Analysts calling it in favor of... Verizon

Get your head out of election mode, people, we've got a 700MHz auction to worry about! Those in the know are saying that Verizon is sneaking away with the C block, and that Google isn't too miffed about it. Plenty of pundits were predicting that Google would stand by its word and bid up to the $4.6 billion required to ensure the block of spectrum is made "open," but they figured Google would bail on the auction at that point and hope someone else would come along to up the ante and foot the bill. From all indications, Verizon is that lucky bidder, but instead of bidding directly on the national C block, analysts believe it's been Verizon that's snapped up enough regional slices of spectrum to equal the bidding price of the C block. Under FCC rules, if regional bids outstrip the C block price, the block is divvied up and given to the respective bidders. While any proper Google fanboy would love to see the search giant get its hand on last-mile wireless spectrum and break the grasp of current service providers, it was also rather optimistic. Don't stop believing, bidding isn't over yet, but we're getting ready to hunker down for another couple decades of Verizon / AT&T rivalry.

[Richard @ Feb 6th 2008 9:58AM]

Does that mean that there's no "open access" if only the regional slices are awarded? Or does open access apply no matter what, as long as the reserve is met?

[Samo @ Feb 6th 2008 10:17AM]

No, the open access rule still applies, because the total of all the regional bids must add up to more than $4.6bil to take over the 'block' price, hence the rules still applies.

The Register had an analysis on this situation, Which is kinda summed up in this blog here

[Tony Conner @ Feb 6th 2008 10:46PM]

If verizon gets the network an i have a iphone they are required to unlock the phone the phone even if AT&T says they can't. The government says that then network is open to any device than should include the iphone reguardless of apple's contract with AT&T. I don't think the contract wasn't written around the time this network bidding was told. And from what verizon said they are going open a gsm 3g network that will also be open to any device.

[Gar @ Feb 7th 2008 12:41PM]

@Tony:

Just because the band is open, does not mean every device miraculously can receive 700mHz signals. Your iphone is going to be just as good at receiving those signals as the computer mouse you are holding in your hand. Verizon and AT&T have nothing to do with that.

Even if it could receive the signal, AT&T would not have to unlock your phone. It just means that Verizon could not encrypt (or otherwise block your device) the signal. Any device capable of receiving 700mHz would have to be allowed to make use of the network.

Sorry to break it to you, but your iphone will need an additional antennae in order to be able to receive any 700mHz signal worth talking about. Strange that the iphone really is not the best piece of hardware on the market.

[kal326 @ Feb 6th 2008 10:02AM]

Well from what I hear if Verizon gets it we all get C-blocked...

[Brodie @ Feb 6th 2008 10:04AM]

Now I know why the cost of sending text messages went up....

Oh wait... that happened because Verizon is a bunch of greedy bastards. I can only imagine what rates they're going to raise now in order to cover this "investment."

[youknowit @ Feb 6th 2008 10:05AM]

this is truly sad news....

[Mark @ Feb 6th 2008 10:13AM]

Google! Please win! I'll let you scan all my emails and use your search engine forever!

[ByronGman @ Feb 6th 2008 12:39PM]

I think they'll do it anyway. :-)

But I'm totally with you. Google can molest my privacy as long as they want as long as they stay on top.

Gmail rocks!

[mister XR @ Feb 6th 2008 2:30PM]

Agreed. Considering how their GMail product has revolutionized email(remember being limited to a 10mb mailbox?), imagine what they could do if they won this block? I'll kick in a few bux haha

[whowhatme @ Feb 6th 2008 2:34PM]

also, i will name my firstborn google if they win.

[aguiluz @ Feb 6th 2008 4:19PM]

Bid-Snipe them, Google, Bid-Snipe them!!!

[looseinthedeuce @ Feb 6th 2008 10:18AM]

Yes, yes...but how does this change the date that SkyNet comes online?

[nh @ Feb 6th 2008 10:22AM]

If the auction isn't over, what's with all the 'Congratulations, the item is yours!' images? Is the bar now so low that posts can be made even in the absense of any actual news...

[OneLove @ Feb 6th 2008 10:24AM]

Google has to save its money to battle Microsoft and swoon yahoo.

