Samsung UK exec says Blu-ray "has five years left"
By Donald Melanson 
posted Sep 3rd 2008 6:18PM
posted Sep 3rd 2008 6:18PM
While we can't say if it represents a general sentiment at Samsung or not, the company's UK director of consumer electronics, Andy Griffiths, sure went out on a bit of a limb in a recent interview with Pocket-lint, with him saying that Blu-ray has, to paraphrase David Bowie, only "five years left," and that he "certainly wouldn't give it ten." He did say, however, that he thought 2008 would be Blu-ray's year, adding that "it's going to be huge", and that Samsung is "heavily back-ordered at the moment." As for Samsung's future after Blu-ray's supposed demise, Griffiths seems to think that OLED will be the next big thing, and he's pegging 2010 as a possible date for it to become mainstream and replace LCD. He didn't offer a prediction as to when it will die out though.
[Thanks, Big W]
[Thanks, Big W]
I guess my only question is:
"What does a small town sheriff know about disc technology"?
I agree, and though I'm probably reading the article incorrectly, I'm not sure how the advent and adoption of OLED displays will end Blu-Ray.
No you didn't read it wrong, he just said what Samsung's money maker will be in the future, Engadget misled you in the summary. He never said what he thought would replace blu-ray.
I agree. There are going to be new technologies soon that will replace conventional HD solutions. Good thing I still have good 'ol basic cable and a 32" CRT!
Not as good as peasant vision with a 36" CRT!
I think I win this round. I'm in a better strategically behind the times position than you! Think of all that money being saved from not paying cable bills.
Sounds about right. Things are changing faster than I expected, and its probably because of the stupid war.
Lets see They just came out with 400/500 Gig Discs they havent event hit the market yet once they will this will be huge didnt they Say the same Crap when DVD and CDs came out?
Meanwhile others say Samsung UK exec "has five years left"
more like 5 minutes...
so what will surpass blu-ray disk, people will always want some sort of physical hard copy
Well, with flash memory stick coming down in price, it wouldn't be long before they could be as cheap as discs today.
Samsung exec is an idiot. Yeah, ok blu-ray will have shorter lifespan then DVD. But in reality he doesn't take in account the economy of world. It was bad enough of a struggle to determine which format of HD the world would finally settle for. Imagine telling your consumers in 5 years of investing in this technology that they have to adopt a new format. Chaos.
My realistic prediction is that digital downloads will eventually replace physical disc players in the near future. Right now I have over 300 movies on an external 500GB Lacie drive. It's hooked up to my PS3. I can access any movie with just my remote.
Now that Mr. Samsung Exec. is innovation that can work for the masses.
You can put 25GB on a BluRay disc for under $1, and it'll be under $0.40 in a year or two. USB keys won't be competing with that soon. Besides, even if you got a USB key that cheap, you'd have to duplicate the data onto it. With BluRay, the data is on there when the disc is made.
hopefully digital download will replace blueray. as far as wanting a physical copy of the media... well you will have that on your HDD after you download it... its your choice if you want to copy it to some other media after that point.
Wait, he thinks that blu ray will die and be replaced by OLED? I'm confused....
Ditto, I don't understand the correlation between OLED and Blu-Ray. What do they envision will replace Blu-Ray when OLED is commonplace, and why would OLED and BR be incompatible?
It's just another prediction. They are not meant to be relative in the same context.
He's speaking as a representative of a company selling products, he is predicting the sales will become big in the OLED segment and less so in the BD segment in 5 years.
You have to get your factories and development money in the right spot years before something is on the market after all.
Of course he does make really stupid statements too:
The company has recently announced it's partnered with Yahoo to offer widgets on its internet connected televisions as it tries to turn the television into an information hub of the home rather than the PC.
"The content has to be relevant, but once it is it will make the TV more than a TV", said Griffiths
No mr griffiths, we do NOT want to connect TV's to the internet, we never did, we never will, GET THAT IN YOUR HEAD ALREADY idiots, how often do they have to try that and have it fail before they get it?
