Dippin' in a Tesla is an expensive proposition, as we're sure you're well aware, but the
US Department of Energy seems certain the cost of electric vehicles -- or at least their all-important rechargeable batteries -- will come down to reasonable levels. The government estimates a stack of cells good for 100 miles will drop to $10,000 by the end of 2015, and that 40-mile batteries for PHEVs will sink to $4,000 in the same timeframe -- both
around one-third of what the containers presently cost. On the physical front, portly packages of Li-ion presently weigh 333kg (about 734 pounds) per 100 miles of range, but are expected to slim down to 222kg (489 pounds) by 2015, and shed weight precipitously in following years. Like any weather forecast, the figures are subject to the prevailing wind, but it's looking like average Americans may one day have use for all those
free charging stations. Find the full report at our source link.
posted July 22nd 2010 12:52PM
A product in demand is made better in the future by the market? Wow, what a surprise.
Are people really getting paid for this at the DoE?
@paul34 Not only that, they've chosen pretty round numbers for their cost reduction, meaning there was probably little validation around the numbers.
50% reduction in Year 1
40% reduction in Year 2
50% reduction in Year 3
33% reduction in Year 4
@Jf Whoops, didn't look at the scale. I thought it looked funny. They've just highlighted specific inflection points. I rescind my above comment.
@paul34
This data matches precisely my own prediction, so it's almost certainly correct. If only somebody was willing to pay me for it.
@paul34 It's made better by tax expenditures by you and me.
Sure, the battery pack may cost $4,000 in 2015, but if we keep printing money to spend on R&D in these so-called "green jobs" then who knows how much they'll cost when adjusted for inflation? I don't think the federal government needs to be "Transforming America's transportation sector", especially when they've already demonstrated they don't comprehend what they're doing when they make small changes. They want cars to get safer (read: heavier) AND get increased miles per gallon.
Bettery technology isn't there yet people... Use gas/diesel, let's use more of our own natural resources instead of importing them, and use small, targeted incentives to spur innovation in a more controlled fashion such as the current tax-writeoff system for EV purchases. Scrap the rest of the governments intervention in "green energy". It's easy to say "Sure, spend 200 Billion on pretending to make transportation more environmentally friendly" when your taxes aren't rising. Eventually your taxes will rise to pay for this crap, and you won't even remember what your money is paying for...Got an extra 10% of your income lying around doing nothing nowadays? Be prepared to make some cuts then...
I wish I could afford a TESLA!
I want that electric Mini Cooper that was being talked about not long ago. Would be great for driving to work but I'd be so paranoid about my battery dying
That's great and all, but none of this is going to happen if R&D isn't done to make all this happen.
... and it would be damn nice if some of that R&D happens right here in the US.
We should all be driving Electric Only Vehicles by now. If only our Government officials would stop taking bribes from big corporations and actually represent the majority of people who voted for them, not just the ones who paid to get them voted in.
And I forecast even heaper, lighter, longer-lasting EV batteries by 2025
I smell the vaporzzzzz
does the government not realize that COMPANIES are making these cars? and that they'll never sell them for $3000?
@clarkkers
Yes, they do.
They are predicting a decrease in cost of production/manufacture at essence.
Once the cost to manufacture is cheaper, competition drives the actual price to consumer right down too.
Cheaper the product, more units sold, so there's still reason too.
@clarkkers
If you read the article (or hell, even the title), you'll see they're referring to batteries, not EVs.
When has the federal government ever projected anything correct into the future much less 20 years out. Assuming they are correct, still overpriced and just proves that so called greener energy is not sustainable in the market place. It TOO EXPENSIVE. Spain has just done a study that showed for every green job their stupid government created at a cost of $1.6 million tax dollars per job, 2.2 regular jobs were destroyed - BRAVO. I'll stick to my petro thank you.
@rednano74
Do you have a link to that study?
@rednano74
But I don't care if oil and coal workers lose their jobs.
