Entelligence: Six is much too much
By Michael Gartenberg 
posted July 30th 2009 2:15PM
posted July 30th 2009 2:15PM
Entelligence is a column by technology strategist and author Michael Gartenberg, a man whose desire for a delicious cup of coffee and a quality New York bagel is dwarfed only by his passion for tech. In these articles, he'll explore where our industry is and where it's going -- on both micro and macro levels -- with the unique wit and insight only he can provide.
Last week, fellow columnist Ross Rubin talked about the state of mobile platforms and how the era for launching new platforms has come to an end. I tend to take a different view of the mobile market. There are currently six major platforms vying for the hearts and minds of users and third party applications developers -- RIM's Blackberry, Microsoft's Windows Mobile, Apple's iPhone, Nokia's s60, Palm's WebOS and Google's Android -- and there's simply no way the market will support that many device ecosystems. But there may yet be opportunity for other players to enter the market.
This is not a new phenomenon. In the early 80s there were a multitude of personal computing platforms. Atari, Commodore, Radio Shack, Texas Instruments, Apple and even Timex (yes, Timex) all were in the personal computing business, long before IBM entered the game. All survived for a period of time selling to an enthusiast market with a focus on out of the box featuresets. Once the target became the mass market, however, user expectations changed from the out of box experience (which essentially meant programming in Basic) to additional capabilities provided by third party software. The success or failure of each PC platform was decided in no small part by the availability of third party software. Exclusive titles, best of breed titles, and titles that appeared on a given platform first determined winners and losers. The same thing is happening today in the mobile space.
The first wireless email devices (which were the ancestors of today's mobile devices) focused only on the out-of-box experience they provided and the core feature of email (and later on, web browsing). Even though all platforms had some degree of third party support (most notably Palm and Microsoft) most non-enthusiast users did not bother with those apps. Of course, the iPhone and Apple's App Store have changed everything. Apple marketed the iPhone not only to the business professional and the enthusiast but to the mass market. In doing so, it positioned core device features like email, web browsing, and voice as table stakes in the smartphone market. The new differentiator isn't the device itself but the added features provided by third parties.
More importantly, Apple provided a direct conduit for third parties to reach consumers through both iTunes as well as on the device. We've now seen efforts from the other five players to launch their own application stores and begin to reach out in greater ways to third party developers. As with the personal computer, it's these third party developers that are going to define which mobile platform wins wins and which loses. And like the personal computer space, six competing platforms will not all be able to gain sufficient traction to survive over the next three years. While we won't likely see a consolidated market with one overwhelming player as we did in the PC space (how that happened is another story for another day) we will likely see three platforms capturing the lion's share of the market with the rest slowly fading into the sunset along with TI/99a personal computer.
But that doesn't mean the market is closed. When Apple entered the market, there were many skeptics who said their effort was too little and too late. While there would be huge inertia working against any new entrant, we've seen from both Apple and Palm that new platforms can be launched effectively, capturing both mindshare as well as market share. While the PC industry is somewhat stagnating as both Microsoft and Apple prepare to launch new desktop OSes that are far more evolution than revolution, today's mobile platforms have dramatically upped the degree of functionality and capability. But none are perfect. There's plenty of room for innovation in the mobile marketplace -- someone will develop the next platform that leapfrogs the current generation. The question is whether it'll be one of the today's players or someone we've not heard from -- yet.
Michael Gartenberg is vice president of strategy and analysis at Interpret, LLC. His weblog can be found at gartenblog.net, and he can be emailed at gartenberg AT gmail DOT com. Views expressed here are his own.
This is not a new phenomenon. In the early 80s there were a multitude of personal computing platforms. Atari, Commodore, Radio Shack, Texas Instruments, Apple and even Timex (yes, Timex) all were in the personal computing business, long before IBM entered the game. All survived for a period of time selling to an enthusiast market with a focus on out of the box featuresets. Once the target became the mass market, however, user expectations changed from the out of box experience (which essentially meant programming in Basic) to additional capabilities provided by third party software. The success or failure of each PC platform was decided in no small part by the availability of third party software. Exclusive titles, best of breed titles, and titles that appeared on a given platform first determined winners and losers. The same thing is happening today in the mobile space.
