Former Xbox Europe VP says consoles will be dead in 5-10 years
By Nilay Patel 
posted Mar 28th 2008 8:31PM
posted Mar 28th 2008 8:31PM
The last time we heard someone proclaim the death of the game console, it was EA's head of international distribution saying that an open gaming platform distributed within cable and satellite set-top boxes would take over within 15 years -- a prediction at which we laughed pretty heartily, given that most cable companies can't even manage to get a functional DVR out the door. So it's fairly surprising to hear the former VP of Xbox Europe make the exact same prediction, and bump up the timeline pretty dramatically: Sandy Duncan, who was with MS for 15 years, recently said that dedicated game devices "will die in the next five to 10 years," and that "most of this stuff will be 'virtualized' as web services by your content provider." Of course, Duncan's now with YoYo Games, which is a web-based gaming company, so he might be a little biased, but there's truth in his statement that the console gaming market is risky and that launch costs of new hardware are incredibly high. Still, as Duncan should know first-hand, it's an investment that can definitely pay off, and we think consumers are always going to demand choice and quality -- two things that aren't exactly synonymous with cable and satellite hardware.[Via GameDaily]
that picture looks like a mugshot
Was he VP of Creepy?
Its so obvious that Microsoft is going to make consoles dead.
This is no prediction. All they have to do is stop using discs.
So, if you're a betting man, which sounds more likely:
The end of console gaming in less than a decade, or Playstation 4?
I got one word for web-based gaming: Crysis.
I second what superfresh said. I love how everyone thinks digital distribution is right around the corner. Are you kidding me? Our network infrastructure is garbage. Way too latent to appeal to the instant gratification culture we've all come to know and love (in one way or another).
Why does that picture look like a mug shot? Is he going to murder the consoles and GET 5-10 years?
my comcast dvr died twice and freezes due to inadequate factory cooling.. Next we'll hear how they're throttling everyones connection so they can stream games better.
Interesting we both have the same name...anyways
The one thing I will say Time Warner Cable actually can do right is roll out a functional DVR that works almost flawlessly...I was skeptical of Scientific Atlanta boxes after the first one I had but their new DVR's pwn for an additional 5.95 on my bill a month...especially when I'm visiting my family back in Florida and their shitty Motorola (thanks Comcast!) boxes can't even change the aspect ratio for our 46" Samsung HDTV (and no, its not because it's connected via HDMI and it autoadjusts...the motorolas just don't let you change it at all)
I really have nothing to add, other than being the third Dave here.
yes. amazing , in a world populated by billions we'd have at least three daves.
And yet, only one jacquerr... beard scratchingly strange....
dint i see that guy on to catch a predator ... Perv !
I don't think this idea would go over well with the gaming industry, and I can't see consumers giving up consoles for something like this.
Hint: most of us like quality games.
There will never be "one platform to rule them all".
Game consoles are each developed with tremendously different philosophies behind them and are typically dedicated to running games in line with that philosophy.
A cable set top box that allows people to download games would definately be challeneged by another companies set top box which offers more or does things slightly differently. Thus, you'd end up having another console war on a platform which was primarily designed as a cable box.
Agreed, they've got it backwards. Cable companies will never be good enough at hardware or "not-fucking-customers-in-the-back-of-a-Volkswagen" to provide our games.
They will however eventually be relegated to providing services that our game consoles access...
No need to worry about it. Consoles will never disappear entirely, because no matter how good computers get, they offer too much variance in design and capabilities to be able to design a game that takes advantage of the computer you're using fully.
In order to have a complete experience of a video game, it has to be designed for a console with a specific set of standards in both spec and controls. When I buy a video game, I know that it will be compatible with the console I bought it for, and I know it will play the same way that everybody else's game plays.
Grey Acumen
Hence the problems associated with PC gaming...
From that photo, it looks like he'll be the one who kills consoles. O__o
ahahahaha :D
What a bad prediction
Possible, but I'll say not likely at all. Maybe if it was basically a case of having the consoles server side and playing the game over the net through a box that is just a network card/controller/video out hub, and they got the lag figured out.. I guess it would be a subscription based service or something, and you could just pay per hour and play whatever you want or do more of a MMO/xbox live subscription style and just pay a flat rate?
This is what t5 labs claims to have solved with patented technology: standard games played from central servers with low latency to dumb devices like set-top-boxes.
GameTap for your TV?
Meh!
