CE-Oh no he didn't! Part LIX: Elevation's McNamee predicts death to iPhone on June 29
By Tim Stevens 
posted March 6th 2009 11:03AM
posted March 6th 2009 11:03AM
Roger McNamee, founding partner of the Palm-rescuing investment firm Elevation Partners, has had some interesting things to say about what to expect from the Pre. Now, though, he's really out done himself with what he has to say about the iPhone. In an interview with Bloomberg, McNamee (aka "Chubby Wombat Moonalice" when playing bass) predicted that the Pre will bring the downfall of Apple's wunder-handset, saying:June 29, 2009, is the two-year anniversary of the first shipment of the iPhone. Not one of those people will still be using an iPhone a month later. Think about it -- if you bought the first iPhone, you bought it because you wanted the coolest product on the market. Your two-year contract has just expired. Look around. Tell me what they're going to buy.We don't know the future, but we can sure tell you what we're not buying right now. And besides, we don't know too many early adopter types that could resist the siren call of 3G halfway through their existing iPhone contract, thereby re-upping their contract for another few millenia. That should be plenty enough time for Apple to whip up something new... or at least for Roger to get a haircut.
[Via Daring Fireball]
Remember, kids, don't listen to "Analysts" - they tend to be morons who couldn't get a proper job and probably make their predictions based on a Magic 8-Ball. Given the iPhone Customer Satisfaction rates, I think we can safely say that this guy has been doing more drugs than is strictly healthy for you, which probably also explains hair that long on someone of that age.
Can I sync a Pre with iTunes? No? I can't get my iTunes purchases on a Pre? I can't use my Apps? I can't use my videos or music?
Uhhh. . . Thanks but no thanks, dude.
As long as the Pre has sync support (contacts, cal, email, media) on the Mac _at least as seamless_ as the iPhone, I would consider. Otherwise, I can't imagine any diehard Mac-using iPhone owners would switch. I switched to my iPhone 2 yrs ago for basically the same reason, among others. Palm's Mac support has always been marginal at best. If they want to win over iPhone users, take a stand and offer GOOD Mac support. I'm surely not going to switch to Windows so I can have decent sync with a Pre. And that holds true for every iPhoners I know. Oh, and Sprint absolutely sucks in my area so that's another minus.
I predict a pony tail sometime soon.
i can haz.. A HAIRCUT! someone tell willy nelson to stop trying to look important and spark up another doobie
I don't think he's necessarily saying that the iPhone users are going to want to switch necessarily to the Pre anyway, though I understand how a flamewar is better for traffic. He's just really saying that when those original iPhone users' contracts are up, they're going to want something new, and one of those possibilities will be the Pre.
And as for the hair, he donated it to charity after he got it cut, give the guy a break.
@Look_Around_You
So because one loves the iPhone it means it hates the Pre?
Totally untrue. I love my iPhone and would never change it for anything because I haven't found anything else that fits my needs or satisfies me as much. That doesn't mean I don't like other phones. I like the BB Storm and I think the Pre is a good choice if you trust Palm.
Everybody has to stop trolling and being such a fanboy. I love Apple, so what? Deal with it, its my life, not yours! I've got the money to get their products and I like them, you can go and buy whatever you like without hatting what I buy because I can buy it or want to buy it.
"Everybody has to stop trolling and being such a fanboy. I love Apple, so what? Deal with it, its my life, not yours! I've got the money to get their products and I like them, you can go and buy whatever you like without hatting what I buy because I can buy it or want to buy it."
I'm not telling you to buy or not to buy anything or trying to tell you that the iPhone is or is not trash.
That is something your fellow Apple users do here and elsewhere daily. They trash anything that is not from Apple. That isnt even debatable. If you point it out to them they get even more unglued.
The net would be a better place if they dropped the need to attack all non-Apple products.
"That is something your fellow Apple users do here and elsewhere daily. They trash anything that is not from Apple. That isnt even debatable. If you point it out to them they get even more unglued."
