Fuzzy math: Palm Pre to run about $470 full retail?

Sprint is kicking off an exciting little contest that'll ultimately award two lucky winners with their very own Pres, Touchstones, and one year of Simply Everything service -- pretty awesome stuff. Both Sprint and Palm have been famously tight-lipped about pricing for the Pre thus far, but using a few basic calculations derived from the game's legalese, an eagle-eyed tipster pointed out that it seems that we can probably get within a few bucks of the full retail price. Here's the deal: we know that Simply Everything runs $99 a month. After federal taxes, FCC surcharges, and some fudge factor for local taxes, you're looking at, say, $105 to $110 a month. We can say with some confidence now that the Touchstone itself will run $69.99 at retail -- and that leaves the Pre itself. Sprint's rules say that the prize package's approximate retail value is $1,800, so if you subtract $105 for the plan (since Sprint can't be factoring in local taxes here) and $70 for the Touchstone, that basically leaves you with a nice, round $469.99. That sounds like a big number at first, but first off, very few folks will be paying $470 for a Pre -- they'll either be upgrading or adding new lines at a significant subsidy -- and to put the number in perspective, AT&T charges $549.99 full retail for the BlackBerry Bold. We're basically just thinking out loud here, but $470 seems like it'd give Sprint plenty of wiggle room to blow this thing out on contract, doesn't it? Check out shots of Sprint's mind-blowing contest for the ages after the break.

[Thanks, Jonathan]

[Rocky @ May 13th 2009 6:15PM]

Seems reasonable to me. I paid more than that for my Touch Pro.

[Amrosorma @ May 13th 2009 6:57PM]

Damn, $470 unsubsidized is ridiculously cheap.

[insky @ May 13th 2009 8:33PM]

I payed $75 for mine subsidized.

but then again I'm Jewish and I have a hard time paying retail.

[Chad @ May 13th 2009 8:41PM]

That sounds resonable.

I would think they would have a $200 instant savings (with new contract) and a $100 mail-in rebate (sprint does that a lot) putting it just shy of the iphone at $169.99 which is a pretty solid price.

[ananimus3 @ May 13th 2009 11:59PM]

@Amrosorma: Yeah, that would be ridiculously cheap. I think a wiser estimate would've been $70 for Touchstone and $100/mo for the Simply Everything. That'd leave $1,800 - $70 - $1,200 = $530. And THAT sounds about right.

[IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII (BarCODE) @ May 14th 2009 12:22AM]

Just give it some time, wait for the early adopters to move on to the next big thing and in six months you'll be able to pick one of these phones up for much less than you could during the initial release period.

[Slick @ May 14th 2009 4:20PM]

@ Chris Ziegler

The answer to your equation is clearly 1.32 radians

[dcoaster @ May 13th 2009 6:16PM]

Hopefully Sprint and Palm can do this right... Don't screw it up, guys.

[Dec @ May 13th 2009 6:35PM]

Id pay that.

[Nathan @ May 13th 2009 6:18PM]

@Rocky

I paid more than that for my Treo 650 back in the day! :)

[Epsilon-Not @ May 13th 2009 6:22PM]

Hm- the Nextel BlackBerry Curve 8350i runs $479.99 off contract, $149.99 with mail-in rebate and contract. If they used a similar rate of subsidy for the Pre, then it would be what, $140? That'd be astounding, I think... Though, that doesn't factor in the "Early Adopter Charge", the 8350i has been out for awhile now.

[Epsilon-Not @ May 13th 2009 9:13PM]

That wasn't meant to be a reply, sorry.

[George @ May 13th 2009 6:17PM]

So, what are you saying you think it'll be...~$270?

[Tony @ May 13th 2009 6:22PM]

Sprint smartphones have $180-$320 of instant savings, most of them being $250 or so, and then a $100 MIR on top of that. Figure the $250 into the Pre, and you get $220 - $100 MIR making it $119.99.

Highly unlikely, but at least we can say we don't think it will be more than $200 after rebate.

[Ghen @ May 14th 2009 6:03PM]

Actually I'm thinking it'll be under $200 before rebate. Anything more would be suicide compared to the iphone/storm/g1 pricing.

[Templarian @ May 13th 2009 6:17PM]

Logic win.

Yea, still buying it the day it comes out, don't even care if I don't find out the price till I walk into best buy.

[Azlo @ May 13th 2009 6:47PM]

Diddo

[iphonerulez @ May 13th 2009 6:55PM]

I think Azlo meant "diddle". As in "diddle" when he gets his Pre.

[Kurian @ May 13th 2009 11:50PM]

Dido uses Pre as a dildo and he'll do ditto.

[Jonyah @ May 13th 2009 6:17PM]

Sweet, so a subsidized price at $250 is possible. That's the price point I'm hoping for.

