IDC: Symbian should keep dominating the market, Android to take second
By Chris Ziegler 
posted January 26th 2010 6:20AM
posted January 26th 2010 6:20AM
We have absolutely no idea what kind of voodoo, pseudoscience, and black magic goes into making an analyst-grade industry forecast, but considering that our local weather dude can barely tell us whether it'll be raining in a few hours -- much less a year or two from now -- you've got to take these sorts of things with a healthy dose of skepticism. That said, we're finding it pretty notable here that IDC's latest worldwide smartphone shipment forecast through 2013 has Symbian continuing to dominate the field of ever-stronger competitors thanks "primarily to the strength of Nokia in markets outside of the United States," while Android will surge past Windows Mobile, BlackBerry, and iPhone to become number two in the world on shipments of some 68 million devices. Falling back a bit in IDC's Utopian vision are generic Linux devices along with webOS, which -- while "growing steadily" -- will be held back by a wee number of carrier partnerships. Everything that IDC's saying seems plausible enough, and we've got every reason to believe that Android's going to continue to heat up -- particularly with four of the top five mobile players (Nokia notably excluded) devoting significant portions of their smartphone lineups to the platform over the coming months. As for Symbian, it's an absolute juggernaut by any measure, so we can see it staying king for a while even in a complete vacuum of serious innovation -- it'll just be interesting whether to see Nokia and the Foundation can keep these hungry upstarts firmly in their rear-view mirror for much of the decade.
Symbian will be the dominant OS for mobile phones for at least the next decade if not longer IMHO. Nokia is so strong in the emerging markets which is where all the growth is.
I am more interested in Western countries and the smartphone war. Here I think Nokia will struggle against the one two punch of Android and iPhone.
@taligent
Just wait till Symbian 3 on March , it will be in a whole different level compared to the current S60 v5.
@Nokia N900 .. there are already phones that are on a whole new level to S60. Why should I wait for Symbian when I can get phones that have a popular app community (iPhone, Android), a unique interface (Pre) or kickass hardware (WM6.5 for HTC HD2, Droid).
@taligent Well yes considering that before Symbian have most of all been about Europe and that has been enough for Nokia to get 60% market share in smartphones, but now Symbian Foundation OS is meant to be Nokias new mid end and it's most of all gathering chinese and in coming years i would think indian market too market.
It's all about the new Symbian Foundation OS(most of all Symbian^3 and Symbian^4) if they get those right they will be in very strong position. Symbian^4 will have the same app base that Maemo 6 got as they both are using full Qt platform.
@taligent
Symbian is a great operating system, at least on non touch phones. While even on touch phones like the 5800 and N97 it's powerful, its implementation is flawed. Symbian^x should fix these problems, and I'm pretty excited to see how they improve it.
@Chris7197 we'll see what apple's giving us in the next iPhone tomorrow, i doubt they'll go open source but till I've seen what they have to offer, i won't be committing my choice of OS for a phone this summer :)
@Chris7197 Exactly. It has become obvious how much you can do with Symbian when OSX, webos, Android and Maemo came along.
The thing is that not everything is that intuitive and fun to do with Symbian, but many old Symbian users who came to check Maemo or Android have noticed that while it's more fun it just can't yet do it all.
This is exactly what i think Symbian fans are eagerly waiting to change in Symbian Foundations Symbian^3 and Symbian^4.
@Pdexter
I'm waiting to see how this shapes up too. Most important in this seems to be how Qt will be utilized and whether or not it will end up being truly cross platform - which it's not yet. If/when that happens it should be a big deal for Symbian/Maemo and I'll be interested to see what (if any) effect this has on KDE/desktop Linux and how much cross pollination goes on there. I'm not going to hold my breath that this is going to be revolutionary - there's been too many times when Nokia/open source business has had the opportunity for this type of breakthrough and hasn't made it. But they're clearly invested and they're huge. IF they can get this right it will be a big deal.
@Pdexter I totally agree. I spend a lot of my employer's time and money browsing this and other site looking at the latest smartphones, and there are some beauties out there. Each has its merits, and it's pretty tempting to make a switch.
