Xbox Live to offer HD movie downloads?

There are wild rumors, and there are interesting rumors, but here's a doozy for ya: Xbox Live could soon start vending HD movie content, according to one freshly minted Wordpress blog (take that for what it's worth). According to Shsibae (huh?), over 1000+ hours of video will make its way onto Live for rental at about $4 a go, or for purchase (at an unstated price). Hard to imagine Xbox 360 doing for PC-free online movie downloads what all the other companies couldn't or haven't (we're looking at you TiVo, Netflix, iTV, etc.), but then again Microsoft did start up with that Xbox Live music video download thing last year. Seriously though, what a coup would that be if Microsoft swooped in to make the Xbox 360 the premier digital content hub -- with or without HD DVD -- right underneath Sony's nose at the eve of their PlayStation 3 launch? We just hope Microsoft would have a larger drive waiting in the wings if this one turns up roses though, our 20GB is already packed to the gills with game demos.

[cjzero @ Nov 2nd 2006 11:33PM]

I ran into the same issue, so I bought a memory unit and another hard drive. Live profile stays on the memory unit and I swap hard drives to play different demos or game saves.

[Jeff @ Nov 2nd 2006 11:40PM]

"1000+ hours of video" could mean a lot of things, and none of them are really world-beaters.

You've gotta figure that "1000+" means between 1,000 and 2,000 (otherwise it'd be "2000+") and probably under 1,500. That works out to somewhere around 500 films with no extras, assuming these are all feature movies, which they probably aren't. But even if they are, 500 films is nothing. Netflix carries 65,000 titles and they say more than 90% are rented on any given day - this is the reason for their success.

Now, let's assume instead that it's a mix of content - trailers, some feature films, some "behind-the-scenes" stuff on games, some user-created youtube-style videos, maybe some other game-related stuff. So then you're probably talking about something like 300 movies and then a bunch of other random stuff, whatever they could get the rights to. I think this is probably more likely. So then it's even less compelling if you're looking at it from the movie download perspective.

It sounds like it's probably a classic case of using the biggest number you can to talk about a relatively small amount of content. 1000+ hours of video is really not that much. It's not like you're going to be sitting there trying to watch all 1000+ hours sequentially. No, you're going to pick and choose, and maybe you only even want to watch 1 out of every 25 hours available. You're going to run out of stuff pretty quick at that rate.

You can argue that they can add stuff as they go along, but the same would be true of iTunes and Amazon Unbox and it hasn't worked real well for them so far. The problem is you know they all tried to get the rights to whatever they could right from the start. And whatever they couldn't get is not going to magically become available to them later. Copyright issues are the big bugaboo preventing downloadable movies right now, and if MS can only muster up 1000 hours of "video" (whatever that means), then it sounds like they're running up against the same problems as everybody else.

[emaredubyou @ Nov 2nd 2006 11:42PM]

i don't have a 360 but i thought that you hook up a usb hard drive to it? or am I making that up...

[Joshua @ Nov 2nd 2006 11:41PM]

give us all-you-can-eat movie rentals with a monthly fee. For example, pay a flat fee of $25 per month (maximum) and watch unlimited number of movies during the subscription period. Also, movies can be streamed with advanced cache algorithm so we won't have to buy additional storage. This would be a great deal for all HD enthusiast and can even go against netflix, blockbuster, etc.
MS and the movie industries, are you reading this? Think about the possibilities... 6 million+ install base... That's a lot of money.

[doG @ Nov 2nd 2006 11:48PM]

I'll predict that the zune marketplace will integrate with the xbox 360 within 6 months. They will have the HD/Portable movie downloads up early next year. Microsoft will release more film titles than amazon and apple combined.

[John G @ Nov 2nd 2006 11:52PM]

HD movies over my 4mb cable modem....no way in hell.

