CE-Oh no he didn't! Part LIX: Elevation's McNamee predicts death to iPhone on June 29
By Tim Stevens 
posted Mar 6th 2009 11:03AM
posted Mar 6th 2009 11:03AM
Roger McNamee, founding partner of the Palm-rescuing investment firm Elevation Partners, has had some interesting things to say about what to expect from the Pre. Now, though, he's really out done himself with what he has to say about the iPhone. In an interview with Bloomberg, McNamee (aka "Chubby Wombat Moonalice" when playing bass) predicted that the Pre will bring the downfall of Apple's wunder-handset, saying:June 29, 2009, is the two-year anniversary of the first shipment of the iPhone. Not one of those people will still be using an iPhone a month later. Think about it -- if you bought the first iPhone, you bought it because you wanted the coolest product on the market. Your two-year contract has just expired. Look around. Tell me what they're going to buy.We don't know the future, but we can sure tell you what we're not buying right now. And besides, we don't know too many early adopter types that could resist the siren call of 3G halfway through their existing iPhone contract, thereby re-upping their contract for another few millenia. That should be plenty enough time for Apple to whip up something new... or at least for Roger to get a haircut.
[Via Daring Fireball]
I'd agree with him if getting a Pre did not involve Sprint.
As much as I personally love Sprint, there are too many people who equate Sprint with throwing up in your mouth.
that is hilarious !
Full Marks.
AHAHAHAH!!
This hippie has Delusions of Grandeur!
Apple could slap on the Logo onto a monochrome single band GPRS phone and people would eat it up like the slut drones that they have trained themselves to be!
AHAHAHAH!!!
His mistake is that he's thinking purely about the Phone, and not the "i". Do people quickly drop phone for other phones? Sure, all the time. But when you're phone is so blended in with your entertainment viewing, listening and purchasing, that jump becomes harder to make. The iPhone eliminates the need to carry an iPod (of course). I don't have an iPhone, but if I did, it's the iTunes integration that would prevent me from buying a Pre. I don't buy music from iTunes either (I prefer lala first and Amazon second) but the items I purchase are instantly ported to iTunes and onto my iPod. I could listen to music on my VZW enV but, guess what? it's a shitty way to listen to music, so there you go.
couldn't agree more (except for the sprint being good part, but that's just because my area sucks).
i understand why people left networks to go to atnt... because it's decent.
nobody in their right mind is going to leave their network for sprint.
TINY TIM LIVES!
The death of Macintosh more like, If the recent updates and price rises are anything to go by and they continue the practice.
"This hippie has Delusions of Grandeur!
Apple could slap on the Logo onto a monochrome single band GPRS phone and people would eat it up like the slut drones that they have trained themselves to be!
AHAHAHAH!!!"
So let me see if I can understand the legions of "iGoons" on this topic:
Roger McNamee essentially says the same type of stuff Steve Jobs, Apple spokespeople, Apple-biased bloggers, and Apple fanboys say on A DAILY BASIS about any device or service that isnt made by Apple...
And you guys are loosing your shit, and heaping scorn onto him?
What? He has no right to think his product is better than Apple's
HOW DARE HE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
And some of you wonder why so many are cheering for Palm? The successes of the Pre will do more to shut down the Apple fan-machine than anything could. The obnoxious self-reightious faux outrage on display by Apple fans is just more reason to buy one.
@Look_Around_you It seems the only one suffering from heart stopping nerd rage is you my friend. Also keep in mind that we all know the iphone 3 will hit right about the same time as the pre, which im sure is exactly apples plan. Also, sprint hahahahahahahahhahahah, thats funny.
@ look-a-round,
I totally agree with you. So many people elevate apple and steve jobs to the status of gods and they spit on everything else like if it were manure. I'm glad the long haired hippie said what he said. I mean if you think about it, who wants to have a phone that supposively "can do everything" yet really can't? who wants to be tied to a network whose quality isn't that well? who wants to pay almost 100 bucks a month for a cell phone bill for 2 more years? maybe a revamp of the phone with mms and whatever else its mssing but also a new carrier, like verizon would thus make it the poo.