The thing is, my current phone has 3G, WiFi, a 5MP camera with flash, GPS with Nokia Maps and Google Maps, a decent native browser and full flash with Skyfire, e-buddy for instant messaging, 30fps video, a 3.5mm headphone/tv out jack, FM radio, a reasonably good music player, RealPlayer and a DivX player for video as well as being an excellent phone.
I like having a physical keypad, so a fully touchscreen phone isn't that important to me. I don't follow anyone on Twitter, and I only visit FB once or twice a week, so while the contact integration is an excellent feature, it's not enough for me to fork out the cash. All told, I'm still waiting for a phone that will be irresistible enough for me to dump my trusty N95.
@Pdexter Absolutely true. S60/Symbian is a fine OS in terms of capabilties. The only shortcoming is implementation and execution at the user interface level -- too complicated and too inconsistent. Case in point: My 5800XM offers timed profiles, which means it can switch from silence mode to normal/ringing mode after a certain time -- this is useful if you regularly forget to switch profiles yourself. HOWEVER, to set up and activate the timer, I have to do way way too many steps. IMO, this illustrates the main important weakness of the current flavor of this OS.
@Pdexter People always repeat this stuff about Nokia's market share, without checking to see if its even true. Let's look:
http://fortunebrainstormtech.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/screen-shot-2010-01-21-at-9-05-47-am.png?w=594&h=355
In Q4 of 2009 in Western Europe Nokia had 10% of the smartphone market in Europe, while Apple had 78% and Android had 10%. Nokia doesn't have 60% of the smartphone market in Europe, or anywhere else developed anymore. And if they don't get their act together soon, at the rate they're falling, they'll be selling only cheap handsets in the developing world pretty soon.
I don't see why not.
Nokia has one of the largest R&D departments in the world, and aside from v5, S60 has always been a pretty damn rugged OS, in terms of raw usability and power.
I think if Nokia concentrate on countries and markets where their phones are actually appreciated (i.e Everywhere but the US), they'll keep afloat just fine.
As for Android, they've hit what might be called the sweet spot: a combination of robust, user-friendly OS, and MASSIVE range of hardware and worldwide carriers. It's not hard to see them overtaking Apple (with only one hardware config), Palm (with only 2 - four if you count the Plus models) and WinMo (large range of HW, but in terms of mindshare, the OS bombs).
@CJ
I don't think Android is going to be any kind of the break-out hit like everyone wants to think it will be. They have had models out for over a year now, have multiple models out and on multiple carriers plus Google direct and yet they have sold what? maybe 5 million handsets combined so far in the first year.
I'm a Verizon customer and use a WM6 Samsung Omnia and was going to get the Droid when it came out. One of my relatives got one and after playing with it a few times and with his opinion weighing in, I have decided to skip it and stick with my phone (and I hate WM6 btw and have to use the WAD 2 ui just to be happy with my phone) unitl something better comes out. Maybe a Pre + or a future Android phone that does it right or maybe even a iPhone v4 if it ever reaches Verizon.
@dennisheadley That is just terribly stupid rationale. How long has Android only been available on the smallest of the major carriers in the US (T-Mobile). T-Mobile is less than 1/3 the size of either Verizon or AT&T. The second carrier Android was available on almost 10 months later was the second smallest carrier in the US, less than half the size of AT&T and Verizon. Only recently has it been available on Verizon (The largest Carrier) and it's still a month or two away from being available on the 2nd largest.
Verizon ( Available for ~3 months
AT&T ( Not yet available)
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-
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Sprint (Available for ~ 4 months)
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T-Mobile (Available for ~ 15 months)
@dennisheadley I disagree. I have a Droid and am amazed at what it can do (and the best is yet to come....2.1 and 10.1 flash). Android is going to be a force to be reckoned with (already is actually).
Oh yes, also, I'd like to make a Heartfelt plea to all the commenters: Don't turn this post into yet another OS war.