[Blah @ Nov 2nd 2006 11:53PM]

@Jeff - way to expand your arguement of '1000+ hours of viseo is not alot' into 4 paragraphs

The fact is that you have to start somewhere and if this rumour was true I can see XBL Diamond coming out shortly.

[JeffNlA @ Nov 3rd 2006 12:04AM]

If they can get certain shows in HD - I'd pay $4 each (Battlestar Galactica for one)

[oki @ Nov 3rd 2006 12:03AM]

how can u download hd movies on a 20gb harddrive? just a hd movie in xvid is 5gbs.. think about it being in microsofts hd wmv format its going to be 10gbs.. dont really think its realistic and think of the time it will take to download

[Rohit @ Nov 3rd 2006 12:40AM]

If this is true then it might explain the 100GB XBOX hard drive rumor. One thing is for sure and that is MS will jump into movie download business next year and this might be the big splash.
I would love subscription service for this.

[Ken F @ Nov 3rd 2006 1:01AM]

I wouldn't be surprised if Microsoft worked out some deal with Warner and/or Universal for an Xbox360-based high-definition download service.

Sony is creating a massive library of 1080i MPEG-2 encodes, but it's hard to see how a 30+Mbps encode of Click could have much application outside of Blu-ray in the next ten years. In contrast, Warner and Universal's latest VC-1 encodes for HD-DVD are running 12Mbps ABR for video (Batman Begins, a reference title, is just 12Mbps. MI-2 runs about the same). In other words, the latest 90-100 minute movies from Warner and Universal are running about nine gigabytes with 1080p VC-1 video and Dolby Digital Plus 5.1, excluding lossless audio, foreign language tracks, and extras.

Delivery of ~9Gb high-definition 1080p movies seems entirely feasible...with a larger hard drive. Microsoft demo'd a 100Gb add-on drive for the Xbox360 at Korean X06 last month, so that would have be a part of the offer.

Warner and Univeral both have high-quality quality content that is ready TODAY for such a high-definition download service. Because Sony has stuck with the older and far less efficient MPEG-2 format, its transfers for Blu-ray are ill-suited for a high-definition download service.

Such a download service would achieve several things. First, it would be service that Sony could not match any time soon, because they are still authoring their titles in MPEG-2. Second, it would present a compelling argument for other studios to use VC-1. Just think what Microsoft will tell studios -- "take advantage of VC-1's superior efficiency to master your titles for HD-DVD, and you can also offer those titles to 6+ million Xbox360 users."

[ATM94 @ Nov 3rd 2006 1:03AM]

Well since they just added the ability to play WMV stored on a USB device or your PC, you could probably just use your PC as storage for the movies. Not much different than Apple's rumored iTV. Why buy a bigger hard drive for the 360 when we already have tons of hard disk space on our PCs and can add it cheaply?

[Ken F @ Nov 3rd 2006 1:08AM]

"HD movies over my 4mb cable modem....no way in hell."

Batman Begins -- which is one of the highest-quality movies available on either format -- uses VC-1 1080p video at an average bit rate of just 12Mbps. Add in a Dolby Digital 5.1 track, and you can still download it at roughly 1/3 real time speed.

[Tyler Arnold @ Nov 3rd 2006 1:16AM]

I could definetly see the guys over at Microsoft doing this... Especially when they partitioned out the video section to now include movies. I wouldnt buy any but it would be a nice option...

[_man1c_ @ Nov 3rd 2006 1:33AM]

I can def. see this happening more than it not happening. the 360 is starting to take shape as being that hub for all your entertainment needs MS wants it to be. i expect more features added on later on in the life of the 360..

[Bad Moon Rising @ Nov 3rd 2006 2:22AM]

Nahh...it's bollocks. Let's just use the 10 MB per title, you don't want to forget the credits and pre-movie previews...do you. At the maximum download speed for a 4mbs ADSL connection, it will take 5.5 hours to grab that movie. That takes renting the movie out of the realm of a spontaneous decision. If the decision requires planning, you can bet that NetFlix or the like will be more attractive, since you still have to plan ahead, but you get all of the other content that comes with the disk...for about the same price.

