Entelligence: The Muddled MID market
By Michael Gartenberg 
posted Oct 1st 2009 5:30PM
posted Oct 1st 2009 5:30PM
Entelligence is a column by technology strategist and author Michael Gartenberg, a man whose desire for a delicious cup of coffee and a quality New York bagel is dwarfed only by his passion for tech. In these articles, he'll explore where our industry is and where it's going -- on both micro and macro levels -- with the unique wit and insight only he can provide.
Frankly, MID is an Intel marketing term coined around 2008. In a 2008 Engadget post Intel's Dan Monahan described MIDs as having the following attributes:
- Consumer-class lifestyle devices
- Runs a 'lightweight" OS with quick startup like Linux
- Optimized for things like media playback and web surfing
- In 2009 (or so) Moorestown-based devices will be classed as MIDs only
For one thing, this class of devices -- often called 'tweeners -- have never done well historically. For years folks have attempted to bridge the laptop and the phone with something in the middle and it just hasn't worked. I'm not seeing anything in any of these MIDs that might change that.
Second, there's a limit to the number of device consumers will carry. For most consumers, it's two, and the max three. A MID therefore must dispalce something else in a user's hierarchy of functionality. If MIDs are just one more thing a user has to carry, they're not going to carry it. New generations of MIDs running Windows might look like they're designed to replace your laptop, but unless they can actually replace it, they're going to fail.
Let's not forget price is also huge issue. Dynamism sells the UMID mbook M1 for $599. That's for an Atom processor, 512MB of RAM, and 16GB of storage for a machine that doesn't run Windows at high levels of performance or usability. Other versions are going to sell for close to $900. Seriously, who's going to buy one of these things, except a gadget enthusiast? And not very many of them.
Consumers don't want a device that is too big for the pocket, provides less functionality than a netbook, and is priced like a laptop. |
One of my long-standing laws of consumer electronics is that there's a worldwide market for 50,000 of anything when it comes to gadgets. In the case of MIDs, however, it doesn't even appear that there's a for even that many. DigiTimes recently reported sales of just 30,000 MIDs worldwide compared to the 150,000 - 200,000 units Intel had estimated. Intel claims that the weak sales were due to the global economic downturn but I agree with Thomas Ricker's opinion: consumers don't want a device that is too big for the pocket, provides less functionality than a netbook, and is priced like a laptop. Adding telephony to the mix, as Intel announced with Moblin 2.1. won't change that at all.
Of course, a lot depends on how you define a MID. I think there's actually millions of MIDs out there, but it depends on whether you count devices that essentially are MIDs in terms of functionality (pocketable, connected, designed for web, email, media and other apps) as opposed to being branded as MID or running an Atom processor. What am I referring to?
It should be obvious. The most popular MID on the market isn't called a MID.
It's called an iPod Touch.
Michael Gartenberg is vice president of strategy and analysis at Interpret, LLC. His weblog can be found at gartenblog.net, and he can be emailed at gartenberg AT gmail DOT com. Views expressed here are his own.
Agreed. Slap a camera on there, with maybe even the ability to shoot video and Apple basically owns the MID market by the balls, without even calling its device a MID.
Personally, I'm holding out for something very SIMILAR hardware-wise, but that's non glossy and can have different mobile operating systems loaded onto it; basically all the win (mobile and ce,) and linux flavors (moblin, android, etc...).
iPod touch? iPhone? MID? Come on, I own an iPhone but it's not a MID, it's a smartphone. Although I'm writing this on it, iphone's web is pretty much a read-only experience and uncomfortable. Even this comment took about 5 times as long as it wouldve taken on a device with a keyboard and bigger screen.
Even browsing is like looking through a peephole. I only use it to kill time when I'm idle on a train, etc. I've used a lot of handheld gadgets, iPhone definitely has the best browser so far but there is a limit to its form factor.
About that tablet...
The form just doesn't fit its function. People looking for a device this small dont want to have to use it like a laptop-- but that's exactly what it's made to do.