" [...] cable and satellite set-top boxes would take over within 15 years -- a prediction at which we laughed pretty heartily, given that most cable companies can't even manage to get a functional DVR out the door."
Do not be short sighted. If some console would become commodity, adding to it a DVR capability would be a piece of cake. Needless to say that PS3 and 360 already feature similar capabilities.
Imagine that M$ start "licensing" its gaming platform to other set-top-box producers, supplying software and games. If HDTV would stay as it is, then next gen consoles would be cheap as dirt. Bundling them with other TV connected devices is only natural: who would refuse to have instead of 3 boxes under his/her TV only one?
I was thinking along the same lines...
Xbox already is a media center extender, media cen has dvr/pvr capabilities, the hardware portion is not that difficult.
telecoms are starting to roll out tv service, and cable are starting to offer phone. I can see a huge revolution in com networks coming over the next several years, especially in the US. It wont be long until the FCC reschedules all telecom/cable/isp/...any network kind of provider into one large group to be regulated again. To sort of level the playing field. Right now, different rules and laws apply to cable and teleco, due to the legacy of their infrastructure. But they are all offering the same services... a digital network, all linked to each other. There will be more than one tv provider in your town, not just the old school cable franchise, but a tru selection from any provider available.
how is this service supposed to work? it won't work over satellite because that would be one way. And not to mention all the hackers targetting these supercomputers - they'd be connected to the net, right?
I wouldn't laugh too hard. It's not that ridiculous of a idea.
k. people only play tetris 10 years later then.
SUS-PEkT
if they keep making good consoles, i'll keep buying them. not a chance i'll replace my gamepad with "web services".
blah blah blah
with that attitude its no wonder hes the "former" VP of Xbox Europe.
He probably received a boat-load of shares for joining the company and comments like this are a great way to boost the share price in this slow economy. He can probably buy a new yacht next week after a few naive investors start buying in anticipation of the next big thing.
I see it working like this. You STIL buy a console from a company like MS or Sony or whatever, but instead of paying just a high amount of money initially for the console, you can get it "tied to" service such as comcast or mediacom or whatever. (verizon anybody?)
From there, your console drops in price up front, but you'd be on a two year contract or something for that cable service, which includes but isnt limited to, HDTV service, game downloads, DVR capability, etc. (All of which you would pay monthly for naturally.) This could also cut manufacturing costs for games which would maybe drive the price slightly down on that front... but probably not.
I dont see the big dogs backing out of the hardware business, or trusting some cable company to get good hardware to customers, however seeing them sign deals with the major cable companies is a definite possibility. The logistics would be a nightmare though. Which provider works best with which console? Which providor offers the best games? Will games be spread over multiple providors? One thing is for sure, it would FORCE the cable/sattelite companies to really start increasing that bandwidth.
I like this idea and this guys prediction, although maybe not spot on, is a cool step out of the box.
Considering MS has spent BILLIONS on the Xbox, i doubt gaming of any kind will continue without some main company running the show...
-Taylor
"Today’s video games publishers (Nintendo are the exception) are risk averse, formulaic and predictable. The vast majority of publishers are also seriously restricted by their distribution channels. Retail doesn’t take risks and makes no identifiable contribution to the value chain, so you’ll need to pay a lot of money to get something new and innovative into the shops. For sure online retailers can offer more of a “long tail” approach to retailing, but the real innovations are being driven using the internet to drive innovation, not distribution."
---------
See, the thing is, the man has a point, new ideas are VERY hard to get out there and successful without a huge budget, BUT... many would argue that Nintendo itself is risk-averse, formulaic, simple and predictable.
Casual gaming, no doubt there's a huuuge virtually untapped market here, but I think there will always be room for those who want a more engaging and challenging experience.
The industry may be changing, and I can definitely relate to QUICK 5-minute plays here and there. Games which are easy to learn and play (and quick to load, load times and the inability to bypass them are truly ridiculous on most games which I have always felt was in dire need of the chop) BUT I don't think the console fading away per se.
It's more likely the gaming market is growing, and accommodating more users. We have more choice and more innovation allowing to seep through. No doubt a lot of that choice and innovation will be driven by upstarts getting their feet wet in the digital distribution waters, and that is definitely a big part of future portables as well as current ones which all the console makers are embracing.