Now, I can see if MS makes some tv shows, and shorts available in HD...sure, but not movies.

[WindowsNow @ Nov 3rd 2006 2:28AM]

The 100GB Hard drive image was a fake. Thet's why the font looked off... it was photoshopped.

I pointed out the movie service changes in my weblog the other day...
http://www.windows-now.com/blogs/robert/archive/2006/10/31/Microsoft-Lays-Groudwork-for-Xbox-Live-vs-iTunes-Showdown.aspx.

Zune already connects to the 360 with the latest update. Zune already uses Microsoft Points. You better believe that you'll be able to buy content on the Xbox 360 and download it straight to your Zune... a lot sooner than 6 months. Look, J Allard wasn't put on this project for no reason. Of course he would have linked his pet projects together in every way he could think of.

[dazza @ Nov 3rd 2006 2:39AM]

i too can see this happeneing, i think its a natural progression more than anything to be honest, you'll find all computers, from your everyday pc(which is capable of doing it now) through to home consoles.

However, i, like a select few, have had problems with the 360 and over-heating. My consoles have always been well ventalated, yet 3 have crashed to what seems to be overheating issues. I would be very worried about leaving my 360 on for a considerable amount of time to download a movie. And then there is the issue of disc space on the HD-drive, as most of my 20gig hd-drive is filled with music/demos/markeplace games. Then theres the fact i dont have the ability to write the movies to disk straight away.

But don't get me wrong, i do like the idea and i definitely would embrace it on all formats and to be honest, this method will replace DVD/Blu-ray/Hd-DVD/VHS/Betamax anyway lol

[Rinil Boban @ Nov 3rd 2006 2:36AM]

a lot of people overlook Comcast
their on demand service already sells HD movies, but you can only watch them for 24 hours
They also put free HD movies like Terminator and Back to the Future
Im not sure if these movies are in 720p but they look great

[Greg @ Nov 3rd 2006 2:39AM]

internet is too slow for that at the moment... until we got bigger pipes, HD videos will be a pain to download / stream...

[Huleboeren @ Nov 3rd 2006 3:20AM]

No way Im downloading HD movies from LIVE - Its so awful slow here en europe :/.
The highest Ive ever got is 2mbit or so.

[Jason @ Nov 3rd 2006 3:55AM]

". For example, pay a flat fee of $25 per month (maximum) and watch unlimited number of movies during the subscription period. "

That's pretty cheap for a movie subscription. A single blockbuster film purchase can cost that much.

[S.A. @ Nov 3rd 2006 5:10AM]

I dont understand why MS opted to go with only a 20gb HD and did not make at least some form of storage standard on 360's. I love my 360 but the HD is way too small. How much more expensive would it be to go with like 40 or 60gb? Those are below standard in laptops nowadays.

[John @ Nov 7th 2006 8:20AM]

Forget HD for the moment, what if they just offer regular movie downloads with an HD option? I can see the average Joe with a non-HDTV jumping all over this... I think they key part of this discussion is movie downloads in general, the HD is just frosting on the cake. I wish someone would translate that Korean X360 powerpoint slide and try to determine what's hiding behind that guy's head.

[theflew @ Nov 3rd 2006 9:05AM]

I would be easier for Microsoft to allow you to plug in any external USB drive and use that. You can start with the built in 20GB, but if you really want to use the service plugin a larger drive (there cheap).

Also I imagine Microsoft could use the Vongo service that that they annouced with Starz.

[andy @ Nov 3rd 2006 9:36AM]

You guys are not doing the bandwidth math.

HD movies will take not 3 or 4 hours to download, but 15 or 20 hrs. Think about it. DSL caps at about 1.5mbps and cable is a pooled resource. So when everyone downloads something, you're not going to get your 3mbps or 10 (if you're dumb enough to pay for it); you're going to get 500kbps or less.

