Counterpoint: fragmentation won't destroy Android after all

The common belief -- and a belief we've generally shared here at Engadget -- is that Google's breakneck pace of development and lackadaisical stance toward heavily-customized versions of Android is slowly undermining the platform from the inside out. Handset manufacturers simply aren't used to the concept of two or more major revisions of an operating system in the span of 12 months, and it's got the potential to wreak havoc; there's probably no better example of this than HTC's Sense, where many of the world's Hero owners continue to plod along on Android 1.5 to this very day. Ultimately, this means that different Android users have access to different subsets of features and applications -- and looking at the big picture, it could mean that potential buyers are going to be subject to more paralysis at the sales counter than they'd be knowing that they've got a more futureproof device in their hands. Theoretically, anyway.

Thing is, even as Android becomes more fragmented, it's also becoming more of a consumer product. Gone are the days when the ultra-geeky G1 was your only ticket to ride; now you've got dozens of choices, including high-end, heavily-marketed phones on American carriers like the Droid Incredible, Backflip, myTouch 3G Slide, and EVO 4G. What that means is that carriers and manufacturers are both successfully turning the conversation away from the platform, the technology, and the politics of Android -- subjects that your average phone buyer couldn't possibly care less about -- and turning it toward things that actually sell devices in volume: sex appeal, speed, and easy access to services like Facebook and Twitter.

This phenomenon was demonstrated for us this week on the Engadget Mobile podcast, where our special guest (and podcast producer) Trent Wolbe -- a guy who isn't the unabashed phone nerd that I am -- told us on no uncertain terms that the lack of Froyo on the EVO 4G at launch is a complete non-issue for him. It makes sense: if a phone does everything you need it to do, and it does those things extraordinarily well, who really cares? Well, as technology writers, it's easy for us to care (in fact, it's our job to care) and to get swept up in the notion that having the latest and greatest is absolutely critical to our enjoyment of a product, but in reality, your average EVO 4G buyer might not even know what Android 2.2 is, much less understand why he or she should want it.

We're not advocating that HTC and others slack off on keeping up with Google, of course -- or that Google shouldn't consider slowing down a smidge as Android's core matures -- but there's definitely an argument to be made that we're all going to enjoy the cream of this year's Android crop, Froyo / Gingerbread or otherwise.

[Eugene Rushmore Posted May 29th 2010 7:38PM]

@Brucealeg thoughtful statement... makes sense to me. but ultimately everyone buys the phone they want. however, i too like the idea of owning something that will be relevant and current for a year (at a minimum). aside from the 'fragmentation' argument... throw the interface issue into play... Android vanilla? or Android w/ HTC Sense UI? too many discrepancies can ultimately lead to too many floating issues

[Incorrigible Posted May 27th 2010 9:43PM]

I have a question.. if you are really worried about being able to upgrade.. shouldn't you get a default android device like the N1?

Hopefully HTC will keep putting devices like this one out..

[ecdysiast Posted May 27th 2010 10:12PM]

The guy for whom 2.2 was a non-issue on the EVO just hasn't tried 2.2. Going from 1.6 on a MyTouch 3G to 2.1 on an N1 was a nice, but not overwhelming experience, which left me feeling that 1.6 was just fine.

But the upgrade to 2.2 is significant because of its speed, particularly its browser's speed. It's a real, perceptible, important difference that makes the phone much more pleasant to use. The rest of the stuff, even multi-touch, isn't nearly so important. Plain ol' speed.

[Geo Posted May 27th 2010 10:13PM]

I definitely see Andriod becoming the major/majority mobile phone OS due to it's zero cost. If probably won't be as unified as iPhone OS, but iPhone is only a small fraction of the mobile phone - some people prefer OS X, but Windows still have majority of the market and it's not even free.

This could mean iPhone will hold it's premium place for a long time to come however, for those who want THE PHONE, best 3rd party app support, tons of accessories etc. Most people don't need or care about those though.

[Geo Posted May 27th 2010 10:18PM]

I definitely see Andriod becoming the major/majority mobile phone OS due to it's zero cost. If probably won't be as unified as iPhone OS, but iPhone is only a small fraction of the mobile phone - some people prefer OS X, but Windows still have majority of the market and it's not even free.

This could mean iPhone will hold it's premium place for a long time to come however, for those who want THE PHONE, best 3rd party app support, tons of accessories etc. Most people don't need or care about those though.

[themacbuddha Posted May 29th 2010 5:33PM]

My tech leanings obvious, given my handle, but I think there is another way of looking at Android fragmentation albeit through the view of the iPhone's success.

Think in terms of who best handles the relationship with consumers; the carrier, the hardware manufacturers, or the software vendors. It goes without saying that the carriers have screwed that pooch for far too many years. Why do you think Verizon rebuffed Apple in the first place.

So what is Google doing? Handing over software they will barely support themselves to hardware vendors that are still under the thumb of the carriers. And who does that leave to handling the relationship to consumers, the wireless carriers. It matters very little how hard Google pushes the development and features of Android, they just want to be friends with benefits and don't seem interested in the commitment to the end user.

Everyone is in it for the money and some times that means the end user doesn't get everything they want. It just seems Google is going to have a harder time of it. Android handsets will outsell iPhone handsets, Androids installed base will grow past that of the iPhone, and it will not mean nearly as much as anyone thinks. Apple will still be pushing harder and moving faster because Androids Achilles Heel is that it has replaced Microsoft as the dominate platform for computing. Look what that got us. Too bad Linux didn't arrive 20 years ago.

So many think so little of the Mac, iPod, iTunes, iPhone, and iPad but its difficult to argue with one company making so many people so happy with their choice in gadget. And isn't that what it is all about.

[Eugene Rushmore Posted May 29th 2010 7:32PM]

Chris... i love Android... and 'fragmentation' won't kill it...
but it sure doesn't help in terms of uniformity and branding...
i'm not on the iPhone bandwagon... but these issues don't
plague Apple... nor the likes of PALM (Pre & Pixi)... right?
this is all IMHO of course... but as the article states about
the guy that says... if the phone does what you want it to,
then who really cares? absolutely simple & absolutely true