While using Nintendo's DS, I saw heaps of room for improvement as far as convergence goes. Not even a daily planner app by default. It could do sooo many things, seriously. It seemed unnecessarily restricted to me, so some (more) convergence here is inevitable in future hardware. PSP does a far better job here, but is still short. More convergence is definitely on the cards, too many devices are out there doing similar things, but convergence at the expense of usability and GAMEPLAY and battery life is sub-par.
Your average converged device just sucks for games in terms of playability, basic technology, cost, usability and choice, IMO. Unless things improve here tremendously, my wallet will be voting for the simplicity and usability of dedicated (portable) consoles (which I prefer over regular consoles).
Of course they will do more as time goes on, that really is inevitable, and those who reap the rewards will be those with strong hardware and software ties, IMO. Just like they do now.
Halfway through the second part of the interview sounded like a huge advertisement to me, too. I suppose he believes what he's saying, but it could be interpreted the other way too :)
No they're not.
whatever timespan these people predict just multiply it by 5 times and it will all make sense
Sounds like he's a little bitter. Then again, who wouldn't be, going from a high-up job at Microsoft to heading a nobody company called Yo-Yo.
the thing is called a tv, it's what will kill consoles in fifteen years...
5-10 yeras? does that mean the ps3 killed console gaming?
No, just themselves
First off, 5 years is way too soon. But it will happen, no question about it.
I guess it's not surprising that many don't understand how this will work. It's simple. Imagine a gaming "system" that if you bought it would cost over $1,000,000. Incredibly powerful logic and 3D rendering capabilities. But you don't buy it for a million. You pay $xx.xx a month to access it. The amazing machine sits in a server room somewhere - not your living room. You, along with many other subscribers, connect to it with your 1gbps Internet connection. 99% of the processing is done on their end. Pre-rendered data is streamed to you instantly, while your local "console" (think of some small adapter-looking device - DisplayPort on one end, WiFi antenna on the other) is little more than a dumb video streamer.
Say you're playing Madden 2018 on EA's service. They use a platform developed by Microsoft. Then you pull up your menu and play Super Mario Brothers 80. That's direct from Nintendo on a platform they developed. Your "console" will work with either. Maybe some games require a special controller or other input device, but that's about it.
This is where we are headed. Tower Records are all closed down now. Blockbuster is next. After that it will be Gamestop.
What does a VP know about anything besides running a company? Further more he was the VP of the XBOX in Europe! The only decisions he would have made is with continuing to make money for MS in Europe for the XBOX, this is the last person you should be asking about the future of gaming, what's his back ground? in branding and marketing I'm sure, even worse his probably got a business degree or got an MBA somewhere, these people think they know it all, but the truth is they are all delusional.
apple sucks.
"but there's truth in his statement that the console gaming market is risky and that launch costs of new hardware are incredibly high"
Shhhhh. Don't tell this to Nintendo, they apparently missed that memo.
duncan... Yo-yo!
Uh Comcast can barely provide me with a reliable internet service, I sure as hell am not going to expect a reliable console.
power cycle your modem and router once a month i\nstead of calling in and bothering us. ok. that will keep your net fast. also this time next year comcast will have already implimented their 100Mbs service so chiiiill.
Don't worry, I gave up calling in, I'm always told everything is fine even when the entire area starts having problems simultaneously. I suppose it only happens once a year, but I wish they'd at least admit there's a problem instead of telling me everything is fine.
Anyone ever played with a Duncan Yo-Yo? Ironic, eh?
I think the debut of Windows Vista has helped to secure the future of console gaming.. at least until Windows 7 comes out and proves that messing with what works only makes it worse...
i predict 1 more console generation.
this cant go on, computers are WAAY more practical in terms of gaming.
in 10 years im sure computer technology will be advancing so fast that having a single console with the same technology for 2 years is gonna SUCK.
and its already happening with the 360 moving on to a new processor, and the ps3 even getting a 45 nm die shrink.
my guess is that in 2 or 3 years another badass generation of extremely powerful consoles (what would they call the new xbox... DUDE xbox^3? and playstation4? they need a new name) will come out, but after that i just dont see it surviving.
but hell i could be 100% wrong
Sounds to me like you're one of the die hard PC fanatics a bit pissy because you have to upgrade every 12 months to play newer games, while console gamers don't.
Enjoy your looking at the back of boxes and sighing when the minimum specification is too high for your PC.
sorr bud but ive got a pentium D and a 7900gts with 2 gigs of ram and it performs PERFECT.
He means the XBOX will be dead as a console and that he will be buying a PS4. LOL I betcha!
