Are DVRs actually going to save the network TV model?
By Richard Lawler 
posted Nov 2nd 2009 5:29PM
posted Nov 2nd 2009 5:29PM
Stay tuned for the network's latest DVR strategy: acceptance. Armed with the latest Nielsen data, ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox are rushing to tell advertisers that even with a set-top box and its bevy of pauses, fast forwards and 30 second skips at the ready -- we're guessing this doesn't apply to Media Center users on automated setups -- most viewers simply settle in and watch the commercials anyway. The New York Times breaks down the commercial-plus-three ratings system the networks initially opposed that could end up saving shows like Heroes from cancellation -- though a return to the old way of thinking might be worthwhile if it means an end to that show's now pitiable existence.
they are stupid.
they should adopt the old joost method of advertising by making a tiny pop up appear every 10 minutes WHILE the show is running. That way, there is no fast forwarding through commercials because there is only show = advertisers win. And, we can watch all show = consumers win.
That means they'll have to start producing 60 minutes of TV instead of 35 minutes or so.
OMG OMG OMG HEROES!!!!
I wish they would hurry up and start putting out TVs with DVR capability built-in. I've had it with enormous companies like Comcast/Rogers/TWC assaulting my eyes with garbage menu systems, making me rent an antiquated piece of trash that constantly needs to be rebooted and looks ugly alongside the rest of my electronics. These DVRs paint a plain picture of an outdated business model.
You should try a Windows Media Center Setup. Really is the best out there. I am impatiently waiting for my WIndows 7 upgrade to come in the mail. I've heard windows 7 MC is killer.
"...they should adopt the old joost method of advertising by making a tiny pop up appear every 10 minutes WHILE the show is running."
No. No they should not! I'm sorry, but this is the WORST idea ever. If they do this, many people will just stop watching TV and go find a written synopsis online to keep in the loop or go find something else to do. I'll be first. Ads are pervasive enough. We don't need any of this crap. Quit givin' 'em bad ideas.
"That way, there is no fast forwarding through commercials because there is only show = advertisers win. And, we can watch all show = consumers win."
I don't consider sitting through even regular commercials a consumer "win". Most people don't, which is why this whole thing is an issue because we all prefer to FF through them or hit the mute button. Advertisers and consumers cannot win simultaneously here. We already have popups informing us of upcoming shows and those are annoying enough. Having to put up with stupid pop ups every 10 minutes for product ads will indeed be a LOSS for consumers.
They'll just start adding commercials as pop-ups near the bottom of the screen.
Heh, I don't even own a TV. I just download everything I need.
Well, except football.
Have you not heard of FREE?
I think he has, as he downloads everything. Is your head full of cement?
Who uses DVR in this day and age? Are you in 1998? Have you not heard of a service called HULU?
your view is narrow, hulu.com only has a couple things I am interested in watching, and I am not alone on that.
Lots of things. Copy-on-write, low overhead snapshots (would have made Time Machine really fly), per-folder encryption, on-disk compression, file de-duplication, to name but a few.
Sure. And it doesn't work outside the US.
I'm pretty sure everyone with cable or satellite who has more than the basic channels has DVR. Hulu only keeps the shows for a few weeks, and then deletes them. With DVR, I keep them until I cancel my service or delete them myself.
Have you not heard of HD?
Haven't you heard of contractions?
Do the ratings work on DVRs? Say I'm out of town and it records House. Does Fox know I watched/recorded that episode of House? I usually record all my show JUST so I can skip the commercials.
I always wondered about ratings on my Set Top Box too.
If I turn to Fox News just to point out how stupid Glenn Beck sounds - I HOPE THEY DON'T COUNT ME AS A VIEWER???
They've are revising the rating system to show DVR viewership.
Cable companies know every activity you do on a DVR. When you pause, play, stop, and record. They know when you change channels and what channels their subscribers don't watch.
Nielson ratings are based on data collected from little black boxes that selected families have hooked up to their TVs. To supplement that data, they do telephone polling. So if you do not have a Nielson box, or a land-line to accept survey calls, it really doesn't affect TV ratings.
