Entelligence: Will Android fragmentation destroy the platform?
By Michael Gartenberg 
posted March 5th 2010 8:30PM
posted March 5th 2010 8:30PM
Entelligence is a column by technology strategist and author Michael Gartenberg, a man whose desire for a delicious cup of coffee and a quality New York bagel is dwarfed only by his passion for tech. In these articles, he'll explore where our industry is and where it's going -- on both micro and macro levels -- with the unique wit and insight only he can provide.
When Android was announced, I wrote that if "Google can deliver, the impact could be huge," but I caveated a major issue: Google would need to prevent the market from fragmenting and allow it to succeed where other mobile and desktop Linux implementations had failed. Linux fragmentation remains one of the many reasons the open-source OS has failed to capture a meaningful share of the PC desktop market, and Android is rapidly following a similar path by fragmenting into different versions with different core feature sets, different users experiences and run different applications.
It's not even clear what's part of the official Android distribution and what's been layered on by manufacturers to differentiate their phones. For example, the Droid runs a mostly stock version of Android 2.0 and partially supports Exchange Active Sync, a critical feature for business users. The Nexus One runs a stock version of Android 2.1, and has far more limited Exchange support with no ability to sync calendars. Other
I recently tried to install one of the few good Android games and found it won't work on Nexus One as it has a nonstandard screen resolution. |
I know that last weekend at least one Android enthusiast site reported that Google has promised to get 2.1 on every Android device. Well, that's all well and good and smiles and rainbows, but an unverified blog post from some Android enthusiasts isn't exactly canon to me. Are there hardware issues that will prevent 2.1 running on older devices? Screen resolutions? I recently tried to install one of the few good Android games and found it won't work on Nexus One as it has a nonstandard screen resolution. This isn't just about older devices either -- many new devices were announced at Mobile World Congress running either Android 1.5 or 1.6. When does it end? Either Google addresses the fragmentation issue immediately or it will find that Android suffers the same fate as Linux on the desktop.
Michael Gartenberg is a partner at Altimeter Group. His weblog can be found at gartenblog.net. Contact him at gartenberg AT gmail DOT com. Views expressed here are his own.
@Jonyjonjon
So you would rather have a less advanced but more unified platform. thats the beauty of android - it progresses at such a fast rate and updates constantly. i suppose the best solution would be massive updates every half year or so...
I think it's simply because Google doesn't have a good schedule for releasing updates, and only does so on a whim. To be honest, Google needs to restrict itself to two major updates per year and only bug fixes for other releases and not have any of this "2.1" crap that only runs on it's own phones. Because if the myTouch 3G and Google G1 were really running stock Android, it shouldn't be THAT hard to update them to later versions of the firmware (certainly the myTouch).
When you affix 2 updates per year, it should be easier to prepare carriers for updates to their phones to avoid the silly problem of only being able to run the latest version of the software is to buy a new phone. We're falling back into the pre-iPhone era way of things where you on'y get new features with new phones. =/
Fragmentation killed linux.
Oh wait, no it didn't.
You can use Custom ROMs to get other versions on Android on your device.
2.1 is already out for the Eris and 2.1 will be out soon for the Droid.
Most 2.1 features are added in custom roms.
Granted, it does void your warranty, but you always "can get it back." ;)
Apple have, and will always have the most unified and consistent user experience, total control over hardware and software development guarantees this fact.
The game is already tied up, the numbers speak for themselves.
@leykis101 If that's a revolution, it's the first top-down revolution I've ever heard of. Revolution comes from the masses, not from a millionaire turtleneck wearing CEO.
Android, destroyed?
Dude, shut up.
Are the older versions of the Amdroid OS not upgradable? If so that, in my opinion, would kill any chance of me getting an Android device. With upgrades come bug fixes and new features. That's why I like what apple does w/ their software. It's only one version and it's on all the 3 different devices.
@EagleyeSmith
You can update all Android phones to the latest version just depends on whether you want to do it yourself or wait an age for your carrier!
@Leeknows ...then, in that case, I honestly don't understand the point of the article. If the carriers are updating the phones then what does it matter if I have an older version of the OS when I buy my phone?
To my understanding the article made it seem like if I bought a phone running Android 1.5 I'm screwed in tryin' to get 2.1 because it may be offered to only select phones. Or if I did get the new version of the Android OS, some feature's wouldn't work for my specific phone.
My friend purchased his G1 at launch and recently purchased an sub'd t-mobile N1. He uses the G1 during the weekdays and the N1 when going out to clubs and such. (his mentality is the N1 looks better and is more durable) Being the owner of two android phones he actually favors the G1 despite the slower hardware and older OS.
I'm not sure if there is a moral to that story... but Andriod seems to be doing well.
@BillOwnz Why the hell would he use 2 different phones?
@justinclark Because he enjoys android and had the upgrade available.