Add a camera and touchscreen, along with a finger friendly UI, and then its pretty useful. But at that point, you're approaching smartphone territory, or at least what will be smartphone territory in two years or so.
Netbooks will live on because they aren't laptops or true pocket-friendly mobile devices - they fit the needs of a unique, but present group of users. But as hardware becomes cheaper and faster, the bridge between MID, phone, and camera will close, until we end up with some 5 inch touchscreen phone capable of shooting video in 1080p and running standard windows / linux / (probably not osx) apps.
by the way I was referring to the MIDs pictured at the beginning of my post - not the iphone (which although it is a slick device, cant properly compete with the processing power / program flexibility of machines like these)
Has anyone ever used Skyfire???
...2 words.
Flash support.
MIDs aren't going to take off until they can run desktop Windows. not Linux, nor OSX, nor even Windows CE, but bona fide x86 Windows.
The reasoning is that the masses won't buy MIDs unless they can run their PC applications on them, but companies won't rewrite those applications for another OS until there is mass adoption, so the solution is put desktop Windows on it.
"These devices all ran Windows"
I would guess we should expect MIDs to take off right now then?
Both devices in the photo are clearly running XP.
Honestly I don't want Windows anywhere near a low power device. I think Windows 7 is the way to go for desktops/laptops, and a Linux distro for less capable platforms. Using Linux also lets you use an ARM processor, and dual core 2 GHz Cortex A9's with 7-10 hours of battery life sounds great to me.
http://www.oqo.com/products/index.html
too bad they went out of business
as a teenager I lusted after an OQO
I still am a teenager and I still do lust after an OQO
Mark you can run full desktop version of Windows on many of these MID's. The problem with MID's as with all previous ultraportables is the price.
Netbooks came out and showed that people will buy tiny computers provided the price is there; they are very handy when traveling and with light document editing, movie watching and surfing they are perfect for that task.
Drop the price of these MID's to $200-$300 and you'd see tons of people buying them up.
The thing with MID's is they are very small; unless you can do a high resolution on that screen (thus making the screen and applications look even smaller) you have the majority of desktop/notebook applications displaying incorrectly/stretched/cut-off .
I agree. For me, price is really the only stopping point. A $200 price point would make it a no-brainer.
QUOTE:
"Second, there's a limit to the number of device consumers will carry. For most consumers, it's two, and the max three. A MID therefore must dispalce something else in a user's hierarchy of functionality."
Yep. For me, the device category I'd replace is portable game system. I currently have a PSP. I'd love to replace that with a Windows machine that would let me install more complex (albeit older) games. A $200 portable system that runs PC RPGs like Daggerfall & Baldur's Gate? Sign me up!
Yeah I never understood the whole MID market. I'd rather have a high end smartphone that's capable of phone stuff, internet browsing, games, music, etc. We have many phones that can do that. The problem for a long time was storage amounts but now it's battery life. please FOR THE LOVE OF GOD somebody invent a batter that can last a week! We would see innovation like never before with batteries like that!
Why do you want a week's worth of battery life? A full day of heavy use is about all I need, since I can always recharge the device while I sleep. I never understand why the average person would need more than a day or two of battery life out of a mobile device.
Totally agree, I pretty much have to make fresh batter every day. The stuff never lasts more than a couple of days.
Here's my perfect MID. Market it, and I'll buy it.
1) Must run all day on the battery, just like a smartphone. Thus, it will probably have a mobile OS. I don't particularly care if it's WinMobile, Android, or WebOS.
2) Must have at least a 4" to 5" VGA or WVGA screen. I don't know what type of skinny-ass pockets that you have, but I have no problem putting a device with a 4" screen in my pocket. I have a crappy 'ol Palm TX with a 4" screen that I carry with me everywhere.
3) Must be able to run full-blown copies of apps, so I don't have to lug a netbook around. Ever try using a netbook while standing on a subway train? Thus, the device must support dual operating systems. WinMobile and Windows 7, or Android and Linux. I don't care. Don't make me choose between real applications and battery life/always-on functionality. I want them both. If the device is going to be marketed between smartphones and netbooks, it has to offer something that neither provides.