That being said, Tivo does gather stats on DVR usage, as well as I would imagine most Cable and Satellite system provided DVRs. An example, Tivo announced that the Janet Jackson Superbowl fisaco garnered more replaying than any other moment they had gathered stats on up to that point.
Ultimately the lack of tracking for traditional live TV watching is another reason that networks may want to consider becoming DVR and streaming friendly. They know when I watch an episode on Hulu and with cookies can tell my viewing habits pretty accurately. With DVRs that can be tracked they likewise get an idea of how many commercials I am watching or skipping. Proof of advertising views could be theoretically monetized more reliably than the speculation of advertising views that Nielson provides.
Glenn Beck is a clown, I have to suffer seeing him sometimes on the gym TV's bc asshole doctors watch Fox news liek its the new Scientology
ProffessorK
To hell with that... punch him in the face and change the channel. Works for me.
Nielsen also has software that runs on DVRs, so yes they can tell what a Nielsen home is watching at all times. And no they don't just monitor everyone, just a specific sample, it's all very scientific really.
Just advertise on radio. You get a much larger audience for much cheaper price.
And some of you might no believe, but terrestrial radio still beats any TV channel's viewers and blows away satellite radio subscriber numbers.
You are out of your mind - the most popular radio show on the most popular radio station in the most populated city wouldn't even touch the viewership that a below average prime time sitcom pulls in.
If you are going to throw out a claim like that - you need to provide some numbers....
patiently waiting for Matts numbers... lol
Actually, he's right. You're probably thinking of local ads, while he's clearly talking about syndicated ones. They get played more often than TV ads, and its a fact that people don't channel surf on the radio very much during shows. A popular radio show can easily have ten million dedicated listeners, and that means a greater number of ears actually *listening* to the ad than TV. Plus you can't fast-forward unless you recorded it, which very few radio fans do. If you need numbers their readily available..try Premier Radio Network, for example.
If you miss a network TV show you can watch it on HULU, but, most of the stuff on is garbage anyway so I don't really miss anything.
I like watching "Lie to Me" and if i miss it, I catch it on HULU.
As I have FIOS TV I could opt for a multiroom DVR so I can watch the recorded show on any box my hose, but, once again, most of the stuff on is crap. You want real TV you gotta have HBO, Cinemax, Showtime.
The programming is excellent:
Hookers at the Point
Pimps up Hoes Down
Aqua Teen Hunger Force
Cancun Co Ed's
Bill Maher
The list just goes on and on.
"Any box my hose...?"
Just what *are* you watching..?
the only thing that's going to save Heroes is better writers. get back to the magic you had BEFORE the strike.
Stopped watching because it blows chunks. It's just a bad soap opera now with superhero powers.
Nailed it. Heroes was one of the few series shows I've regularly watched.. ditched it after the writers' strike.
i cant agree with you more. though its kept me watching and its not as much of an EPIC FAILURE that LOST has turned out to be.
Sylar is the only thing left (almost) worth watching now. The Carnival leader guy is not bad, but everything else (even Ray Park) sucks. Hiro used to be cool, but now he'd dying and I don't care.
"EPIC FAILURE that LOST has turned out to be."
?!?!?! Have you even watched any of Lost (after Season 3 which did almost kill Lost for me)?
Same deal with me as well. This show had lots of potential, and season one more or less delivered ( excepting a few lame story lines that I didn't care about at all). The mini season before the strike was kind of boring, but did introduce some intriguing story possibilities. After they came back from the strike, though, it was just horrible. Character motivations were completely out of sync with their established backstory, and plot gimmicks became the standard. It was sad, because I really wanted to like this show.
Never watched a single episode of Hero's or Lost, good to know I didn't miss anything. However, I was a little annoyed they canceled Terminator TSCC.
It is going to take a lot more than that to save Heros from it's sophomoric writing.
I don't have cable. I download every television show I watch, even those I could watch in HD on broadcast television.
I mainly watch live sports on pirated streaming sites, but now Cox has just given me free ESPN360 so now I have absolutely no reason to pay for cable!
