It's tough to predict the future, especially with cutbacks to R&D budgets in the face of a global economic slowdown. Still, it's always nice to see a forward-looking corporate-slide related to mobile handsets from the taller, blonder half of that Sony Ericsson partnership.
LTE and
fast CPUs are certainly no surprise, nor is that 1,024 x 768 XGA screen resolution that Japan's superphones are
already bumping up against. The most compelling vision is that of the embedded camera sensors: 12-20 megapixels capable of recording Full HD video by 2012. Adding more fuel to firey speculation that handsets are about to
find themselves embroiled in a megapixel war. Fine by us, just as long the optics and image processing are there to support such a resolution. Even though 12-20 megapixels seems high compared to the 5-8 megapixel cell phones we see today, those numbers are entirely within reason when you recall that Samsung hit
10 megapixels in Korea two years ago. In fact, we wouldn't be surprised in the least to find Ericsson's mythical device on the market well prior to 2012. Combined, these features certainly make for a tantalizing glimpse at the wireless handset future.
posted November 7th 2008 5:30AM
I love how they predict 100mbps connectivity while even 1mbps edge is almost nonexistent, let alone 3G connectivity that theoretically tops at 7.2 mbps.
And we all know that more megapixels means better image, right?
But Ericsson is Swedish, and the preparation for 4G/LTE has already started.
Let's journey 4 years back: 3G with 368 Kbps, now 7,2 Mbps. About 20 times faster. 7,2*20=144Mbps.
Second of all, the carrier 3 in Denmark has poles of up to 14Mbps, but most phones and modems do only support the 7,2Mbps speed. In Copenhagen inner city I get about 5,5Mbps, although with poor latence :)
Telstra a much hated and debated Australian telco is trailing 21Mbit HSPA+ and looks like it will have it in place by the end of the year. I'm still using 384Kbit but with a lot of phones supporting 7.2Mbit, 21Mbit is realistic and 100Mbit in a few years might not be impossible at all. The only thing preventing it would be the lack of reasoning for anything faster than say 30Mbit. I can hardly see what anyone would need on the go any faster than 3Mbit..
Look, Its not how many mega pixels it has. Its the quality of the CCD and the shutter speed (ISO) that counts.
Current phones are a joke and unless you keep an ultra steady hand focus and blur is a joke.
I would be over the moon to have a phone with only 4-5MP but EVERY shot you take is focused, crystal clear and sharp. Where low light (2 lux) shots are equally equivalent.
Mega pixel numbers are for idiots who just have not got a clue!
I'm glad they stopped working on voice quality or signal strength, because I know my wife is really keen on me having HD video rather than being able to hear her grocery list on the way home. I haven't heard of a single voice quality, call quality or signal strength enhancement...ever. Why is wonder?
@ Apple Magic
"Look, Its not how many mega pixels it has." - YES, very true.
"Its the quality of the CCD..." YES, large photosites are what you want. You'll get less noise at higher ISO setting generally.
"...and the shutter speed (ISO) that counts" NO, what you're looking for here is BETTER GLASS. A better lens is worth more than more pixels. Better glass means more light hits the sensor giving you more creative flexibility.
You can stick a 40MP camera in a phone if you want, but if it's looking through a 3mm wide plastic lens... your pics are going to be JUNK.
seems preety realistic actually. se x2 announced 09 shipped '12
"preety realistic".... in japan.
US will be lucky to see these by 2020. Last 3 phones I've had were all 1.3 mp and horrible quality at that.
Why? I'd rather have a phone that can do basic operations with a ultra long battery life.. For pictures I always have a better camera anyway and same with video..
You need 20 megapixels!!
You always have a better camera and camcorder with you? Granted 20mp takes the proverbial but something like a 6mp cam with decent optics and xenon in a mobile would be sweet. I for one don't carry my DSLR and suite of lenses with me at all times.
Look, Its not how many mega picles it has. Its the quality of the CCD and the shutter speed (ISO) that counts.
Current phones are a joke and unless you keep an ultra steady hand focus and blur is a joke.
I would be over the moon to have a phone with only 3MP but every shot you take is crystal clear and crisp and low light shots are equivalent to the naked eye in exposure and colour, similarly sharp and in focus.
Mega pixel numbers are for idiots who just have not got a clue!
Look, Its not how many mega pixels it has. Its the quality of the CCD and the shutter speed (ISO) that counts.
Current phones are a joke and unless you keep an ultra steady hand focus and blur is a joke.
I would be over the moon to have a phone with only 3MP but every shot you take is crystal clear and crisp and low light shots are equivalent to the naked eye in exposure and colour, similarly sharp and in focus.
