a little spotty but I expect that will improve over time. At least they have a full roll-out. I expect TMo will have a long, slow, difficult 3G rollout. Too bad TMo's 3G and handset offerings don't match their excellent customer service and rate plans. But the reality is, I'd rather spend a bit more money and have a better device and experience.
@David Robinson
even though Dash winmo 5 didn't have copy/paste, there is an application (i think vito) that can be installed to get that feature.
while if you upgrade Dash to winmo 6, it came with copy/paste (as far as i remember, its been a while since i used Dash)
I switched from T-mo - have always had unlocked phones since theirs are even worse than Verizon. We only went 3g in my town a week before the iphone3g was released. I just dropped my data from my Verizon touch; evdo seems really slow in comparison, and besides I hardly get any signal on it at work, whereas I get 4 bars on the iphone. Yeah, T-mo has great rates but they will never have 3g where I live and who wants a frequency that nobody else has; I like being able to get an unlocked phone that works with 3g anywhere.
3G frequency no one else has?
850/1900 is NO WHERE ELSE but Mexico and Canada and a handful of 3rd world Central American countries.
1700/2100 while the 1700 is EXCLUSIVE to the USA and Canada at this moment in time, ALL of South America has banded they will also free the 1700 to built out on that, making 1/2 the world compatible. Also 2100 AWS downlink is closer to "world 3G" which is 2100 downlink by the way, over the 1900 downlink 3G that AT&T and Rogers Canada use. Where as the rest of the world use 1900 UPLINK. So, what happens here, 1700/2100 Down/Up is making it easier for manufactures to manipulate phones in stock, ones that people already desire, more "Americanized" for our use.
So, again, "no one else has" some spectrum frequency in 1700/2100 again?
I think two very important numbers to watch will be a) contract extensions to upgrade from original to new iPhone and b) down the road look at the # of people who continue the data service when their contracts are up.
I'll grant you my 'smart' phone isn't a sexy iPhone, but after two years of paying $85/mo I'm tossing it for a regular phone. Yeah inet on demand is great.. but I don't use anywhere near enough of it to justify the $$$ and I think many of those who have gone for an iPhone because its the cool
thing to have will come to the same conclusion especially if the economy stays in the crapper.
ANSWER...
AT&T buys Tmobile and adds more subscribers making this argument mute. :)
For those of you who are bashing T-Mobiles 3G build out, you all might want to research something...
They already built 50% of their network PRIOR to winning the AWS auction in anticipation of winning. Had they NOT won, who do you think would wanna buy all that 3G HSPA equipment, and equipment in many areas AT&T lacks 3G currently? Uhh..AT&T
T-Mobile 3G is supposed to launch in over 25 of the top markets by October 1st 2008 - lighting up a bigger area then AT&T did when they launched. Their launch speed is 7.3mbps, where as AT&T is still selling 3.6 to customers.... Note something special coming on here....
It has been almost 2 years since the first auction of AWS, and while T-Mobile choses NOT to do what AT&T/Cingular/at&t does with its spotty limited 3G launch, they have a plan to light up the ENTIRE FCC cleared network at once, and again, group the next markets together to light them. Sure beats lighting up 6 markets at a time a'la AT&T. Not to mention they dont need to built out as much, as its been built for almost 3 years.
I will agree, T-Mobile 3G phones currently SUCK, but they are NOT marketed as 3G, nor will they be in the foreseeable future. Trust me when I say, T-Mobile knows what the hell they are doing. I was with them for 5 years, went to Sprint to compensate for DATA speed and roaming for the next year, then its back to T-Mobile, because I know they will have the best network in the USA when they are done.
I am one of the few invested several hundreds for HSDPA gear for T-Mobile
it works as I expected in NYC, and never regret a bit
it loads fast like DSL at home, no hiccup, no slowdown
it delivers 1Mbps (700-1000kbps constantly)
Well, the fact that T-Mobile is on track to have 3G in my market before AT&T does really doesn't give me much faith in AT&T, and makes me wish I could take my 3G iPhone to T-Mobile.
You mean moot?
You mean moot?
I love the iPhone. It's fun and has a lot of cool tools. I had 1 on ATT and an unlocked version on T-Mobile. When the 3G came out, I thought the faster 3G would be fantastic. NOT!
The 3G signal is very weak in my area which means the phone works real hard to try to maintain that signal, sucking my battery dry 3 times a day. By switching off 3G, I only have to charge twice a day.
My original iPhone was once a day on heavy use days and sometimes once every 2-3 days on low use.
Also, I tested 3G downloads side by side with my original iPhone and there was only about 25% faster download.
Since AT&T 3G sucks in my area, I'll probably pay my cancellation fee as soon as there is an unlock the 3G phone, and port that number over to T-Mobile.
Did you take into the fact that maybe some people just got a new contract with at&t and kept their t-mobile phone until their contract expired because the will be damned if they are going to pay $175 in ETFs when they have only3 months lef?t
Sorry but not many people are switching because the iphone 3G is "cheaper". Its not, and people who actually would buy a 3g iphone are usually smart enough to know this. The increased rate offsets the lower up front cost, and people aren't dumb. Apple's advertising is a crime and the stuff they get away with is way worse then anything Microsoft has ever done, yet apple has this "good company" image and MS is considered satanic
I am with Verizon and was willing to pay my ETF and jump to ATT for the iPhone. However two things stopped me: The horrible battery life of the iPhone. Secondly, ATT has no 3G service where I live, BUT still forces me to pay the 3G plan. I love the look of it, it's sexy (I have the iTouch so I am familiar with it's operation) and I want an iPhone badly, but my phone has to be perform in the real world as well as be fun. I need from and function.
If the iPhone had a removable battery or ATT didn't force me to a 3G plan when 3G wasn't available...if either of these things would be true, I probably would have overlooked the other and made the jump. Combined they were a deal breaker.
Quick question: Will T-Mobile have the iPhone in a couple of years? I love T-Mobile's plan! I would not switch to ATT, just to get the iPhone.
Hmm.. considering the porting scam that is going on between T-Mo and AT&T i dont find this accurate whatsoever.