Gartner forecasts phones overtaking PCs as most common web browsing device by 2013
By Donald Melanson 
posted January 15th 2010 8:12PM
posted January 15th 2010 8:12PM
Predictions about phones overtaking PCs at one task or another are hardly anything new, but research firm Gartner has gotten a bit more specific than most with its latest forecast -- which, among other things, foretells of a day when cellphones will be the most common device used for browsing the web. That momentous event will supposedly happen by 2013, when Gartner expects the number of browser-equipped phones to exceed 1.83 billion, compared to 1.78 billion old fashioned computers in use. According to Gartner, however, while browser-equipped phones will outnumber PCs by then, they won't actually be most folks' primary browsing device until sometime in 2015. In other prognostication news, the firm also says that fully three billion of the world's population will be able to make electronic transactions via mobile or internet technology by 2014, and that by as soon as 2012, 20% of businesses will "own no IT assets" -- meaning that employees would be using their own personal computer, and that the businesses themselves would be relying on cloud-based services.
people just can't get away from their inter webs. they have to take it with them constantly
Very true. By 2013, the only thing PCs would be able to do that smartphones can't will be hardcore gaming... If battery life makes good strides, PCs won't be that big a deal.
Haha Microsoft!
http://www.itu.int/net/TELECOM/World/2009/newsroom/pdf/stats_ict200910.pdf
http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2009/mar/03/mobile-phones1
Every day I read reports about this or that 3rd world country deploying WiMax...
@myislanduniverse And, damnit, Engadget, can I ever have an avatar? I've uploaded like 30 of the things...
@myislanduniverse They don't want to let me have one either. What's the deal with that? How do I get it to work?
@Wesley
I gave up in the end, tried everything.
Microsoft has been saying and planning for this for some years now....
@Jon Rubinstein If this is true, you guys from Palm need to make a webOS device with a bigger screen.
@Edobe They could start by making more than 2 to 4 devices.... While letting everyone else dominate them
Don't really see it happening. The most abundant internet capable device perhaps. I can not use a phones internet for an extended period of time, whereas I can a computer. The sheer lack of productivity a phone allows when doing much of anything, is pretty limited. These things could change in the future, but I really don't see that huge of a change in the next 3 years.
As far as everyone using their own personal computers, and having 20% of businesses owning no IT services, I'd be extremely surprised. I am in the IT field, and can tell you that securing someones personal laptop/pc is honestly not worth the hassle involved. People take their laptops home and they get plagued with all kinds of malware, then bring them back to work where they have a habit of spreading. I guess they could use something like deep freeze, but for a personal laptop thats pretty meh.
phones can't even load flash sites correctly so they stink right now anyways.
@zuyn That will change very soon.
the only thing you are going to see in 2013 is RIM's announcement that a working browser will be available in 2015.
@Jon Rubinstein
Don't think so. I'll bet people will prefer larger screens of tablets / slate computers / color e-readers.
its impossible that we survive past 2012!
I predict the end of cell phones and voice service plans. Instead, some entrepeneur is going to sell unlimited data only plans, and you will have to buy am unsubsidized device on which calling is merely one of many apps.
the only device i ever really liked using as a web browser was my archos 5 any smaller than 4.3' is to small for the web even my TP2 is not so fun using it online(i hate scrolling for hours to get to the middle of the dam page)
Not with carriers that charge an arm and a leg for data plans and try and restrict things that compete with their product like VOIP. Good luck with all that.
@Jon Rubinstein
These analysts are incredible huh, I mean they must have really think tanked this one, I can almost see the wall sized displays of streaming data being crunched by teams of experts while analyst boffins argued back and forth, straining themselves to see the future.
I hope no ones pays them for this piece of freakin gold. I reckon we get a bunch of commentors from engadget and start our ow analyst firm called "f..king apparent projections"
We could make huge sums of money selling to investors such sooth sayer items as "FAP expects MS to release a service pack in 2010" or "FAP sources have advised a new iPhone will come mid year"
The headlines would be all like FAP FAP FAP
2013 i think it will be sooner then that i know in my house ,there are 6 internet users 3 of them are mobile phone only and other 3 are both mobile and pc,and i bet there nothing special about my house
I'm not certain whether phones will really be the web browsing device of choice for the majority of consumers. By 2013 most phones sold will have the capability to browse the web but I suppose most consumers will only use it now and then. What they will use much more will be services they can access via apps: facebook, foursquare, layar and so on.
@Cy Starkman
Actually they're not far off. A lot of people in, say, India and China will use a mobile as their primary device because they simply cannot afford a computer. As smartphones become more available at lower costs - a fact that companies lie Nokia recognise - more people will view the web by them.
You need to think of the world rather than just one small part of it which, although very wealthy, only represents about 10% of its population.
@Goona
Actually, you're wrong. Nokia are driving this one.
But then I wouldn't expect anything better from a racist arsehole like you.
Classic Analyst's Fail:-
The X market will be Y big in Z years.
(c) Gartner.
@jbond
The best way to prevent something happening is adamantly predicting it will happen.
@gerrrg We will have fold out or roll out screens by then for cell phones (if the world is still around).
I seriously did not think this would happen so soon. But now that I've started thinking, I think I'm already surfing more with my N900 than with desktop. The experience is of course still better on desktop, but to me N900 is finally "close enough".
I have yet to come across a page that I couldn't use (the normal version) and almost all display perfectly the same on desktop Firefox. The speed is good and no zooming is usually needed. Booting up the
PC is more of a bother.
More to the point, I think in a few years a smartphone can mostly replace the laptop. If you want to sometimes enhance the experience, you can already pretty easily connect a display and keyboard & mouse to N900. That fails mostly on the poor display resolution (basically TV out) and ease of use. Within two to three years though, with better CPU & GPU combos, maybe a DisplayPort as out, this could be great.
I can imagine in 2015, in my university library, there will be rooms full of monitors on desks without computers. You are expected to connect your mobile device to monitors. KBs and mice will be supplied.
I have to wonder how many years after 2013 it will be before the amount of data exchanged by phones exceeds that of PCs.
Combine 5GB data caps with small screens and keyboards, and I think my point becomes obvious.
Sorry I prefer browsing the web on my 52" Samsung with HTPC, a phone is just not the same experience.
@MarkAnderson "Fu!#ng Apparent Projections" means that he agrees with them. Reading Comprehension buddy. He was saying in his comment that this information is so obvious to anyone, that it is astounding that these firms get paid big bucks to write this stuff.
@Palomino
Apologies. My sarcasm and stating the bleedin' obvious detectors were off.
A while back I looked into the accuracy over time of market analysis companies like Gartner , Forrester Research and other who often get quoted in the media ( not by accident since its an important part of their business model) . If I a had dollar for everyone of their predictions that never come to pass I'd be a rich man. These guys are shills in the "we'll write a report to support anything you wan't" business. Take anything they pronounce with a large grain of salt.
How??? It's hard enough viewing web pages on a 21" LCD, how can anyone read one on one of those silly phones????