4) A slide-out keyboard is a must for serious text entry. However, a decent touch screen keyboard is also a necessity. Again, don't make me choose. I want both. A device with a 4" to 5" screen should have the world's sweetest keyboard and plenty of screen real estate for a touchscreen keyboard.
5) It *must* have 3G. What's with all this WiFi shit? I don't get WiFi on the train, or on the interstate, do you? It's not much of an *internet* tablet without access to the internet, now is it?
6) Expandable memory. "Nobody needs more than 64K". Please don't tell me how much freakin storage I need, OK? Give me a damn SDHC slot so that I don't have to by a new model every year when you increase the storage.
As far as I can tell, no single device provides all this. If you do, you'll sell them in bunches. Seriously, as the article points out, you can't have *less* functionality than a smartphone or netbook. Now, combine all the advantages of both, and you'll have a winner.
@ spiny norman
me too
numbers 1 and 3 of your wish list contradict ! You say you don't care if it has a mobile OS of any kind, but then you say you want to be able to run desktop apps? even dual OS ?
So that device needs two different processors for both x86 and ARM. That kind of device in a pocket sized chassis, is simply not practical with current technology!
They sell that. For $1300. It's the HTC Shift. Take a pick - GSM/3G or CDMA/EvDO, same price.
Covers point 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. Runs Windows Mobile and Windows Vista (or Seven). The XDA-Devs community has un-crippled the Windows Mobile side so it works just like your regular ol' WinMo smartphone. Hit a button and you're back at the full-size desktop.
7" screen and 1.5 hrs of battery life doesn't fullfill Spiny's shopping list. Or mine.
Too bad the Shift never went anywhere... it was the answer to one of the shortcomings of UMPC/MID.
Want to check your calender/messages/email really quick? Instant on capability with SnapVue (like a weakened version of WinMo). Need Excel, bring XP to life (4-6 sec time to wake up isn't so bad).
I would buy one if they made it with a 5" screen and a 4 hr battery life.
The shift's incredibly poor battery even made the Sony UX series look good.
As tmarks11 points out, the Shift had a 7" screen, which is a bit too big. Also, at 2.2 lbs, it's
a beast. Lastly, the battery was poor.
Now, shrink it to 5", increase the battery life, add a Snapdragon and a dual core Atom, and
then we'll talk. :-)
You forgot one thing- a fluid,in browser flash player.
Openpandora.org
Does everything you want. 3G isnt standard, but nothing a USB dongle cant fix.
Any linux OS runs on it, aswel as android (being ported)
There are still some orders left for the first batch.
Can you say "Nokia N900"...?
Dude, the n900 has almost all of that... a 3.8" touch screen, slide out keyboard, 3G, it runs a version of linux called maemo (but you have root access right out of the box, so you can get it running a desktop version of debian and use full desktop openoffice and GIMP and stuff), it's got 32GB of built in memory AND a microSD slot! oh, and it makes phone calls.
Windows is a lightweight OS that has a quick startup?! Using Windows nullifies the very definition of your MID.
Wow, I think that these Entelligence articles are getting a little silly. Every time they end up praising an apple product of some sort or bashing Microsoft in some way. From the "Stain on my OS" article to this article where he calls the ipod touch an MID to the article where he bashed SPOT to the article where he coddles Steve Job's balls for his letter on DRM...
I'm tired of this... Can I have an Entelligence free Engadget?
I was thinking the same thing...
...would it be to direct to say "never would be a good time for Michael Gartenberg to write another article"
The bias makes me sick and is so anti-good reporting.
It's not bias. It just happens to be true.
The iPod touch owns the MID product space. I don't see how anyone can dispute that. The screen is a bit smaller than maybe what people considered "typical" for a MID, but otherwise the functionality is all there. More to the point, despite all of Intel's efforts nothing else comes close.