Believe it or not, iGoons, the iphone is not the creme de la creme, it does have its downfalls. I have the blackberry storm and love it and I use to have an ipod touch and i loved that too but i'm not over maniacal and proclaiming, blackberry is god and those who think other wise are lame.
I do however proclaim superiority simply because I am the man.
"The iPhone eliminates the need to carry an iPod (of course)."
Not true at all. I have an iPhone and I always use my iPod. The touch screen is just soooo bad for navigation and sound. But movies is a completely other thing (especially compared with my Nano).
Well, if they kept tethering with the Sprint/Pre, they might have had some chance to out do the iPhone. On top of that, they would need one hell of an app store to even start competing. People who have already spent lots of money on the app store for apps useful to them won't drop their iPhone for a Pre. It would already be customized to their lifestyle (where to go for news, entertainment, utilities like converters, calculators, dictionaries, wiki, etc), and would involve starting all over again and taking a risk that they might be able to do the same on a Pre.
Around that time there will probably be a new iPhone too, so if those people want the "latest and greatest", they'll probably just get the iPhone. It's so much more than a phone - it's the App Store, jailbreaking, user community, etc that really makes the iPhone.
@serge
It's funny how no one will ever win this argument yet we always have it... It's called subjective.... matter of opinion, etc.
I would argue the iPhone is the creme de la creme. Also, for anyone using a Mac and certainly for anyone using mobile me it's beyond even that. For the first time in my life my phone syncs and works great with my choice of computing platform.
You throw the diversity in the app store in that mix and it starts to hit a tipping point.
Napster thought they were gonna make a comeback too.
Every single mobile phone manufacturer talked mad shit about apple making a phone... now they are all scrambling to mimic it's success and it's essence.
once again, Apple took a concept that was already "there" and did it RIGHT.
I don't even give a shit about mms because all the stuff my phone finally does right and smooth far outweighs that...
you still clinging to that Palm IV?
you can hate them because they have become the favorite, that's fine, I understand the king of the hill mentality, but damn if you can deny that the entire phone industry is benefitting from what Apple has done.
by the way, I bought a Storm for my wife. It's a fucking joke. I feel like I'm using a damn garlic press when I push that janky ass screen.
Cheers,
holto
@ScOObyDoo
That may be true, however, there are many people who dislike Sprint for the sake of disliking them. There are people who claim they hate Sprint having never used Sprint. A am sure a lot of them fall into the "misery loves company" crowd.
To the Palm critics who say the Pre will be a failure, mainly due to Apples "app store." Let's look at this, Apple has been pushing the iphone as a media/entertainment device, that is why there is so much focus on the app store. You never see commercials that demonstrate business/phone/email/messaging functions (I never see iphone owners talking on their phones). Apple knows they have many people twice fooled, that is the reason there is not that much of a difference between the 1st gen iphone and the 2nd. The "rumored" bump in processor speed for the next iphone only emphasizes what Apple is doing. Apple wants little change as possible so they can continue to market the iphone as a gaming device, the iphone is now even being compared to portable gaming systems.
I want to reiterate what others have said, the iphone is NOT a smartphone, this is one of the reasons Apple is not marketing it as such!
Honestly I don't see the problem with Sprint. I suppose it's a matter of where you live because where I'm at Sprint has a better signal and it's faster. I've very very rarely had to deal with their customer service and I'm paying less than other people I know that have ATnT or VZW so for me Sprint isn't a problem at all, they just need some more better phones. Can't wait for the Pre to hit.
Actually, I equate sprint with someone else throwing up in my mouth. Yuck!
"Your two-year contract has just expired. Look around. Tell me what they're going to buy."
Uh, they're going to buy the iPhone 3.0, idiot.
And probably get a hair cut.
Man !!! I don't think so. Once bitten twice shy. I know that people who got shafted with the iPhone debacle will not be buying again.