Most engadget readers are probably in a similar position. Why pay for cable ever again? Why even bother watching broadcast television?
I'll be watching Monday Night Football in a couple of hours in very nearly HD for free care of nameless strangers. $35 bucks a month and I have all the digital entertainment I could ever hope for, in HD, as soon as it airs or is released. And then Cox sends me flyers to sign up for cable!
I also use this same connection to send emails to congresspeople to support net neutrality. Doesn't get much better than this.
That's fine and all. But you do understand that this system works BECAUSE most people aren't like you. If enough people get to be like you the ratings will fall, the advertisers will pull out and the shows you want to watch won't get made anymore.
@Fanfoot - I'm not so sure Bryan's viewing methods aren't sustainable with widespread use. True, he's downloading TV shows sans commercials, but product-placement in TVs shows could still pay for production. He's "stealing" Monday Night Football, but is that without commercials? it seems to me the one getting hurt the most is the cable provider middleman (although Bryan's probably paying them for internet access). The producers of televised content would probably be just as happy to cut out the middle-man as Bryan is, as long as they still get paid. They don't have to get paid by Comcast as long as they can figure out a way to go straight to the customer (end viewer). I'm not saying I know how this system would work, but I am saying I don't see how a cable-TV company HAS to be a part of it to keep it sustainable.
The only thing that will save Heroes from cancellation is new writers.
DVR's what?
Then probably studio would think about have ads on during the show like the old day, they did. Would that annoying you? *shurg*
BTW, Hulu may not be free by next year. Watch out!
If hulu isn't free, one of the other hundred streaming websites will be.
i leave commercials in my 7MC recordings, one cause it's too much shit to set up, and two i need a break for a sammich or coke
I hammer the fwd skip button about 6 times each commercial break.
TV right now is very much like a bloated balloon, and I soon expect it to blow.
advertisement/programming ratio has started to get as bad as 50/50. That's unacceptable. Of course networks need the money from ads, but even more so because for every 5 minutes of ads you eliminate, you have to make 5 minutes more TV. It appears that television as we know it is just no longer a profitable equation, also because internet is eating chunks out of the ratings.
Despite TV's ongoing popularity, I hope TV producers have a foreseeing eye. TV being like this, with advertisements and crappy writing and all, I can't blame Bryan for pirating his shows. At least that's commercial free.
I predict an on demand system for TV. Broadcasters no longer produce 24 hours of television, which, admittedly, is ridiculous. Instead, they 'release' their shows and programs on a given time of the day. As a viewer you're free to start streaming them whenever you feel like it. Because there is no need to fill the day up, less TV will be made so more money can be invested per hour of TV. Also, it's fair for viewers because this allows a service where you pay, based on how much you watch.
Just tell me- why WOULDN'T this work?
Right so I just realized you already have that in the States, sort of.
What's taking europe so long?
This service already exists. Its called Neflix ;)
I think TV as we know it is on its way out. As it is now, If I forget to record or watch something, I end up downloading it. I find myself downloading more shows than actually watching them on my TV.
Today's viewers are the MTV (during 80's) Internet and videogame generation.
We want things now and can watch things in high speed.
I don't know about you, but I can still view commercials in Fast Forward mode.
If there is a commercial that interests me, I'll actually rewind and watch it.
Before Tivo/DVRs, I would either switch channels during a commercial or go to the bathroom or kitchen during them.
Now, I actually see more commercials than I used to (albeit in fast-forward mode, but I still know what they are selling).
Here's the trick to making people watch your commercials: make them entertaining and not annoying.
Who are these people that aren't skipping the commercials? I thought that was one of the biggest reasons to have one.
The end result of people like me is that advertising will become embedded in the programming in ways that you cannot possibly ignore. This already happens, of course, but producers and advertisers will find better ways of doing it.
It's called product placement.
Other ways of promoting products or services already exist. Market manipulation (release/produce news event that causes product/service to be placed in front of consumers 24/7), viral advertising (blogs like this one), embedded advertisers (person on that forum you like making slight mention of how product is super cool, has a few knocks, but is still the best available), and the good old commercial ensure that those TV programs will never, ever, go away. It's far too convenient a way to focus audiences and target consumers. Every television show you watch, particularly on ABC, CBS, NBC, and Fox, is bought and produced because it targets a certain audience that an advertiser is after. They exist so that advertising may be sold.