The first wireless email devices (which were the ancestors of today's mobile devices) focused only on the out-of-box experience they provided and the core feature of email (and later on, web browsing). Even though all platforms had some degree of third party support (most notably Palm and Microsoft) most non-enthusiast users did not bother with those apps. Of course, the iPhone and Apple's App Store have changed everything. Apple marketed the iPhone not only to the business professional and the enthusiast but to the mass market. In doing so, it positioned core device features like email, web browsing, and voice as table stakes in the smartphone market. The new differentiator isn't the device itself but the added features provided by third parties.
As with the personal computer, it's third party developers that are going to define which mobile platform wins and which loses. |
But that doesn't mean the market is closed. When Apple entered the market, there were many skeptics who said their effort was too little and too late. While there would be huge inertia working against any new entrant, we've seen from both Apple and Palm that new platforms can be launched effectively, capturing both mindshare as well as market share. While the PC industry is somewhat stagnating as both Microsoft and Apple prepare to launch new desktop OSes that are far more evolution than revolution, today's mobile platforms have dramatically upped the degree of functionality and capability. But none are perfect. There's plenty of room for innovation in the mobile marketplace -- someone will develop the next platform that leapfrogs the current generation. The question is whether it'll be one of the today's players or someone we've not heard from -- yet.
Michael Gartenberg is vice president of strategy and analysis at Interpret, LLC. His weblog can be found at gartenblog.net, and he can be emailed at gartenberg AT gmail DOT com. Views expressed here are his own.
Really enjoyed this article. I look forward to more of this stuff, thank you.
Just because iPhone OS will always be exclusive to Apple it will never be the dominant mobile OS, Many American commenters seem to the S60/Symbian will be gone however I must state that the US is not the world nor is it the biggest mobile market. In the rest of the world the S60 platform is very popular (just look at http://www.theiphoneblog.com/images/stories/2009/05/gartner_smartphone_marketshare.jpg )
RIM's Blackberry => Very popular in the business, won´t go anywhere soon
Microsoft's Windows Mobile => getting old and is loosing market share. I would not be surprised if one day MS pulls the plug
Apple's iPhone => expensive, locked to one manufacture, fashion phone, like Mac´s they will never get a dominant share
Nokia's s60 => Actually it´s not "Nokia´s S60" but Symbians. They should start to innovate but current market share is large enough to survive
Palm's WebOS => Too soon to tell
Google's Android => With the weight of Google behind it, multiple manufactures of handset this may well be a real winner
Global market should be able to support 6 OS´s easily we are NOT talking about PC´s here but phones most people want one thing of their phone, that is to be able to make and receive calls (and texting) and only a limited set of programs is needed to be available on every platform for each smartphone OS.
PS: I had an iPhone.... most annoying phone I ever owned, currently back to S60 (also not perfect but is sure beats the Apple)
The smartphone wars aren't going to be won in the US. Whether Verizon carries the iPhone or AT&T carries Android phones is irrelevant. Please stop with all these incredibly US-centric predictions.
The real battleground will be developing countries such as India and China. There's a reason why Apple was willing to modify its product especially for the Chinese market.
I think that the whole premise of this is ridiculous... ask just about any single person that uses there phone what OS they're running and I can almost guarantee you that they don't have any idea.
Symbian is successful because of its massive implementation over the world, no one really knows that they're running it, but its works well enough and Nokia's get pushed EVERYWHERE (With the US being an exception). In all reality it boils down to brand awareness and brand name at this point. And from what I can see Android is falling into that same exact slot. Android is an OS that Enthusiasts and Tech Blog readers know about, but Google has done almost Zero to turn it into something special. On top of that, they're really no brand to tie it to, and in the end Consumers are going to go by Branding and Advertisement. Its sad to say it, but its absolutely true, and if you look at the mobile phone landscape, there are some truths that simply can't be escaped and they are as follows:
iPhone OS 3.0 -- IS AN iPhone
webOS -- IS A Pre
Blackberry Os -- IS A BlackBerry
WinMO/Symbian/Android are never going to have the press that these phones have, and because of that they may never have the mind-share that Apple/RIM/Palm are going to have. And in the end that is what it comes down to in the consumer market is mind-share. WinMO/Android will be successful for the sole fact that they can't NOT be successful. You can port the OS to whatever phone (Within reason) you want to, and its not carrier specific (For the most part), so success is almost guaranteed. But as far as Symbian goes, its not an OS that people are CHOOSING, its an OS that is simply on the device that they've purchased, and they're happen to be A LOT of those devices out there. But what happens when people start choosing the OS they want to run? The only way that happens is by brand identification, and the only brands out there with that.... Apple/Palm/Blackberry.
