Entelligence: The death of the PC is greatly exaggerated (at least for now)
By Michael Gartenberg 
posted August 7th 2009 3:30PM
posted August 7th 2009 3:30PM
Entelligence is a column by technology strategist and author Michael Gartenberg, a man whose desire for a delicious cup of coffee and a quality New York bagel is dwarfed only by his passion for tech. In these articles, he'll explore where our industry is and where it's going -- on both micro and macro levels -- with the unique wit and insight only he can provide.
In one of the great blunders of journalism, Mark Twain once found his name listed in the obituary column. His famous reply, "Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated," has forever become part of our lexicon for describing hyperbole. Yet, at a certain point in time, Mark Twain's death was no longer exaggeration and Samuel Clemens did indeed pass away. Today, many are lamenting the passing of the personal computer as the information device of choice for the masses of consumers, and like Mark Twain, the news of its death is greatly exaggerated. But like all good things, the PC and its complex operating system foundation will also eventually come to an end. Here's why the PC isn't dead yet but over time might no longer be the dominant platform for the digital age.
We've heard about the death of the PC for years. The internet, Java, and network computers all laid claim to killing the PC. Today, it's all about internet tablets and smartphones. Each has had a turn in the sun as the poster child for killing the PC, but the fact remains that the PC is alive and well. Traditional PC vendors still ship systems in record numbers even in this down economy, and the reason is simple: the PC is the ultimate Swiss army knife for information technology. Want the Internet -- with rich content, applications that live in the cloud, and the latest browser technology? Well, you need a PC. Need to access corporate information, communicate and collaborate with others? That's PC work as well. Even entertainment functions like gaming, managing music and photo collections, and social networking are still PC territory.
Unless you are willing to live with a subset of dedicated functionality, most consumers are going to want and need a PC. And while the Swiss army knife delivers a multitude of functions but does none of them well, the PC is both the jack of all trades and master of everything. For office productivity use, internet access, entertainment and communication the PC remains unrivaled in terms of its abilities. But that doesn't mean that the PC will live forever.
PCs have historically tracked two paths: 1) enhanced sophistication and functionality and 2) increased complexity. While empowered by new features, users have also contended with growing complexity that often obscures the task at hand. However, this trade-off has been better for most users -- that's why challenges to the PC like the stripped-down Network Computer have failed over the years. However, it's not hard to argue that PCs are becoming more complex than necessary and that other devices are offering simpler modes of operation and steadily increasing functionality are getting closer to crossing that magical "it's good enough" line. Today's smartphones are showing signs of reaching this point in the near future -- there's a growing class of user that leaves their laptop behind on occasion. The very flexibility of the PC that enables so many new tasks and functions may ultimately become its downfall. PCs are simply getting too complex, difficult and expensive for most consumers to master and maintain.
The key to any transition to life beyond the PC will be the ability of vendors to balance technology and features against complexity and functionality. We may see whole new classes of devices emerge that can take on the task of the PC in more elegant and easier to use ways. But that's for the future. For now, it's a PC dominated world.
Have you tried to replace a PC in your daily life yet? If you have, successfully or not, drop me a line and tell me about the experience.
Michael Gartenberg is vice president of strategy and analysis at Interpret, LLC. His weblog can be found at gartenblog.net, and he can be emailed at gartenberg AT gmail DOT com. Views expressed here are his own.
We've heard about the death of the PC for years. The internet, Java, and network computers all laid claim to killing the PC. Today, it's all about internet tablets and smartphones. Each has had a turn in the sun as the poster child for killing the PC, but the fact remains that the PC is alive and well. Traditional PC vendors still ship systems in record numbers even in this down economy, and the reason is simple: the PC is the ultimate Swiss army knife for information technology. Want the Internet -- with rich content, applications that live in the cloud, and the latest browser technology? Well, you need a PC. Need to access corporate information, communicate and collaborate with others? That's PC work as well. Even entertainment functions like gaming, managing music and photo collections, and social networking are still PC territory.
Unless you are willing to live with a subset of dedicated functionality, most consumers are going to want and need a PC. And while the Swiss army knife delivers a multitude of functions but does none of them well, the PC is both the jack of all trades and master of everything. For office productivity use, internet access, entertainment and communication the PC remains unrivaled in terms of its abilities. But that doesn't mean that the PC will live forever.
The very flexibility of the PC that enables so many new tasks and functions may ultimately become its downfall. |
The key to any transition to life beyond the PC will be the ability of vendors to balance technology and features against complexity and functionality. We may see whole new classes of devices emerge that can take on the task of the PC in more elegant and easier to use ways. But that's for the future. For now, it's a PC dominated world.
Have you tried to replace a PC in your daily life yet? If you have, successfully or not, drop me a line and tell me about the experience.
Michael Gartenberg is vice president of strategy and analysis at Interpret, LLC. His weblog can be found at gartenblog.net, and he can be emailed at gartenberg AT gmail DOT com. Views expressed here are his own.
The PC isn't going anywhere... It's just undergoing an evolution from what it was. What do you think all these new phones that have 800 mhz processors, 256 mb system ram, running windows mobile are considered? they're basically mini "personal computers".
