Google: Android will outsell iPhone, we still love ya Steve
By Thomas Ricker 
posted March 14th 2008 4:47AM
posted March 14th 2008 4:47AM
Watching Google tiptoe around its relationship with Apple as it rolls out Android is one of the most enjoyable aspects of watching the industry these days. This is perfectly illustrated in the words of Rich Miner, group manager for Google's mobile platforms, who said, "there's a much larger potential market on Android than for the iPhone." A truthful statement in all likelihood assuming that the OS is robust upon its global release later this year and available on handsets from HTC, Samsung, Motorola, and LG as expected. Miner then took a few shots at the iPhone SDK saying, "There are things I saw people doing with the first version of the Android SDK that it seems like you can't do with the iPhone at least at the moment." He then noted that the SDK had been downloaded 750,000 times (compared to Apple's 100k in 4 days) as of February. Naturally, he then applied a thick, brown coat of public relations salve saying, "[If I were a developer] I'd certainly be looking at the iPhone, and if you believe there will be lots of Android phones out there, as we do, I'd be developing for both platforms." Kumbaya my BossEricSchmidtSitsOnTheAppleBoard, kumabaya...
Android is an open OS being developed by Google presumably for use on mobile phones. It would be used by phone manufacturers like HTC for example (or franchises like Sprint, Verizon etc.), and people are comparing it to the iPhone because Android seems to be the first honest attempt outside of Apple to make a phone UI that's designed well.
Because it's open, anybody would be able to use it for their phone, and presumably customize it for their specific hardware. A more accurate comparison would be to Windows Mobile, except Android is free and anybody can use it.
http://code.google.com/android/
"Android will outsell iPhone"
Ya, probably because they will ACTUALLY release it in Canada...
The first, and most important, part of this discussion is noted here by Erick.
Both OSs on both phones don't mean a whole lot when it comes to the general public. If you think the average Wal-Mart shopper is going to be hunting down a cell phone simply because its running Android, you're nuts.
Don't get me wrong. I shop there too. Sometimes I have to. Thing is, looking around there, it's not a big techie type of store with techie types of shoppers. Hell, Best Buy is really not even such a store in reality. It just plays one on tv.
The iPhone is badass plain and simple. As a former three different generation Treo user (ending with my old Treo 650) and even delving into Windows Mobile with a Sprint phone I had once, I can tell you that the iPhone does it all well. Its a great music and video device, PIM and phone. Nothing has ever really done that for me before this. And I flat out loved my Treo 650. It was the closest.
Greatest idea ever.
Android......... on the iPhone.
How can Android "outsell" the iphone, when it's free?? Steve Jobs/Apple 1 Google 0
"will outsell iPhone?"
No kidding, Einstein, Google isn't making a phone. They're making software and that's it. I think they're doing a great job too, they're going to have no shortage of customers, but to compare what they are doing with the iPhone is like apples and oranges.
Besides, as businesses the real question is bottom line right? Well Google's potential revenue sources are: Licensing Fees (paid by handset manufacturer, passed along to the consumer) and Advertising (whatever annoying/helpful doodads that get to try and buy the internet's worthless stuff). Apple's revenue sources are: Profit Margin on $400 cellphone and Unique renewable carrier revenue sharing agreements.
Apple's doing what Apple has always done, moving at its own pace, growing when it can (iPod), but not seeking that growth head-on, but rather focusing on making a product that THEY like and love using, always a peripheral vision towards market and mind share.
Is Google's Android going to outsell iPhone? Absolutely. Enough low-tier handset manufacturers will make cheap touchscreen phones and license Android for their use, and the sales from a $99 device like that will probably be enough to "outsell" but I'd be apt to wager that it won't be "out-profiting" the iPhone for years to come.
FWIW, I think Android is great. I hope everyone who feels the need to hate on the iPhone can get an Android device with totally open software frameworks, 3G, a user-replaceable battery, and GPS so that they can finally be happy. Whatever it takes to shut them up.
He's kind of stating the obvious. If you're developing a phone app PERIOD you need to make it on as many "platforms" in the cell space as possible. Sure, it's easy to say that an iphone app could share similarities with an android app due to touch screen, but then again, what about Wimo6 HTC Touch? What about non-touch screen android phones?
Might as well make it for all phones if we're playing that game.
In either case. Boo iphone and yay android. :)
It's hard to compare the Android to the i-phone as they both currently are. i-phone will win that argument hands down. But the open source ideology has the potential to produce a better product in time. I'd like to keep my current Tmobile account and be able to browse free starbucks wifi on my phone. This seems at least possible on an open source phone. On the i-phone? not so much.
Hate to tell you that Starbucks has signed with AT&T to switch over from T-mobile. So, iPhones will have free reign at Starbucks in the near future. But, luckily for you, from what I understand, AT&T is letting T-mobile users surf free at Starbucks, but I wouldn't count on that for too long.
If Google's Andriod ends up being like any one of the tons of beta crap they have lying around unfinished, then I would say it prob won't be a great OS for 1 or 2 years once they finally finalize the whole thing and get the kinks worked out.
Just another case of a company with too much money trying to dip their toes into as many unfamilar waters as possible and no matter what they do people are still going to worship them just cuz they are Google.