Wouldn't you mind a choice in phones? I sure wouldn't.
Is it me, or are posts supporting and opposing Android both highly rated here?
while yes having different version (1.5, 1.6, 2.0, 2.1) do hurt the brand having different version like android on a microwave, does not. apple does it why not android, or is android not big enough yet....
Funny how you guys turn tail real quick. you all loved you a droid phone when it came out, then just a few months later, you are writing articles that say the droid sucks. Well which is it.. man you guys suck..
Im sick of you people. You all want to hop on the hottest tech and hype it up then downgrade it a month later. You are one of the main sites that people look to as the source for helping make a decision as to what they should buy. But then you go back on that and talk crap a month later, and that makes you guys worthless.
Your site is a joke, and your articles are worthless.
Stuff just got real.
@christexaport Hard to see what the point of wasting your time writing a long response to a waste of time original post.
Android will do fine. I just saw an adroid phone free yesterday with a contract. Lots of consumers will take that option even if they think the iPhone is better.
The main issue with fragmentation is going to be for developers. I doubt android will ever catch up with the iPhone when it comes to apps, but not all consumers care about apps since most consumers haven't used enough apps to care and major apps like facebook will be ported to each device.
Apple will remain the premium vendor with Android filling the role of people who want a good enough solution. Apple will continue to dominate when it comes to net profit as android manufacturers undercut each other on price.
Fragmentation should slow down as android catches up to the iPhone. Remember, android was originally based on windows mobile and switched to catch up with the iPhone in the last year and a half.
Lastly, you can't blame developers for app incompatibility. All problems are google's in the end. If they choose not to regulate The marketplace to make sure apps are up to code, then they are to blame. Regular consumers will blame the easiest person to target.
@Dchu220 said "Remember, android was originally based on windows mobile and switched to catch up with the iPhone in the last year and a half."
Excuse me, but Android NEVER was based on windows mobile.
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia:
"Android is a mobile operating system that uses a modified version of the Linux kernel.[4][5][6] It was initially developed by Android Inc., a firm later purchased by Google, and lately by the Open Handset Alliance.[7] It allows developers to write managed code in the Java language, controlling the device via Google-developed Java libraries.[8]"
@Beatnik
The original android interface was copied from windows mobile. I'm not arguing over the kernel.
The biggest problem for backwards compatibility is that manufacturers have to invest their time and resources to update a model which may not be generating much revenue for them anymore. The cellphone business has traditionally been all about releasing models as fast as possible to one up your competition. I don't think their mindset is going to change. Unfortunately, they are continuing to dig their own graves with lower margins and dependency on high volumes for profit. Deadly combination.
The biggest problem for backwards compatibility is that manufacturers have to invest their time and resources to update a model which may not be generating much revenue for them anymore. The cellphone business has traditionally been all about releasing models as fast as possible to one up your competition. I don't think their mindset is going to change. Unfortunately, they are continuing to dig their own graves with lower margins and dependency on high volumes for profit. Deadly combination.
long as its a unix/linux derivative..and they maintain it that way .. will still hold together... the geniouses can stitch them together..
it is only the hardware that it support.... example if your mobile was not built for touch or not support wcdma.... obviuosly you cant upgrade.. how ever we are now on the time were mobile tech and hardware are almost the same... ex camera, multi touch......web capable, etc...... the best example is in nexus you can use the htc desire UI or OS hadware will not be a hassle...
Fragmentation is a pretty serious subject with OS's. The story really does make some good points, but it also misses a few of the really important issues that Google is facing. Google doesn't have a long history of putting out mobile OS's. People compare Android to WM, when Windows Mobile goes back to the mid 90's with Windows CE. They have left WinMo stagnant for almost 10 years (since WinMo 2000) before making the rapid advancement to WinPhone 7... Google is simply moving Android at a faster pace forward - since it's open and hardware is changing so quickly now - and leaving 1 year old hardware behind.
WinMo originally came on 130mhz processors and 16MB of RAM. That was 10 years ago... 2009 - really the first year Android 'was marketed' we were looking at 528mzh processors as 'old tech' and 256MB of RAM as the 'standard' in mobiles . In 2010, 1Ghz processors and 512MB of RAM will be the normal with 800x600 screens.
Technology is outdating the OS's faster than the OS's can be updated - that's the reason for the issues. Soon, the Iphone (probably Gen 4) will have a higher contrast AMOLED screen that's running a higher resolution and the 'fragmentation' will begin there. Until now, there hasn't been another player to challenge, but when WinPhone 7 steps up to bat, Apple will have to respond with something bigger.
I think we'll see a serious push for the Nexus One to be the 'standard' going forward in Android hardware. We'll probably see Samsung, HTC, Motorola and a few others bring a standardized hardware profile to the 'Google Phone' just like Microsoft is asking for WinPhone 7.