Mega pixel numbers are for idiots who just have not got a clue!
Shutter speed does not = ISO. They are seperate concepts.
A cell phone camera has a minuscule sensor and crappy small lens, having 20MP on a sensor that small means you are having even smaller photosites that capture light.
Going with high-megapixel count for a cell phone camera actually reduces quality. Which is the reason why modern dSLRs and point-and-shoots are focusing more on dynamic range and high-ISO performance and sacrificing megapixels these days. ~8MP is the resolution needed to print a 8X10 photograph at 300dpi, modern 8-12MP cameras are more then the average person needs (Nikon intentionally kept their full-frame D3/700 at 12MP). Resolution has never been the problem with cell-phone photographs, the problem is that cell phone camera pictures looks like a noisy mess with poor color representation; increasing megapixels doesn't solve that problem.
You're kidding me ... this is classic "Popular Science" crap where people just dream things up and it never happens (i.e. flying car) Does anyone know how hot a chip gets when it is running at 1GHz without proper cooling? More than your pants can bare! Then there is the issue of demand for these products that can do what they predict ... there is no way people are going to NEED somethings like this in 4 years.
You are right. You need it now!
@Joseph
"More than your pants can bare!"
duh, Ericsson have planned for us to not HAVE to wear pants in the future.
A couple of years ago 600Mhz processors already exists in mobile devices like PDAs. There is no reason not to think that in four years time 1Ghz processors will be common in phones, especially with improved fab process.
@ Dave Chappelle
I stopped wearing pants months ago. Does that mean I'm closer to the world of tomorrow?
Uhhh....the Flying Car is in development bro:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2005/04/15/60minutes/main688454.shtml
http://www.moller.com/skycar
http://www.nydailynews.com/money/2008/11/03/2008-11-03_california_company_says_its_flying_car_w-1.html
@ Joseph,
1GHz in a cell phone will be fine in 2010. The ARM Cortex A8 and A9 will be able to do that (or the equivalent in the A9 case) without any heat problems. You are thinking about PC chips. The Cortex in 45nm or 32nm technology will be fine, actually 1GHz isn't even pushing the envelope.
Considering how useless 5 megapixles is on cellphones today, 20 would be utterly useless. please stop this madness!
Obviously you don't know what tethering is..
Oh crap I thought you said megabits :].
I don't even want 20mpixels in a proper camera, it's not necessary for the average user, and just creates unnecessarily large and noisy images!
Well you can set your camera to shoot at whatever pixel amount you please.
Are you seriously complaining about having the OPTION to raise the pixels?
1GHz processor? That's going to burn my leg.
well arm cortex a8 core that are out there rite now can go to 900 MHz they will greater than 1 GHz can do it with just getting warm little warm you are thinking of x86 processors
if you improve efficiency than it's completely possible. reducing power consumption = less heat.
You know (shoot me if I'm wrong) but this really shows what is wrong with mobile phone thinking right now - none of these features are really new, just imrpoved. Let's look at some of the most influential tech jumps in phones: camera, GPS, video calling, touchscreens, email and web access, wi-fi, memory expansion.
Most of the time, for most of the people purchasing phones (with the obvious exception of those who only want cutting edge stuff) its the presence of a new feature they think they could use, not the constant refinement and improvement of that feature that they look for - or else we'd all be buying phones every 3-6 months.
And even for the people who do go out and buy every new phone they can, how much more excited are you when you get an awesome new feature, rather than a minor improvement on the old one?
What would really set the phone industry off in the next 4 years (IMHO) will be new, different features - ie micro-projection, phone-based payment, visual recognition (see a landmark, or shop, automatically downloads info based on GPS position, picture, etc to provide extre info / contact details, etc - ie, a bus stop could provide the timetable, or next bus notification, while a cinema gives movie times, etc), even network based file transfer (think mms on steroids - ever wanted to p2p that movie you took or that song you're listening to to your mates?)
Sure things like a 20megapixel cameraphone with 10,000x optical zoom are going to make people think they should buy it, but its the new and game-changing features that will really capture people's attention (and their money) - I mean come on, guys, all they've really said here is that the things that people like on phones will get better over time. They can do better than that!
Excellent thoughts Liam. Totally agree. Look at the interest developed as part of the Android Development program. Its not about improving the camera but finding more interesting uses. From a hardware perspective, adding features that can be used in different ways is far more interesting.
It would have been more exciting if they said that in 4 years we will have dslr quality photos in cellphones.