[krische @ May 13th 2009 6:46PM]

I'd imagine it'll be less than that. 199.99 at the highest

[ananimus3 @ May 14th 2009 12:01AM]

Agreed. This seems enough info to reveal there's slim chance of this being over $200 after full rebates and a good chance it might even hit $150.

[sjs2626 @ May 13th 2009 6:18PM]

Compared to a lot of other phones off-contract prices, that isn't that bad!

[George @ May 13th 2009 6:18PM]

to clarify:
So, what are you saying? That you think it'll be...~$270?

[Me4u2 @ May 13th 2009 6:19PM]

"AT&T charges $549.99 full retail for the BlackBerry Bold. We're basically just thinking out loud here"

Stop bitching about the BlackBerry Bold. How much does AT&T charge for a full retail iphone???

[Chris Ziegler @ May 13th 2009 6:25PM]

What are you talking about? Seriously -- I wanted to give a roughly equivalent device for comparison's sake, and I wasn't interested in using the iPhone for a number of reasons. Not hating on the Bold's price. As we both know, no one actually pays $549.99, and we need to point that out to make the argument that the $470 figure doesn't mean much either.

[Phoenix @ May 13th 2009 6:33PM]

Seriously, WTF? are you people NEVER happy?

[cjgruenberg @ May 13th 2009 7:01PM]

How hard will it be to activate the pre on verizon... this topic is very relevant to my interests

[Phoenix @ May 13th 2009 7:07PM]

I'd go with somewhere close to impossible

[insky @ May 13th 2009 8:34PM]

I've never had problems activating other carriers phones on Verizon, but I've heard others haven't had any luck.

[substance90 @ May 13th 2009 6:21PM]

I payed more for an Xperia! If the Pre comes at this price, it`s going to be my next phone!

[TheSuburbanWhiteBoy @ May 13th 2009 9:14PM]

HAHAHAHAH you bought the Xperia? sorry to hear that

[alexicov @ May 13th 2009 9:50PM]

only 2nd degree approximation? tsk tsk

[TomTom2007 @ May 13th 2009 6:22PM]

Calculus... the nightmare still haunts me!

[Samurai Jack @ May 13th 2009 8:22PM]

Then you should sleep well, as this is just analytic geometry.

[MioTheGreat @ May 13th 2009 11:18PM]

Probably optics, by the look of it.

[ananimus3 @ May 14th 2009 12:05AM]

@Mio: Good eye. Looks to be a weak approximation of diffraction angles.

[ananimus3 @ May 14th 2009 12:05AM]

@Mio: Good eye. Looks to be a weak approximation of diffraction angles.

[Arjun @ May 13th 2009 6:23PM]

The rules of the sweepstakes also says that the drawing will be made on or around May 26, 2009. Does that give any confirmation about a release date some time in June?

[neodorian @ May 13th 2009 6:30PM]

But the contest ends on May 18th, one day before the rumored announcement in the WSJ.

http://i39.tinypic.com/2civb5.jpg

[Jonathan @ May 13th 2009 6:35PM]

The fact that it ends May 18th is more interesting to me than the 26th date. I don't know what it means, but it does line up with the WSJ 19th date, so...that's potentially something.

The winners are picked on the 26th and will be contacted within 5 days. That brings us into June. When you bring shipping into the equation, the June 7th release date still holds it's ground.

:(

[benjin @ May 13th 2009 7:26PM]

I don't think they would have everyone sign up, hoping for a free Pre, and then release it before the winner is selected.

Everyone would wait to buy on the one in a couple million chance of winning a free one.

[CraigJ @ May 13th 2009 6:24PM]

Wait, wait.. so equating lines 3 & 4, λ = sprint?

[KarlW @ May 13th 2009 6:36PM]

Yes, but then you've got to solve the second order differential equation for y, whilst ensuring the boundary conditions for the eigenfunctions of theta don't collapse the wavefunction and destroy the universe.

You're humanity's only hope.

[CraigJ @ May 13th 2009 6:39PM]

Hand me my math-ing pencil.

[r3loaded @ May 13th 2009 6:44PM]

Lol those equations don't actually make any sense, they're just a bunch of random algebraic expressions

[LondonConsultant @ May 13th 2009 8:28PM]

Just wondering what that strange symbol after the 'm' means?

[loginatnine @ May 13th 2009 8:57PM]

@LondonConsultant
Correct me if I'm wrong but I think it's the sprint logo!

[MioTheGreat @ May 13th 2009 11:20PM]

@r3loaded: They look like something yanked out of an optics textbook's interferometry chapter.

[Jonathan @ May 13th 2009 6:24PM]

I tipped this I tipped this!

Thanks for cleaning up the tax work, Engadget.

I would probably end up paying retail and I think $470 is a fair price based on what other phones are at.

Do you see what you've brought us to, Palm? Are you happy now!?