The difference is Android will continue to be free and something they can alter, WinPhone from the rumors will be locked down for a bit until they get the inital push out.
Just my 2 cents!
It's a joke that cell phones suck so much compared to PCs. With a PC, you can put a disk in, reboot, and get a clean install of whatever version of whatever OS you want and it will just work. Why are we in the stone age with our phones even though they're as powerful as PCs from just ~10 years ago?!
I'm sure Google is colluding with the handset and network providers to prevent this from being easy. Too bad. They're not any worse than other phone OS providers, but they're not any better either. How many more years will we have to wait until some sense gets knocked into these companies? Until then I guess I will keep using my original iPhone, which is running the latest and greatest from Apple (albeit sans MMS and A2DP).
@mot
Seriously? Try running Win98 on a new PC... There's no drivers for the hardware, no 3D graphics card support, no way to put a floppy disk in my laptop even! Remember boot disks? Now it's a separate partition of the hard drive that restores your settings. Otherwise, you have to use the stock disk that came with your PC to get a 'clean' install.
Same thing is easy to do with any phone. Reformatting and installing a 'new OS' is what is called 'Rooting' your droid or flashing your WinMo device. Sure, you can do it, but the hardware isn't guaranteed to work right...
@zcarman93
Really? The point you want to make is that a 12 year old OS won't support all the latest and greatest features of your current PC? Uh, duh? We're on a forum talking about how Android handsets aren't supported by new OS versions that are released only weeks later.
If you put Windows 7 on a 5-year-old PC, the install process is pretty easy and it will almost certainly support all your old hardware perfectly. If you put the latest version of Android on a phone you bought a few months ago, the install process is horrible and it is likely to not work with things like the camera, GPS, or even placing calls. There's a world of difference here.
All you people painting Gartenberg as hostile to the Android are not paying attention. He's afraid this is going to happen. He did not say it has, or it will, just that it might, and that it would not be good.
But no, you have to close your eyes and ears and run your mouths without benefit of an ounce of thought put into the resulting words.
Give me a break. This is so lame, people are so fearful that their chosen platform is going to fail that they will not allow anyone to actually suggest it's possible. Shoot, the iPhone failing is still possible, though not likely like it is for the Pre and for Win7 Mobile whatever long name it has...
You can all rearrange the deck chairs as the Titanic is sinking, playing "Nearer my Droid to thee" or you can understand what is going on. You can't do both.
Probably no more than the umpteen flavors of windows fragmented and "destroyed" Microsoft.
Oh thats right, it didn't happen.
As an Android developer with a single app out there, I do have problems making my app compatible with all phones. The problem is not really with versioning but with hardware. My app deals with reading hardware values to estimate battery levels and every piece of hardware exposes the levels differently.
I think that this could easily be resolved by Google enforcing some kind of certification test on all hardware vendors to make sure they all behave the same.
Additionally, as a free app developer I don't have the funds to buy every Android unit under the sun, and most manufacturers (Motorola especially) don't have any kind of loaner program for Android phones.
As for dealing with different screen resolutions etc, this is purely up to the developer.
Every article this guy writes pisses me off. Google shouldn't have to apologize for updating their operating system. Every phone that does not say "with google" on it is out of google's reach. You should understand that the people at google are not idiots. I'm sure that they have taken a very systematic approach to creating their operating system. Just because they haven't said anything yet doesn't mean they are not doing anything. Also as devices get older, they generally can't handle the new shit and updates. if you have a problem with that then you are a fricken idiot. On top of that, google has to deal with all the manufacturers to make their OS work on all the phones. This is no small task. Sorry if it's taking them a while to update their FREEEEEE OS.
Engadget, please refrain from posting Michael Gartenberg's articles as they are straight r-tarded, dog.
Growing pains are inevitable, but I think fragmentation makes it stronger. Apple fanboys will likely disagree, but I HATE static tailored experiences.
this is stupid. honestly, its not much different than the iphone situation as there are 3 different flavors of the iphone (2g, 3g, 3gs)... yes you can get the latest 3.1.3 OSX firmware for all 3 iphones but you dont get all the features in the 2g and 3g versions (ie a2dp, compass, mms, tethering). its not much different than not being able to upgrade to the latest OS which has newer features.
Android:
"Theres an app for that!.... but only if your screen resolution is 320x600, and is running Android 2.0. Oh, and you will need more space on your phone to download most apps but thankfully you can use your SD card that you bought.. Scratch that, you cant actually. You cant have this app."
:)
The author's an idiot.
Hardware diversity is a good thing. It's what's provided the stimulation for development in the PC market since the 1970s.
What needs to happen is that the intersection of cell service provider and hardware manufacturer needs to clean up their act with respect to releasing quality and stable devices.
That is all. Company, dismissed!