I don't want 20 megapixels of noise.
oh, ok - so that might have been a bit long. Sorry, don't shoot!
Cool noodles
I hope this cartoon demonstrates the point
http://www.monkandhisitjunk.com/2008/11/05/monk-119-what-is-all-the-fuss-about-packaging/
I will be happy if in four years our cellphones will look like Japanese phones today.
You mean a phone with bad reception, poor battery life and a slow messy and unusable UI?
Screen res of 1024x768... on a mobile?
Either thats going to be a big ass mobile, or it will ship with super contact lenses.
Oo, 20 megapixel, amazing, imagine the "high quality" images it will produce, especially in low light ;)
hm.. tbh I just want a small phone, internet and musicplayer... if I want to take pictures I'll bring a camera... cameraphone pictures are crap anyway... :P
That's the point... if they weren't crap, then you would be using your phone instead of your camera.
Wonderful distractions from the shitty lens, terrible battery life, awful carrier and build quality.
I'm with the sensible ones - I really don't want any more than 6-8 megapixels in a point and shoot camera, which is effectively what a cellphone camera is. Any more is just wasted unless the optics are up to the job, and it's very hard to see how they can be in a pocketable device. More resolution just results in higher density sensors with concomitant higher noise, larger filesizes etc etc.
On an allied note, I have no plans to replace my current Canon Ixus camera (unless I lose it) because all the more recent ones have higher resolution sensors, and I just don't want a 10 or 12 megapixel sensor in a camera of its class. In a SLR camera with a fast high quality replaceable lens it's a different matter, though.
Also, kudos to Liam for addressing the current fallacy of the marketing gurus. New game-changing features are where the development should be focused, not on simply making the same but a bit better. The only company that consistently attempts to do this is Apple, and it's really a shame that other companies can't try a bit harder to emulate their innovation.
I completely agree that the industry and consumers have become engrossed in the megapixel race in camera phones, me included, and we need to look for revolutionary new features, and not merely evolutionary. I gave up on camera phones with my current Sony Ericsson K850i; anymore pixels and I'm not going to notice the different myself as I don't print out large copies to warrant the jump in resolution. Pico projectors are something I've been keen on too, as it opens up completely new ways in which to display content. If this technology was brought to the mainstream in handsets, I would definitely be interested.
I would really like to see new ways in which to interact with my handset and new types of information be made available. It doesn't have to be a huge leap in technology, just a small feature that had been missed so far.
Exactly: imagine the types of interactions you could have with your phone simply with the pico-projector output combined with the camera input:
* Projected image of a menu on a whiteboard - the phone's camera detects a finger pressing a menu item based on the shape/location of your hand and the distance of the shadow thrown by it - uses that as a click. Suddenly you have a mobile multitouch wall from your phone. Eyetoy games, presentation tools, even whiteboard based semi-real pong!!
* Or maybe we'll use the camera combined with an accelerometer to allow a phone to accurately position itself within a 3d environment - suddenly your phone is a wireless mouse (I know some phones can be hacked to do this already), or you can pan and zoom simply by moving your phone left and right, up or down, forward or back - think of the analogy of looking through a magnifiying glass...
perhaps nokia can even work out voice dialing so "John Smith" doesn't equal 'Join Sith'...
I agree with you completely. You make some very good suggestions of possible future implementations of handset features and really, it doesn't seem to be too far off in the future either. I really would like to see holographic projection brought to handsets, as it would be an ideal way in which content could be viewed, interacted with and utilised in all shapes and forms.
Example:
Imagine a news broadcast streaming on your handset. You then place your handset on a table, for example, with the screen facing up and make a gesture over the screen of the handset. Momentarily, the new broadcast continues via a 3D holographic projection an inch above the screen. You change channel/stream by making a gesture via the projected image.
This is all possible due to the advanced accelerometer in the handset, taking into account the position and orientation, the 3D holographic projector situated beneath the screen, allowing for larger, more sophisticated optics, and a new type of advanced OLED screen that allows for video and light to be projected through.
This isn’t the stuff of science fiction either, as we can similar, albeit simpler, implementations in current projects. Just look at the recent article on Engadget regarding holographic imagery and the recent Pico projector announcements as evidence.
I want one with detachable lenses.
That way I get a Canon 5D mark II for a tenth of the prize and I get to walk arond with a Sigma 50-500 attached to my mobile phone.
*Note to self
Buy baggy pants in 2012
20MP camera with a 1/100,000" sensor
I hope they also add in 250x digital zoom!
They left off the last bullet point.
** Because of the above feature list, our handset data and talk time will be reduced to an average of one hour.