[Nick @ Feb 6th 2008 10:49AM]

Id rather have google regulated wireless and still use google as a search engine then deal with the old wireless companies and still have yahoo as a search tool that i dont use.

[Ian @ Feb 6th 2008 10:28AM]

If its going to AT&T vs Verizon in communications over the next few decades, to quote Obiwan, "Than the emperor has already won."

[Todd @ Feb 6th 2008 10:34AM]

Fear not Ian, there is still hope. See
www.fon.com

and

http://www.pronetworks.org/index.php/tag/municipal-wifi

[Tom Oliveri @ Feb 6th 2008 10:28AM]

can we get a new image?

i think we're sick of ebay.. not funny anymore

[Elliott @ Feb 6th 2008 3:20PM]

speak for yourself. i enjoy the ebay interwebs images.

[austin @ Feb 6th 2008 4:59PM]

can you get a new image?
i think were all sick of i cant believe its not butter

[Todd @ Feb 6th 2008 10:30AM]

If Verizon thinks it can win the auction then turn around and try to close then slice back up again with it army of lawyers - that could be a good thing. They'd be in violation of the rules and have to for fit the spectrum to the next highest bidder.

"...Buyer did not disclose intent. F- grade! Will not sell to again!!!"

[Dave @ Feb 6th 2008 10:39AM]

I just hope Verizon gets fucked like T-Mo did a few years back with regards to a spectrum auction. Probably wont happen, but one can always dream...

[Gremlin @ Feb 6th 2008 10:33AM]

So much for that Google revolution...

[Frankenstein Black @ Feb 6th 2008 10:38AM]

Hum, let’s sum up this Verizon wisdom:
1. Billions in cost to roll FIOS curbside.
2. Billions invested in globally incompatible CDMA/EVDO.
3. Billions in lost roaming revenue IN/OUT Collects.
4. Billions to lobbyists to C Block the cable VOIP services.
5. Millions in lost revenue for not getting on the iPhone train.
6. Millions in lost revenue from limited, ESN based device selection.
7. And now Billions paid for spectrum that, well, you weren’t really hurting for. Why? To keep Google from getting at it.

The problem is not spectrum it’s costly nearside decisions like these (that in the grand scheme of things have netted you nil) and that CRAP 90s CDMA Technology! Imagine the added cost to “correct” items 2 & 3? Which Vodafone your restless co owner would love nothing better (i.e. we own half of a network we cant fing roam on/use).

Who would have thought that the “new” AT&T (previously the old Ma’Bell) would look so wise and fleet of foot? (i.e. pick any of the items above and look at the difference in decisions made).

[Nick @ Feb 6th 2008 10:56AM]

in terms of FIOS.. at least someone had the balls to do it finally. Sure in the short term its a alot of costs, but in the long term they will have the network there when no one else does. ATT trying to keep with the old copper lines is like Verizon passing on the iPhone deal.

[knowsbetter @ Feb 6th 2008 10:59AM]

Please, are you telling me AT&T has made fantastic decisions? Or wait is it Cingular, no wait its AT&T now....again.

Everything Verizon have invested in has been for the most part successful. They didn't pull those billions out of their behinds you know.

Are you telling me you wouldn't sign up for FIOS if you had the chance?

Nothing wrong with CDMA. Its fast, its reliable, it works. And Verizon's network coverage in the US cannot be beat.

That is why they can charge such high rates for their services. And is also why everyone complains about their pricing - because their service cannot be beat, yet you will pay a premium for it, and most people do.

If you don't believe me go look at any report on consumer satisfaction/retention studies and tell me who comes out on top, every time.

As for the iPHONE, a great phone on a SLOW network. No thanks. And don't forget - 25% of all those iPHONE's are unlocked and unaccounted for. What does that tell you?

[wickedpheonix @ Feb 6th 2008 11:05AM]

Don't forget - FiOS isn't as good as it seems. Terms of Service don't let you host any kind of server at that price and THAT is a real kick in the balls - you can't host anything, from small, private game servers to FTP servers on that awesome 15 Mb/s upload. And considering the fact that VZ is evil on everything else, especially their cell network, I'm almost happy I have Comcast. (15/15 is very, very alluring.... will, fading....)

