Switched On: Compelling computing can keep netbooks niche
By Ross Rubin 
posted July 28th 2009 3:00PM
posted July 28th 2009 3:00PM
Ross Rubin (@rossrubin) contributes Switched On, a column about consumer technology.
If the PC marketplace were an ocean, you'd see a strange sight -- small fish (netbooks) eating medium-sized fish (notebooks) eating large fish (desktops). But PC vendors are only partially pleased with this inversion of the natural order. While they embrace the replacement of desktops with higher-margin notebooks, they fear the cannibalization of notebooks with low-margin netbooks. Fast-growing and inexpensive netbooks have become such a threat to the notebook business that Intel and Microsoft have been wrestling with how they can adjust pricing in order to persuade PC makers not to market budget Atom-based laptops that have screens larger than 10" such as the sleek 11.6" Acer Aspire One A075 or 12.1" Lenovo IdeaPad S12.
Slower, less expensive processors running an older, lower-priced version of Windows have put pressure on Microsoft's Windows revenue. But rather than bemoaning consumer demand for less powerful PCs, Microsoft would do well to create more incentive to purchasing more powerful ones. Apple has partially addressed this issue by including, enhancing and promoting iMovie and GarageBand in its bundled iLife suite. These are two applications that can become quite processor-intensive when used for sophisticated tasks, like stabilizing a jumpy video.
But even more significantly, Apple has made the issue moot by creating an effective floor in the Mac product line of an Intel Core 2 Duo. Clearly that's not an option for Microsoft, nor for many of its PC vendor partners catering to more value-minded shoppers. Indeed, Microsoft has optimized the Windows 7 kernel to run more efficiently on the lower-end netbooks that are the source for growth in the PC market. And that's the right move.
Nobody would advocate that Microsoft should produce bloatware, and Windows Vista took some of its early potshots because it ran poorly on PC hardware without sufficient graphics acceleration. Tuning Windows 7 should help change perceptions that Vista created and help it compete more effectively against a tuned Mac OS version coming in Snow Leopard.
The differentiator must be more than user interface polish such as the translucence and animation effects of Aero because that isn't enough of a pull for those on the fence. Graphically advanced video games are, of course, demanding applications that drove some of the most powerful consumer PC hardware. But they are not included with Windows and, while more people may play them than compose multitrack compositions in GarageBand, their appeal is also less than universal.
With Google's Chrome OS threatening to further attack the low end of the market, now is the time for Microsoft to start cashing in some of its R&D investments in new input methods, user interface, media processing and artificial intelligence to build more into Windows that requires advanced hardware. Such capabilities must be broadly appealing, either enabling users to do something they cannot do otherwise or in such an engaging way that consumers would hate to give it up.
The last thing Windows needs is a new SKU, but it's acceptable to create a minimum system requirements for a subset of features. These can help differentiate the high-end PC better and reinforce the industry's desired role of the netbook as a second or third companion device that runs Windows, yet can't deliver a full PC experience.
Ross Rubin is director of industry analysis for consumer technology at market research and analysis firm The NPD Group. Views expressed in Switched On are his own.
Slower, less expensive processors running an older, lower-priced version of Windows have put pressure on Microsoft's Windows revenue. But rather than bemoaning consumer demand for less powerful PCs, Microsoft would do well to create more incentive to purchasing more powerful ones. Apple has partially addressed this issue by including, enhancing and promoting iMovie and GarageBand in its bundled iLife suite. These are two applications that can become quite processor-intensive when used for sophisticated tasks, like stabilizing a jumpy video.
But even more significantly, Apple has made the issue moot by creating an effective floor in the Mac product line of an Intel Core 2 Duo. Clearly that's not an option for Microsoft, nor for many of its PC vendor partners catering to more value-minded shoppers. Indeed, Microsoft has optimized the Windows 7 kernel to run more efficiently on the lower-end netbooks that are the source for growth in the PC market. And that's the right move.
