BlizzCon ticket drawing winners to be selected soon
on the BlizzCon forum that the opt-in period to get into the drawing for BlizzCon tickets is now over. Blizzard will be randomly selecting winners over the next few days. Account holders who get selected by the drawing will receive an email from Blizzard explaining how to purchase up to two BlizzCon 2008 tickets if they so desire -- so make sure your contact information is updated!
So now the forums are all abuzz as to what are the odds of winning the drawing. Let's do the math, shall we? There are 3,000 tickets available and they'll be offered by pairs to each drawing winner. We can assume there will be no more than 3,000 winning accounts (if every winner buys only one ticket -- unlikely) and no fewer than 1,500 (if every winner buys the max allowed: a pair). According to MMOGChart.com, Blizzard has about 10,000,000 subscribers right now. Okay, now, stay with me... Originally, 12,000 tickets were sold to BlizzCon. Let's assume that all the tickets purchased so far went to subscribers, rather than people who wouldn't show up on the subscription rolls. Let's also assume that each subscriber bought one to two tickets in the first batch. That means 6,000 - 12,000 accounts already have tickets, leaving 994,000 to 988,000 folks left for the opt-in drawing. With my mad Excel skills, it looks like if everyonewho didn't get BlizzCon tickets the first time around opted in to the drawing, you've got a 0.015% to 0.030% chance to get one of those sweet emails in the next few days.
Since it's unrealistic to assume that everyone opted in, I'd say you have a better chance than that. However, keep in mind that in order for you to even have a 1% chance of winning the drawing, only about 150,000 accounts would have had to opt-in. No matter how you slice it, good luck!
