IDC: Symbian should keep dominating the market, Android to take second
By Chris Ziegler 
posted January 26th 2010 6:20AM
posted January 26th 2010 6:20AM
We have absolutely no idea what kind of voodoo, pseudoscience, and black magic goes into making an analyst-grade industry forecast, but considering that our local weather dude can barely tell us whether it'll be raining in a few hours -- much less a year or two from now -- you've got to take these sorts of things with a healthy dose of skepticism. That said, we're finding it pretty notable here that IDC's latest worldwide smartphone shipment forecast through 2013 has Symbian continuing to dominate the field of ever-stronger competitors thanks "primarily to the strength of Nokia in markets outside of the United States," while Android will surge past Windows Mobile, BlackBerry, and iPhone to become number two in the world on shipments of some 68 million devices. Falling back a bit in IDC's Utopian vision are generic Linux devices along with webOS, which -- while "growing steadily" -- will be held back by a wee number of carrier partnerships. Everything that IDC's saying seems plausible enough, and we've got every reason to believe that Android's going to continue to heat up -- particularly with four of the top five mobile players (Nokia notably excluded) devoting significant portions of their smartphone lineups to the platform over the coming months. As for Symbian, it's an absolute juggernaut by any measure, so we can see it staying king for a while even in a complete vacuum of serious innovation -- it'll just be interesting whether to see Nokia and the Foundation can keep these hungry upstarts firmly in their rear-view mirror for much of the decade.
A few facts to mull over (figures are @):
USA 4.5% world's population
Europe 10%
Africa 14%
Asia 60%
I think it's fairly evident why Nokia are focusing on the markets they do. China alone accounts for 20% of the world's population, and given their writing system is logographic, maybe then you can also appreciate some of the technology decisions have made to suit that market (e.g. resistive screens).
@KojakWeb
Do you realize how many individual countries are in Europe, Africa, and Asia? You must realize you just compared the population of one single country (USA) to the populations of entire continents.
Even if you made an objective comparison of population and compared countries to countries (or continents to continents) it would be meaningless in this context. Your entire point is moot without factoring in things like GDP and per capita income.
@good grief
I think that you've missed the point about my "unfair" comparison. If anything you've reinforced the point I tried to highlight, and that it is moot for a US technology website to dismiss the purchasing habits of the rest of the world because it doesn't fit in with the purchasing habits of the US.
@KojakWeb So Nokia is going to survive producing and designing phones in a high cost European country with a high standard of living selling cheap phones to developing markets? Or you think all those developing countries are going to switch to high cost smartphones any time soon? And once Nokia loses the high cost smartphone market to Android and Apple et al they won't have any trouble competing with LG and others that have lower costs for design and manufacturing, lower standards of living for their employees, etc? You want to bet on that for the next decade?
@Fanfoot The IDC report covers the period 2009-2013, so no-one is talking about what's going to happen in 10 years time. But your inference assumes that Nokia aren't going to innovate at all (either hardware or software), or if they decide to move their manufacturing base. That's a rather courageous assumption!
Again, my original posting was a criticism of this website's blinkered opinion and dismissal of the buying habits of the rest of the world because it doesn't fit in with the US way of doing things. BTW I'm not a Nokia fanboy (I couldn't get rid of my Nokia N95 quick enough) and currently enjoying the HTC Hero. It's just that although I hate Nokia devices, I'm not arrogant enough to presume that the rest of the world most also share my opinion.
The problem is, unlike the US, Nokia and Symbian are immensely popular in the rest of the world, Especially China, South Asia, Eastern Europe and the Gulf. (You can figure the impact by the fact that most people in these regions don't carry chargers while traveling, since they know somebody at the other end will certainly have a Nokia)
Also, just get outside US centric mobile sites and check for cracked Symbian Apps (best way to figure it out :D ) There are an amazing number of them. You wouldn't make a cracking group for a small market, would you? Not worth the effort.
So when a analyst says that either Nokia or Symbian will continue to rule the roost, I don't need to take with "healthy dose of skepticism", I just ask "In other news, Sky is blue, Sun rises in the east; You having a slow news day?"
