Switched On: Tabula rasa
By Ross Rubin 
posted January 30th 2010 5:15PM
posted January 30th 2010 5:15PM
Nonetheless, while the iPhone and iPod touch were nearly as close cousins as the 3G and non-3G flavors of the iPad, they were each rooted firmly in the existing categories of smartphones and MP3 players and positioned against products in that space. Despite its limited app support, nobody thinks of the Zune HD as a handheld tablet; it's a digital media player that competes against the iPod touch.
No such backdrop exists for the iPad, which will be Apple's most ambitious category-creation initiative since the days of Newton -- Apple's previous large slate device. The iPad, though, varies in its competitiveness versus alternatives. In its favor, its 9.7-inch screen should provide a strong personal entertainment experience for video -- it's a long overdue solid state successor to portable DVD players -- and games, where it's clearly differentiated from smaller-screened Nintendo and Sony devices. It also takes aim at Amazon's Kindle, offering color, backlighting and animation -- but at a higher price, non-free 3G access, and a book selection that won't necessarily appeal to more than those already interested in dedicated e-readers.
Third-party apps will play a much larger role in defining the iPad's identity -- and ultimately, its level of success -- than they have for the iPhone and iPod touch. |
As for the browser, its lack of Adobe Flash handicaps its ability to display many Web sites -- notably Hulu, which would greatly enhance its value as, say, an exercise bike fixture. Even Apple's well-rehearsed introduction demonstrations could not avoid the popular plug-in on the Web site of the New York Times. And most of the other bundled apps of the iPad are supersized versions of those that consumers have long enjoyed on Apple's handhelds. While it draws heavily from the iPhone's industrial design, user interface, and developer support, the iPad is a rolling stone, an unapologetic convergence device.
This is why third-party apps will play a much larger role in defining the iPad's identity -- and ultimately, its level of success -- than they have for the iPhone and iPod touch. The iPad represents the other shoe dropping, something we've been waiting for since Apple first introduced iWork for the Mac; the iPad versions are destined to become the MacWrite and MacPaint of Apple's new platform. Another great example was Brushes, the finger-painting app for the iPhone that now turns the iPad into a more credible creative canvas.
And creativity will be key if the iPad is to avoid becoming another in the long line of failed tweener devices. Apple may knock the usability of netbooks as vigorously as their manufacturers bemoan their profitability, but consumers have flocked to them as they are well-understood as small and cheap notebook PCs with all the compromises that entails.
Invoking the history of its event's host city, Apple portrayed the iPad as the next gold rush opportunity. But this time, instead of panning freely from the rushing waters of the iPod's legacy or the iPhone's subsidized ubiquity, developers will have to help Apple dig the riverbed.
Ross Rubin is executive director of industry analysis for consumer technology at market research and analysis firm The NPD Group. Views expressed in Switched On are his own.
@SteveJobsCEO Stop stealing Steve's identity. I am not fooled and I hope nobody else believes you are really Steve Jobs anyway. If you were really him, you could prove it by posting a photo of yourself holding up a handwritten sign with your username and "Engadget" on it. Same goes for the person pretending to be Jon Rubenstein, the person pretending to be Bill Gates, and all the other identity thieves around Engadget.
Great article. Thanks, Ross.
@BE77Y
I hope Apple don't buy Hulu.
@Glodokboy As a non-American I can't really comment, but if I had to I'd say I agree. Too much of that is going on nowadays. But a Hulu app would be nice.
@Glodokboy They can't buy hulu without buying entire broadcasting networks. Never. Going. To. Happen.
@Glodokboy Comcast already did. Also since it is a flash based site you would never see it happen.
@reader1 you keep saying Hulu will fail but never say why. why is Hulu going to fail. give me numbers or at least a little logic to back that up.
Hulu will eventually support HTML 5 video playback and Flash will be optional.
Just wanted to point out that Flash does not guarantee Hulu.
The PS3 has been blacklisted from Hulu by Hulu. It initially worked and then Hulu made sure that it ceased to work.
Hulu could very well do the same to a Flash based iPad.