APPLE = EMPEROR'S NEW CLOTHES.
People everywhere have had Apple's shoddy release and appauling quality rammed up their jacksy.
Never again will I buy Apple.
Roger is also ignoring the embarassingly large ecosystem that Apple has in place.
iTunes
which has millions of users the world over, has sold billions of songs, millions of television shows, movies, and provides access to Podcasts, Audio Books, etc, etc.
The App Store.
which includes games as well as regular apps. Heck, even the Kindle in on the App Store now! If you like e-books, you now have a variety of e-book like marketplaces.
Look at this cool breakdown.
App Store Breakdown (currently 20150 apps)
1560 Book Apps
480 Business Apps
1480 Education Apps
2680 Entertainment Apps
420 Finance Apps
3790 Game Apps
460 Healthcare & Fitness Apps
1040 Lifestyle Apps
220 Medical Apps
640 Music Apps
540 Navigation Apps
780 News Apps
420 Photography Apps
840 Productivity Apps
920 Reference Apps
320 Social Networking Apps
680 Sports Apps
900 Travel Apps
1880 Utility Apps
100 Weather Apps
FYI for Apple Hating Trolls: There are about 37 Fart Apps in various categories and 22 Flashlight apps in various categories.
+1 P.A.C Man. Should've read lower before I posted.
Plus, they have no two-year contract, since there wasn't one with the original iPhone.
"App Store Breakdown (currently 20150 apps)
1560 Book Apps
480 Business Apps
1480 Education Apps
2680 Entertainment Apps
420 Finance Apps
3790 Game Apps
460 Healthcare & Fitness Apps
1040 Lifestyle Apps
220 Medical Apps
640 Music Apps
540 Navigation Apps
780 News Apps
420 Photography Apps
840 Productivity Apps
920 Reference Apps
320 Social Networking Apps
680 Sports Apps
900 Travel Apps
1880 Utility Apps
100 Weather Apps
"
Windows has more apps than OSX, does that mean Apple should stop promoting it's OS.
And I seem to recall when the iPhone HAD NO APPS, that it didnt stop people like you from praising it. But now the Pre is worthless because it doesn't have thousands of apps that are mostly clones of other iPhone apps.
@Look_Around_You: Windows has more apps than OSX, does that mean Apple should stop promoting it's OS.
But if you consider how fast Apple managed to get attention of developers, that would paint pale picture for rest of the mobile OSs.
There should be something Apple mixes into their SDK.... :)
Just because the contract ends doesn't mean the handset stops working. I'm not planning to buy anything else. I like the original iPhone, and it's cheaper to operate than the 3G iPhone and quite likely the Pre.
Or, you know, keep using the one we bought because it works just fine. This guy is a putz.
"But if you consider how fast Apple managed to get attention of developers, that would paint pale picture for rest of the mobile OSs."
Question still stands. I'm using Apple fan logic in asking, and like clockwork, they cant offer a straight answer.
Umm... You didn't even ask a question.
@Samurai: No neither the iPhone nor the iPhone 3G are (will be) cheaper to operate than the Pre. Have you looked at Sprint's plans? For $59.99 you get 500 minutes, unlimited data, unlimited texting, unlimited nights and weekends (starting at 7pm), and unlimited mobile-to-mobile. And don't give me the "service is bad" myth, because you obviously don't have Sprint.
I don't care how awesome the iPhone is. I am not going to pay over a $100 per month to get unlimited text and data.
P.S. I currently pay $30 for same the plan mentioned above, unfortunately this lower rate was discontinued but I'm grandfathered in.
@PreFTW...
Call me when Sprint has service in Montana. You have no idea where I live, so how can you say Sprint has better service? They have *no* service where I live.
Didn't I see this dude on this weeks ep of Lost?
@LookAroundYou,
PacMan is not saying iPhone is so great with so many apps that people won't try Palm. He's just saying signs shows that it's very unlikely people are just gonna dump their iPhone at the end of the contract.