Nobody would advocate that Microsoft should produce bloatware, and Windows Vista took some of its early potshots because it ran poorly on PC hardware without sufficient graphics acceleration. Tuning Windows 7 should help change perceptions that Vista created and help it compete more effectively against a tuned Mac OS version coming in Snow Leopard.
Now is the time for Microsoft to start cashing in some of its R&D investments in new input methods, user interface, media processing and artificial intelligence. |
With Google's Chrome OS threatening to further attack the low end of the market, now is the time for Microsoft to start cashing in some of its R&D investments in new input methods, user interface, media processing and artificial intelligence to build more into Windows that requires advanced hardware. Such capabilities must be broadly appealing, either enabling users to do something they cannot do otherwise or in such an engaging way that consumers would hate to give it up.
The last thing Windows needs is a new SKU, but it's acceptable to create a minimum system requirements for a subset of features. These can help differentiate the high-end PC better and reinforce the industry's desired role of the netbook as a second or third companion device that runs Windows, yet can't deliver a full PC experience.
Ross Rubin is director of industry analysis for consumer technology at market research and analysis firm The NPD Group. Views expressed in Switched On are his own.
I wonder if the Chrome OS is actually going to be successful. It it meant to dwell exclusively in the Netbook world? Or are they attempting a mass OS sweep of all computer niches?
Partially pleased? That's BS. They're hating those netbooks with a vengeance. Those netbooks are sad excuses for computing. They belong in India or China, not in the U.S. They are almost single-handedly crippling the U.S. computer market. People used to think Core Solos were slow and underpowered and now people are clamoring for Atom 1.6s. WTF. Keep buying those little crappers and see what happens to Microsoft's next quarter.
Microsoft is threatened by netbooks running it's eight-year old Windows XP. They didn't sink billions of dollars into both Vista and Windows 7 for people to continue using Windows XP. Just remember they also make money selling Office for Windows and believe me, there'll be very few people running MS Office on their netbooks. For both MS and the mainstream computer companies, netbooks are at least a three year step back into the past. I understand if people are buying netbooks with notebooks or desktops, but just owning a netbook is absurd. Maybe only the netbook buyer benefits from it and I wouldn't say that was a lock either.
One commenter mentioned that they're good as disposables. If you drop it and it breaks you can just go out and buy another for next to nothing. I would advise any mobile computer user to be careful and not to drop them at all. Well, enjoy those netbooks while you can, because their future is looking bleak in their present form. They're starting to grow in size and next will be in price and you'll still be stuck with an Atom-powered slug.
I don't get the Tron reference...
anyone else thinking of ''tron guy" when looking at the photo?
I almost forgot about him, thanks engadget!
I am Linux.
Ha! I just watched the film today and MAN! was it a cheesy one :D but still very cool, especially the VFX, for the time.
Now, has anyone seen the Tron Legacy VFX demo? o_O that's some hot shit right there, go see it now!
* watching it again *
Yeah my younger brother has played the Tron Legacy vid many many times in the last few days... and in fast and slow motion. I'm a little tired of it, but still... bring on the movie! :D
There seems to be one thing everyone is over looking. Most people are now just getting rid of there first laptop. the laptop they got when they got rid of the desktop. to get rid of there desktops they got pretty powerful laptops. So they where big and heavy and most people hat carrying them around. So what are allot of people doing. Powerful desktop work station and portable nettoop for on the go. I've done this and many people I know have done the same.
hat = hated
hat != hated
hat < hated
hat >= hated
if me.hat.corners.count != 3:
print "It would not be my hat."
Conditional is superfluous, as this code precedes yours:
me.hat.corners = 3
me.hat.corners = 3
Even more superfluous!
:D
Is that a young Steve Ballmer in that photo?