"It's the software, stupid." Intel and the rest haven't got that memo but Apple sure has. Trying to shoehorn a desktop OS and desktop apps (Office!? IE8!? Microsoft Mail!?) on a 5" screen has fail written all over it regardless of how good the hardware is.
Yes, it's smaller than a netbook, but until the software becomes at least reasonably easy to use on the platform, MIDs are dead in the water.
Netbooks are bad enough, as anyone who has tried to use Google Maps at 1024x600 under a desktop browser can vouch for. (less than half the screen ends up left over to display the map, the rest is toolbards, window borders, and that stupid Google page header) MIDs under a desktop OS/Apps are all that and worse.
Interesting read. Specially about Americans never wanting to pay more for smaller stuff. My view on the number of devices to carry: As few as possible, thank you. My view on the size: Make it pocketable, thank you.
I'd like to have the new Umid M2. So what's attractive about it ? It's totally pocketable, incredibly light, has a web-cam to enable video chat, allows me to show powerpoint presentations from it. It runs all Windows stuff.
Drawbacks, it does not have phone capability and the keyboard, by necessity, is small. Providing there's sufficient battery power, it would be even better with 2gb RAM than the 1gb on offer.
I travel a lot and I'm just tired of lugging a laptop with me. The Umid would be a nice substitute for my current small laptop. I won't get rid of the laptop, but there are times I don't have to enter a lot of text, or do other advanced stuff, and then the Umid would be perfect. I have more than one car. More than one motorcycle. More than one watch. I know there are Americans with more than one wife. Why not have more than one form factor computer? What is it about computers that make us want only one? Is it just cost?
I could also foresee bringing an external foldable keyboard, and hook the Umid up to the hotel TV screen for more serious work.
I don't see a contradiction. The device must provide all-day service, so it has to have a low-power chip
with an always-on mobile OS.
However, to support full blown applications, it must be able to boot to a full OS when necessary.
Power users will not accept reduced battery life.
I believe HTC had a device 2 years ago that had a dual-boot capability. I'm not sure how they did it, but it
is possible.
yeah it was the shift! but it was way too bigger than you want.
First, the "tweener" segment has been successful in the past. PDAs, in their heyday, were more powerful and more capable than phones and were smaller and lighter than notebooks. Since then phones have gained power and capability while note/netbooks have shed size and weight.
In order to compete today, the tweeners need to offer some combination that phones and notebooks cannot match. I would argue that they need the following:
4.5 to 5 inch screen, possibly OLED, to provide a better visual experience than a phone while still being able to shove it in your pants pocket unlike a netbook.
Weight of 8 to 12 ounces so that when you shove it in your pants pocket it doesn't drag your pants off.
3G connectivity for always-connected computing to have the web always available as opposed to most netbooks.
A full, standard browser to have more of the web (flash, silverlight, ajax, etc.) available as opposed to smartphones.
A large SSD to hold massive applications and media files without the heat, noise, power consumption, or susceptibility to shock of a HDD.
Beyond that it depends on whether you are targeting consumers (in which case I'd beef up graphics and audio) or business (in which case I'd add a thumbboard and run Windows 7).
Still, it wouldn't be a mass market item like netbooks, much less smartphones.
If you want to move it beyond a niche product, figure out how to DRM a movie on an SD card and cut a deal with a studio to put their catalog on SD. If that happened, I would be forced to buy one for each of my teens.
Given that netbooks and MIDs have more than common with each other than with phones or laptops, it's interesting that MIDs haven't taken off. They're more portable than netbooks, but as mentioned in the article, the prices bog them down. But should their prices fall, I'd think that MIDs would be more convenient than traditional netbooks. With Bluetooth tethering, they would make working from a phone on-the-go a lot easier with the slightly larger screen and keyboard, depending on which phone you have. Guess it's not meant to be.
Remember a mule Salesman will tell you that a mule is faster than a horse.