Really? I cant remember a flamewar here or on gizmodo that didn't start with an apple article and idiots like you saying "what an overpriced, inflexible, unusable, machine" When they report a story on a new dell XPS i never see people going to that story and saying "LULZ not as good as apple". Nope its always you morons and your "OMFG its crap" anecdotes on apple related articles. To quote Dennis Hopper "You got blinders on to the world son." I know i totally just quoted the movie Speed, but it had to be done.
"That is something your fellow Apple users do here and elsewhere daily. They trash anything that is not from Apple. That isnt even debatable. If you point it out to them they get even more unglued."
It may be the case sometimes, but Apple haters complement them and start fights as well when they criticize things they've never used, will never use, buy or even give a chance. I haven't seen Apple fans going to EVERY SINGLE post about a Dell product and saying "OMG OMG OMG, this sucks, sooo expensive Dell sucks, cheap plastics,w/e", have you?
-sigh- How come there seems to be few people in the middle ground when it comes to the iPhone? its either OMG U DISS APPLE U SUCK OLOLO or "Apple sucks and needs to die, kthxbai"
Theres a middle ground, its not as black and white as that, NO product is perfect and NO product can do everything, and being a deluded fanboy or a deluded fanboy-basher is simply retarded
I confess I have an iPhone, I use iTunes, I buy music from the iTunes music store, because when I started it was pretty much the only option around (Looks like I made the right choice given all the other services and what happened to them), and I was until last year a very fervent mac user (Who still would like to have a Mac to use as his primary computer, but thats beside the point)
Why do I use an iPhone? Its not the best, but it works for me, AT&T in my area has great coverage, I've never had a point where my iPhone has not had a signal where I wasnt almost completely sure a Sprint or Verizon user wouldnt have had one either...and those places are very few and far between
The iPhone, like all of these smartphones, is a compromise device, but its a very good -compromise- Yes I wish it had MMS, yes I wish the App Store was more open-source and open-development without the Apple App Nazi looking over everything....But then again, the Apps are also pretty OK, theres an App for everything and the App Nazi does do his job, you dont see reports of people with iPhones complaining that some app they downloaded from the app store was draining their batteries empty even when not in use (See the G1)
I predict Apple will eventually give us MMS in a future software update, probubly around the release of the next iPhone update
Is the Pre nice? Yes, I think it is a good device, the Storm..not so much...I wouldnt have a Pre because I do not like Sprint, and the Storm because I wasnt very impressed with what I heard about it...I like the G1 but think it has a way to go before it gets there
And also because they just wont do what my iPhone does, it replaced my iPod and my Smartphone, and it did so very well, it isnt perfect, but NOTHING is
My iphone has been a better phone than a couple dedicated phones I had, and can run with the best phones I had when it comes to being a phone, as a PDA its not quite as good as my old Axims, but also more convenient to use, and its good at being an ipod as well and video wise its pretty damn capable!
I have an iPhone and nothing has come close to enticing me to get a different phone. In fact, I upgraded to the 3G. With the Amazon Kindle app, the Slingbox app on the way and who knows what else on the horizon, I can't see myself going to another phone anytime soon.
What people fail to realize is that it's about more than just the phone.. the iPhone is part of the Apple ecosystem with iTunes and the iTunes store. It just works.
You do realize that those are just apps? There will be Kindle and Slingbox for webOS as well. Palm wrote the book on apps. Apple merely made them very easily accessible and simple to install.
Not having to use Itunes is great as well. Drag n drop baby. Amazon store if you need download tunes.
The Pre makes the iphone look dated. Not to mention its on a much better network in Sprint. AT&T? Really? It's a joke.
Are you kidding me? Sprint is a better network?
You must work for them.
I SPRINTed away from Sprint the minute the iPhone came out.
Activated at home using iTunes without having to talk to a soul or take-a-freaking-number at the gods damned Sprint store.
Wow that's amazing. You activated your iphone on itunes? Sprint just ships em to me overnight already activated.
AT&T is crap. You're an idiot if you think otherwise. It'll get better as it matures but it doesn't compare to Verizon or Sprint. The iphone succeeded despite AT&T and that's a credit to the iphone.