The movie future will probably be more like downloading encoded movies at 480i and going to the store or netflix to get your 720p and up content. It's the just limit of the internet right now. In the distant future, when drives are regularly sold over 1Tb in size, and we have fiber to our doorsteps, then you may download HD.

It's just not feasible to download HD movies right now. BRD and HDDVD will be integral for HD movies while sd DVD's will fade away to downloading and movies on demand (because you can get them in almost or actual real time and manage to store a bunch of them on current HDDs).

[Erik S @ Nov 3rd 2006 9:59AM]

A 12 GB HDD isn't big enough for an HD film. Before anybody flames me, the 360 has a 20 GB but the 360 software takes up a bit more than 8 GB of that space off the bat.

[Blehka @ Nov 3rd 2006 10:51AM]

I'm pretty sure that there is no way this is true. A true HD movie is at least 15-20GB. That would take days to download. Also, where would you put the movie? You might fit one movie on the Xbox hard drive. Then what? It's not like it comes with an HD DVD burner. Are users going to pay $4 for a movie that they'll have to delete in order to download another one? This rumor seems pretty bogus.

[AK @ Nov 3rd 2006 3:31PM]

I go with the Zune/Xbox 360 idea. I'm already streaming my WMV content (converting everything I have over with WMV9 codec). I would not be shocked if at least 480p movies become available through the Zune marketplace. That would be sweet!!!!!!

[mccarron @ Nov 3rd 2006 12:26PM]

I remember reading an article a long time ago that was supposedly from an interview with a "Microsoft insider" who said that Microsoft's plan all along was not for HD-DVD to succeed, they only supported it to equalize the format war so that NEITHER would succeed and they would swoop in with downloadable content. I wish I knew where it was now...

And yes they would be a bitch to download, and you would probably need a bigger harddrive (unless they make you download/stream a movie every time you want to watch). Think about it this way, Netflix takes what, a day at best? to get to your house. Downloading wouldn't take any longer than that. I could see alot of people going for this if Microsoft can make it work.

[Enzo @ Nov 3rd 2006 1:43PM]

I can see this happening, but I can't see them using the current hds as storage devices. Maybe this means downloads through a WMP11 store, where the videos are stored on your pc and streamed to your console. And keep in mind that HD content doesnt NEED to be 10gb and over.

[Ashley Allen @ Nov 3rd 2006 1:38PM]

My bet would be that if they do it they do it though the Zune brand and stream it from your PC to your 360 and you can also copy a downscaled version to your Zune.

[John Miller @ Nov 3rd 2006 2:05PM]

Assuming it is technically possible... I strongly suspect they'll start a subscription service for movies like they did for music (the awesome PlaysForSure format, which I love and adore and cry myself to sleep at night thanking God for his blessings). "So...?", you ask. SO.... that means that for $20-$30 a month you basically "own" every movie there is out there-- in H-freaking-Dee. Why do I say they'll do that? Because subscription services are a better idea for movies than they are for music (because people enjoy replaying songs more than movies so they'll have less qualms about not actually, physically owning content). The Xbox 360 is quickly becoming as important to own as a TV. Mark my words. You'll all own Xboxes and Zunes in 5 years and you'll cry *yourselves* to sleep at night.

I've never been a MS fanboy before, but with the Urge service and this coming out, it can be seriously argued that MS is revolutionizing (I don't throw that word around wantonly) the way we watch movies and listen to music. Apple with it's antiquated "you must own content" is behind the ideas curve but is currently ahead in the market because people are used to the old ways. But once the CD generation goes away, so will Apple's dominance.

[Brian @ Nov 4th 2006 2:06AM]

I LOVE IT! I have the 55" 1080p SXRD, but no HD DVD/BLURAY. I crave HD movies... but I only have an upscaling dvd player.

I hope this is true... it would be SO convenient to make my 360 a true media center!