@CJ
Agreed. But I think you can pretty much rule that one out. This article is just asking for an OS flame war...
"you've got to take these sorts of things with a healthy dose of skepticism"
wow, those words. Coming from engadget. Just wow.
@fighterfelix lol yeah. hard as i tried, i couldn't help but roll my eyes
@brrip
analyst-grade industry forecast : take with healthy dose of skepticism
tablet rumor #4589349 : take with excitement and joy
Symbian will kick ass in the coming months, when Symbian^3 gets released. Awesome!
Symbian will kick ass in the coming months, when Symbian^3 gets released. Awesome! And after that S^4. Oh the joy.
@Paullll .. Symbian better kick ass because in the coming months: Android 3.0, iPhone 4.0, Windows Mobile 7.0, Pre 2.0. Exciting times.
@taligent
True, exciting times. Oh the joy for us!
Now back to the cave->
All the analysts agree that Microsoft's Windows Mobile is failing. The current Windows Mobile OS will soon be replaced by a new platform, the so-called Zune phone. However it will also fail, just as Microsoft's previous Zune phones failed to sell. The analysts have obviously factored that into their calculation..
All of this doesn't give you much confidence to buy a Windows Mobile phone.
@IT expert
"just as Microsoft's previous Zune phones failed to sell"
Really?!? My God!!!! They failed to sell a product that doesn't exist?!?! This is unpossible!!!!!!!
@IT expert
Lol zune phone?
U must have pulled that out of your anus, pal.
I think that Nokia will remain in front in the coming years. Many people that just want a good camera, a good capabilities media, and a simple interface sees in the Nokia Phones the better choice. And there are a lot of people in this market...
What you need to remember is that Symbian comes on $30 phones. What matters to me is the high-end market, and that's where we'll see the best advances in features and general OS progress.
S60 is a POS, and I've had it on the E71, the N95, the E63, 6120 Classic, N73, and a couple of others I've forgotten, and I've never enjoyed using it on any of them. I was overjoyed the day I bought my iPhone, and I've never looked back.
Nokia can have the crap mass low-end market, but it doesn't bring them the profits they seek, and they'll struggle as phone manufacturers shift from S60 to Android in the low to medium end, not to mention the high-end...
@Cats
Everything you said points to you not having a clue about that which you discuss.
@Cats
Are different markts... The low-end is a big market, and not everyone is willing to spent much money for a phone.
@Tes everything you said adds nothing to the discussion. I've used S60 extensively, and found it lacking in numerous areas. The current market shows there is no profit gained from the low-end market, despite Nokia dominating this area for the past 10 years with Symbian. The high-end market has been dominated by the iPhone over the Nokia flagship phones (e.g. the N-series, the e-series) since its release, despite your best wishes. I fail to see how I don't have a clue, but you posting must make it so!
Let me know when you've got something to add to the discussion.
@FrankLucas you're right, but as Nokia has found, there's very little profit to be made in this sector, and the current shift by many big-name manufacturers to use Android as their mainstay platform suggests that Nokia will face a bit of competition here.
@Cats but i agree with your opinion. Nokia has a tough job ahead in order to fight with Apple, Rim, WM...The great Achilles foot of Nokia is to give the same experience in all their phones.
Why all the stigma surrounding the low end market? Nokia serves this market segment well and in return, the brand loyalty when those markets mature.
It's not like we are heading to a one brand telecommunications industry, where all phones are brand X. And the world aint one big high-end US market either.
Be happy that we have a lot of choices.
@Cats I just find it funny how first everybody complains how expensive Nokia smartphones are in here and next day they are all low end.
Last year E71(430 euros), 5800(320euros) and N97(500-700 euros) where the most sold symbian phones.
N95 was with it's 22 million sold 800 euros for the first 1/2 year.
All that said you are partly right and it will all be decided with Symbian Foundation how will Symbian will keep going. It will be only mid end 200-400 euros price while in Nokia's portfolio Maemo will take the high end place.
@Cats
So you've bought 6 phones in 2 years, 5 Nokias and iphone in 2009? I smell a rat.... all those Nokia phones you have mentioned have come out to market in a 2 year period.
