Woz says the iPod will "die out after a while" like radios and Walkmans
By Nilay Patel 
posted Oct 7th 2008 7:04PM
posted Oct 7th 2008 7:04PM
Uncle Woz is stirring things up today in an interview with The Telegraph, saying that he thinks "the iPod has sort of lived a long life at number one, things like, if you look back to transistor radios and Walkmans, they kind of die out after a while... they get real cheap and then they are not selling as much." That's certainly an interesting parallel to draw, since the iPod is unquestionably the market leader and the recent updates to the nano and classic weren't particularly overwhelming -- but we've got to disagree here and say that the metaphor doesn't quite work. Walkmans and radios were standalone products that didn't really change over time, while the iPod is clearly evolving into a compelling standalone computing platform -- and it's tied to iTunes, which, hate it or love it, is the most popular content store out there. Sure, things could change dramatically -- competitors like the Zune are getting way better, subscription music could finally take off, and DRM is slowly going away (at least for music) -- but it's hard to see Apple getting baited into a brand-tarnishing price war or simply letting the iPod fade away without putting up a fight. We'll see, we suppose -- any of you willing to throw down some bold predictions?
[Via Wired]
It's funny how Jobs and Gates have to deal with their counterparts. I kind of notice that they are never around each other, Gates and Ballmer and Jobs and Woz, does anyone else notice?
Gates/Ballmer IS NOT THE SAME THING as jobs/iWoz.
Jobs/iWOZ is like George w bush/karl rove. Karl rove is the brains behind the operations and bush is the "show". Similarly jobs is the "Show" who comes out on TV iwoz is the real deal
I don't totally agree. Jobs is not only the "show" but also a smart salesman. I mean come on how well do you think the ipod would selling without Jobs' expert marketing skills. On the other hand Gates is a genius while Ballmer is a pathetic salesman.
Here is the proof: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GL4hyATkQ74
eh, there is a difference between "the ipod will die out" and " IM GOING TO F@#KING KILL GOOGLE!" *throws chair*
Jimmy Carter had Bill Carter. Blill Clinton had Roger Clinton. Jobs has Woz.
Jobs - Woz relationship is nothing like Gates - Stev-o relationship. A more appropriate analogy would be Gates and Paul Allen. Jobs screwed Woz for couple of grands (Google: Jobs Woz Atari) while Billy G was happily planning on splitting Allen's share in MSFT while Allen was battling Hodgkin's disease.
This is like Obi Wan Kenobi (Jobs) and Darth Vader (Woz). They used to be friends, now the crazy guy blames his old friend from everything that has happened to him...
Woz needs to shut up and go take a nap. By his own admission, he would still be working at HP making calculators if it wasn't for Steve Jobs.
From "iWoz: Computer Geek to Cult Icon."
"A few day after that, venture capitalists Steve had contacted started to come by. One of them was Don Valentine at Sequoia... Well, he turned us down, but he did get us in touch with a guy named Mike Markkula... He was truly interested. He asked us who we were, what our backgrounds were, what our goals were with Apple, where we thought it might go. And he indicated some interest in financing us. He was talking about $250,000 or thereabouts to build 1,000 machines..."
"Well, after Mike agreed to do our business plan—after he started working on it—he asked to talk to me. He said, "Okay, Steve. You know you have to leave Hewlett-Packard... So I decided I wouldn't do Apple after all. I would stay at HP for my full-time job and design computers for fun. I went to the cabana—Mike had a cabana on his property—on ultimatum day and told Mike and Steve what I'd decided. I told them no. I'd thought about it, and I'd come to the conclusion that I wasn't going to leave HP. I remember Mike was very cool about it. He just shrugged and said, "Okay, Fine." He was really terse about it. It was like he thought, okay, fine, he would just get what Apple needed somewhere else. But Steve was upset. He felt strongly that the Apple II was the computer they should go with."