Good article. I've gone on record as saying that I don't think the iPad - at least as it is - will succeed because it doesn't leverage an existing market like Apple's most successful products do - the iPod (the portable music player industry kicked off by Sony with the Walkman) and the iPhone (the smartphone industry kicked off by Nokia, Palm and others).
Tablet PCs or large format media players - which is what the iPad is - just don't have that market.
more info on Hulu and why they block access:
http://gizmodo.com/5315896/hulu-speaks-on-ps3-blocking-its-the-content-providers
@reader1 Whereas you, reader1, are already a failure.
@BE77Y
Love the sarcasm!
@sonicyoof
Wasn't being sarcastic!
@nicholiservia
Extraneous capitalisation, much?
@pax copia
HTML5? I don't think so, adobe just updated flash to support DRM'ed video, they will now all jump on it and cling to it like mad.
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic
-- A.C.Clarke
@BE77Y
GO APPLE!
@kojo87 i, otoh, have a reason why hulu will fail, and can also argue that @reader1 isnt bright enough to explain why.
the first, most obvious way that hulu will fail is that they arent attracting the advertising revenue needed to maintain the site in the long term. sure, viewers are nearly forced to sit thru the ads, but to control viewer backlash, the commercials are limited to a minute and a half and only one product per spot. not nearly enough revenue from the start. plus, unlike TV's ad pricing model being based on Nielsen estimates of viewership, hulu's ads track clicks, with very little being paid simply for "views" and most of the ad revenue saved for the actual number of clicks. what little ad revenue you think they get is even smaller.
so this forces hulu to have to adopt a subscription based model to insure its viability in the long-term. but who will actually pay a subscription for content that's freely watchable? seems unreasonably optimistic (if not just plain ignorant) to think people will pay for content that airs for free. yes, Apple sells episodic TV on itunes, but their sales numbers for that are pitifully small, and it's not because of the size of the installed base. you can argue that, but you'd be arguing against hard numbers/facts. the bottom line is people will sooner start buying/dusting off a Tivo before the majority of "time-shift" television viewers pay a subscription for free-to-air content.
another path to hulu's impending doom is by being purchased. a cable broadcaster/network could buy hulu, which is what hulu's owners *really* want. if one does, you will see the slow rollout of draconian controls over viewing that eventually kills the site. you'll witness the loss of choice as the broadcaster will lose rights to shows they dont pay syndication for. you'll watch them complain to the WSJ about "bleeding money" and their hulu division being a "loss leader".
why is this the cold, harsh reality? because advertising on the internet is an industry with standards that are still in flux. advertisers will pay millions for a 30-second slot on TV as long as it's backed by Nielsen estimates... but when it comes to internet viewership, there is not yet one standard aside from the "ad-click" model to sell time/space for ads. until that is settled upon, advertisers will pay less for internet advertising; so much less that large sites like hulu cannot afford to run for free. even if they filled up the commercial breaks with full length ads, the advertisers still wont pay for estimated views when they can get actual viewing numbers to steer their pricing negotiations. but even if they did, it would turn off viewership as it reduces the advantages to the viewer to a single benefit: time-shifting.
once it's all sorted, we'll all come to find that the only way to preserve our desire for time-shifted viewing and limited ads will come in the form of technology pioneered 10 years ago... the DVR will make it's comeback and remain a staple of the home entertainment center until bandwidth increases and "cloud-based" DVR's become the norm to overtake the physical Tivo.
@BE77Y Indeed, what I really want is to use this touch tech in say a tablet version of GarageBand, Logic. Ditch the mouse and even the trackpad of the new unibodies for direct touching.
I'll go even farther and say I want that touch tech on a MacBook (Air, Pro) being able to turn around the display and use it as tablet only or something similar.
@BE77Y Remember when we thought the iPod was going to flop? And the iPhone? The iPad is going to be huge! I'll see your Kindle and raise you with a more readable screen (in color) and a library to purchase your books and Steve Jobs gets Apple into the exploding e-book market for an affordable price for the device. There's something the iPad doesn't do that you wish it did? There will be an app for that. And more in the next version.... More details: http://bit.ly/ipad-details-under-examination
@leviteith
Remember when we thought the Apple TV and the Macbook Air would flop and they did?