The fact that laptops have increased in sales dramatically the last few years is just an indication it will be around for a long time. I'm in university right now and almost every one of my assignments now requires the use of a "computer".
Then look at game consoles. People want to say PC gaming is dying etc... no it's not. There are still dedicated PC gamers, and console's really are no different from the PC. Think about it, the Xbox 360 and PS3 are basically PC's. I mean you can play online, have chats, type messages, use services like twitter, facebook, store photos, videos, etc... They are basically PC's every sense.
If wanted to argue semantics, I'd say the mobile phone is really dying as opposed to computers. More and more people use their smartphones for everything except calling.
I'd say there's never been a better time to buy or build your own PC. should see how popular it is by phones and televisions incorporating PC-like features such as feeds, widgets etc...
People said the same thing about televisions when the PC came along, or when screens were put in cars etc... And the market only became stronger.
The PC is going through a change but so did televisions. The fact i'm hanging a 58" plasma on the wall and not a 25" CRT tube with dials sitting on a stand shows how they've changed as well.
Sorry to say, but this was a very useless article. My 7 year old cousin is using computers because his elemenatary school requires them to go online and do math problems. He's already proficient enough to enter websites, sign in, use other sites like youube etc... and he's 7 freaking years old.
As for PC's being too expensive. In 2000, I bought a compaq PC (i'm sorry I didn't know how to build my own yet) which was 900 mhz, 128 mb system ram, integrated graphics 40 gb hdd, 19" tube monitor, for nearly $1500. And it wasn't even the most powerful.
Now if I look at the FutureShop website, I can buy a Core i7, 1 tb hdd, 8 gb ram, 24" monitor for less than $1300, nvidia gts 250 and it is considered pretty top of the line.
The point is, when I bought the earlier Compaq for $1500 it was ALREADY obsolete, if I buy the new core i7 computer, it's pretty future proof for the next couple of years (maybe the graphics card could be updated).
Sorry for the long answer, but I broke it down to avoid a wall-o-text.
Who....said the pc was dead?
Exactly what I thought.....
It's a popular line among console fanboys, beyond that I'm not sure
I just discovered world of warcraft, so no, the pc isn't dead. I have kill more spiders and level up.
@OneLove
Get out while you still can, I lost a few friends along the way...
WoW is an undeniably sweet game.
Oh and please don't start with the whole "Seriously, guys, WoW destroyed my family" drama. If someone is letting a video game ruin their life than they have some other serious issues to contend with. It's a piece of entertainment not opium. L2get real excuses for inadequacies.
I must be living under a rock, because this is the first article I've seen that's saying the PC is dying.
PC's are not dying, everything else is just turning into a PC, and Computing itself is evolving. A more accurate statement would have been "Why Desktop PC's are Dying," or "Why Full fledged PCs will lose some market to various Internet devices." I guess he wouldn't get his typical swarm of replies if he titled his articles appropriately.
I'm sorry, but PCs are getting simpler. They are taking things OUT of the operating systems, not putting more in. Go ahead and try to find Hyper Terminal in Vista. (I'm sure there's a list of things that have been striped out of PCs, but that was the only example I could come up with.) The OS makers are trying to make the OSes as simple to use. Look at Ubuntu. It has very minimal features installed by default and it's a full fledged PC OS. Vista did the same thing, and took a ton of features out to make it more simple. They added some new things in, sure, but Saying PCs are becoming more complex seems silly, and highly inaccurate.
Do a poll where you ask what type of method you are using to view engadget.
I want to see if PC's are really dying.
These Entelligence articles keep getting worse. The logic and the premise in that were horrible.
And if it was dieing at all, Chrome OS will bring a new life to it.
WoW doesn't ruins anyone's life, you ruin it. It's always easier to blame other things...
But I don't use a PC. I use a Mac.
Ohmygosh - you've discovered how to beat obsolescence!
We don't care.
This is why I can't give Mac fanboyism any respect
This is why I can't give macs any respect. Apple practically encourages this kind of attitude.
@Ignofibininious
please end with a sarcasm tag
Give Ignofibininious a break for Christ's sake, he was making a joke
I think there are just a lot of douche bags who hate Apple so much they have to go after anyone who even mentions their name. If Engadget wrote an entry entitled "Ask Engadget: Who's your favorite computer manufacturer?", anyone who listed Apple would get flamed to death.
I use (not 'AM') a Mac. I love it, not because of the image and status symbol that it's purchase entails. I love my white Macbook because it is simple. I am in university, not for computer technology, I am there for medical and social sciences -- I don't need to be figuring Windows out, and trying to find what I need, when I have it right there for me on a Mac.
BEFORE YOU ALL POUNCE -- I do, however LOVE windows, and I am currently working on some of the bugs in Windows 7 RC using Boot Camp (another thing you'll not get on a Windows PC). I just has to be put of until my spare time, that's all.
Being the person looking from a mixture of perspectives, they are both PC's. Find the one you love -- be it Windows or Mac.
Nigeliciousx3
Yeah, Ignofibininious is right. On a similar note, I don't own a car, I own a BMW.
freakdiablo:
...which is a car.