Sidenote on Palm: I agree with others in saying that Palm is an unknown at this point, but everything points to them being a huge player in the mobile market. I've used a phone from every carrier/os-manufacturer that's been talked about in the article, and WebOS is simply functional and smart, and it has Palm backing and Palm hardware (Weather you approve of the Pre's build quality or not). Palm is a presence weather anyone wants to acknowledge it or not.... we just have to see how long they can keep it up.
@Jasmine
Honestly, the only thing "app-centric" about the enV3 and enV Touch is their marketing. Verizon's Get It Now service is a very poor substitute for any of the "real" app stores, partially due to an anemic selection of programs, many of which were programmed with low-end dumbphones in mind, and partially due to the subscription pricing Verizon puts on many of the apps. $5 or so a month for Need For Speed on an enV Touch, versus $10 once for Real Racing on the iPhone is basically a no-brainer if you're going to play it for any extended period of time. Once you start getting into the massive number of $1-3 apps on the App Store, Get It Now just keeps looking like a worse proposition.
Personally, I don't see featurephones moving up the technology curve to compete with smartphones. We're already seeing a trend emerge where kids start with a basic flip or candybar dumbphone, move onto a QWERTY featurephone as they get older, and then onto a full-fledged smartphone, and I'd imagine this will continue for the next few years as networks transition to LTE and things like Android mature. The real trick would be if handset manufacturers start putting light-weight versions of Android into lower-end phones a la Symbian. If that happens, I could definitely see Symbian losing market share. Obviously, Android would need to provide something over a custom featurephone OS or Symbian for this to happen.
On the whole, though, the masses aren't going to care what mobile OS their phone is running as long as it does what they want it to do. I don't see iPhone OS going anywhere as people are probably already wedded to their App Store content (although the market share could definitely stagnate or shrink if Apple tries to sit on its laurels any longer), WinMo and BlackBerry are firmly entrenched in the business space and that almost never moves quickly, Symbian may be replaced if Android matures properly, Android could either become dominant in the consumer space or remain completely niche to anyone but gadget geeks pending its development, and WebOS is a total wild card since we don't know Palm's long-term goals with it. Basically, we currently have four established mobile OSes and we'll probably end up with four, maybe five, in five years.
Hey Engadget and people....
which one do you guys recommand out of the 6...?
i really like the N97 and i waited a while for it too, But after playing with my friends N97 and going thru reviews and forums,
it seems its really buggy....and its not what i really expected or i guess you guys expected as good as well...
i kinda like the new HTC Hero but so far i don't want to judge before i actually play with it.
im currently using the Iphone 2G, which i had for like the longest time.....i have the 4gb version...first gen =]
got it when it first came out...still using it right now as i speak...
been using the iphone for almost 2 years, and i want something new... i don't want to use a iphone and get a New iphone.
after using the iphone for so long i like my next phone to be touch screen too
so basicly in my mind either N97 or wait for the HTC Hero.
oh by the way, i'm in china, and N97 Black only cost $3800 (aprox. $550? usd) and white cost $4100 ( aprox. $600 usd)
thanks
Wilson
I don't see any of the current offerings going away in the next 5 years. The smartphone market is growing and set to grow significantly in the next 5-10 years. To assume that only four options will fulfill that need is patently illogical. In fact who is to assume that we don't have more? Sure market share will fluctuate but before Apple came along no one could have imagined what was about to happen.
So if you were having this conversation biP (before iPhone) you would have argued that current incumbent would take market share from other incumbent. The bang - along came Apple. Whilst we may not get another Apple, its a bit short sighted to assume there won't be another great-ish option that comes along.
Unless there is a takeover of one by another these offerings will still be here (just with different shares of an ever expanding pie).