Engadget HD Podcast 174 - 01.19.2010
By Trent Wolbe 
posted January 19th 2010 1:01PM
posted January 19th 2010 1:01PM
We're still catching up on all the none CES news that came out during CES and one item was of a favorite topics around here; the success of Blu-ray. To make things more interesting though we brought on a guest, Jeremy Toeman, who although agrees shares many of our same values, thinks Blu-ray is floundering -- you can just imagine where this discussion goes. After we get back to the normally schedule program, we cover the funny Lexicon Blu-ray story, as well as Disney and Netflix, Comcast's ugly new guide, and the cold fusion equivalent of the HDTV industry. Finally we close with a talk about how much fun we had being a part of HD Nation.Get the podcast
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Hosts: Ben Drawbaugh, Richard Lawler
Guest: Jeremy Toeman
Producer: Trent Wolbe
Program
00:00:34 - Comments from Engadget HD Podcast 173 - 1.13.2009
00:01:55 - Theaters brought in more cash than Discs last year
00:05:45 - Blu-ray sales were up 67 percent in 2009
00:29:30 - Poll: Will you buy a 3D HDTV?
00:50:38 - Lexicon busted passing Oppo off as a $3500 Blu-ray player
00:53:37 - Disney renegotiating Starz deal, might pull movies from Netflix streaming
00:56:30 - FCC backs off talk of forcefully reclaiming spectrum from TV broadcasters
00:57:54 - Comcast's guide software adds brains, but beauty remains elusive
01:00:45 - LPD display tech from Prysm uses lasers, phosphors, groovy Flash intros
01:03:31 - Check us out on the latest episode of HD Nation
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3D TVs will be the next Wii, everyone will have one and no one will use it.
One thing for sure the amount of original 3D content will be eclipsed by the hours of 3D jabber on this podcast.
Why couldn't 4K be the next big thing? even upconverted 4K would be better than something that no one will want to use. Having conversations with your friends or family with those glasses on are going to be silly. All this hype for a couple of movies and\or games a year? Stop the madness and go dust off your Wii.
@dslate
Sports and games will push 3D. I am going 3D mostly becomes of gaming can look pretty amazing and it would be cool to watch sports in 3D. I do think it will take off once you don't need the glasses. The technology is there, but it's not that great, but it will as it evolves better.
Where the pipe is for make the HD streaming content "dream" a reality? As long as the ISP's and content providers have conflicting business interests I don't see anything coming over the internet replacing BD, ATSC, or my HD cable subscription anytime soon.
@andy vt
Both want to sell content, but yeah if the trend of advertising dollars doesn't continue to dwindle, there's no reason for providers to change.
That was probably one of the best discussions I've heard on the show. This brings me back to the days when Matt was on the show. I thought everyone raised excellent points (as Ben and Richard usually do), and then Jeremy added a more consumer-focused perspective to balance the conversations.
I think the key to the Blu-ray adoption discussion is defining what "success" means. Most of the time when I'm shouting back at the iPhone while I'm in my car listening to the podcast it's because *I* think of "success" as 'near or surpassing DVD unit sales plotted on the same cycle since it's release'. (This explains a lot about the perspective I normally hear - it's because you don't expect success anywhere near this level.) A lot of the supporting arguments I hear for Blu-ray being successful on the show are always just looking at the dollars.
I agree that the lack of a 3D standard DOES matter (and to a less educated consumer maybe even MORE so). Any decision tree you put before a customer decreases their confidence and could delay potential buying decisions. This was true of 720p/1080i as well. With big ticket items like this, people just 'wait it out' if they aren't sure. And with 3D it's even more critical because since 3D is such a "value add" sort of feature. Buyer complacency may lead to incorrect analysis of sales data that people aren't interested in 3D.
Entertaining discussion all around - good stuff.
On gaming Ben, console gamers and crappy spam servers that infest CoD don't require much strats. Since PC gaming is dieing, I've stopped gaming.
Sorry, didn't know about the PS3. The site update killed the site for me at work. I came back to check out CES coverage.
Great show as usual, guys. I am a firm supporter of Blu-ray over streaming. I prefer to have tangible medium for movies as well as games. In addition to this, you want the best quality media with the lowest compression. You want this even more as you invest more money in your HT.
But then you talk about adoption of blu-ray by the masses. I honestly hope that 3D may help with mass adoption, regardless of if it is a gimmick or not. If Toy Story in 3D causes mass adoption of 3D TV and blu-ray, we win. Wii scenario or not, I'll take it.