Not to mention AT&T is making a killing off you iphone guys with its insane plans. You pay extra for texting? Really?
I have had nothing but the best experience with AT&T.
It's almost like this whole cellular network thing might depend a bit on where you live . . .
funny how most of you here were Palm lovers when the Pre was announced, but now that he's derided your beloved iPhone, there's all this defensiveness and mass hysteria.
PALM = Creative Labs
Creative Labs = sux
so
Palm = sux.
I personally think the reason so many iPhone owners are quick to defend their purchase and/or attack other smartphones on the market is because Apple did such a fantastic job marketing it as the best phone out there. I admit, the iPhone is very slick, and I can see why many people would want to buy it. It just has so many bizarre limitations like MMS, copy-and-paste, and video recording I could never see myself buying one. I mean, I'm constantly sending links and quotes to people from websites and I couldn't even do that on the iPhone. I just think so many people bought the iPhone thinking it was the best phone out there, and they weren't really tech-savvy people to begin with so they bought it more for the touch screen and ipod more than anything. A phone like the Pre comes along that is miles above and beyond what the iPhone or any phone on the market can offer right now, yet iPhone owners insist on taking jabs at it for no reason.
I guess I just dont understand the loyalty that so many iPhone users have to Apple. I mean come on we're all at least a bit geeky coming onto Engadget so it doesnt make sense to be geeky and not at least oggle the tiniest bit over the newest hot gadget.
"Mail link to Page" button.
Next. . .
What are you going to do if these competitors not existed? Unless they makes investments like Palm and no real competitior on the market, what happens? Think about it, really... What happened during 2003-2007 period? WM was the market leader and no tough competitors for so long. What have they done for us, for consumers? Apple has the market at %40 rate in smartphones and it is acting windows mobile's role until 2007. What if no competitors to iphone even they don't make any significance change the following years? They've done nothing to iphone (2g), after one year period they released 3g... What if the 3rd generation iphone would nothing but some typical smartphone features but not anything more? Think that way and you'll figure out why one should not be a fanatic of apple or the market leader... We are not supporting football teams here!!
We are not supporting any football team.
We are just saying, unlikely. He's saying, definitely.
He didn't say, competition is good for market, and we went, no, we do fine with Apple alone.
That fat pussy!
John Rrubinstein stole Apple ideas and took it to Palm. Now Palm is trying to resurrect itself with Apple's swag to stay in the game. But it will be Palm to get buried. See, Apple has well Apple and 28 billion in the bank. The iphone has seamless integration along the Mac realm. The Pre will be bombarded with knockoffs when it drops soon. The slaughter will be horrendous. It is a hardware game for Palm not software.If it were software, Palm would have been in a different position a long time ago IMHO.
Anyway, the investors are worried so hey told ass wipe to do what was necessary to hype the Pre so they can get their monies worth.
LOL..that was pretty stupid.
what an idiot. and that is coming from a palm fan.
Wow, what a weirdo. I live in the Apple ecosystem. iPhone, Macbooks, AppleTV's and so on. It works for me. It's not everyone's flavor and I agree Apple has an arrogance about them but they do a better job of admitting and fixing mistakes in a timely fashion among other things. I left Microsoft behind years ago and I surely won't be trying on Palm any time soon. So I guess Mr. I didn't know I was a man will be slightly off on his prediction. He should get a haircut and clear some room for actual logical realistic THINKING. Everyone is entitled to their own. We can't all agree on everything and nor should we. Then we'd be very boring. :-)
I think that the Palm Pre will be a very good phone, and will bring some much needed competition to the market. Even though I'm a iPhone user, I want the Palm Pre to do well. I just think that he is wrong with assuming 1st Gen iPhone users will switch. Even if they wanted to switch in June, who said they can afford to at that point. Unless the Palm Pre will be at a damn good price point, with a great priced plan, it's going to be rough. Also, if people disliked the iPhone/AT&T so much, they would have changed phones/carriers when they had a chance to do it for free.