@John: Read it again.
"As for Samsung's future after Blu-ray's supposed demise, Griffiths seems to think that OLED will be the next big thing..."
Samsung currently profits from the Blu-ray arena (which makes his comments ludicrous - from alberto: "Imagine telling your consumers in 5 years of investing in this technology that they have to adopt a new format. Chaos."), and after the "demise" of Blu-ray, Samsung, according to the Sheriff of Sam's Town, will find one of its major money-makers to come from the OLED market.
I assume it will be replaced by movie downloads and movies on flash memory
Haven't you heard? They don't want you to make copies of their data. All data will soon be steamed on-demand. Otherwise, be prepared to buy these nifty not so easy to copy USB/ROM drives that will contain their data. Soon, even your OS will be delivered this way.
Once they destroyed internet computers might become obsolete, what's the point really.
Digital distribution for the win!
Not if they keep capping bandwith and they don't get faster fiber connections out to more houses....
Samsung, join a 12 step program. You're just embarassing yourselves.
Blu-Ray will only become obsolete if everyone upgrades their HDTVs en masse to something better. Whether the HDTVs are OLED, LCD, or plasma doesn't matter.
Considering that most people hang onto their TVs until they fail, and then buy something in the same price range as the old set, I would expect that it will be ten years before HDTV is is in 90% of homes, forget about some kind of Really HDTV.
The only thing that has a chance of dethroning Blu-Ray is video on demand, but 1080p HD video on demand is still years away from being practical for a majority of people, and even if it was, people would still want to own physical media.
I predict Blu-Ray will hang around much longer than DVD, probably about the same as VHS.
Yeah I agree 100%...people are still switching over to HDTV...It's going to be at least 5 more yeears before majority of people have a hdtv...they'll buy converter box if they have to until it breaks down. I mean who wants to throw away a perfectly working tv. Then you got to have something to replace bluray for it to die...nothing exist at this time...don't bet on digital download anytime soon. I mean look at the speed now and look at comcast trying to cap the internet. Not to mentioned that even with the existance of bluray...dvd is going strong. So even if there was format to replace it...it will take a long time for people to adopt...frankly the consumer is tired of it and will stick with it for a long time.
Cable companies have been offering SD video-on-demand for years, and that hasn't taken much of a bite out of SD DVDs. So I don't see how anyone expects HD video-on-demand to do much better.
'Ol dude sounds so stupid! Blu-ray ain't goin' nowhere for a minute! With the damn price of gas and this other crap, whose gonna spend their hard earned money just to try and keep up with technology? Go ahead, and see if you don't if end up in credit debt. 25/50GB is good enough for a disk right now. Shit, I can see if we where actaully able to download 50Mb/sec+ of data off the interent! Sayin' that Blu-ray is gonna be a thing of the past is like sayin' in five years you'll also be able to purchase 52" 1080P flat-screen for under $500 dollars. Not goin' to happen. He only sayin' that because he's probably a millionare! Money is all people seem to care about these days...
Howdy! I agre' wit' tha' statemen'! Ain't no blue rays goin' nowhere nohow!
Why would you spend the time and energy typing apostrophes instead of g's? This isn't scripted dialogue you're writing; It's your opinion on a blog.
I'm truly puzzled by that choice.
Anybody have a guess as to how many years Samsung's UK director has left?
yes, the user "required" did here @ 6:30PM EST
Ya screw this whole scratchable disc thing.
Yeah, stupid scratchable discs ... and non machine washable flash drives ... and crashable hard drives ... and breakable internet connections ... there will always be a way to lose data or your access to it, that limitation isn't specific to discs.
I just don't get how he says Blu-Ray will be huge in 2008, but only has five years left. I guess all Blu-Ray players and/or discs are set to turn into pumpkins in 2013?
I'm predicting HD 8-track to replace it
Won't Blu-ray be at it's biggest when the next big format is on the way in? Supermarkets have those machines that rent dvds, and the players cost you just a song these days. I bet HD and broadband penetration combined is still less then DVDs. Not to mention all the isps experimenting with bandwidth caps. Let's see how that'll affect the digital download future. Blu-ray might have 5 years, who knows, but that last year will be a blockbuster for the average consumer who will pay with pennies while the early adopters drop BD and fork over their fat wads of cash for the lastest and greatest.