Umm I was following the article for a while but then I think Ross missed the point. Why would Microsoft build higher requirements into their operating system? They don't make the hardware so they aren't losing any money there and as long as Windows 7 runs well on netbooks(which it does) they'll actually make bank off of more people buying cheaper netbooks. Heck I'm running the Windows 7 Ultimate RC on my Eee PC and it runs flawlessly so I don't see any way that MS would be losing money off netbooks.
Microsoft are not really losing money per se. They're just not making as much as they would like to. Yet it's their own fault. In order to win market dominance they had to diminish the biggest advantage Linux has: price. To this end they offered a significant discount on OEM licenses to Netbook manufacturers.
I think they already have, which seems to be what Ross is complaining about, and saying they need to make it be only for more powerful systems
Microsoft is a software company, whereas Apple is a hardware company (that happens to make software to drive the sale of their hardware, which they also sell (exclusively)). If Microsoft wants to remain relevant, they need to come out with one product.
Windows.
That Windows works on ALL devices, from smartphones, to netbooks, from media centers, to desktops, from workstations, to servers. Right now, Windows looks like this:
Windows Mobile (multiple versions, 6.1 prevailing at the moment)
Windows CE (some portable devices)
Windows XP (netbooks, some laptops/desktops)
Windows Vista (many laptops/desktops)
Windows 7 (possibly converging netbooks/laptops/desktops)
Windows Server
Microsoft needs to go back to the drawing board, and write a completely streamlined operating system, that scales to work as well on 300MHz with 128MB of RAM to 8 x 3000MHz with 16GB of RAM. It should be that if you're using a Windows device, then you're using one basic codebase of Windows, with simply different options available/exposed, depending on your resources.
Like most things Microsoft, Windows is a mess. Yes, Windows 7 is looking (and should be) nice, but keep that going up and down the line. I'm looking at you, terrible Windows Mobile platform.
Apple is a software company that is in the hardware business. Their computers use mostly the same components as any other PC, but you're paying for the experience the software gives you, or else people would buy Apple computers with Windows preloaded on them.
There are really just two versions of Windows:
NT (= XP, Vista, 7, Server)
CE (=CE, Mobile, etc.)
I think that once Intel pushes enough battery performance out of x86, WinMo will disappear and CE will be marginalized, probably still exist for its niche uses but for the consumer space it won't be relevant. 7 is an attempt to get rid of XP once and for all (and Vista), meanwhile it does still make sense to have a separate Server OS... even Apple does it.
What complete waffle, No modern OS should have to run on a 300Mhz CPU, phones have twice that !
When Windows 7 launches you'll have
Windows 7 (Desktops,Laptops, Netbooks, Net-tops, Media Centers)
Windows Mobile 6.1 (the latest version until 6.5 surfaces) which is built on CE
You seem to be under the marketing illusion that an iPhone runs OSX it doesn't, Apple themselves call it iPhone OS, if its the same OS why can't I install the same apps on either ? If you can't share software between the OSs then they are simply a marketing name.
@Paul
Apple has stated several times that they consider themselves a hardware company first, software developer second.
Apple barely has a separate server OS compared to Windows. They have a server license which grants you different support and the virtualization clause, and some special server applications (that are mostly CLI frontends), but the difference between OSX and OSX Server is three .mpkg files that you can retroactively bolt on to any regular install at any time.
Unless you're managing other OSX boxes or need something specific from the OSX Server Apps, the normal install will provide a sufficient *nix server environment.
I think the fact of the matter is that most people:
- Prefer inexpensive to expensive
I think the fact of the matter is that most people:
- Prefer inexpensive to expensive
People prefer to buy something that meets their needs. I think people are finally cluing into the fact that they don't need some monster laptop to write their emails and surf the internet. And when they finally come to that revelation there's other things to be gained like better battery life and portability.
IMO, Ross Rubin is confusing cause and effect. Microsoft is not threatened by netbooks running Windows XP because netbooks are successful; netbooks are succeeding because Windows XP is successful.