What he said is a good news bit, but Joe Six Pack won't know this guy or what he said, come June-ish. For that matter Joe Six Pack doesn't even know the meaning of a fanboy. So it will boil down to the Pre's price, Sprint's plan, and if Apple messes up the release of the 2nd Gen iPhone 3G.
Does this guy really think Apple isn't working on a new iPhone for this?
That was my thought when I read the article. He must think Palm is the only company out there working on products.
Die iPhone!!!! LMAO!!!!
His mistake is to assume that people who bought the iPhone did so because they wanted the "hottest device" on the market. That may be true of those who stood in line and bought it on day 1, but not for the 90% who got it much later - those people bought it because they thought it would work well, then were blown away by how well it really works, and they are not going to switch to Pre just for hype. Satisfaction ratings bordering on the ridiculous mean you'd have to pry the iPhone from most owners cold, dead hands.
Personally I will buy new Apple products on day 1 because of the history of the company - they make fantastic products and anything less would be a surprise. They are in the business of creating smash hits. I can't say I am as impressed with Palm. Palm always seemed OK to me but I don't have this absolute trust that any new product they produce will rock.
In addition, I am not convinced that AJAX is such a great platform to be based upon - as a developer I see many problems with that approach. Technology-wise, the Pre looks like it's much less well thought out than the iPhone which is surprising for a device that comes 2 years later. The Pre will be much more limited in what it can do and I don't just mean 3D graphics.
I sortof agree with him. When I first saw an iphone I was blown away.
The screen was GORGEOUS, the multitouch and probably most of all the snappiness of the UI.
But I didn't buy one. I wanted 3G, I wanted proper GPS, I wanted outlook sych, not enough memory to replace my 60Gb 5G ipod blah blah - there was just too much missing. It looked like a fine start, but after my lust subsided, I decided to wait.
Then the 3G model came out.. but by then I'd got an HTC Polaris... and I'd bought an ipod touch. Fortunately the first one got stolen, so I now have one with volume buttons (although now my pet hate is the fact my iHome clock radio won't charge it due to Apple farting about with the pinouts)
So - why did I never actually get around to buying an iphone.. I think it's the general way it's been pitched. It is lovely, but assumes you're starting from scratch with it and it will be the centre of your new world. My office calendar is outlook - sorry, that's just a fact that will not change. MS Mobile 6.1 is clunky and ugly - but you connect it to your laptop (wire, BT, Wifi - and it WILL WORK). I don't like MS Mobile - but it is functional. I can Copy and Paste. I can make a Wifi hotspot, I can plug it into any PC (and it won't instantly try to rehome/delete everything). I can get apps that random people have made - FFS I could flash it to 6.1 from the original Mobile version that came on it.
I guess the iPhone just appears very shallow. Pretty Pretty on the surface, with F-all to back it up when you want to actually get something done. I've no idea why people get so excited about the appstore - most of the stuff is crap - although I probably contribute to the problem by occasionally buying stuff (EA - I HATE you for that **** version of tetris.. oh and SimCity.. oh and..)
Anyhoo. Just to finish my burbling on a positive note, safari is LOVELY on my ipod. Fortunately my 'proper' phone will connect to 3G and the ipod hops on via the wifi - no need for an iphone at all.
Quite looking forward to the Palm - whole convergence thing is appealing to me. But then the 'locked down' ecosystem is just Apple all over again.
Maybe netbooks are the future - or rather the ever shrinking PC will hit the sweet spot before the increasingly powerful phone.
Went through similar problems trying to get a 'media player' for my TV - in the end I just realized I could build a proper PC for the same money (micro-ATX with TOS/HDMI/7.1/ATI HD all in a 1U case) - and it just works.
I think Roger doesn't understand the concept of "fashion", for phones or for personal grooming.
not one... lol
All this bitching back and forth about iPhone vs Pre isn't going to go anywhere. I think the reality is that, assuming the Pre becomes a success, the iPhone will not lose at all. It is WinMo who will suffer the most and go down in lame flames.