Five years left to do what? Artificially inflate the value of the PS3 and encourage people to torrent video?
Blu-Ray's hurtin' like a warehouse with no room to spare?
Well the problem is with Blu-Ray you have to cram so many things to store everything in there.
The next format will fail. Format has more to do with how the public accept it than how good it is, betamax failed because people like vhs better, they weren't ready to change. You got a good replacement for bluray...you better wait 10 years because we aint buying it.
I think you guys miss a point, namely, dvd is good enough and has a huge catalog for most people and that there are other, more practical HD distribution methods coming (iTunes, netflix, vudu). I think he was more likely predicting the end of optical storage overall, rather than just blu-ray.
Well, honestly I don't see how this is such a massive statement. I for one have always thought that that Blu-Ray and HD DVD were doomed for failure because for them to prosper the majority of the market would have to switch to a High Definition TV. While HDTVs have come down in price and are so widely available that if your getting a new TV, your getting an HDTV, they haven't actually won over people due to their limited support and additional cost, like if you have cable/satellite TV, less than 5% of your channels will be HDTV, and you may have to pay extra money for them as well as buy more expensive hardware (receivers) to get this service. Plus Blu Ray doesn't really bring anything new to the party rather than extra space and a higher resolution, where as DVDs were a big deal because they had all this extra bonus content added onto it. Not to mention that Blu-Ray has yet to make its way into mainstream PCs, though we should give it some time due to the fact that it won the format war only a few months ago.
Plus with the rise of digital distribution of everything from games to music, how many people will honestly need a physical copy of a movie when it would be much easier for the consumer to pay online download and then play on whatever player they so wish, making this tactic more portable than any physical format ever could be, not to mention that its cheaper for the companies themselves, one doesn't have to pay for shipping, manufacture or licensing of the disks and all you have to do is give whatever store your selling at a cut of the profits. Developers/film studios/independent artists could even sell their work directly cutting out the need of a publisher.
Color TV will never catch on.
first of all, blu-ray has to become popular before you can say so many good thigns about it. i dont know anyone who watches blu-ray movies. the thoughtprocess being "why am i going to pay 400 bucks for a new player and 5 to 10 bucks more for each movie when i can use my dvd player?" it makes sense too. the average consumer cant see the difference between dvd and bluray and even those who own ps3s dont even buy bluray movies. winning the format war doesnt mean anything if the masses dont actually make use of the product.
oh and to all of you who cant seem to read very well, the man says that the future of SAMSUNG will be in oled's. samsung makes PRODUCTS, and the next big product to make a difference in society will be oleds. please reread the article before you go calling a wildly successful samsung exec's, "stupid old fuck(s) with money"
I agree that in many situations, the 'average user' (who is this guy anyway?) wouldn't tell the difference between blu-ray and DVD but when you see the difference on a big enough screen, it's mind blowing. The problem I have with the statement that it's only got 5 years left is this. I just put a 135 inch screen in my house. Now, I feel that this screen is just about as big as I would ever want to go unless I win the lottery or something and have room for 10 rows of stadium seating. Anyway, when you watch a movie on it, it's like looking out a window. It's crystal clear. How big a screen do these people think the consumer is going to put in their home to make neccessary a higher quality format? I don't care if it's 5 or even 20 years down the road, do they anticipate the 'average user' to have a big enough room for a 300 inch screen in their home? This is no exaggeration, on my 135 inch screen, the pixels are 1 millimeter squared and that's pretty small.
I think hes correct. Since the war ended blu-ray has been quiet. I mean, go to your local best buy... blu-ray is like on a kiosk. It looked bigger when you had HD-DVD on the same shelf... now it seems hidden against ALL DVD movies. Digital downloads will only get faster and by the time blu-ray can but a dent in DVD, it'll be too late.