[ByronGman @ Feb 6th 2008 12:47PM]

@wickedpheonix
Keep in mind though, that most of Verizon's components are practically seperate companies...

The cell phone network has nothing to do with their internet service, besides maybe when it comes to the one-bill thing. I've had vastly different experiences with the different Verizon entities...

[JB @ Feb 6th 2008 7:37PM]

That the said iphones are running on other GSM networks and not AT&T and most certainly not Verizon,s CDMA network.

[swib @ Feb 6th 2008 11:15AM]

@nh
following your logic (which amounts to analyst predictions aren't news), all of the super tuesday news coverage wasn't news either.

[cashmonee @ Feb 6th 2008 11:22AM]

Did anyone really think Google ever wanted anything to do with owning this? All they were doing is making sure they can get their ads on it.

[Iridium @ Feb 6th 2008 11:23AM]

For any telecom to get this block is bad news. I'm sorry but even the best Verizon service isn't even worth half the price you pay. Verizon wants the block so they can roll out a new wireless netowrk that will take less up front money than FIOS that they can charge a premium for. My guess is higher than $75 a month with bandwidth caps.

Do people forget that when the government dropped the line tax on DSL, Verizon and AT&T didn't pass the savings on to consumers, they just chaged the name of the tax and pocketed the money.

There is no real competition in the telecom business anymore. All of the companies work together to keep contract and service addon prices high.

While the rest of the world moves on with true broadband internet and amazing cell service at affordable prices, the USA will still be clinging to the garbage we have now and an endless increase in fees.

[Dave @ Feb 7th 2008 7:36AM]

last time I checked though the USA has the cheapest cell phone plans around...talk to someone in the EU (or dare I say, Canada?) and see what they are paying, I can tell you it's significantly higher

[riggs @ Feb 6th 2008 11:41AM]

cot dammit....GOOGLE WIN IT DAMMIT!

[Helio @ Feb 6th 2008 11:42AM]

>another couple decades of Verizon / AT&T rivalry

Not if AT&T follows through on their content filtering scheme. If they do I'd like to think we can look forward to only a few years before AT&T has totally f*cked themselves.

[Paul @ Feb 6th 2008 11:50AM]

Please tell Google I will donate $20 to the FUND to win the BID. If everyone donates then they can win it.

[Paul @ Feb 6th 2008 11:51AM]

does anyone have a e-mail address for google? I will e-mail them myself.

Paul

[rlynd3 @ Feb 6th 2008 1:26PM]

*[e-mail]*

[Trent @ Feb 6th 2008 1:12PM]

These same "analcysts" are the ones that cover Verizon and other Telco stock. They are trying to prevent a major selloff in telco stocks before it's announced that Google wins. Not only that but if they actually DID know what's going on in the auctions it's a MAJOR SEC violation unless the FCC told them.

[DP @ Feb 6th 2008 2:16PM]

Seriously, Google, if you want to be the trailblazer and that you aspire to be, well here is the oppertunity.

[Sean @ Feb 6th 2008 4:51PM]

There has to be something we can do to help if verizon wins this it will be a major if not the biggest technological incarceration ever. I agree with Paul above i to would be intrested in a donation or personally if they came out with some kinda discounted stock or something i would invest around 30,000$USD

[IndiaTech @ Feb 6th 2008 6:36PM]

FCC is such a cheepo. 4.6 billion, and they still don't agree to ship UPS Next Day.

And BTW, why is Verizon using Google's eBay user ID?

[Paul6 @ Feb 6th 2008 7:12PM]

Is anyone really surprised that Google is dropping out? The are a software company that specialize in advertisements are they really going to build a nationwide wireless network? No. they need the open access rules for their Android platform and ultimately their ad revenue. Dont get me wrong though, I love Google

Obama 08

[xploit @ Feb 6th 2008 10:28PM]

$3.50 postage? really... im sure you could bargin that down

[Xee @ Feb 6th 2008 11:39PM]

There goes the neighborhood.

[skulldriveshaft @ Feb 7th 2008 2:30AM]

those in the know want to lose their fucking jobs leaking this confidential bid information?

I'll watch the updates like everyone else, thanks.