And so we are witnessing the emergence of the next OS battles, now shifted to the world of handsets. When Web OS and Symbian jumps in the fray the competition cauldron is going to get ubber hot. MS has proved time and again that they can't compete so they are the most likely to get screwed in this rat race. And having that jackass Steve Ballmer at the top doesn't help things any.
In no particular order:
Nokia: Symbian
Apple: iPhone OS X
Palm: Web OS
Google: Android
MS: WinMo 6.5? WinMo 7?
There are more OSs like that Open Moco thing, but who cares about them.
Bought an iPhone on 6/29/07…and plan on buying the next new model that comes out, hopefully 6/29/09
It is very apparent a lot of you fail to miss the point of many critics of the iphone. When people see comments like... "The iphone has a billion apps" or.. "B-b-b-but, the iphone has iTunes". Those comments justify what critics say, "the iphone is a media/entertainment device first." Sure the iphone has a fancy UI, what about the business/phone/email/messaging functions?... The iphone is seriously lacking in those areas, as well as other areas. The people who make the claims in favor of the iphone should realize the ipod is capable of running the very same apps and iTunes? As I have mentioned earlier, I never see iphone owners talking on their phones, the majority of the time the iphone is being used like an ipod. For the record, the Pre does have an app store (it's called App Catalogue), the Pre uses Amazon for the music store, as well as Sprint TV. There is NO need for iTunes, everything is wirelessly synced/downloaded/installed OTA (over the air).
Business/Phone/Messaging/email functions?
How exactly is the iPhone "severely" lacking?
And if you claim you need video or MMS for business, you'll be giving us all a strong indicator of your "business needs"
Interesting how Steve Jobs is supposed to return to work at the end of June. Coincidence? Is Jobs secretely offsite somewhere developing iphone NEXT?
I was psyched about getting a Palm Pre (I can't stand AT&T and prefer Sprint). However, this interview makes me think that this crack smoking hippie is going to be gullible enough to wait until June 29 (still falls under "first half of 2009") to spring the Pre into the market and think that all the iPhone users will just land at his feet.
Great going there... Let's isolate our current fan base by not letting them get their hands on the Pre just yet and have them wait about 6 months. Then all those iPhone lovers will drop everything to join the ranks of the Pre...
How bout a more realistic scenario. Palm isolates its current fan base, waits till June to release Pre, and then has no customers by the end of June since the iPhone users either buy a new iPhone 3.0 or the 2.0 while the previous Palm fan base got sick of waiting, said "Screw Palm" and either got an iPhone or went with another phone/carrier.
That's sounds more like it...
I was a dedicated Palm user having bought multiple devices from Palm over the years incuding three phones. My whole family tolerated their crappy desktop contact management system (did it every get any serious upgrades?) fr years because their handhelds got the job done.
But I was insulted when they announced that the new device would only be available on Sprint and I felt that Palm had screwed me and abondoned me and my ATT/Treo 750.
I even wrote an email to the president who wrote back and told me to "wait it will come to ATT" some day.
So with my Treo failing to support my growing business needs - I made the switch to the iphone and it has performed beyond my expectations. So Palm I will never again be a customer of yours.
One simple rule for the future....... Don't bite the hand that feeds you.
Palm definitely doesn't deserve the hype its been getting lately, and I'm sad to see EnGadget play such a big part in this. Look, from what I've seen, i love the Pre, and i look forward to getting the phone. But at this stage, it really isn't a killer, right now i look "forward" to getting the phone in hopes of when its released, it'll have more to it than what i have seen.
It seems great so far don't get me wrong, but it isn't enough... Maybe i misinterpreted all this hype, but from what i see, everyone is hyped on the phone pulling palm out of a bad situation, and showing us something great and competitive, but that doesn't mean its instantly great. We know there is time ahead and hope, or believe it will be much better, more surprises etc. And if this is all palm has to offer, then they lost my buy...
“Not one of those people will still be using an iPhone a month later.”
-------
Unless that was a misquote, that's one hell of a cocky thing to say. Then again, it did generate a whole lot of buzz on the interwebs. Mission accomplished?
Still, I would prefer to see/ hear what was said from the horse's mouth rather than some journalist's selective regurgitation.