Product Placement and long tail advertising don’t have the same range of support or impact.
If I watch Heroes (because it’s the one in the article) in the US I get a completely different set of ads to watching it in the UK. For Product Placement to work the investment from the advertiser would have to displace the loss of revenue from the US, UK, France, German and other countries local advertising which allows the TV stations in those countries to buy the program from the creators from the local advertising funds they use to have.
Then a mechanism for this amazingly huge product placement fee to be distributed to the creators of the program and then every TV station and broadcaster across the world who broadcasts the show has to be worked out.
If product placement was to be the main advertising model there are probably 20 or 30 brands with enough global reach for a product placement in the US, Norway and Africa to be valuable to them.
Depending on long tail, word of mouth promotion of products is for the most part noise. It’s not a sustainable advertising model for now. Think about the average Joe and not the iPhone buying, media centre connected home fanatic. They have an HD TV, DVD player, computer, broadband. Mainly use their computer for shopping, surfing and email.
Don’t rip DVDs, don’t bittorrent, have ripped the odd CD but don’t care about illegally downloading content. Yes, this is more the average. For these the long tail promotion will not reach them but a 30 second spot during their favourite TV program will definitely be seen and maybe acted upon.
Without the funding we get crap TV.
I expect I’m not the only one who looks at the number of channels I have access to and then looks at how much of the content I actually enjoy watching and figure out it’s probably less than 1%. No money mean crap TV. More money means more creativity and better production. Which means better TV.
Until we can figure out a way to raise enough money for the high quality programs to be made that are international hits I am more than happy to watch some ads and support the media industry. The moment we figure out a way to get rid of the ads and still have quality TV I’ll be first in line.
I torrent all my shows. I'm not saying its legal nor am I suggesting it to anyone else, I'm just throwing out my method of tv watching. they ought to distribute all they're TV through torrent along with commercials, they'd be able to track it better.
Some Exec is like "these guys are a bunch of suckers" meanwhile not one person i know watches the commercials, everyone leaves/fastforwards/downloads :)
I think this is obvious but to be honest who cares about commercial. I would say 1/10 commercials are interesting or influence me in anyway at all.
Really f you guys at engaget Heroes is a great show not just in season 1 but even now its still a great show and what i find funny is that people like u love to hate on Heroes but will never say a bad thing about Lost even though it has one of the most convoluted storylines in TV history and its 2nd and 3rd seasons were in many instances laughably bad. But no Heroes is just a piece of crap even though it has been one of the most popular shows globally and unlike Lost the writers of Heroes were willing to take chances and bring the viewer something unexpected and in some cases compleatly random which underscored the overall comic book feel of the show.
And be fair It took Lost 3 seasons to realize that the flashback needed to stop and really be honest how many times can we see Jack and Kate's life before the plane crash it was ridiculously repetitive.
There are no commercials with my DVR. It takes them out automatically.
Vast majority of TV viewers pay for it (Cable, Satellite), we should be able to watch TV commercial free. Actually I'm not completely against commercials, just interruptions. I would rather they pile all the commercials at beginning or/and end of the programs.
Anything that I have to watch on tv is DVR'd, even sports. I let an hour go on football games just to avoid a bunch of commercials.
I've noticed that a few commercials seem optimized for FF viewing, and like a previous poster while it is whizzing by I'm stilling looking at - in some cases perhaps more intently than if it just played while I let my mind wander.
They must be on crack. I use Windows media center (7) and I skip over commercials ALL the time. It is so easy and quick to jump forward or back that it's very easy to do.
On top of that, there is software out there that you can install and will skip commercials for you. The replaytv even had auto commercial skip. Oh yeah !
Windows 7 MC, the BEST dvr out there.
until they lower the volume on commercials to an ambient level i will continue to mute them. why is it the ads are louder than the show you are watching? they give us no choice but to do whatever it takes to remove the obnoxious noise.