@MarkAnderson
apple said apple tv was a hobby. MacBook air was a huge success for apple. Everyone still uses it as a benchmark. It is the defacto 'slim' notebook benchmark.
Clearly you're clueless. Lol.
@jaffreywali
Or I know what 'commercial success' actually means.
Clearly neither the AppleTV nor the MacBook Air have "flopped". They've had impressive sales that dominate other devices in their category. The Apple TV is held back by the fact that DVD ripping is illegal and it can't be merged with tv unless Apple integrates the set too. MacBook Air competes in the ultramobile laptop space the mainstream doesn't care much about. WE... KNEW... THIS. The iPad is leaping into a new category the poses a vacuum. I got a 13" laptop because I wanted to have something sturdy and useful to use. But... I can't carry it everywhere. In fact I'm typing this on my wife's iPhone. I wish I had something as easy to use as the iPhone... with a bigger screen... that let's me lounge in bed and tap around with my fingers. What? The iPad? Perfect. I never wanted an iPod connected to my tv... but the Apple Tv eventually made sense to me and I bought one. The iPad is a natural purchase that everyone gets on the conceptual level.
Wow. I still can't believe I'd spend this much time posting comments on blogs from my phone. The iPad will be the next great appliance innovation for the next decade. I predict in 3-5 years people will be saying the 2000's were the iPod decade and the 2010's will be the iPad decade. With the blistering amount of Bluetooth and 30pin accessories... things are going to become surreal as we realize how expandable this thing will be with software / app combos that scale down between iPad / iPod Touch / iPhone. It's already starting to heat up.
@CleverB
The Apple TV dominates cable TV and satellite services?
Really?
As for the Macbook Air, one word: netbooks.
@kojo87
I think the reason that it's going to fail is the exact opposite of tradition: it's just too popular!
When NBC, ABC and other broadcasting companies signed up for this they thought that it would be just another flop like what NBC did on their website. However, that's not the case, largely due to the fact that their 'smart' video viewer was clunky, inefficient, and had to use software that the user had to download to work.
That just seems inefficient, no?
So, to get back to point, it was the popularity amongst America (and recently the world) that is going to eventually bring it's downfall: the big broadcasters want to make more of a profit and Hulu's just not bringing that to the game. Unfortunate for the rest of us.
i cannot express my disdain for the iPad. we do not care anymore. apple blew it, we know it, and youre denying. lets all move on.
@NoOrdinaryMSFT Read the previous post.
@(Unverified) Second that idea. Let's filter out these trolls.
Omg this is soo nice no more hate and fanboys I wish it stays like this forever!
@NoOrdinaryMSFT Not only to I agree with your post, I also lol'd at your display pic :D
@NoOrdinaryMSFT ok then.....so.....how would you change the Nikon D300S?
Thoughts?
No?
So basically the only thing you really know anything about is trollin'?
Thought so.
@NoOrdinaryMSFT
My apologies, that was a bit harsh. I like Apple, they constantly revolutionize the industry, because when they do something great, everyone else follows and technology makes leaps and bounds. Look at the iPhone. Pre2007, cellphones were comparitively laughable. Apple blew the sector out of the water, and the rest of the industry really stepped it up to create some truly incredible devices. I suppose I'm just bitter, as I had such high hopes for the iPad as well. I wanted nothing more than to see Apple succeed with this, because when they succeed, even if no one buys the product, companies worldwide will make their own attempts to beat out the challenge. This is not a challenge. This is a disappointment.
@NoOrdinaryMSFT
How can you be Disappointed? The f**** product haven't evne SHIPPED yet! Yeah, sure it dosen't have a market! No one on the planet has been able to even BUY one yet!
You write your statements in Past as if the company already failed Big Time... strange!
@NoOrdinaryMSFT
Interesting. In 2007 I was already a hardeded smrtphone user having used the Nokia Communicatior and I believe I was on my 3rd gen windows mobile device. They all did more than what the iphone G1 offered.