They cant come close to DVD in 5 years.
Not at my local store.
yeah same here there is a huge blu-ray section at any store i have been to
His comment is bizarre. He basically says BluRay isn't long for this world, he's more hyped on OLED.
They don't even compete. Weird.
With Comcast setting their caps at 5-10 BluRay equivalents per month right now, I don't think download can compete with BluRay. But 5 years is a lot of time, perhaps this will change.
I'm calling it, this is the best Engadget music reference yet.
And too late I realized I could have gone with "So many investors sighing."
Digital Media ? Digital Distribution ?
As far as I can remember, not every country has a great/fast internet. Hard Drives are not that cheap as well. Especially those 2.5'' laptop HDs.
Optical Discs will stay for as longer as you guys think. You just want digital media because your internet is fast. but if you put yourself in the position of people living on a country with ISP that offers shitty internet speed, I wonder if you will still like the idea of Digital Media/Distribution.
"Griffiths seems to think that OLED will be the next big thing, and he's pegging 2010 as a possible date for it to become mainstream and replace LCD."
I don't know what kind of crack this guy is smoking. Most people don't even have an LCD TV yet, let alone an HD TV of any form.
Honestly, HD is just a catch phrase (ackronym?) that's thrown around to try and sell the stuff. Mostly sports addicts get HD because of the simple reason that a lot of sports are broadcasted in HD. The majority of broadcasted media isn't broadcasted in HD, or is upscaled. Furthermore, even the technically-clueless know this, which is one of the barriers between switching.
DVD and non-HD are fine for most people. The only way people will switch within the time frame this guy is talking, is if movies are released only on Blu-ray. Such a move would hurt movie studios more than they can afford right now.
Personally the fact that HD is LCD (or heavy expensive powerhungry plasma) does in fact stop me from considering getting a HD TV.
So yeah OLED in the same price bracket would increase sales.
wait, his name is ANDY GRIFFITHS?
Awesome.
Wait, his name is ANDY GRIFFITHS?
Awesome.
Anyone remember DVHS?
Tapes at 1080i!!!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D-VHS
It is irrelevant what people actually buy people like to rent movies unless there is a particular favorite they watch over and over again. people like to rent and many rent with netflix which charges the same price whether you rent blu-ray or dvd so if you can afford or already have the player you can get blu-ray for no extra cost. there is no reason not to.
It's funny. By the time Blu-ray came into play, I had already largely stopped buying DVDs. Optical media for movies just seems like a step back. I think the main job of the movie industry right now is to properly monetize digital downloads.
As for capping, that is what competition is all about. There are alternatives to Comcast in many areas, and more are coming.
Digital downloads will NOT become the main thing any time soon.
They will have to some kind of DRM and DRM is dead as far as I'm concerned.
Plus you don't have a case with a sleeve. There's something about actually having the physical media to play.
This is what having a Movie collection is all about.
It's all very fine having 200 films on a HD but when it breaks you lose the lot.
When a company goes bust, merges, reorganises and your PC tries to download a new licence and can't, you're stuffed.
For any kind of solid state ram to take over currently you would need a 64 Gigabyte stick to cost $0.50. It's not going to happen.
Even by the time 64 Gig is $2.50 (about 5 - 6 years), it A: will still be too expensive and B: I suspect, not big enough as by then we will need 1 Terabyte which will be about $100. It ain't gonna happen.
Discs are here to stay and a good job too. My DVD / Blu-Ray shelf would look pretty bare without them and I may have to put ornaments on there instead... ARRRRGGGGHHHHHHHH!!
You could easily double the resolution of Blu-Ray buy using TDK's new 4 layer discs and spinning the disc twice as fast.
Apparently these discs will work on most existing players.
P.S I'm from the UK better known as Great Britain or The Land of Hope and Glory (or at least it was until Tony Blair took over), but I have used USD as I have a feeling most of you guys are American.
Sorry I spelt the word organise correctly! ..... JOKE!! :-)
Sony execs, "Samsung said what?!, lets sue'em!"