Your example of Windows OS having more apps. No matter how great Mac OS will be, Windows will never die, would it? No one ever said Palm should stop promoting.
C'mon if you're gonna bet your life come June 29, seriously, are you gonna bet on the iTunes Store with zero activities from the phone users; with millions of Pre purchases and millions of iPhones showing up at Goodwill?
@kccboy2004; Apple is your God, just admit it already. You talk about them in more threads than anyone.
That's not Roger McNamee, that's Horace Goodspeed!
That was a great episode last night!
Well done! That was my first thought too.
Interestingly, although the replies are appearing below the comment under mine, I'm getting the emails saying that someone replied to my comment!
Um...I'll buy the 3rd generation iPhone?
Don't know why it replied to myself...that was directed towards Jon
... because.. the comment system is completely borked? only on engadget...
I'm that person. I have a 1st gen iPhone and my 2 years is up at the end of June. I will be shopping around and I will pick up a Palm and play with it. Will buy into it? I'm not sure yet.
You're gonna play with your palm? I hope you mean the phone....
Hey, at least you understand that it will only be a single person!
Tha Palm joke just gets funnier and funnier...
Since the guy is one of the first people to use a Pre and meets a lot with Palm, I have a feeling that he knows something that we don't know, he is informed of a hit that will slow or "kill" iPhone's sales soon, and although I don't think that will be the case -iPhone will not die, I will want to see how things turn out to be.
@Saad Rabia, The only reason he's saying that it's because he invested $400 million in Palm, i mean if you had $400 mil in that company wouldn't you say the same thing? I would. What really is gonna drive sales is how Palm handles issues this time, all devices are buggy at start but only a few companies address them quickly and if history tells you something Palm is not one of them, but who knows they claim to be a new company.
Of course everyone else will do the same! That's what people do during a financial apocalypse: throw away perfectly good, 2-year old $400 dollar computers for a brand new one!
@Craig: The original iPhone was never "perfectly good" and it's not a computer.
Craig, let me add that the main reason I'll be doing this at the time of the 2 year mark is that my LCD is dying. I love my phone and really dont feel like i have to run out and get a new one.... it's jus tthat my old one id dying.
Why is no one else in my shoes? I'm currently with AT&T and Sprint and carry around a 3G iPhone as well as a Treo 755p. You have no idea how nice it is to have a GSM and CDMA phone when you travel a lot (especially to other countries). Obviously I'll trade the Treo for a Pre and the 3G for a whatever the hell they'll call the new one when it's released in tandem with the Pre. All of you poor bastards bickering between which is "best" can suck on my has-both-of-them dick while I reap the benefits of owning the two best phones on the market.
Do you feel that? That's jealousy.
Can you believe a guy who looks so much like Oscar Bluth?
never!
If he prefaced his every statement with "I am Oscar .com" I'd absolutely believe him.
Holy crap you're right! That's awesome!
He looks more like the scientist at area 51 in independence day.
I just wrote an editorial on his band who are coming to my town this month...Wish this would have come out sooner, would be fun to add this tidbit in there.
He is not far off. Look very closely though, Dell is the Leader here.
Apple directly copied the look of the Axim 50v. Pure plagiarism.
low ranking me does not get over the fact. Apple is a "me too" company that simply copies.
Sorry I can't here you underneath all that burying.
The Pre is a nice handset but Palm will ultimately fail again. Their focus isn't global.
Um, actually it is:
http://www.precentral.net/palm-pre-world-tour
http://www.engadget.com/2009/01/09/palm-ceo-says-europe-gets-pre-in-the-first-half-too/
It's not global *YET*. Apple wasn't global with the iPhone when it launched. They have a GSM version in the works. Unless you mean something other than "sold around the world" when you say "global."
The current WinMo Palms are offered globally too but don't sell in any real volume. There's no hype, nothing but bad advertising, zero effort. The focus is totally on North America. Is it a lack of resources? A lack of ambition? A lack of vision? I don't know but Palm totally fails outside of North America.