Also - I am sure someone already said this, but it is 2010 now. I think Ben is still saying 2009 on most of the podcasts this year, and they are labeled 2009 as well
I have to totally disagree with the part about people buying less physical media because they can get it online/streaming. I think the issue isn't that you can get it online, it's more of an issue about people don't feel that want to re watch a movie. People buy movies when they feel that want to watch it more then once. People also use to buy movies to watch at home instead of just renting it because movies weren't always as pricey as they are now, and rentals were more expensive. Now, renting is dirt cheap and easier, you dno't even have to leave your own home.
I think this is being missed. And yes, streaming is up, disc sales are down, but again, people want to buy less but they aren't buying less because they can stream it. And streaming is going to go up because it really can't go down, it is still early.
I think your guest makes a great point in that he used to actively build a 'library' of physical media but with current and younger generations there will probably never be that same mindset of wanting to build that library of physical media. I recently tossed dozens of DVD's and have no intention of replacing any of those with more physical discs of any format.
@(Unverified)
But why did you toss out all of those DVDs? Because you replaced them with digital copies or because you never re-watched them to begin with?
Will younger generations just build digital libraries instead of physical ones, or will they not be buying at all?
@VICinCLT I tossed them because I never watched them. Don't get me wrong, i held on to a handful that seemed like I should maintain for posterity sake(mostly TV seasons) but I aquired them because DVD's were dirt cheap and it seemed like a good idea at the time. Now days I feel like if I want to see a movie (even an old one) it is so readily available that it simply makes more sense to reach out and grab it when the moment hits me rather than owning something that I will only ever watch a few times. If digital libraries were a real option and cheap enough that 'buying' something was marginally more expensive than renting (or being part of a subscription) then I would likely consider beginning a new collection in that space.
I think the key point that people who talk down Blu-ray as a format are forgetting (or maybe weren't adult consumers at the time to remember) is that going from videotape to DVD represented going from a *decaying media* to a persistent media. (Yes, I know DVDs are not literally a permanent media, but close enough for most people's definition of permanent.)
Of *course* people fled the land of the VCR for DVDs, because DVDs don't degrade each time you view the media. They don't snap in your player. They don't have to be rewound when you're done watching them. It's the same reason people went from vinyl and especially cassettes to CDs.
Blu-ray is an incremental upgrade, versus a complete game-changer. It also requires people owning an HDTV to appreciate the real differences between even an upsampled DVD and Blu-ray. That's *two* pieces of equipment someone needs to own, not just one.
Also, people can't replace their DVDs with Blu-rays that don't exist. The industry has lagged *far* behind in replacement titles for the current generation from how they churned out DVDs to replace VHS titles. There are titles that are being generated *new* that aren't produced in Blu-ray. And sometimes the availability of the Blu-ray version varies from country to country: the RSC's filmed version of its most recent production of Hamlet is not currently available in the UK on Blu-ray, but they *will* be producing it on Blu-ray for the US market because Blu-ray's market penetration here is so much greater.
Some people will always want physical media, just like people still buy CDs even though streaming music or downloads are available for purchase. But if the entertainment industry as a whole gets together and makes a *profoundly* greater quantity of titles available as downloads or streams than they make available on physical media, and can promise permanent availability of that digital content, that's where we're going to see next great game-change.
Great Podcast gentlemen. The discussion with Jeremy Toeman was particularly interesting and thought provoking. I think there is a strong correlation between screen size and format acceptance. Someone with a 60+ inch plasma like Ben is going to see a very obvious difference between DVD and Blu-ray. With a 27-inch CRT, DVD looks great. On an iPhone, streamed YouTube looks really good. Point being that "good enough," as Jeremy puts it, is often correlated to how the media is being consumed. I recently turned off Blu-ray on my Netflix account because the DVDs are more portable, and I tend to consume movies on laptops & mobile devices when I'm traveling. They are good even to watch on the variety of screen sizes throughout my house. If its a visually stunning movie that I really liked, then maybe I'll spring for the Blu-ray ("The Fall" is an excellent example of this).
@rlay001 I did the same thing on my netflix.... granted i only have a 42" hooked up to my ps3 so the picture quality difference is definitely not amazing enough to make it worth the cost and restritions on my watching habbits. I like to watch movies and tv series from netflix on my second screen downstairs by my gaming console so this just didn't work out for me to be limited to the main room and only blu-ray player in my house.
@(Unverified) Blu-ray is my "collecting" format. DVD is my rental format. If Netflix, Vudo, or Apple decided to do an unlimited HD streaming plan with newer titles (even with an additional 30 day window past the DVD release), I'd jump on board.