ARM-based processors to overtake x86 competition in netbooks and MIDs by 2013?
By Vlad Savov 
posted January 22nd 2010 5:26AM
posted January 22nd 2010 5:26AM
We suppose industry analysts must be paid on account of just how grand their prognostications are. ABI Research know-it-alls have come out with their own spectacular claim today by asserting their expectation that x86 processors -- still dominant the world over -- will be swept aside in the rapidly developing "ultra-mobile device" space by the ascension of ARM-based processing architectures. That the Cortex CPUs have grown in popularity (and power) is undeniable, but who realistically expects Intel to sit back and watch all this happen? The x86 patriarch has even gone and created an Atom SDK, so we hardly expect the forecast table above to become reality. We're just happy to see that ARM's lower power profile is attracting investment -- it's always good to see a threat to Santa Clara's chokehold on the CPU market, and AMD's sleepwalking through the past few months hasn't helped things. Now if only those Tegra 2 smartbooks were on retail shelves instead of inside prototype shells, we could get started on this supposed revolution.
This means more widespread linux adoption and more competition for Microsoft and Intel.
I'm ALL FOR IT!
@Eternity ARM is in many device include iphone nds psp mose (if not all) e-reader
it's not competition to microsoft as microsoft have windows ce, windows mobile and ... zune
@put4558350 Doesn't aren't exactly superior platforms to the Linux ones that run faster, more flexible and secure, less bloated and more stable....
@Eternity
I hope so.
But let's face it... these 3-year "predictions" must be taken with a grain of salt. Three years ago, Apple had just announced the iPhone... who back then had a clue where hardware would stand today?
@Eternity It all comes down to bussiness and marketing.
how long have linux users been saying that it would take over?
How long has it had a < 3% market share since it came out?
(Answer to both is, since it came out 20 years ago)
@SirNoDroin I don't want it to take over. I just would like to see a more even playing field in the OS and Architecture market. Innovation will go through the roof and we will see amazing things, also we won't be stuck with NTFS and FAT anymore or any of those headaches associated with running software and hardware across multiple platforms because the OS makers will be forced to play nice with each other. Linux also forces people to learn more about the inner workings of their computers, which means more computer literacy and me having to spend less time drawing charts and diagrams explaining shit to people. ;)
May the Best technology win, all hail the End User!
@put4558350 The PSP uses a MIPS-RISC architecture, not ARM.
@Eternity
Isn't Intel a major code contributor to Linux? Or do you still think that Linux is done by "thousands of enthusiasts" in their free time?
@vangrieg I equate X86 market share with Windows adoption not linux.
yeah androids gonna be all over the place
This is something microsoft and intel dreads
Many of these arm devices use linux, and if consumers starrt to get used to linux more will eventually end up at the desktop too. And then there's no more wintel lockdown of the market, the worst nightmare of intel and microsoft.
@newone You've made two assumptions:
a) That Microsoft won't release an ARM-optimised version of Windows if ARM-based devices do take off
b) That anyone is really interested in Linux-based computing.
@newone
Well 95% of people won't know how to use linux until it gets rid of all that terminal stuff so i hope Microsoft makes something like Windows 7 for ARM
@jakem
Microsoft could quite happily develop a version of mainstream windows that ran on ARM. After all, the NT kernel has already got several different versions: x86, x86-64, IA64 (Itanium), PowerPC (XBox360) and there was even a version for the DEC Alpha.
The main problem is that every single app and driver which runs today on Windows would need to be re-compiled and re-tested for an ARM version... so there's not really a huge advantage to them doing this because you still wouldn't get all that you get with the Wintel ecosystem.
People want Windows / x86 because they can plug their MP3 player, printer, scanner and everything else in and there will be drivers for it, and all their applications will work (iTunes, games, web plugins, MS Office, security for business environments, etc).
They won't get that with ARM even if MS port Windows 8 across without some kind of new emulation layer, which would run pretty badly and then you'd be better off just sticking with an Atom.
@newone
You forgot about Apple. SL only runs on x86 machines.
@fnuky That could be an issue but it wouldn't effect every application. For instance, .NET applications would run fine so long as they have been compiled to run on any CPU. I presume Java apps would be fine as well (not that anyone actually uses Java apps). Drivers might be a problem for things like printers but Linux will face the same problems as well.
