HD DVD deathwatch: we're making it official
By Ryan Block 
posted February 15th 2008 3:36PM
posted February 15th 2008 3:36PM
HD DVD fans, we hate to do this to you, but it's time we called it. HD DVD is now officially on Engadget deathwatch. We haven't put anything important on deathwatch since TiVo in 2005 (which, as you may recall, still stands); but just as then, we have to step back from our personal preferences and investments in media and gear, ignore the rumors and hearsay, and take a close look at where things stand. We don't need Michael Bay to tell us the writing's on the wall.
So far this battle's been decided primarily by two factors: studio support and ubiquity of content. It's clear Sony's camp couldn't even come close to trumping Toshiba in hardware price war that's ensued over the past couple of years. But as it turns out, consumers that just spent thousands on a new HDTV weren't too concerned with a couple hundred dollars between players, and despite whatever users price won HD DVD, the PS3 Blu-ray trojan kept the competition at bay. Meanwhile, most consumers were too smart and too cautious to buy early in a format war. Most have simply waited this thing out, and while Warner's announcement to go exclusively Blu was obviously huge, it was only indicative of a trend -- it didn't set it.
If you look at the timeline, even before Warner announced its intentions to go Blu-ray exclusive HD DVD's studio base was already shrunken from its heyday, leaving it with fewer titles both in number and sales. Warner was just another push in the direction things were already headed -- the numbers already consistently showed Blu was ahead in media and install base, which has only become far more exaggerated in the last couple of months now that Blu amassed some 70% of studio-released titles.
But if you ask us, it's the ubiquity of content that sealed the deal. It wasn't until Blockbuster and later Netflix -- two of the three most widely used disc rental businesses in the US -- went Blu-ray exclusively that we knew HD DVD wasn't long for this world.
So here's the deal, Toshiba. As much as we hate putting any worthy technology on deathwatch, for the sake of the greater good we hope you guys just roll over and cut your losses so we can all move on. But if you really want off this deathwatch, you're not only going to have to retain Paramount (which owns Dreamworks) and Universal, you also need to win at least a few back from Blu (Warner and Disney would be a great start), and get hardware in consumers' hands, even if it means practically giving it away. It's not going to be easy -- hell, we think it's actually pretty hopeless -- but hey, that's why you're on deathwatch, innit?
P.S. -Special for this occasion, we've also brought our Blu-ray vs HD DVD: State of the Division charts up to date and added a few new tables.
This is a sad day for the market consumer... I purchased an A20 and (2) A3's for the price of mid priced blu-ray player and I'm watching HD in every room vs. one room.
What's wrong with that?
Thanks Sony...
Then again I can take the position that bad press for HD DVD is actually good press - HD DVD is getting a lot of play time right now.
I still get HD-DVD's from Blockbuster online, and they've added more new releases just this past week. Assassination of Jesse James comes out next week and they just added that as available in my queue as well, so Blockbuster is definitely not 'Blu-only'.
Toshiba can still save face: introduce a combo player that is Profile 2.0 compliant before Panasonic can get the DMP-BD50 out the door and price it at $400. I would laugh out loud and proudly break out the checkbook if the leader of the HD-DVD camp beat the entire Blu-Ray camp to the BD-Live punch. It's not as insane as you might think: Sony became one of the biggest VHS sellers around once they swallowed their pride and entered the market a decade after everyone else.
Actually - and I never (ever!) thought I'd catch myself saying this - I think Michael Bay was on to something. Obviously, Blu-Ray was going to out-compete HD DVD. But I think the whole war will turn out, whether deliberate or not, to have been a total sham. Blu-Ray and HD DVD were both doomed from the get go; that is, regardless who's won the high def. disc war, the winner is inevitably slated to lose to digital downloads, anyway. And though the ascendency of digital downloads won't be immediate, Blu Ray will never get (and HD DVD never would have gotten) a chance to steal the spotlight from DVD the way DVD stole it from VHS. Those of us that have amassed collections of vhs tapes, only to have them rendered obsolete by dvds have learned our lesson, I think. Just as audio tapes were replaced by CDs and CDs were replaced by our PMPs and cell phones, the next evolution of video is going to mean no discs, not high def disks.
Sorry, Blu Ray. You beat the anemic kid in the ring, but Godzilla's outside about to crush the stadium.
It's about time.
I was an HD-DVD supporter, but when there's no media available for a technology, then it's USELESS.
Bury it. It died last month. It's starting to stink.
I hate sony, so I don't support Blu-ray (even though it has more GB's....it would be different if Pioneer made it and backed it like sony did) but I don't like Toshiba that much so I don't really care, I'm happy with my DVD, but as soon as HD-DVD is dead...i'm buying me an HD-DVD Player ^_^
DIE HDDVD DIEEEEE
GLAD I BOUGHT MY PS3
SONY WINS THIS TIME AROUND!!
Wow. This is a very nicely written article. Quite rare in this site though.
Ryan, I agree with almost all of what you said.
It's about time Microsuck got the crap kicked out of it in some kind of way. I know this is just a format war but Microsuck has been back HD-DVD so they can DRM our life worse than a sony rootkit ever thought of. I think this is great news. Buy a PS3 and use Linux on it and your PC.
Next headline is PS3 outsells XBOX and everything Microsuck even windoze. All you need is a PS3 and Linux.
Once HD DVD is gone, Sony will stab it's brothers in the back because they know that PS3 can easily upgrade over blu ray set tops for the average consumer.
I hope this means that Blockbuster will actually start carrying Bluray in the stores now.
Blockbuster does carry Blu-Ray movies in their stores just not ALL of them. Actually don't think they should carry them in every store just yet. Where I live there are too many Blockbusters. They should increase the number but would prefer that BB increase the number copies of Blu-Ray movies at the stores they do carrry them in.
yeah, but none of the NYC stores...
You know..tons of articles on engadget about HD-DVD failing and everything is probably because a blu-ray guy had paid them off to do so, to express all these dozens of articles on engadget. so consumers and sales will fall even more, thus word getting round, thus HD-DVD actually going downhill quicker because of articles like these...
I can't wait until tomorrow. Several sources have said that the official announcement from the Toshiba camp is expected to come out tomorrow. They have spent the weekend on how to make the official announcement. The clock is ticking...ticking....ticking....
Get your party hats ready. I got the champagne in the chiller. This deathwatch will be over soon.
Wired magazine has said it to be official, Toshiba has dropped it's format today.
I agree with Mr. B. A great deal of the HD DVD titles are not going to be replaced by Blu-Ray. It is unfortunate but there will be some lost titles. Robin Hernreich - http://www.robert-hernreich.com/