This analogy is to represent that all internet or web based news, websites or columns (like this website) can be biased and sometimes subconsciencly so towards internet or web based anchored devices. The relatively more powerful MIDs such as the UMID m1, OQO and the such are powerful personal computing devices ,which goes against their thinking or trade. So, subconsciencly they all prefer web based devices, and are unknowingly pre-exposed to bashing powerful personal or independent computing.
Once I read that the CEO of Oracle, Larry Ellison predicted that one day all software will be client / server based. . This prediction is influenced by the fact that his business is of said model. Maybe it is true that all software will be all web based one day, but I would like a second opinion from some expert outside the web community.
This collum is preety good. Ok, but i still have no idea why mids havn't taken off. In the ninteys, wasnt the future going to have like tablet pcs. The mids are almost there, but they just don't have the full work machine functionality. I am just waiting for a tablet that has an intel Pentium, something maby like 1.6 gigahertz with nvidia ion, and where i can do all of the things that i can do on my normal computer as on the mid. Multitouoch would be nice. Once they are like that, then i would buy one in a heartbeat. Courier anyone.
how do i down rank the entire post?
MIDS? I must have one of these. Where can I get one right now? This has got to be the best thing ever!
Like someone else said MIDS won't take off till they run Win7 have 2GB of ram and 160Gb hard drive. Basically just like smaller net books. Until then they are pretty useless and a netbook would work better. If you notice netbooks didn't start flying off the shelves till they became capable PC's running windows. Also price needs to come down to netbook territory. My 2LB 8.5 inch netbook running win7 is fast and very usefull and was only 250$
I would never casually bust out my netbook in public, but I would whip out an M2 or NetWalker without feeling like a herb. And it's much easier to carry an MID to the toilet, especially at work.
Make it cheap enough and we'll buy anything that allows us to access internet. I almost bought a Mylo back in the day.
A MID on the crapper? Yes, what a brilliant idea. The dumb 'MID' moniker has been holding them back. They
need a cool name like 'Netbook'.
How about Canbook? Loobook? WCbook? Dunnybook? Nettybook?
Pottytop
+1 Pottytop
There's no stool in the bathroom for me to rest my netbook on.
The number one thing bringing down MIDs is price. Nothing more, nothing less. Sure, battery life, larger screens, OS compatibilities, and the like will improve their functionality, but if someone has to pay 600+ dollars for it, it's not worth it. Hell, 400+ dollars is pushing it.
When did netbooks explode? When the majority of them went to the 200-400 dollar range, rather than these companies that loaded up on specs and tried to get people to pay 600+.
There are a lot of us who don't care about the price. I'd have no problem paying $800 - $1000
if they provided the specs I listed above.
Again, they have to offer something that neither smartphones or netbooks offer. You can't take
features *out*, and charge more. That's why the current lineup of MIDS is a miserable failure.
There simply isn not a large enough reason for mids to exist. Tablets fall into the exact same category except it has a use in select industry. General consumers simply wont buy enough of them.
The current MID that are succeeding have to be turned into mobile phones in function and form factor. See ipod touch, iphone, n97, n900, htc devices. Those and similar are the only workable mids and only have a market because they have a primary function; phone and or media.
What exactly is a MIDs function? Internet access. However phones already do that, can be subsidised, have a service association and are much more mobile than the typical mid as well as, importantly, they have purpose built applications that mids wont have. But most of all, these devices succeed over mids because they have real world application and purpose. There is no niche for any other types of mids unless it brands itself as having something else as a primary function. Nokia doesnt even know quite how to classify the n900 but to consumers it is clearly a smartphone. Again, the phone form of mids wins in mindshare and general consumer understanding. By itself, no matter how powerful, mids lack definition. They lack real purpose. They are the dot com trying to find a bubble.
Give me an Nokia n900 clone with Windows 7, 3G and a load of memory and I'll be happy.
A 3.5" screen? Does that come with a magnifying glass?
I like the form factor, but bump it up to 4.5" to 5" and you'll be getting closer.