Popular developer's stats suggest you can't make a living off the Android Market -- yet

For every rags-to-riches story in Apple's App Store, every amazing tale of Joe Coder in his basement turning a dead-simple idea into a few thousand dollars a day, there are... well, zero in the Android Market. At least, that's the impression we're getting by digging into revenue stats published this week by mobile game house Larva Labs, lamenting the stark disparity in the economics between the two mobile distribution platforms. Despite having two apps prominently featured on the Market's home screen and racking up sales rankings of 5 and 12 overall, Larva Labs' $4.99 RetroDefense and Battle for Mars games are grossing between about $30 and $110 a day for the company -- with a scant $62 average. As they wryly note, it's "very difficult to buy the summer home at this rate." Sure, granted, there's plenty of garbage in the hopelessly overcrowded App Store -- stuff that'll never earn a dime -- but what's a little shocking here is that both of these apps are Android Market superstars and they're still not able to cover the rent.

The problem is twofold: first, the target audience is smaller. Android simply hasn't achieved the global market penetration that the iPhone has -- at least, not yet. Globally, Android sales to consumers have totaled in the seven figures -- 5 million might be a reasonable guess -- whereas Apple's pushed another order of magnitude worth of devices, something on the order of 25 million iPhones, and if you tack on the iPod touch (which you should for the purpose of running these numbers) you're totaling over 30 million. Second, Larva Labs mentions a number of systematic problems with the Market -- teething problems that Google's yet to address -- including a lack of screenshots in app descriptions, a dearth of payment methods, the seemingly preferential treatment free apps receive, and a litany of miscellaneous bugs and issues (Android owners will fondly recall the inability to find updated apps a couple months back, for instance).

And now the million-dollar question, if you'll forgive our pun: will the Market get to the point where it's a logical business proposition for devs? In all likelihood, yes -- but it's going to take plenty of additional commitment from manufacturers, carriers, and Google itself to make the place a friendly joint for buyers and sellers alike. In the meantime, thanks to the wonders of modern capitalism, Android's app variety is fated to place a distant second, third, or fourth.

[Via Daring Fireball]

[JayMonster Posted Sep 1st 2009 8:13AM]

While no doubt that the larger user base is a significant factor, it seems (based on the feedback many/most paid apps have so far) that it is so far more about the mentality of the Android user base.

Just look at (almost) any paid app in the Android Market and you will see 1 star reviews solely based on the fact that it is a paid app, and "didn't I pay enough for the phone, why do I have to pay for apps" type of comments.

Apps that remain free by incorporating ads are also similarly lambasted in a similar fashion.

At least here in the U.S., the fact that Android sits solely (so far) on America's Least Reliable Network (T-Mobile) also does it no favors since it seems there are two types of people buying and using this phone, 1. the tech geek/ open source/ Linux "everything must be free" crowd and 2. people that see the G1/MyTouch as nothing more than a grown up Sidekick (thus just using what comes on the phone). Neither of which is exactly the target crowd to build a solid "buy the summer home" sales base from.

When (if) "Sholes" hits Verizon (and assuming it is any good), and decent functioning Exchange Support is *officially* added, Android will start attracting a larger user base, and one that is actually willing to shell out a few sheckles for an app.

[Mr 14 Posted Sep 2nd 2009 12:49AM]

Best comment I've read in a long time. +1 for you.

[(Unverified) Posted Sep 1st 2009 8:01PM]

The customer base is far smaller today. The potential however is great. A platform that can be deployed across networks and hardware has a far greater potential than a na iPhone can generate over time. There is no reason why many different hardware manufacturer will not adopt Android as their platform of choice. As an Internet Lawyer i deal with App developers all the time. Their innovation is the future of the mobile market. Don't get me wrong. I love the iPhone. I just can't wait to see vigorous innovation and competition across all networks and hardware.

[(Unverified) Posted Sep 2nd 2009 1:31AM]

Can't buy a thing from the Android Market here in Canada. Our wireless carriers are so corrupt and draconian the only way we can get apps is to go around the market altogether; hurting developers even more! I hope there is a solution soon before the whole business turns into a Napster disaster.

[(Unverified) Posted Sep 13th 2009 12:22AM]

5 million? I'd say 1 million tops. Until the fairly recent Hero none of them were really up to par anyway, you had to buy one because you wanted Android, not because you are the sort of impulse buyer Apple targets.

I can't even get a Hero that will work on my 3.5G network here.