This guy is a perfect example of Palm's attitude. He only ever pops up on US TV and he talks as there isn't a world outside of North America.
What an idiot. If they liked the iPhone experience and want more functionality, people will get an iPhone that meets their needs, unless they hate the iPhone of course.
"What an idiot. If they liked the iPhone experience and want more functionality, people will get an iPhone that meets their needs, unless they hate the iPhone of course."
I was going to respond, but I cant make any sense of your comment.
@Look_Around_You Man you are a pathetic person aren't you. IS your nerd rage fueled by jealousy or you just bored with nothing to do waiting on the phone with MS support? Or maybe you work for MS, who knows. Either way every comment you make I feel decreases the intelligence quotient of the internet by at least 1 point.
"Man you are a pathetic person aren't you. IS your nerd rage fueled by jealousy or you just bored with nothing to do waiting on the phone with MS support? Or maybe you work for MS, who knows. Either way every comment you make I feel decreases the intelligence quotient of the internet by at least 1 point."
Uh, yeah sure, whatever floats your boat.
The reality is that in the tech world, the most narrow-minded, unsophisticated, posers always seem to be the people with the Apple-branded gear whenever someone dares say that their product is better.
It's not even apt to call them geeks, since they only tech they seem to really care about is the stuff from only one company. Put that logo on cheese and they will say it was the best cheese ever.
And as usual when a product that they fear people might like comes to the spotlight, they go on the attack.
You think people dont notice how unhinged some of you are over this story. Personal attacks on this guy aside, you've demonstrated nothing that makes the Apple phone more appealing to anyone other than to people that would like to own one so they can too be obnoxious jackasses that heap scorn on anything without an Apple logo.
@ Looking Around...
speaking of personal attacks and obnoxious jackasses.
Try looking in a mirror if the experience doesn't kill you.
You sanctimonious hypocrite...
@Look_Around_You
You should work for Bob Vila, I mean where else could a tool as big as yourself find work these days? we get the hint your hellbent on destroying the iPhone but I think this really boils down to you don't like innovation, your a "bubble boy".
@Look_Around_You If im not a geek i dont know what is. I have 5 windows pcs in my house, 2 MBP's 1 24" imac, ps3, wii, etc etc etc. I manage 100 windows clients and 3 servers every day and i do it on my mac. YOU ARE THE ONE WHO IS NARROW MINDED. You cant bring yourself to accept that for everyday power computing windows is just not the best. If you wanna play some games then yes you win, but we are talking about an OS that cant even open .doc files by default, and certainly not pdf's, and up till Vista Ultimate didnt even come bundled with codecs to watch a fucking dvd. I dont know what to tell you man, but every comment you make is narrow minded drivel, and either your dad beat you daily with a mac, or you just have never used one ever.
What's up with the King Louis XIV look?
Do a Google Image Search on King Louis XIV and TELL ME he doesn't look the same!!!
more like Dr. Brackish Okun: http://evert.meulie.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/dr-brackish-okun-150x150.jpg
touche
That's right, once my iPhone 3G contract expires I'm going to buy the next gen iPhone. The iPhone is the best smartphone out there, not even the Pre can touch it along with the mobile clones that is Windows.
1) the iPhone's not a smartphone
2) You haven't used a pre, OR the next iPhone, you can't yet say which is better
3) Windows Mobile's been around a hell of a lot longer than the iPhone. Who cloned who?
Got to love the idiots and their "iPhone is not a smartphone" garbage.
He's just being an ass because someone offended his Apple purchase.
It's not. It's a featurephone with an enhanced browser (a browser which crashes all the time). The email system is lacking, the productivity apps are lacking, no copy and paste, yada yada yada. It's not a smartphone. The first Palm or windows mobile phone was more of a smartphone than the iPhone.
@Phoenix 1. What? WHAT?