"Within a couple of days my phone started ringing. I started getting phone calls at work and home from my dad, my mom, my brother, and various friends. Just phone call after phone call. Every one of them told me I'd made the wrong decision. That I should go with Apple because, after all, $250,000 is a lot of money. It turned out that Steve had talked them all into calling me. Apparently he thought I needed an intervention."
I love Woz, but he is NOT a tech visionary. He was just the "build it" guy for Jobs.
I wish Woz would quit trying to predict the future - he's about as good at it as Gates. Which is to say, not very good.
the ipod as a stand alone mp3 player may over time become unnecessary since it doesnt make sence to have a phone and a dedicated mp3 player stuffing your pockets. Thats why apple had to evolve to the iphone for ease of use. Biggest problem we run into is battery life, the more we demand our portables to do the shorter the life. most phones can play mp3s and have 3g or edge connections that work just fine. just need to make it last longer. ipod so far is a one trick pony.
he has a point, and it will be interesting to see if the man is right. although the ipod has been around for years now, do any of you really think it will happen within the next five years? I mean to a certain extent Woz has a point, its kind of like a a+b=c formula that after time, things just come and go
Depends on what he means by go away. The iPod will evolve, as it already has, into the Touch and the iPhone and next into more advanced computing than that. It will become so minaturized and cheap that you'll have a mac in your pocket, bring your own keyboard and monitor.
Le Big Mac has it right. We may not know it as the iPod, but isn't that why the Steve called pointed to the phone and called it the best iPhone ever made? (which it's not but that's another matter.)
Why carry two devices when one can do both functions as well. The iPhone currently fails in this (IMHO) however we're only on number two, and essentially, model one.
And finally, with that out there, I still say the iPod has years of life yet, because as long as there is a decent sized PMP market, the iPod will be at the top if it.
Le Big Mac and JeffEd are both right. It's fairly obvious that Apple is only using the iPod classic to buy time until it becomes feasible to have similar storage capacity on the iPod touch – they didn't even refresh the iPod classic hardware this year. The iPod is now a mobile computing platform, not just a PMP.
it also hasn't gotten any cheaper
The quality has though.
Remember the iPod Nano 3G (screen twist), iPod Nano 2G exploding battery or the way it looks old after a week of usage due to the shiny backplate :).
I'm so getting Low Ranked for this :)
I beg to differ. My gen 3 40 gig iPod cost me about $500. The closest comparable product sold now, the iPod Classic has three times the storage space and it's half the price.
PHAHA! Are you joking! It HAS gotten a lot cheaper. While they are still expensive they are getting less expensive then they used to be. Think about it, the iPhone for example, had a starting price of 500 or 600 dollars. they are now at 199 and 299! The nano's didn't used to start at 129 either. The shuffle is only 50 dollars now!
@Ben
You do know that the iPhone was started at that superficial price point to allow Apple to mark it down like you're getting a deal. Also the pricing plans went up. So you actually loose over the course of your two-year ($75+/month) plan.
Thank God I have Sprint EVDO at $37/month with unlimited nights and weekends at 7PM, unlimited roaming :) (basically I'm on the Verizon network for free), unlimited internet, unlimited texting. Now that's a deal with my Treo 800w.
@ happy_penguen
you spent $500 on a 40GIG mp3 player .... ha, idiot
@Olu: $500 for a 40 Gig player was the going price in 2002, but you were probably still in kindergarten, so your ignorance is excused.
Heheheh....
:D
JAmerica, remember they didn't go up everywhere in the world. The tariff is still the exact same over here in the UK we just got a cheaper one added as well.
Actually, if you think about it, they are realistically a lot cheaper. The last meaningful update was the iPod video, after that, it's purely aesthetic changes, aside from storage or maybe screens. And realistically, for everyone who doesn't use their iPod as a hard drive or video player (and really, who does) they are probably not going to use more than 30g of storage for a reasonable library of music, so if you are fine with not technically having the newest thing, you could get an iPod that is, for all intents and purposes, the current iPod, minus a little hard drive space, for 150 bucks.
