Study finds commercial-skipping DVRs don't affect purchases, 'TiVo effect' may not exist
By Sean Hollister 
posted May 6th 2010 9:19PM
posted May 6th 2010 9:19PM
Moreover, every attempt the researchers made to find a "TiVo effect" failed -- comparing those who had DVRs with those who didn't, they found no significant difference in the amount TV watchers spent on nine different goods (including cleaning and grooming products) advertised. This could be for a variety of reasons -- perhaps advertising doesn't work, period, or perhaps those without DVRs "skipped" commercials simply by walking out of the room -- but no matter the reason, it seems these days television advertisers don't have quite so much to fear.
Update: To address one of the comments below, the 1,200+ TiVos measured in the study were given out to participants free of charge, which researchers admitted might skew the results. However, comparing usage patterns of the participants to TiVo's own national usage statistics, Duke scholars actually found them similar.
Great news! Now they can take commercials out of the ABC app.
@lakersin2025 Umm, since TiVos are on all the time, wouldn't most of that 95% be them sitting unused on live tv? And does this take into account people fast-forwarding or only the people that used the skip button?
@lakersin2025 This news story is BULLSHIT. There is no way that any of this is true. I can make stats say anything too. Who under wrote the research?
@engadgetcomexcludeengadget I would assume they had a way of testing that the device was actually being used, like checking for button presses or channel changes.
@arsshaw I agree. These studies are all bull. I would say 95% of the TV I watch on my DVR is NOT live. Another note in my case: I fast forward through commercials, but if I see an ad that gets my attention, I actually watch it. Although those tend to be ads for smartphones or movies.
@arsshaw
One of TiVo's competitors probably.
I found the ultimate ad skipper though, kickS TiVo's ass. It's called not having a tv. A genius invention really and really quite affordable.
commercials are snack preparation time and bathroom breaks.
why would you skip them!?
@BrianH
Nope, that's what the pause button is for..
@cardfan You have to realize that there is a fair amount of people without Live TV and/or DVR. Hence, rush to do those this during commercial breaks.
@BrianH Who are these people? Now that I have a DVR I only watch sports live. Give a show 20-25 minutes and you can skip the commercials.
@crichton007
I still like watching non-live events live or slightly buffered.
It's hard to ignore 20 years of training myself to pee/get food during the commercials, especially during good commercials. Also, most of the time I forget I'm watching a recorded/buffered show and will watch two commercials before fast forwarding past the rest.
Why even have a DVR if you're going to watch live TV? (Exceptions being sports, news, and maybe award shows.)
@tomhayes
In other news, 95% of people given a free Tivo have no effing clue how to actually use it.
What they really need to do is enable all cable boxes with the OPTION to feed data to Nielsen so the apparent mouth-breathers who decide which shows stay on the air will stop getting all the good shows canceled, while they mash their flippers together for turds like Real Housewives and Dancing with the Stars. I would gladly let Nielsen know exactly what I watch if it keeps great shows from going under.
I don't know, maybe I put too much faith in the taste of the American populace, but I think that the Nielsen data does not accurately represent younger viewers who are more into watching stuff off Hulu, BT, and DVR.
@bodar agreed. the reason CBS currently has the best ratings of any network right now IMO is because old people mainly watch CBS, and old people (in general) don't know what a tivo is and don't know how to watch stuff on the interwebs. i'd send bits of info at the beginning/end of show if it means more unique, hilarious shows like Better Off Ted stay on the air. BOT still isn't as good as Arrested Development, but it's the only show that's made me laugh almost as hard. screw you, ABC.
@ravissimo
Augh, don't get me started on Better Off Ted. Just awesome. Biggest loss since Pushin Daisies.
@bodar That was my impression as well. 95% of the stuff I watch on my Tivo is either recorded or buffered. I do leave it at commercial sometimes, but only because I went to the bathroom and was too lazy to pause :)
It's because people typically channel surf nowadays or use the internets while watching television. They don't sit on one channel.
I can't imagine that the people who skip commercials would spend less on cleaning and grooming products... do people only clean and bathe themselves because the television says to?
@pohatu771
LOL I know.
@pohatu771 lmao
@pohatu771
I love the way you think. Funny as hell. But on a serious note, that's exactly what I do.
What they should have asked is if either even payEd attention to the commercials.
In other words, an alternate interpretation of data; tv ads have no effect on shopping behavior and are, in fact, a huge waste of money for advertisers.
The study is already outdated. I'd like to see a survey over the last year, when more and more people started watching shows online and DVRs spread even more. At least I know I watch the majority of my shows that way.
@coitis1 Online videos are kinda irrelevant to a study about shopping behaviors of DVR users.