And I am buying a ~40 mile range battery pack (LiFePo4) for a electric car I am converting for $5600 (+ wires & stuff). I would hope that it would be $4,000 by 2015, since they have come down in price a lot in the last two years.
*And those batteries are going to be charged by renewable power.
only $10,000 to go 100 miles 5 years from now?? oh boy, can't wait!
@balwheeler
Yeah, but what if "petrol" stations had a swap-out service?
So you parked up, swapped battery for full one, drove off again.
They then recharge that battery and when done, another person parks up, swaps it in pays the bill and off they go.
@FORDY
I really don't see how this could work. We all know that batteries can vary greatly in capacity. Laptop batteries turn to crap in as little as a year. What guarantee do you have that you aren't giving the station a good battery and receiving a lemon in return. The battery is too expensive of a component for people to swap them out carefree with another of unknown quality.
@pple is poo
No offense, but lol.
"Meaning that you may not re-sell privately a battery pack, thus killing all battery pack theft."
Just like how the .gov mandates no drug sales, so that never happens, right? Or how it says that felons can't have guns, and that definitely never happens, eh?
Or that part about stealing cars - or possessing stolen property. And so we no longer have to live with car and car stereo theft!
wait...
"... packages of Li-ion presently weigh 333kg (about 734 pounds) per 100 miles of range, but are expected to slim down to 222kg (489 pounds) by 2015"
So let me get this straight: Li-ion, a nearly stagnant technology, is expected to dramatically increase in efficiency in just five short years?
@franktronic
It's already advanced a good amount ever since the market demand for thinner, longer lasting cell phones exploded.
And now that there's an increasing demand for EVs and "hybrids," yes, you will see more advancement in the area of EV batteries.
That's how the market works.
@franktronic
As an EV developer myself let me see if i can clear up a few obvious misconceptions that seem to stem from this horrific misuse of numbers.
Battery capacity, specifically lithium ion and all its derivatives (iron phosphate, cobalt etc) will likely NOT increase in production batteries. This is not to say that better batteries will not be developed (see lithium-air) but we will NOT see these in cars anytime soon. Similar to the way we are still using nicad and nimh (atrociously outdated chemistries) only the most popular will actually show up in the market (LiFePO4)
What WILL change, is that as production ramps up and is improved, batteries will have higher outputs (performance), longer lifespans (reliability), lower cost and maybe, maybe a little less weight.
Additionally, calling a battery pack a "40 mile" pack, or a "100 mile" pack just illustrates a basic misunderstanding of the translation between battery capacity and actual range. The range will depend *MUCH* more on the driver, the speed, and the implementation into an efficient vehicle than anything else. And yes it will vary, DRASTICALLY.
For instance, an EV going 40mph may have a 100 mile range whereas that same EV going 60mph might have a 50 mile range. Until we start classifying range in highway or city miles everyone is going to continue talking out their butts about these numbers.
@franktronic
A fuel tank system weighs around 40 lbs.
15 gallons of gasoline weighs about 94 lbs.
134lbs total for 450 miles of range at 30 mpg.
Batteries are not a very efficient form of energy storage.
@paul34 I think they are referring to when people steal catalytic converters or other parts off of cars and sell them to scrap yards or other used part places. So it would be illegal for the establishments to buy the parts, giving thieves less customers.
So I might be able to afford one in 2030? I'll be looking forward to it.
At first, that graph didn't make any sense until I read the article. I thought it was just a typical NiMH battery and wondered how does a battery cost more than a whole Prius.
That's still pretty expensive ... I would have thought that the Li-iin batteries would come down even lower than that by 2030 when practically everybody would be owning an electric vehicle. Perhaps they'll have invented a better battery by then.
As is usually the case, look to Nikola Tesla's mythical history and the solution already exists.
http://www.styrofoamsoup.com/conspiracy/the-original-tesla-motors/