I think Apple will combine the iPhone/iPod touch platform into a wireless controller for games purchased & played on the Apple TV.
That would be an awesome idea.
No more innovative ideas.... Steve is Fired !!! Apple needs him no more...
ya that's a pretty weak analogy uncle woz, maybe he just wants some attention
No i think it is fairly accurate in terms of the ipod (touch and iphone excluded.) The classic and nano will die out just like the radio and walkman because the next big thing is multimedia and gaming devices.
... or something the next woz hasn't even invented yet. "people will keep enjoying music" is the only prediction i am willing to make.
I don't know; I don't think iPods are equivalent to walkmans in their day.
iPods now have much more of a computer convergence than those kinds of players - they both use Hard Disks, so benefit from the same research being done in to SSDs. Walkmans and MiniDiscs used proprietary formats that isolated them in terms of R&D. iPods use proprietary software, but they support standard music files (MP3).
There is also the factor of the iTunes store. Most analysts see digital distribution as being the next big thing. That's certainly acceptable for music. It fits in to our whole 'convenience culture' quite nicely, whilst using existing infrastructure, and democratises the process more (especially with the steady fall of DRM for music). Digital distribution for music will clearly stick. DD is also uniquely suited for iPods, which have the most popular store around.
iPods are learning from the demise of these older technologies by opening themselves to advances in storage technology and providing a tailored store infrastructure that makes the whole product 'make sense'. Gaming devices haven't captured that, and no brands right now are strong enough to take on Apple and the iPod. Not Sony, not the Playstation brand, not Nintendo, not Microsoft, certainly not Creative. Nobody. Brands are everything.
Fact check: The zune was always better just no "popular."
*not
Fact check: You're an idiot.
Fact check: That your opinion not a fact.
who the heck even owns a zune, and what part of the article even mentioned the zune? stay on the subject at hand..that would be great ummkay
"Sure, things could change dramatically -- competitors like the Zune are getting way better"
Get some glasses.
i guess people can't read into sarcasm well...what the heck is a zune anyways? psshhhhhh
fat check: YOUR MOM
Dammit sinai... I really shouldn't be ranking you up, but I can't resist!
Where did you get your facts? The zune has never been "better" than the iPod.
Maybe if you're comparing the current zune to the first gen ipod than I could agree,
but other than that I'm calling shenanigans on your "facts".
Um.. Better games, built in fm radio, and wifi for music sharing. Plus free updates for even the original zune.
Chris, You are a tard. Every aspect of the Zune is better then the iPod Classic. Period. Even the wheel that use to be good is starting to have problems on the current gen of iPods. I've talked to several people who have the classic including myself and they all from time to time get a few second lag/hang on the fucking wheel. Scroll and scroll like a madman until it finally starts working and then overshoot the shit out of where you want to go.
As for hardware. The Zune is superior in every category. Screen size, GUI that doesn't look like it was designed in '02....because it was. A GUI that isn't sluggish, and takes a good 3+ seconds to display coverart....verified that this occures on multiple systems. WIFI, Radio etc. The only things that the Zune lacks is a decent rating system, and software comparable to iTunes. I have yet to find a system as powerful as smart playlists that are found in iTunes. Zune's software has a form of smart playlists, but NOT remotely as flexible and powerful. But other then that. The iPod has gotten stagnant...as has Apple. And I would bring up the Touch as a competitor to the Zune if it wasn't for the fact that the tards at Apple used flash to boat anchor the damn system to....what are we up to now? 32...freaking GB? Pathetic for a system that is intended to be a PMP. All they had to do was add about 1GB of flash into the system for cache and drop a HD in there. But NOOO. God forbid that the system is more then .8 of an inch thick.
=(
Why did it say 0 comments when in reality there were a lot? Engadget...are you a PC?