There's basically three components to any system: hardware, OS, and apps. Advances in high-end commodity hardware happen regularly, by loose corollary to Moore's Law (which was, of course, relevant to transistor count, not overall platform performance). Each advance creates overhead in processing capability, which then prompts both OS and apps to increase in functionality and/or bloat. Of course, the oldest hardware in general use is rendered obsolete when it can't run new OSes and apps with acceptable performance, so new (and more capable) hardware is purchased; this completes moving the "typical" system performance forward, and there's now overhead capacity available, so it repeats.
You get a sort of spiral this way, and it keeps the PC-focused hardware vendors, MS (for Vista), and app vendors (also MS for Office, but a wide variety of others, too) in business. If people stop upgrading hardware, OS, or apps, the spiral breaks, and the other two see a great reduction in upgrades; some or all vendors in all three areas are going to see very hard times.
The applications, to be sure, are [i]partly[/i] to blame; the idea behind netbooks, after all, was that some people's computing needs are simply information _access_ needs, and that internet connectivity is ubiquitous enough to afford making that access on-line only. Indeed, some netbooks are used just that way, with no real application demand. But HD video is a tempting application, especially with the growth of "netbook"-like machines to larger and higher-res screens, and gaming has never gone anywhere either. If the OS upgrades had kept rolling, 1.6GHz P4 would never have been viable.
With Vista, Microsoft finally managed (inadvertently) to break its end of the upgrade spiral. For whatever reasons (there were some technical issues, and a lot of simple bad-rep spreading), people didn't upgrade to Vista like they were expected to, even, for a while, on new high-end systems. As a result, the "netbook" took off not only as the intended dumbed-down internet terminal, but also (with an "old" OS that had unforeseen longterm viability) as a mainstream computing platform.
The solution? It's not splitting the OS into high-end and low-end versions, and maintaining the split; as long as XP (or Win7, if it runs acceptably on current netbooks) is available, it will be used, and if availability is cut off without a successor fitting current low-end hardware, Linux _will_ see a surge in this segment. As long as you have the vast difference between netbook and high-end desktop performance widely available to consumers, you _will_ have problems keeping the low-end moving, and (especially in this economy) keeping your mid-range customers from falling into the low-end, too.
The split has to be eliminated, and that means leaning on hardware manufacturers to offer more capable machines in netbook sizes that will run Win7 well, and letting existing netbooks run XP until it's EOLed. That way, the mildly-techy blogger types (who were responsible for much of the Vista-hatred among non-techies), who tend to value the compactness of netbooks as much as their low price, will do some _positive_ word-of-mouthing about Win7 running nicely on these intermediate machines, and get the low-end CPUs completely phased out before the XP EOL and/or Win8 launch.
For implementation specifics, I'd think some OEM discount on Win7 for machines with 2GHz CPUs (and maybe some other requirements, RAM, GPU, etc.) to get pricing cheaper than Win7 on current netbooks, and competitive with XP licensing on current netbooks. If MS really wants to set things on fire, but is concerned about starting a new bottom line (with 5 million models of netbooks all meeting the same specs) that'll cause the same trouble next year, make the discount a sliding scale by total machine size (W + H + D, smaller means more discount), and performance (via some standard benchmark, faster means cheaper), and maybe a few small, but significant, bonuses for touchscreens and such, and calibrate the scale quarterly off the average specs in the market (to avoid selling licenses for $5 in a year from now).
But of course, as a consumer, I'm quite _happy_ to have the spiral broken, so I hope they don't implement this.
am gonna guess you dont sms.
I bought a 10" netbook for 3 reasons.
1 Price was $400. if I drop and break my Apple laptop (which I did, case cracked) I am out $1,500.
2 Weight and size, I use it as an ebook I can comfortably take it to bed or recliner and read with a back lit screen can read with lights out (no need to buy and power a separate light like Ebooks) great font size and page layout control of novel.