@fnuky
Netbooks are a really good starting point for linux as they are going to have standard hardware, and mp3 players etc have been used with linux for years.
The wintel lockdown is partly customer, partly hardware/software manufacturers. OSX is at about 5% marketshare, linux 1%. If linux starts to get to the same numbers as OSX there will be more support for it from industry. And with more support more people will start to use it.
Microsoft wont probably make a linux version from Office, unless forced to by antitrust laws, but many other programs do. Mostly engineering related but they show that wintel lockdown isn't unbreakable. If there's demand industry will start to support linux.
@newone using percents when talking about linux and OSX and windows isn't putting it into perspective
I'm going to go by the 1.83Billion people that use the internet
of those
1 628 700 000 use windows
183 000 000 use mac
18 300 000 use linux AND other platforms.
If you see the disparity in those numbers you can see the zero profitability that there is in linux as an OS platform.
People hate changes, windows works, why switch?
Fortunately your comments reflect a 1998 level of understanding of Linux.
> People hate changes, windows works, why switch?
Windows doesn't work. It is just perceived as the only option, primarily due to long time market dominance (since MS-DOS) and hyped up fears about "compatability".
New gadgets are developed. Old monopolies force change on their customers. Old monopolies continue to make the same mistakes as if they are immune from competitive pressures.
Yeah, come on people, get them on the shelves already, please!
I'd love to see some ARM-powered ChromeOS devices at the end of the year. Amazing battery life and lightweight ftw.
"it's always good to see a threat to Santa Clara's chokehold on the CPU market, and AMD's sleepwalking through the past few months hasn't helped things. Now if only those Tegra 2 smartbooks were on retail shelves instead of inside prototype shells, we could get started on this supposed revolution."
Ummm, you guys know that NVIDIA's headquarters is in Santa Clara, on the San Tomas Expressway none the less (San Tomas Expressway becomes Montague Expressway when you cross US-101, and Intel is right off the Montague Expressway). They're only about a mile apart.
And, of course, AMD is only about a mile away in Sunnyvale.
Now, ARM is in the UK, but they don't actually design ICs. All of the ARM-based CPUs and SOCs you see are designed by other companies (like Samsung, TI, or Qualcomm) based on ARM IP. In some cases (like the TI OMAP3) the core design is licensed from ARM and the designer adds other features like graphics and wireless; in others (like the Qualcomm Snapdragon) the core design is actually done by someone other than ARM (but still based on ARM IP).
Atom still can't match the ultra-low power consumption of ARM, but for many applications it doesn't have to. If Intel can get Atom's power consumption down to (for example) 0.5W, then the power consumption of the LCD and wireless (in a netbook or larger tablet) is large enough that moving to a 100mW ARM doesn't really improve battery life much. Amdahl's law basically says that the best improvement you can get in performance (battery life) is limited (to a large extent) by the component that takes the most time (uses the most power).
Now, if e-Ink or OLED displays (or another technology) can lower display power consumption, or if Intel is unable to lower power consumption on Atom further, ARM could have a field day in the netbook space. But that's not at all a sure thing.
What's more certain is that Atom isn't anywhere near competitive in the smartphone space, at least for now.
IM (very) HO:
A netbook with a x86 chip is a small netbook.
and
A netbook with a Arm is just a big pocketpc.
@magallanes 100% agreed
I find it interesting that anyone would try to predict 3years into the future of computing. Good luck with that one.
@sintricate
2010 now.
2011 will happens some stuff.
2012 end of the world.
2013 void.
Assuming there is Windows 7 for ARM... I am all for ARM, but it appls like seesmic proof that rich desktop application really handles stuff great.
three years from now netbooks will still have xp as a default option...watch
This reminds me of an XKCD strip.
http://xkcd.com/605/
the real x86 revolution will come with the Medfield platform not with Moorestown.
maybe this can happen performance wise but what about software wise.
"Doing a lot of things" with an MID will never stand a chance against "Playing real pc games or real pc apps" on an MID.
ARM is designed for low power consumption and low heat, while x86 is hacked for those qualities. ARM is naturally a better choice.
Who knows if AMD will continue to "sleep walk" but the VIA Nano 3000 is here and now. I'm surprised more companies havin't looked at it for the MID/Cell/Ntbook markets. The thing trumps the Atom pretty bad.