The link text has the correct number of posts. Are you running safari? :P
are you a comecrialwhorefanboy?
Is this battletoads?
Walkmans never advanced? Tell that to me in 8th grade when i upgraded to a Sony with auto reverse, dolby B and MEGA BASS!
Also Walkmans are still around ;) http://www.sonyericsson.com/walkman/
How old are you? =)
Ah, auto-reverse. Those were the days.
33, old enough to remember that if you really liked a girl you made her a mix tape on high-bias!
Hell yeah! I had the same thing (maybe not the same model, but the same features) in middle school as well... thing had a full LCD read out for the settings and radio functions, and a large metal clamp lock that made the thing waterproof along with the full rubber trim.
That SOB was hardcore, and I had figured out the timing on all my favorite cassettes so I knew when to hit the auto-reverse switch and listen to the appropriate tracks on the other side.
That thing kept me from getting a CD player for four years or so, before I upgraded to the equivalent Walkman CD player, with the metal clamp and yellow finish.
My PSP handles all my music now (I don't even play games on the thing) but for a good decade all of my portable music was delivered via Walkman. I'm not a Sony fanboy (I play on my PC and NES more than my PSP) but they were the best out there for a long time.
You guys had LCDs back then? ;-P
But anyway, I also carried a Walkman tape player around in middle school, with copies of my dad's ol' vinyls (Dark Side of the Moon got a lot of play, so much I had to re-record it), then I upgraded to a Panasonic MP3-CD player. That thing was awesome!
Woz is right - even though I think he's a douche-bag.
It's inevitable. Something better will come out, or a new standard in portable music will be developped, or something else will change that influences the portable music industry.
Oh yeah, so iPods will slowly perish just because they're not really changing that much over time? So what will people carry on with their music? Futuristic music players implanted into skull?
Or just he meant that they will move on to iRiver and Zunes? Ain't gonna happen either.
But that's interresting thought - how iPods will change in next 10 years? how will they evolve?
I think he means platforms like the iPhone, Android Phones and WinMo/zunephones will take over.
And I agree with him; if I had an iPhone or similar I wouldn't need an extra PMP.
I just hum all my songs
Yeah, well, he's hideous.
He looks kinda like my old chemistry teacher.
Is it possible that it will die over time? Yes, of course.
But i dont see how it will as the ipod is a bit different, it does not rely on physical media, which was what the walkman's and cd's had, and as the ipod is right now, it has gone through multiple generations using different type of storage, first it started with thin laptop hard drives, than it went into smaller flash memory to compact the design (at least on the nano and probably on current generation), and they might be currently, or working on, SSD's.
The ipod is a lot more flexible than walkman's and cd players, and people will always want a standalone music device, something that doesnt do anything else, but plays music primarily.
Maybe in before shitstorm
Grull27 says "stfu and stop trying to get attention."
Quick tip: So long as you arn't buying Apple RAM
woz is correct, the ipod will die out because other products such as the iphone and umpcs with complete computer functions and all-day batteries will encompass the functions of the ipod.
the person who posted this clearly can't think properly. Who is smarter, the guy who is writing this post, or iWoz? Who would you bet your money on? HAHHAHA the guy who posted this, YOU ARE A JOKE. A COMPLETE JOKE.
If the Zune had the same level of market share as the IPod I doubt Mircosoft would include half features it has on it's player. Apple is becomming more and more arrogant no doubt, but Microsoft is no angel via the Zune.
That is a very odd comment. Microsoft is accused over and over again for adding too many features (anti-MS people have made Microsoft and bloat synonymous). Then you make a non-provable statement which not only contradicts with that belief but also can happen (doubt means that it is possible) and use that to back up a slam against the Zune, just does not make any sense. Oh, looking over your history you are an Apple fan. Now it makes perfect sense.
