Sony predicts digital content will overtake print 'within five years'
By Donald Melanson 
posted June 3rd 2010 2:33PM
posted June 3rd 2010 2:33PM
We can't say if there's an actual rule or not, but we're pretty sure that anyone in the e-reader business has to, at one point, make a prediction about when e-books will overtake actual books, and it looks like Sony has now come through with a big one of its own. That comes courtesy of Sony's Steve Haber, the man responsible for the company's digital reading business division, who says that: "within five years there will be more digital content sold than physical content." Note that he says "digital content," not books, so we can presume that also includes magazines and newspapers, but it's still a fairly ambitious statement nonetheless. What's more, Habar also insists that there is a place for standalone e-readers alongside multi-function devices like the iPad, saying that, "it's just like digital imaging, where you can take pictures with a cellphone - and many people take pictures with cellphones - but if they want the best possible picture they'll use a point-and-shoot camera or a digital SLR."
Sony likes the 'five year' disruptive technology timeframe. When they announced the first Mavica still video camers (we now call them digital cameras), they claimed 'in five years, there will be no more film cameras'. It really took about 25 years, but digital capture didn't mearly overtake film, it overwhelmed it to the point of film becoming a boutique item.
But really this is the wrong question to be asking: the question shouldn't be 'is five years too short a timeframe', but rather 'Has digital content already overtaken print?' If you look at the daily reading habits of Americans, people don't read physical newspapers anymore (yes, some do, but not nearly the numbers as 10 years ago). Content is found, mostly for free, online. If you are talking about periodicals, you will find the same to be the case. Is the e-reader the medium of choice - hardly. Will it be? Maybe?
If you are talking about books as content, then physical media is still the overwhelming norm.
So I think we should be asking: What is content, where are consumers finding and using the content, and how can they best receive content in the future?
And 5 years after that, they'll start getting attention to formatting on par with their cheapest paperback brethren. Hopefully before then, the software in mainstream readers will become less primitive as well.
Right now, ebooks look like rubbish produced in FrontPage (and of course converted in Calibre). I have a hard time paying for a book when the quality is so low.
I certainly hope it doesn't take 5 years for publishers to get cracking on decent digital books and for companies like Amazon and Sony to put competent text rendering in their devices. Even iBooks botched it. A few smaller brands seem to be starting on the right track...I just hope the big boys actually put some real work into their products. As it stands, the readers from Sony and Amazon and most others are quite awful at displaying text, despite it being the ONLY task they're meant to handle.
Their so right, after all we all know that video killed the radio star.
I'm right there with him. I am a huge reader. Used to take great joy in my thousand or so books. Having them all on the shelf made me look smart, maybe. But I wish I were a mouth-breathing illiterate every time I have to move. I have owned two E Ink readers now and I'm not looking back. I still love reading just as much, but I'm finding paper books to be an archaic curio now. I'd only buy a paper book to have that signed 1st edition on the shelf. But something I'd just get the paperback of? Never again.
Also, consider what he actually said. Yes, he's from the department that does the Reader, but he said digital content over physical content. He didn't say ebooks. So, factor in the other things that Sony does. Music, movies, TV, book sales, video games. MP3s vs CDS, downloadable movies (rent or own) vs DVDs, ebooks vs print books, downloadable games vs games on discs. I think more digital content than content tied to a physical medium in five years is being conservative.
True True
Yeah sony.. and you know what else? if you release shitty readers like you do now.. you'll be out to :(
This can only happen if people stop printing everything they see online!
Books have been around for thousands of years. eBooks? About four decades. eBook readers are constantly evolving, changing, and breaking. Who knows if the eBook reader three years from now will support all your current eBooks, and if you break your reader without a backup you lose everything. More "digital content" can be sold over print, but if I'm looking for a book, I'm getting a real one.
Paper will start to die when an average, cheap e-reader can beam a B/W copy of a Word doc (or other formatted text) to another e-reader, probably using wifi or bluetooth and there is a similarly quick transfer process to get the document from a regular (desktop?) computer to an e-reader. Until then, people will keep printing out their Word docs so that their friend/coworker/teacher can have a copy. Sharing is key and e-mail doesn't work yet because not everyone has a tablet/laptop.
Sony will not be able to compete with EBooks, here a short story:
They released their ereaders, but after a while they closed down their online shop in japan. Imagine what: i went to various stores to try to find the sony eReader here in Japan, they don' t know it exists!
So, in Japan there is no content. Z-E-R-O! Now, with the iPad, some sites like Rakuten are selling some Magazines, but I couldn't find any books yet.
For the past year I have been here in Japan, I've never seen anyone with an eReader on subways or trains. They have paper books, Japanese really love them!
I like sony products... but their reader is dead...
Moreover, i prefer to stick with my Kindle for readability and low eye strain (for fiction books) and my iPad for browsing speed and tables (for technical books) to protect my investment...
The problem here is compatibility. If digital content providers can agree on a standard for compatibility, then yes I can see digital content overtaking print.
I thought it already had...
I predict it wont happen on their devices.
Says the Company that gave the world Beta video recorders....
Maybe than they will upgrade their horrible firmware on the Sony PRS 600. Such fine build and such c%@p software.
Maybe I'm just old-fashioned, but I personally prefer reading an actual paper book, to reading it on a laptop or tablet or reader. I've been reading since I was about 6 years old, and it's just natural to me to hold a book and flip the pages and have a light on behind me. Maybe I'm just in the minority...