Fast forward 3 years and just today, just about an hour ago. I walked into the ATT store in Tysons Corner, VA and traded in my HTC Tilt2 for an iPhone 3GS even paying $399 for the 16GB upgrade since the Tilt2 was only 2 months or so old....could not stand it. It was freezing all the time and SLOWWWW. In fact I had reverted back to my ATT Tilt over the last week. I actually went back from Windows 6.5 to 6.1 for performance and usability. The best I can describe using the iphone 3GS is liberating....I don't believe I'll miss multi tasking or flash at all. In fact on ALL my PCs I use Firefox just to block flash!
Point is that Apple will first create the platform and then build upon it and slowly dominate it. The ipad will do to the netbook market what the iphone did to the smartphone market. Not sure any CE product can replicate the success of the ipod. That was a freak success IMO. But I can see the ipad being the best selling mid to upper priced netbook product int he coming years. Of course it will dominate the tablet market.
Advantage Apple. Zune Tablet will arrive in 2015 and will be loved by the techies and fail....that's my prediction :)
@NoOrdinaryMSFT
I'm interested in seeing what the iPad becomes - I too remember what the cell industry looked like before the iPhone - and I remember people having very similar reactions to the iPhone that they're currently having to the iPad - calling it a failure, focusing on what it gets wrong, instead of what it gets right - and look what happened.
Apple, in general, focuses on a smaller subset of functionality, but they work hard towards making that experience fantastic - and over time, they expand the functionality.
We techies have a hard time with that, because we want feature x and y and we can't imagine something being successful without it. But when it comes to the iPad, as I think more and more about it, the more I think it's going to be a huge hit (in time - give it another year or so to really take off) once people start to see what you *can* do with it, instead of focusing on what you *can't* do with it.
@marook Are you saying it's illogical to be have some emotional reaction to a product, after finding out it's specs?
Picture someone finding out a package to be delivered to them has been damaged in the mail - you don't have it yet, but you're disappointed.
@jaffreywali : I agree with much of what you say but perhaps not for the reasons you expect. You have crystallized everything that is wrong with the connected gadget market. We are going backwards technologically, heading back to the failed "walled garden" era that allowed Google to take over the world. If developers are forced to create completely different versions of their apps for Flash, different implementations of Java, HTML5 or whatever, it will ensure one thing - the complete dominance of Google in the mobile space as well. In the end, an open platform with a powerful backer will always win, because it allows the true innovators - the small guys who are still hungry - to break in and disrupt the paradigm. If Apple, Microsoft and the rest of the old guard keep playing these games, two years from now we'll be reading about Android overtaking the iPhone in app sales. I can also see Android or Chrome OS becoming the hottest things to ever hit the tablet world (perhaps both via emulation).
@reader1
Reader1, I suppose if Apple made an iTampon instead of an iPad, you'd think it would be the most innovative tampon ever created as well.
Are they still trying to convince us this product isn't full of fail?
People wanted a slate ->computer
@Ducman69
*sigh*
At the conclusion of this article, it should have read *Cue the haters*. How very tiring.
@Ducman69
Dear moron:
http://www.engadget.com/exclude/apple/
HAHA! keep up the good work!
@(Unverified)
An apple a day keeps the *ahem*
An apple [post] sixteen times a day keeps the readers away.
@(Unverified) You gotta love how many different forms computers come in these days. We've got:
-Desktop
-Nettop
-All-in-one PC
-Laptop
-Netbook
-Smartbook
-Tablet PC
-UMPC
-MID
-Smartphone
That's a lot of different forms to choose from.
@(Unverified)
Yeah but they are basically looking to do the same set of things like unlike the iPad which really is lost some where. If you think the iPad really is useful, check out this link: http://www.bukisa.com/articles/236306_why-the-apple-ipad-will-eventually-fail
@mnhthebest
I just looked at that list, and it was fairly dumb.
If this guy thinks a Netbook works like the iPad, he's not really keeping up, is he? The Netbook idea is beginning to look rather fiddly, now. They always WERE rather difficult to use - and having more than one window open on them is hardly a feature to be proud of.
As for the eBook... look, a one-trick pony has to be REALLY good at that particular trick, but it isn't. Many books have colour content, not to mention comics, mags and so on.
Still hate the name,
@Johnny Ive
I keep reading it as iPod....aargh!