The doublethink is this:
Apple + features = features
Microsoft + features = bloat
Quick tip: If someone else can do twice as much in half the RAM, it's bloat.
Quick tip: RAM is dirt cheap
I dunno, the ipod is a leader in mobile PMP's, but now those are merging with cell-phones, and becoming a generic computing platform. As time goes on the competitors will catch on and stop all trying to release their own incompatible stores and music management programs. I have a feeling the free nature of android will go a long way towards bringing a whole suite of phone management tools to the PC that goes beyond just music and address book syncing. Since android is open, someone will come along and bring an open phone management suite too with plugins to suit all your needs. I use itunes as my music player because i like it the most over everything else, but someone could probably come along and make something better if they wanted, or make an android phone suite that worked alongside iTunes and allowed it to sync with the phone.
No matter what platform takes over, we are going to eventually have a standard music/contacts/more syncing platform that works with all phones/PMPs, and that will probably take over.
For the most part i really think the only reason ipods are still #1 is that they have a very good chain for getting your music and syncing it (itunes) and because people are most familiar with iTunes. Something else HAS to come along eventually that's better (maybe windows will FINALLY get windows media player right?) that will be standardized and work with everything that's NOT an iPod and when enough people see it, they're going to realize they can finally consider other players. I don't have a big need for an MP3 player myself, but a big reason i got my iPhone was that it worked with my favorite music program (iTunes). If someone makes something that conforms to some standard that other phones/devices conform to, i have no problem jumping ship. Actually, when android is in full swing, i'm going to jump ship anyway, and deal with the iTunes syncing somehow.
-Taylor
Open is great and all but its money that backs real development. I mean look at linux, hardly anyone uses it and most popular programs are incompatible (even thought they have open programs with similar functions.) I'm all for android but i don't think it will go far from the publics point of view.
Hahahahaha!.........engadget's a fanboi
The MP3 player as a whole will die out, the Ipod (as a recognized brand) will not.
Just like the walkman died out, but the brand 'walkman' still remains.
Even the brand is basically dead.
Know anyone that has bought a walkman product since the days of MiniDisc?
-Taylor
Yes. I have had 2 Sony Ericsson 'Walkman' mobile phones.
One of my friends had one of those Mini-disc players.
And I do believe the Walkman was an MP3 player at one point.
Sony still names their mp3 and video players 'walkman'
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Sony-NWZA818-Video-Walkman-Battery/dp/B000VD2130
You guys arent getting it. He's saying that ALL standalone MP3 players will die not too long from now. It's not about iPod vs Zune or anything like that.
All-in-one convergence gadgets are gonna take over that market. Apple knows it. Why you think they have iPhone??
Uncle Woz: "I HATE my yellow teeth!!"
Hmm, hard to say - by "iPod", does he mean the iPod Classic only? That is, a harddrive-based device with a clickwheel? He might be right.
But as we've seen over the past seven years, an "iPod" is whatever Apple makes it. Sometimes flash, sometimes HDD. Sometimes touchscreen, sometimes clickwheel. First music, then photos, then video, then internet. So, I'm sure Apple will adapt to whatever trends and technologies emerge in the future.
meh...I disagree!
The disagreement rains from apple heaven/.
I agree.As we consumers are purchasing a walkman phone,and we no longer need IPod to serve as out music player. Even an iPhone has the full functionally of an original IPod,then we can ask outselves why we need to have another IPod?!
"Walkmans and radios were standalone products that didn't really change over time, while the iPod is clearly evolving into a compelling standalone computing platform "
Yeah...that's pretty much what I was thinking after I read this story on Gizmodo. Kind like DVD versus VHS. We don't watch VHS tapes to much any more. Why ? Because something replaced them....it's not like people got bored with movies and just stopped watching them. The media just changed to something clearly superior.