Oh thank god, because for a second there I was gonna start worrying about those corporations and how they were gonna continue to make their stock projections, quarterly earnings estimates and increased market shares. But, all is well, we're still spending without having to have the commercials reminded us to do so.
i'm just waiting for a DVR that will skip commercials for you
@Stevenk it's called media center. Ask Ben drawbaugh about it.
LOL people still pay for cable!
GREAT STUDY!
Why am I just learning there's a button to skip commercials? I've been fast forwarding this whole time!
@kjones555 Same!!! ever since i read that i've been scanning the buttons on my DirecTV remote! anyone know where it is????
@Stevenk Not sure if you were joking or not, but just in case, the DirecTV button looks like a "chapter skip" or "next" button. All it does it move forward 30 seconds, so you can press it, say, six times in a row and you'll move forward 3 minutes.
I actually prefer to use the fast forward at 3x. It's fast enough for skipping commercials but slow enough to see where to jump back into the show.
I for one watch new commercials once and skip them or go get a beer /snack every other time*.
*Im not fat -.-. I'm actually 6' 140 lbs. Damn u high metabolism and excercise!
What about the ppl not recording but pausing, then skipping. That's what I do. Technicaly it wasn't in record mode.
I call complete BS on this study. Only 6.5% took the opportunity to skip a commercial when they had a chance. Really? I never watch live television and find that none of my friends, colleagues or other acquaintances do either. And who the hell does not FF the commercial when they can. Like we all spend the actual 2 hours watching American Idol when the whole show is actually 20 minutes.
@krypton Maybe some of us just don't care enough to skip past commercials. I certainly don't. I've never felt the compulsive need some people have to be an "efficient" TV watcher. If I'm watching TV, its really because I need a break.
@Luxury Guy
I don't disagree with you. Some of us just don't care enough or need to have a job or have other responsibilities. Some of us don't have the need to me an "efficient" viewer. Some of us actually love to watch the highly entertaining PROGRESSIVE INS and "Apply directly HEAD ON" commercials. While others, well, they are different with their constant need to not waste time.
@krypton to each his own, man. no need to be a sarcastic dick about it.
perhaps tv ads just dont work...
@elistuy = It's not that TV ads don't work. They just cancel each other out. Of course those that don't watch commercials buy the same amount of laundry detergent, etc. as people that do. Maybe it's because both groups do the same amount of laundry? Yah think? This is the little secret that Madison Ave. wants to hide. Once they get everyone on board buying ads, the net benefit to any individual company is zero. "Run like crazy and and pay us to stay in one place".
Does this study account for the fact that the DVR is "always" on live TV even when the user isn't watching? If all they did was pull data, of course most of the time it's on live tv and not skipping past commercials.
@MokeUSA
I skimmed the report and still don't know how they determined whether someone was actually watching or not. They knew how many hours a person watched TV on average, so I suppose they just asked the viewers when the TV was actually on.
@MokeUSA You hit the nail on the head. There is no way for your Tivo box to know if the TV is on or off so if you skip through 20 min of commercials (average for a 1 hour show) vs. 360 min of commercials in a 24 hour period the result is 5.5%.
@tvguy761: "There is no way for your Tivo box to know if the TV is on or off"
No, but TiVo knows _itself_. If nobody's actively pressing buttons for a while, the study determines there is no actual TV viewing during that period.
Check out the actual study at http://faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/~mela/bio/papers/Bronnenberg_Dube_Mela_2009.pdf — they covered all bases. The study used TiVo log files (which detail DVR operation down to every remote-control keypress.) and analyzed activity levels to determine viewing. TiVo knows when it's actively being used, vs. the other 20-ish hours of the day when it's on (and possibly recording), but not being used.
Regarding the naïve-user argument (a.k.a. "drooling noobs given free DVRs, not knowing how to use them"), it's true that study participants only watched recordings 11%-15% of the time, but average TiVo users only watch recordings 25% of the time. I know, as a seasoned and rabid TiVo user, I shake my head in disbelief, but TiVo owners watch 75% of their TV live. We may not like it, but it's true.
TiVos run 24/7. You never turn them off, just your TV. So how do they know when you're 'watching a live program' or your TV is off an the TiVo is just doing its thing?
There is no way people are paying the premium for a TiVo and not using its features 95% of the time.
@pvthudson
RTFA, these people didn't buy their Tivos.
If you count all homes with DVRs, I wouldn't be surprised if most people watch them live if they have the DVRs from their cable company... like my parents do. Some people just don't get it. I think the people who go out of their way to get a Tivo are more likely to watch recorded stuff.
How would they test this? Do they have shopping data for Tivo users? A control group?
This a bunch of bull,,, of course we skip.... HELLO!!. :)
I record or buffer nearly everything I watch just to skip the commercials or things in the program I don't want to watch. It's the only way to watch TV, IMO.