2. We do know it will run the iphone os software and that is all we need to know.
3. Windows mobile is a PIECE OF SHIT. Has always been a POS and according to all the recent news, the newest 6.5 is a rehashed POS, just like vista.
Waiting for your response on the "Soon to be out but probably not for a long time and when it does will be just another layer of paint on 6.5, Winmob 7" Tell us all about it buddy.
is it not a smartphone,
can i edit office documents without some obscure hacks? no
can i save documents on it to use them and watch them in the phone? no
tethering? no
its a damn good dumbphone/multimedia device, but a smartphone is not
LOL !!this guy will eat his words in the summer. Guaranteed iPhone will still outsell pre whenever it comes out. Palm sprint will have formula all wrong ,if sorry pro was 199$, u really think pre will be less. No zero to 1 million in 72 hours records will be broken by palm.
I know that "analysts" have to be contentious to get coverage but this is borderline silly ... not in fact it's just plain silly.
I'm no fan of the iPhone, I use windows and WM is fine on my HTC Universal, but even i can see that the iPhone is a good device, the UI is very satisfying, the phone works well, everyone I know who has one is satisfied. There may well be a few who want the latest and greatest but is the Pre so very very much better than the iPhone? I doubt it, and I strongly doubt that it's as much a game changer as the iPhone was when it came out. I also strongly doubt that it will be as professionally marketed as the iPhone so no Mr McNamee, you're just plain wrong.
This isn't an analyst. It's one of Palms biggest investors via his PE fund, Elevation Partners.
I kind of see where he's coming from but I don't think everyone who bought an iPhone will ditch it for a Pre.
lol these guys act so confident..
iphone is going no where. Apple has the content to make people want to stay..
i agree. the iphone is going nowhere at all. it is a dead end.
?By the way, is that Ozzie Osbourne?
No, that's a hippy capitalist. Oh, wait, it COULD be Ozzy.
As much as I dislike the iphone..... No one has a better PR team and has made a niche market something huge like Apple..... And also for all of the iphones little issues it is a sexy looking phone..... The pre is great in its own ways but we're as far off from an ipod killer as we are from an iphone killer.......
Apple stock just took a hit too, right after Gollum's comment.
I think the Pre will sell well, but will have no meaningful impact on iPhone sales.
Did you see PALM's stock drop yesterday? They dropped 4 percent. Today, they've already dropped 6 percent.
PALM's stock is down to 6.21 at this time, down from a high of 9.51 just a couple of weeks ago.
Are you really trying to say that Mcnamee's chatter was the reason for the stock drop? Have you picked up a newspaper in the last, oh say, 6 months?
Apple stock fell sharply on the news that the whole rest of the market was also falling at the same time.
Of course get another iphone. We all saw the pre and it looks wow but anyone saw the new iphone? No! So! Wait for it.
Yeah my contract expires in June. But I'm going to have to stick with holding onto my iPhone 1st gen because:
1) Economy sucks.
2) ATT > Sprint.
Once Pre comes to ATT though, then I get over #1.
I was a first gen iPhone guy...I loved it so much I bought the iPhone 3G.....sold it on eBay for crying out loud and ended up so much money......the hardware cost of both iPhones were virtually free......and yes....the only Palm I'll be playing with is my own......I'm freakin married...LOL
Crispin Glover from his Letterman fiasco.
This is guy is seriously delusional and out-of-touch. You can see that from his 1992 haircut.
Sure the Pre is a nice phone, but there is no way people will forget about the economic meltdown, trade in their iPhones and jump on to some new platform.
Yeah, think about it. iPhone, you pay $149.99/month for unlimited minutes, data and messaging. On Sprint, you pay $99.99/month and get the same + some more. Saving $50 over 2 years ($1,200) definitely won't entice anyone to switch. Nope. Not one bit. Especially during these hard economic times.
The Pre will do extremely well with non-iPhone-owning customers, but don't count on Apple fanboys from switching over, at least right off the bat.
He did get a haircut!
Photo here:
http://www.precentral.net/roger-mcnamee-we-love-you-death
Insane