3 An affordable emergency computer in case my Apple which I use for my business breaks.
You know, I am using #3 right now as my main laptops charger bunked out on me and I have the Acer Aspire D150 to back me up until i buy another charger (or laptop :P)
Microsoft should do what hexydes mentions, but then they are absolutely copying Apple, and I would argue that they can't win at that game. While MS is busy trying to rebrand the black-eye Vista as Win7, Apple has been working on Snow Leopard, which is all about paring down the OS to be even more streamlined for just such a low end to high end purpose. Just seems that Apple once again was aiming for where the puck would be, whereas MS is chasing their competitor, and not taking in their own view of where and what they want to become.
I'm always amazed that people still don't get this.
Different products for different markets is the exact reason MS has 10x the market share Apple has.
I don't want my mobile and my server running the same software.
Considering that Apple fans tend to be happy with whatever the mother ship gives them, I shouldn't be surprised that they have trouble thinking beyond those boundaries.
Some people have needs that can't be met by one-size-fits-all software.
@Jon
oh yeah, thAt's what unix is for sure. A Dumbed down, uncustomisable, one size fits all kind of OS
Nope, people don't ever customize Unix for their particular needs, ever.
You should try something else, you seem to be pretty bad at sarcasm.
Or maybe you got lost in the minutia of my post?
Most people (and by most people, I mean the vast majority of the entire world) are unwilling or unable to optimize Unix for their particular needs.
"Apple has partially addressed this issue by including, enhancing and promoting iMovie and GarageBand in its bundled iLife suite."
If Microsoft bundled in their own versions of these products, Europe would come out with the "monopoly card."
...except that the hardware vendors are allowed to bundle any software they want into their computer, not the software vendor.
just look at the example of IE in Win 7. MS isn't allowed to ship IE with the OS, but hardware vendors can.
looks like u missed the concept there.
Yes in the Windows world it's Adobe etc. who market the high end software for high end hardware, why would Microsoft care they want to sell Windows.
If they dont want to canablize any sales they should add ultraportibles with nice specs to the list.
any decent netbook size computer cost over $2000 just lower the prices of those and let those take on notebooks while having the cheap netbooks and the bottom.
200-600 cheap netbooks low specs
600-1000 netbook size ultraportibles with great specs
800 & up gaming notebooks/allinones/desktops
its a win win some will buy the cheap computers and others will buy the decent spec computers and some will buy the best ones available.
I know we're toying with replacing all of our devices with thin clients and thin client notebooks at my work. It makes sense to me, everyone is always connected to our servers, only working on our servers so there is less chance of stealing company data, virus', and people doing personal stuff on business computers.
You're right Microsoft made Vista to please hardware sellers and look where that got them, they want to sell OS licenses this time, people who want to upgrade their present system and not buy a new one.
Apple have to care because they make their profit off their hardware, the better you buy the more they make. But if Windows 7 runs nice on a netbook and nice on a top end system Microsoft get a profit regardless.
I'm not really sure what he's trying to say in the article it's quite a ramble.
The little fish eating big fish analogy is good but is actually happening in the natural environment.
Humans target the big fish, less big fish to prey on small fish, small fish multiple and overwhelm the remaining big fish (which by the way are the smaller of the big because they are either young or less targeted).
In the meditaranian (sp) and atlantic this is in full swing. The most talked about incident was the jellyfish rampage which destroyed a massive salmon farm off Ireland. The jellyfish are outbreeding due to lack of predators and warmer water allowing for multiple breeding seasons.
So in IT the humans started killing off the desktops which allowed for a population surge of laptops, but then smaller devices had room to evolve and are now gnawing on the laptops. In the end we will have an ocean full of little devices all consuming the output of very large production class devices with a low population.
A side effect will be the dumbing down of the user, already in full swing. Similar to the 'car heads' - in the golden days a hotted up car meant it had custom machining, now it means it's a toy with pin stripes, a string of meaningless numbers and a poorly working exhaust. The rest don't bother and the very few build race cars.