@10minutehobo:
Thats the point. Macs are PCs the same way BMWs are cars.
Which is what Paul B Chapel said.
Ah nevermind, i'm just screwing around.
"The very flexibility of the PC that enables so many new tasks and functions may ultimately become its downfall. PCs are simply getting too complex, difficult and expensive for most consumers to master and maintain."
WTF you takin' about willis??
PC's are getting cheaper not more expensive..
ROFL!
Another thing i think he messed up is when he said that the pc was essentially a swiss army knife. I like the analogy but he got it backwards. Its the smartphones which are swiss army knives, doing everything, just not as well. The pc is the whole tool box that does everything and does it right. And when they make something that i can compare to duct tape, i am buying it.
This article further promotes my recent brain fart that we should be able to downrank articles and grey them out, just like we can the comments.
Exactly, I don't understand how anyone can say PCs are getting MORE complex then the old DOS and command prompt days. If anything things are getting more graphically simple and friendly and overly dumb down. While computers are supposed to be a do all machine, doesn't mean that you have to "do it all" with it though.
Seriously, someone explain where 90% of the "information" in this article came from.
I think PCs will stay. Maybe transform and change, but essentially, it's still a PC.
In the world of technically aware enthusiasts and professionals, the PC will never die. The rest of you can have your puny little smartphones.
Samuel CLEMENS.
And are you seriously contending that smartphones and tablet PCs are even in the same market as PCs? Is this a joke?
I'm so flustered I forgot to note that "Internet tablets" are PCs. But if the point of the article was that desktop PCs are considered dead or dying, I want to know who said it.
Dear Mr. Gart,
Sir Babbage is deeply dissapointed with you.
Thanks
PC
P.S. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_computer
tl;dr for the rest of us:
hey, guys! computers are useful! watch out, they might get old one day!
I have tried replacing my PC with multiple different mobile devices. So far the only thing that has even come close is the 10" Fujitsu laptop I had (before netbooks, I think it was the P1810 or something like that?) which isn't really a replacement.
Although also probably not a replacement my next try will most likely be an Archos or Viliv product.
i think the pc will never be DEAD as long as people prefer looking at things on a bigger screen
i mean who rather watch a movie on an iphone then a 13 or 15 inch screen and a pc is a thing that you can share with your friends try watching a movie with 3 others on the tiny iphone screen with the crappy speaker
If you want screen size, then the HDTV is the answer. And there are plenty of devices naturally connected to a TV ready to take over from the PC: video game consoles, media players, cable boxes, and even the TV itself. More and more of these devices are adding streaming video, you-tube support, internet browsing, etc.
13" or 15" screen? Try watching a movie on that? If you want to watch a movie with friends and family just use the Tv in the livingroom.
The PC is not dead or dying. It might take on other form factors (HTPC, All in One PC, Laptops, etc.) but it will be here for all of eternity.
And please get a larger computer screen.
Maybe he was underlining a trend that may be more of a back burner thought than an actual statement. I could see how some people would get the idea that maybe we are moving away from desktops and notebooks with all the attention that smart phones and netbooks are getting. I don't think it was that far out of line, interesting piece.
You can use cell phones and other mobile devices for certain *tasks* like email and web browsing... but you can't do everything from a mobile phone. How would a cell phone replace a 24" monitor? And no one is doing lots of typing on small mobile devices... no matter how good the keyboard is.
Smartphones today are amazing! But they are great phones... not great small computers.
In the future you may be able to connect a cell phone to a 24" monitor and a Bluetooth keyboard.
I use a laptop, and half the time it's in closed-lid mode, connected to a monitor and keyboard. Consolidating my desktop and laptop has been advantageous (only one CPU to buy, all my files on one computer). I'd consider consolidating my smartphone into the mix, if it was powerful enough to act as my desktop CPU.
@Col. Readily Apparent that's exactly how i took this article too.
And your name is pretty awesome.
The PC is immortal. Once invented, it became a fixed-point in time and space.
The Face of Boe died eventually you know.
exterminate.
There is one huge flaw I notice in all these articles predicting the downfall of the desktop pc, they base their numbers off sales by dell, hp, etc. I really don't know many people who buy a desktop from a system builder, they have become so much easier to build on your own and especially with sites like newegg out there, extremely cheap. Along with that, the desktop really is the platform of the enthusiasts, who I almost guarantee wouldn't step out and buy a Dell desktop.
but how many people are really enthusiasts? not nearly as many as those who buy dells. In fact, there is not a single PC custom build or from a boutique brand in my entire high school owned by a student. All have either a macbook or a cheap-o dell inspiron.
The average users overwhelmingly outnumbers the niche-nerds like use.
If you're looking to build a higher-end (for most people) desktop, as in like a $1,200+ system, then it is a much better route to build yourself. And these are the typical systems that enthusiasts and those with know-how gravitate to.
However, when you get into the cheaper PCs, like $300-$600 it's always a better deal to buy prebuilt. The savings are substantial, especially taking into account that you also get a monitor included. These are what most people are buying, and to build the same out of new parts would be more expensive. This is why the mainstream will not build computers.