I'm guessing the anti-Apple zealots are going to love this, even though it's comparing an open mobile OS to a single piece of hardware + closed OS. Wow, even Google has some idiots working for them.
There's room for both SDKs. They probably both have their own strengths and weaknesses. Right now the iPhone SDK is targeted for one cellphone and it's hardware. Maybe it won't do everything for everyone, but it will have strengths to sell very well. Just because Android is totally open and you can do anything you want with it, doesn't mean it's going to be perfect for everyone. There may be plenty of fancy applications that wind up crashing as much as applications crash on the WinMobile platform. Everything is just talk now. We have to wait to see how these SDKs work in the real world. In a few months we'll be able to see if the iPhone and the SDK lives up to it's hype. It won't be perfect, but it should be very good and will help boost iPhone sales quite a bit.
this is stupid.. seriously!
Android is for everyone.. and OSX is just on Apple's own product iPhone. unfair competition like 5 against one!
Time to sell your Google Stock!!
In the end, I think its clear that google will push out more copies of its OS than apple. While not a huge apple fan my self, I have to applaud Jobs for causing a huge ripple in the Cell Phone industry. Maybe Motorola and Nokia and others were already heading in the direction of better UI, better input methods, ect, but Apple did cause them to speed things up. With the Android OS, there are alot of possibilities, but it will be up to the manufacturers to take that and turn it into something amazing, and for that, we have to take a wait and see approach. At least the bar has been raised.
I definitely agree that Apple, and the iPhone specifically, was a catalyst for Android. Talk about the shot heard round the world, people are finally starting to figure out that your phone interface doesn't have to suck. Whether Android is successful or not, the important thing is that people are going to start demanding more from their phone UI.
can someone talk about the marketing aspect? it took apple 1 year of actual hype and less than 1 year of actual product use to solidify the name: "iphone" into the minds of EVERYONE. 100% of all my NON-tech savy friends know what the iphone is. several of them actually bought the thing too. I cant say the same for windows mobile. How will the name "Andriod" fit in all of this? It might be a stupid point...but if the argument is who will outsell who, it should be brought up.
Bring on the full speed gba & snes emulators for android... lol people I am telling you the cellphone is going to end up swallowing so many devices. It is the ultimate convergence device. All we need is cell phones with built in 1080p projectors and it is going to replace our TV's. The future is looking bright as long as we dont die from global warming or enter world war 3 or the world nukes itself to death or a meteor crashes into us or we enter another ice age or get hit with giant floods or blizzards or peak oil causes humanity to roll back into savagery. Oh and there's always that super ultra great depression looming over our heads with the state of the world economy.
I think one thing alot of people are missing is that the "openess" of Andriod is great in all, but because its just an open OS and not a locked down piece of hardware, in the end the service providers will ultimatly rip out what ever they dont like...that is unless you buy a phone unlocked.
Most avereage americans go to their cell providers and buy a phone with a 2 year contract. Because they dont want to buy an unlocked phone for 350-400$ they get a contract and end up paying 99$. And thats fine in all until you realize that alot of the times these cell providers gimp the phone for their benifit.
Case in point, I had a phone that would have let you (if it was unlocked) put MP3s on it and then set those as a ringtone. But my provider removed that feature from the phone, and its probably because they wanted consumers to buy their 15 second crappy ringtones for 1.99$.
Most avereage american cell phone buyers just want something that works, and if it looks cool and has nifty features all the better. The main key of succsess despite the high price point of the Iphone, is that it has the Ipod generation backing it, and people are not usally acustomed to all the features the Iphone has (full featured internet comes to mind).
Sure alot of the Iphones features have been done before on different phones, but for the most part those were the "buisness" type phones, and your average mom and dad, or teenage kid wouldnt buy into one of those unless their job demanded it. The Iphone took those sort of things and made it mainstream, or as mainstream as you can get with a 499$ pricetag. And because they have such tight control over their software and the hardware all of the features APPLE wanted to get passed on...got passed on.
Because I can bet you, the one thing AT@T hates the most about the Iphone is that is cuts into their music ringtone market. If it was up to them they would have never wanted people to be able to use Itunes with the Iphone, they would have loved to sell you all of their ringtones, and games and wallpapers and other over priced media. But they rolled with it because they knew the Iphone would have a huge market to go off of (Ipods).
So I think, unless theres some way for phone makers to cut out the cell providers from stripping features out of the OS, then it becomes a moot point on how "open" it is, and until Apple came into the phone market no other phone maker stood up to the service providers.
I would think the only way to get full benifit from Andriod would be to buy an unlocked version of the phone.
Now I know some people might tell me Im totally wrong, because they dont really lock down WM or other things like that. But I think that its because those phones go for the "buisness" type crowd. If andriod were to be put into middle-of-the-line phones Id be willing to bet that features and capabilities would be locked out and shut down.
So all in all, Im not trying to say OSX or Andriod is better, Im just suggesting that its still up for the Adroid phone makers to push the cell providers as Apple did to let them have more control of the OS. Because if theres one thing the cell providers want, its to turn a profit, and if everyone can port wallpapers and ringtones and other media things from their computer to their phone bypassing the cell company...well they wouldnt be turning much of a profit Im guessing.
Sorry for all the typos, its late at night and I was trying to speed type that stuff out.