Somebody trying to boost they credibility by making incredible claims....
@Cats
Well first, the Nokia N95 outsold the iPhone during their parallel existence. So you're wrong there.
Then there's the dubious claim of having owned several Nokia phones that are pretty recent, yet extolling the virtues of the iPhone having apparently JUST bought it. IT basically smells like bullshit. That and you've conveniently missed out WHAT the Nokia phones you're talking about are actually missing...mostly because you'd be told how wrong you are but there you go...it's what you get for bullshit claims.
@Cats
I too have to say, I think you're underestimating the power of the low-end market. A friend of mine was eligible for an upgrade with Sprint just recently. He's coming from a Palm Treo. I suggested the Palm Pre to him because of the nice low price. He instead opted for an older Blackberry model because it was only about $20 from Walmart.
There are a lot of people like that, who just don't have the funds to shell out $150+ on a phone. I know us tech geeks hate to admit it but to most of the world that's all they are. Just phones. Today, most people only care that it can call, text, take pictures and play their music. A browser isn't even a necessity, really.
@newone N73: 2006. E63: 2008. E71: 2008. N95: 2007. 6120: 2007.
I bought the N97 myself, I upgraded to the N95 on a new plan. The e63 was a work phone, then the slider on my N95 died twice (replaced once, bought 6120 while I waited for warranty). I then bought an iPhone 3G 16GB when they were released in Australia, and it fell out of my pocket playing basketball, so while my telco took 30 days to replace it, I was given an E71 in the interim. Throw in a few others, and there's a lifestory. Any more questions, or are you busy smelling rats?
@sfox8 Oh, but they have many hundreds of dollars to spend on a data plan. :) This is why I never have an issue dropping good dough on the hardware... I take a second to consider the TCO.
Symbian is ok, it just needs a new UI because what it has now is just an evolution of the first S60 phone (Nokia 7650) from 2002.
But it still gets the job done
"Falling back a bit in IDC's Utopian vision are generic Linux devices along with webOS, which -- while "growing steadily" -- will be held back by a wee number of carrier partnerships."
Exactly what I said. As I do maintain, I have the cash ready, as soon as a North American 3G unlocked Palm Pre Plus shows up, the cash is Palm's. Just stop the carrier exclusivity already.
i don't get why so many people rave on about symbian
i've owned 2 symbian phones (e70 & e71) for about half a year and fiddled around with an n95 quite a bit and i can't believe what a mess the ui is
i can never find anything i'm looking for - alarm clock being categorized under "office" is a particularly ridiculous example i can still remember
@mrqs
Agreed. Menu is not user friendly.
Thats why i just put a shortcut on the active standby screen
@mrqs
You know you can move the icons and menu items and pretty much organise it in any way you see fit?
@mrqs - You could bring Alarm clock or any other piece of application you regularly use to the main menu or even add a shortcut directly on the Home screen. Problem solved!
Engadget still trying to sink Symbian/Nokia at all costs...
You can have your opinion about Symbian but dismissing every report by whatever analyst, while giving all the credit (and sheering) for analysis that suggest Apple/Android domination, is kinda too much.
Dunno if this is more a personal opinion about Americans trying not to acknowledge the existence of other countries, and their purchase power combined, or more a non-sense hate of whatever that is built/maintained by Nokia(foreign company).
Just time will tell...
@Mr w00t symbian sunk itself by becoming stale AGES ago
@doutorpiranha I think you are confusing Symbian, the operating system, and S60 5th, the UI that runs on top of the OS.
If you are talking about the UI, yes it stalled a long time ago and it looks dreadful. Much needed changes are coming this year.
But if you are talking about the OS you are,oh, so very wrong.
Take a look at this:
http://developer.symbian.org/wiki/index.php/Symbian%5E3
http://developer.symbian.org/wiki/index.php/Symbian%5E4
Maybe you will stop repeating what Engadget tells you and see for yourself that Symbian it is FAR from a stalled platform.