Cringely's Projection about iPod and iTunes is Off

Robert Cringely makes a guess about the future of iTunes and iPod based on the following information: "And 10.4 gives us a peek at another evolution of iTunes, which is the inevitable expansion of the system to carry additional audio file formats. Looking at the unused iTunes icons that shipped with your new version of 10.4, you'll notice icons for currently-not-supported ogg vorbis and Windows Media Audio (wma), as well as several others including a variety of video formats, too." Based on this information, he speculates "about the evolution of both iTunes and iPod. When Apple feels that the success of iTunes is absolutely assured, which will be shortly, they'll address the user complaint that iPod only supports AAC and MP3 audio by adding these additional formats, leading to increased iPod sales. And at the same time, the video icons strongly suggest that Apple will also have a video iPod this year."

What's the problem with this guess? Well, all the icons he is pointing out have been there since at least 10.3, if not since 10.2. I'm looking at them right now on a Panther installation. Maybe Apple will do these things, but there is no reason today, post Tiger release, to think that there is more chance than there was, simply because of a bunch of icons that have been there for a while.

I also don't buy the argument that Apple is going to move out of the iPod market. Just seems totally far-fetched with no basis in reality (by 'reality,' I mean $).