The eternal n00b wins the day and the cool n00bs add silly lights and bitch about part numbers.
Just a hunch but I get the feeling that the computer industry has been overselling to the consumer for several years now. I think that the majority of consumers out there (ie. not anyone that reads these blogs) can get everything they want out of a computer in a netbook.
You can add hardware intensive features to an OS but it would be difficult to show its value with a higher price unless it is something that compelled the consumer to buy it in the first place.
When I look at what the majority of people I know do with the computers they own ... I have to agree with you. Most find onboard sound, onboard graphics and free software ... more than adequate for their needs. Face it ... unless you're into content creation, transcoding, hd or pc game play- you just don't need all that muscle. This is the little econobox that's good for most of your pc commuting.
"now is the time for Microsoft to start cashing in some of its R&D investments in new input methods, user interface, media processing and artificial intelligence to build more into Windows that requires advanced hardware."
In other words, you have no idea what possible application we can find for the advanced hardware coming out so you're throwing out buzzwords. AI? Really? I'd love to hear of some examples.
This is a problem that faces every industry, but is certainly becoming a major problem for the computer industry. My $200 Dell Mini 9 running Ubuntu does everything I need it to (for most people that would be "my old Windows XP Pavilion or Inspiron"), how do I justify a new Core i7 machine with Windows 7?
I'm glad to see Ross has no new ideas - Microsoft and Apple are in the same boat.
Agreed.
Consume, Create, Serve.
And it had to happen to computers, it's happened to all the other tool/trade industries.
As for i7 and friends. The Pentium 200mhz MMX and then the P3450 is where it started to cap out for consumption (includes business). Games and HD aside which are better delivered using dedicated chips. Obviously content creation needs much more but even that is starting to cap for audio/video, especially as GPU processing takes hold for rendering and transcoding, current gen mid to high will suffice; with only 3d and effects the areas which still need more or specialized research and film spec.
The imposed upgrade spiral is dying in the ass, finally.
Vista/W7 does have a very resource hungry app under the hood - Windows Media Center. Why M'soft don't publicise this more I have no idea. I have it linked to an HD satellite card and a 1080 TV and, as well as music, DVD's and photos I mainly do all my TV viewing and recording through this very reliable, versatile, good looking and relatively well designed system.
OK maybe you've got to be a bit of a geek to set it all up but then I'm not the only one. They used to sell a nicely designed remote to go with the system but now they've dropped that in favour of an expensive keyboard - weird.
There are some people out there who think there's something wrong with creating operating systems that can run on weaker hardware. Let me rephrase that. There are some people out there who thinks there's something wrong with creating operating systems that can run on ANY hardware.
Operating systems aren't computer games. If you 'need' a high-end computer just to be able to run an operating system on it what are you going to use it for? Watching screensavers? There's something seriously wrong with the assumption that people need to have powerful machines for running operating systems. Some people might not remember this, but operating systems are for operating the darn machine.
A good operating system knows how to adapt to its physical system as long as the machine has all or most of modern interfaces for the operating system to latch on to. It's fully possible to use advanced OS techniques in platforms aimed at weaker hardwares. Last time I checked Windows systems weren't better than Linux or OS X in terms of engineering. People just need to come to terms with the fact that Vista in the beginning was a marketed product, not an engineered product.
As for people talking about marketing netbooks for third world countries, don't kid yourself. Sure, the hip urbanites in China and India will gobble them up, but last time I checked those guys were richer and had faster internet than an average U.S. citizen. The poor populations of third-world countries still swear by big beige boxes that are one fifth the price of netbooks (or given away for free, actually). Not to mention netbooks are designed as secondary computers, and lot of third world computing structure still relies heavily on physical medium like cd to transfer information.
Netbooks are results of semi tech-savvy consumers in developed nations realizing they don't need 4GB RAM and 3D acceleration to view the youtube and update their facebook profiles, contrary to what MS and others had been forcing them to believe with lazy engineering.