ABI Research predicts Blu-ray players in 18% of TV owning households next year

After successfully predicting shocking trends like Blu-ray player prices heading downwards and the PS3's continued install base lead on other players, analysts at ABI Research see 62.5 million Blu-ray players shipping next year. Analyst Mike Inouye sees this as a part of the growth potential of TV-centric devices related to price declines, plus new technology arriving like larger displays, internet access and 3D. With market penetration (in TV owning households) expected to rise from 7% in 2009 to 18% next year, we're wondering what's holding the format back from even more growth. Prices are relatively low now, full featured players are easy to find, and HDTVs are rapidly taking over. Is that other 82% happy with upscaled DVDs, movies on cable or on demand, internet downloading/streaming, or are we just being impatient?

[kumar Posted Jul 21st 2010 5:33PM]

Probably all of the about except the last choice (being impatient).

Additionally, consumers have to deal with the onslaught of 3D tvs and br players (and the related content), making decisions so much clearer.

In the mean time, I just continue to Netflix my movies and watch them on my br player in my lappy or just stream them in. (hdmi out to the tv of course!)

[Joeyjoejoe Shabadoo Posted Jul 21st 2010 5:41PM]

"of of" hey?

I own 4 bluray players, I bet that screws up the numbers :p

That aside 3d bluray is only going to fragment it even more, and with HD video on demand unless you are an enthusiast it isn't looking so bright for blu.

[jedi Posted Jul 21st 2010 5:48PM]

@Joeyjoejoe Shabadoo

At this point, some BluRay players are cheap enough that they can be a stand in for a Roku and other similar boxes. They've gotten dirt cheap and now they are in the warehouse stores. Also, Walmart has pushed the disks below the $10 price point.

So a sudden jump in market penetration would not be very surprising.

[RichardLawler Posted Jul 21st 2010 6:04PM]

@Joeyjoejoe Shabadoo doh, fixed.

[Joeyjoejoe Shabadoo Posted Jul 22nd 2010 4:33AM]

@jedi

I only hope they do the same here (Australia), the bluray players have gotten cheap ($120 for a decent one) though the blurays them selves seem to be $8 more than DVD on release and dont really fall in price much. Most blurays range from $13-$38, with an average price of $24 per disk.

Its not horrific but when I see 'ferris beulers day off' bluray for $38 I wonder if they know where this is going.

Fortunatly for myself there is a lot of region free (paramount, universal, WB all RF) so bulk buying disk of amazon is the cheapest alternative by far.

People are starting to talk about getting blurays instead of DVDs but now with this 3d stuff its going to be even more of a choice. AFAIK (correct me if I am wrong) 3d blurays only work in 3d bluray players, they will play on a 2d TV (in 2d duh). This is good for ps3 owners without a 3d tv who want to future proof but those who have bought a bluray player that isn't a ps3 are already screwed.

Rant aside, I do love bluray; great picture and sound (for those who have spent the money to hear it) is essential for any home theater. I do hope to see overtake dvd in the next 3 years, but based off current pricing and 3d fragmentation it is shooting itself in the foot a bit.

[Bozster Posted Jul 22nd 2010 3:27AM]

So in the end.. all the HD DVD hate and garbage how we need only one format for it to grow was ridiculous..

And when the momentum and interest was high, Blu-ray won which was quite a bit more expensive than HD DVD back then.

And it wasn't about higher storage either because now studios are packing 2 movies on a 25gb Blu-ray discs.. so that thing went down the drain as well...

I'm just curious where are those analysts and praisers and blog whores who claimed unbelievable surge for Blu-ray for a long time.

Don't get me wrong, I don't hate Blu-ray.. I have probably more Blu-ray players in my house than a few people combined and probably quite a lot of Blu-ray movies..

I just think we should go back in time and remember all the hate, the garbage that was spit out by Blu-ray supporters and Sony PR magicians out there in the wild.

[Joeyjoejoe Shabadoo Posted Jul 22nd 2010 4:38AM]

@Bozster

I liked the whole 'pornography will choose who will win' thing. Their basis being "it happened with betamax and VHS"....yeah back when THE INTERNET WASN'T AROUND.

But yeah Sony did like to push their format, I guess there was just so much money at stake.

Only thing that I really hate about bluray is it has regions, region free was my favorite thing about HD-DVD. Granted the best thing about bluray is (for me at least) they NEVER skip or refuse to play, whereas I have some HD-DVDs (with NO scratches played only once) that are jumping and refusing to load now :/

[Bozster Posted Jul 22nd 2010 8:12AM]

@Joeyjoejoe Shabadoo

I just find it funny how over time all those blog posts and Engadget posts as well about tracking how many Blu-rays are sold and how Blu-ray is taking on DVD have mysteriously disappeared.

I'd definitely love to hear what all those people on Engadget and AVSForum who were so vocal about supporting Sony and Blu-ray and claiming this and that have to say now..

And yes, I totally miss HD DVD being region free.. this meant that I could get some french and european movies without problems that will never be released on Blu-ray because of the expense and they were scheduled or released on HD DVD.

That's really the biggest thing I miss about it.