As long as Nokia doesn't go batshit insane and introduce stuff like "Sidetalking" :D
@Ryzvonusef
Hands off from Sidetalking. It was revolutionary! N-Gage had (and I do believe still have) his fanatic fans all around the globe.
@azgaroth
lol, like this friend of mine, he even bought the special N-GAGE pouch, and when attended a call it looked like he'd grown a large black cauliflower out of his ear.
But it had some nice games, I must admit. Pity QD never got the attention it deserved.
@Ryzvonusef
if only there was n ngage pouch shaped like a taco....
I hope maemo gets better. N900 FTW
and i think Symbian is the best OS for a non touch screen cellphone. It has multi task, tonnes of apps and is highly customizable
I think the analysts are forgetting the importance of hardware. Nokias are crap, and the "high end" is getting lower and lower priced all the time. It won't be long before iPhones are within normal people's reach. Android is still too young and shaky to be certain of anything. But the iPhone is proven, and growing faster than anything else. Plus, what can you run on Symbian? It's just a matter of what people know, and right now, most only know Symbian with no alternative.
@(Unverified) Nokia's hardware are crap?! What can you run on Symbian?!
So my guess here is that iPhone can run all of those jail broken apps that are around right?
First of all, build quality and durability of a Nokia phone is much higher than anything the competition has to offer. I know Nokia n95 that are still around and ever after getting a fair amount of abuse. Cant say the same about people who bought iPhones and just because they came out from the shower and picked up a phone call, ruined the warranty of the device.
And as posted before you need to check the amount of apps available for Symbian; It is just that Apple harnesses all the spotlight with the App store. I think you have not searched enough and you are talking silly now.
@(Unverified)
Seriously, Nokia's hardware is crap? Have you compared for example iPhone and N900, especially since N900 is there cheaper one at least here?
Nokia has the most solid hardware out there. Software we can argue about, but hardware....
@(Unverified) "Plus, what can you run on Symbian?"
how about quake 3 ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICzsTar2rFM&feature=player_embedded
@Mr w00t
Thank you Mr w00t. Was just to post exactly the same.
Nokia has by far the thoughest hardware out there. Maybe (Unverified) should google for some videos on the tests Nokia quality assurance does on those things.
@(Unverified)
nokia hardware is the best that you can find...20-0 to iphone hardware....
@(Unverified)
'higher end' can be lower in price, but NOT for Apple. Its common knowledge that Apple gets a larger profit margin per product, and that what Apple supporters take pride in and use to look down to competitor's higher sales or usage.
Symbian^3/Symbian^4 and an upgrade path for the n97 would really improve Nokia's standing in my mind. Release a new 4"+ screen phone with some powerful specs, nothing ridiculous, and get the thing out there for $399 with normal 3G GSM bands, I think it would sell well. Nokia is trying to make Android right now but with seemingly worse integration with the hardware, which is odd considering they basically make both platforms.
We must remember what carriers are now selling thier phones in China which will increase the sales of certain phones which increases profit, which distorts our view on these prospectives therefore before buying investigate very closely & remember where you are & what you need & what you want.
Has anybody else ever noticed that Analyst predictions almost always say that everything will be exactly the same in the future as it is now?
@Chefgon
Maybe becouse most things dont change in 2 years.
Even platform fights can take a decade if you look at history. VHS-Beta about 10 years, HD DVD 6 years.
OSX-Windows war has been going on over a decade, and still lingers on :)
I think this is an gross over-estimate of what Android will doin the US. What have they sold so far, maybe 5 million phones between all carriers and handsets combined? Really taking the world by storm. Looking ahead I don't think they will have an easy time of it given:
1. Nokia seems to be finally waking up and doing something to get their smartphones back on track and the better free navigation app won't hurt.
2. Apple's exclusive with AT&T in the US coming to an end at some point soon and more carriers will mean a lot more sales in the US.
The iPhone has reached it's level DESPITE being tied to AT&T.
3. Palms made great strides with the WebOS phones in the year they have been out and now with them branching out to more carriers and more phones they could be a break-out hit.