Why did transistor radios give way to the Walkman ? CHOICE! You could now choose which music you wanted to listen to at a given time instead of simply listening to what was on. Why did the walkman give way to the Discman ? QUALITY! Better sound quality, dynamic instead of sequential queing, better shock resistance (depending on your model of course), better battery life, (arguably) more convenient media. Why did the discman give way to the DAP ? CAPACITY! Hours and Hours of music in your pocket...your whole library. Plus better battery life, easier organization, and with itunes, easier acquisition of new music.
Notice how all those successive changes reinforce the older ones ? Making each shift a pretty big one.
I kind of tend to agree with Woz that the staggering dominance of the iPod as the biggest of all the fish may end in the next few years (other players probably will start cutting into their business sooner or later, though iTunes virtually gauranties Apple will remain the overall dominant player in the game), but I have to wonder what will finally displace the DAP as we know it today ?
My only guess at this point would be something that involved ubiquitous telecom connectivity...tethering you to your music collection as well as on-line (for a little Pandora-esque exposure to new content) and satellite feeds (for live content). Either that for somthing that actively CREATES music to suit one on demand...not sure exactly how that might work though.
I mean if you think about it, ever since the walkman the goal has kind of been listen to the music you like whereever you are. A 40GB+ DAP pretty much does that NOW for most people...
I predict that one day we will trace the IP of engadget's updates to 1 Infinite loop, Cupertino.
zoop, that has nothing to do with "FIRST". please stay on topic.
I have to agree with Nilay. The iPod is by no means a single function piece of equipment like the walkman. Where that device remained the same for the span of it's lifetime, the iPod is not the same product released years ago. It has evolved into a video player, an alternative to other portable videogame systems and even a web browser. While market saturation may always be a threat, I doubt that Apple will run out of new ways to reinvent the iPod line (GPS, external hardware, camera integration, etc.)>
IndiaTech says the iDiots who say first will "die out after a while" like radios and Walkmans...
*Wishes upon a falling star*
My bold prediction: nobody will remember what an ipod is by the end of the year
By the end of THIS year? You mean all the millions and millions of iPod in use currently? Or the millions of iPod bought just this year?
What? You mean a product will become popular enough that the market becomes saturated and sales slow down? Something akin to the laws of diminishing returns? No offense to Woz, but the only reason this is a "story" is because he mentioned it. This statement can be applied to any product.
This "prediction" is akin to saying "Earth will die off sometime in the future". It's inevitable.
First of all, you should know better than to trust write ups from old farts on technology. What an idiot. He hasn't a clue what he's talking about. Old people and technology don't mix and this guy is 3 days older than God. Ignored.
I guess you're more in the loop than Woz?
Everyone who wants an iPod, has an iPod, which is why Apple is branching out. First they made the iPhone, now they're heavily advertising the iPod touch not as a music player but as a game platform.
I agree. I felt like the first sentences of the second paragraph was a complete plug for iPod. All he needed to do was insert www.apple.com/ipod and that would be it.
iPods have not changed much and now Apple has made them into second-rate products. It seems like Apple definitely likes subscription services, just not the way everyone is thinking. Think about it. Apple can make more money on a 1 song for $.99 rate and make money on the AT&T $75+/month contract with the iPhone. I feel the editor is one of these people so he has to justify it someway with all his iTunes DRMed songs on his iPhone 3G.
Apple. Think Different. They are definitely thinking of different ways to get into your pocket.
When did the radio die out, exactly?
In the free market, the only thing that will cause the iPod to die is a better product or new technology/innovation.
That's why Job's insists we must buy a new ipod EVERY SINGLE YEAR.
iPods will die out? Thank you, Captain Obvious.
Yet another meaningless Apple news piece deemed worthy of mentioning by Engadget.
He's right, as technology advances MP3 players will diminish in usefulness. Even now a plain old mp3 player is cheaper than the CD it is replacing. However, that is why Apple will continue to advance the line. It will keep getting new duties to make it increasingly irresitable, it's only a short step away from being a full fledged PDA.