4. Microsoft may just pull their head out of their *** and make Windows Mobile 7 a good OS and/or a Zune based phone or something from HTC into something worth having. And they have their "pink" thing from danger in the wings also.
5. RIM could come out with a great new design that........ok so you got me there, RIM probably will lose their ranking at some point.
@dennisheadley Android took 27% of the North American market in Q4 2009. Apple took 54%. Symbian had 3% just behind the hated Windows Mobile.
Yeah, things change slowly in the mobile phone world. Nokia has decades to get their shit together...
Imagine if we could just pay our $50 a month for wireless access and buy whatever device we wanted, without being stuck with the carriers choices and plans?
@huh - um, Europe says "Hello!".
Buy any GSM phone without contract, choose whichever carrier & plan that fits you, pop SIM into phone, have fun...gotta love a standardized network architecture across the whole continent :)
@NewL - yeah, I know. Here in the colonies we're slowly moving to that point.
What's so damn unbelievable about that. Symbian phones seems to be popular everywhere except most of the US(A) has no idea what it is. From the phones I've had I have to say the best experience was on a symbian smartphone. It's snappy and none of this lagging crap I have with palm phones. There's not much selection of that here in the US.
I wonder whether IDC bothered to make their own PowerPoint for this announcement, or if it just stole the one that Gartner made months ago, saying the same thing?
Here is my analysis for the global market until 2012:
Overall unit sales will rise by 5 to 7% annually. So there is room for more than one winner.
In the high end area Apple will continue to be a strong contender with increasing unit sales, but market share will stay flat and actually decrease starting 2012. Android phones will continue to increase market share and volume. Nokia phones will hold market share and increase sales volume. RIM will lose share and have flat to decreasing volume. Win Mobile won't play in this market segment.
In the mid to to low end smart phone area it will be a fight between Android powered devices and Symbian / Nokia. Both platforms will increase sales volume considerably with Android increasing market share considerably and Symbian / Nokia making modest gains in market share.
The other platforms will have decreasing shipments and sharply decreasing market share. Web OS will be gone by 2011, WinMo will continue to be around but play a diminishing role for corporate users.
You can buy my full report for a lot of money, just send a check.
@sovatar
Not bad, probably better than IDC ;)
@Rev
When will your payment arrive? I need to buy a few new gadgets...
@sovatar
Could be pretty accurate, though I can't agree 100% with WebOS disappearing in just a year. If Palm plays their cards right (and stops with all this stupid carrier exclusivity crap), they could really make a dent. They need some better (and maybe even more) hardware though. Apple may be able to sell the same phone year after year after year but Palm doesn't have as strong of a hold on the market as Apple does right now.
@sovatar How about a more likely scenario... AT&T will lose iPhone exclusivity either this year or next (when LTE becomes available on Verizon say), and Apples share will almost immediately rise by 50%.
Android which has shot from nothing to 27% of North American smartphone sales in less than a year, will continue on a tear, and take second place, and begin to eat into Apple's lead in a couple of years. Still probably Apple will outsell them 2:1 at that point, but by then some of the rough edges will be off Android, and the diversity of handsets will start to take their toll on Apple's market share.
RIM will maintain a solid lead with a certain segment of business types for a couple of years, then collapse and vanish quickly.
Symbian will vanish from the smartphone space within a few years due to their intransigence, and creaky architecture. They will survive selling great numbers of cheap phones in developing markets, but their profitability will plunge, their stock will tank, and they'll be put on death watch as they start to compete at the low end with rising competition from China and other low cost producers.
Microsoft? Hard to say? If Windows Mobile 7 does something, it might have a chance. Probably not though.
Palm? Probably too late for them, probably gone within two years.
I think we're talking a two horse race folks.
If you're interested in knowing how they make analyst-grade industry forecasts, check out the secretly filmed footage at:
http://www.southparkstudios.com/clips/222638/
Amazing......
Open source said what Microsoft and Apple; Ubuntu, Android, Symbian; peer collaboration in world with 6.something billion will always be better than closed source development..... and not that the open source model is finally catching on, soon we should see open source desktop, notebook and smartphone/tablet oss and applications that have the same or better capacities as their closed source predecessors!