The console may not die, but simply evolve into something that would no longer represent what used to be known as a console
Step 1: Internet Connection
Step 2: Improved Aiming and Controls
Step 3: Customizable parts
Oh wait, that's a computer.
It's not so much that settops will replace consoles so much as consoles will envelop settops.
Take a look at the Xbox Live service. I can download games, rent movies, watch television shows...
It would be a stretch to see settops competing with game consoles, but it wouldn't take much for my xbox to take over my television programming.
The AVGN should have a dump on him.
Chris Hanson: "Sandy Duncan? AIM Screename: fuckDemConsoles? Why don't you have a seat over there."
This idiot actually gets paid, my god.
Sure the cable companies would love a system like this. Sattelite wouldn't really work. They would charge $20 a month for game box rental on top of the $10 for the cable system, maybe $10 more for HD. So you are paying $40 a month to rent a box. In one year you will pay $480 to rent a box from the cable company. Sounds great.
That is why the cable companies killed cablecard. Imagine if you were allowed to buy a cable card for $100 that would work with any cable system. The cable company wouldn't be able to keep charging you for something that has been more than paid off 2 or three times.
I guess in 5 years there will be this great system where everything is processed on central servers and your box will just decrypt the feed. There will be no input lag whatsoever and gigabytes of information will flow every second into your house. Nobody will actually go buy anything anymore and just have everything delivered straight to thier computerized systems.
Wait wasn't that supposed to happen before and didn't that lead to the biggest stock crash since 1929. The system to make this possible is not in place and will not be for quite some time. Unless companies get off thier collective asses and bring us true broadband at a fair price, plus cut out price gouging at every turn the consumer will never pay for it over a closed system like a console.
Maybe a console "crash" in 15 (which I seriously and highly doubt), but dead?? Though he might be on to something, I think he's on something as well.
It's only the beginning of HD gaming... given that in 15 years 1080p will be mainstream (anywhere from small to big screens)... consoles themselves will have the same resolution (I'm betting that if the big N hasn't stopped rehashing its old libraries by now, it never will - I honestly prefer the classics over rehashes any day though - to each their own.. a lil' off, now where were we?)... However it's all in features, and what you stick onto (or in?) the console that makes it live or die (either software or hardware, take your pick.)
Now, what my actual point is... companies are always filing patents, and always building off new technologies that emerge *daily*... Engadget wouldn't exist if that weren't true (well it would, only, tech news just wouldn't be posted 5-10+ times daily ;) ) Given that, would consoles die in 15 years? PS3 will probably last for 7 years (maybe nore, who knows... PS1's were still being sold in retail about three years back); I could see the 360 going on for the same amount of time - since it is in the same generation; And Nintendo will follow its own trend (which isn't a bad thing... it's family/young/social oriented)
In 7 years: whatever "they're" testing today will be there tomorrow. The technology itself will die, yes - because technology updates every so often (neat stuff I say)... consoles are just getting more room to play in!
Older games are always fun to play on for hours on end... so it's not just what's "in the box", but: what's in the game itself. Oldskool rocked (and still does) for a reason ;)
Hey, I've had my NES for twenty years now, and it's still not dead... I doubt all of my current consoles will be dead in ten years :p
Sandy Duncan AND Duncan YoYo? Oh Engadget, you make it too easy. Next, you're going to tell me that his middle name is "doughnuts!"
But yeah, this guy is a moron. Bill Gates made the exact same prediction in a computer magazine fifteen years ago, and look how well that worked out for him!
Indeed...
I think the guy is probably correct, the various network owners need new services to extract maximum value from their networks and I include digital and optical TV network delivery systems (Advertising revenue their traditional income stream is falling fast) and there is more money in distributing games over a network than selling them via DVD.
Dedicated consoles are already dead. We have entertainment systems that play games, movies, music and more...
Wasn't this obvious years ago? It won't DIE so much as merge into the set-top box, in much the same way as cell-phones merged with PDA's. Network, cable and telephone companies merge. XBOX and PS3 will continue to incorporate multi-media capabilities, and grow their network-services brands, which is where the money is at. Games will become subscription channels.
Here's what your magical, grand central games server would have to do:
Push out a unique, 1080p signal to 50 million people or more simultaneously. That's 50 million individual 1080p signals.
Do all the graphics work to make every one of those 1080p signals indistinguishable from a regular HD broadcast for each gamer and do all of that in real-time. (That is what people will expect from console-based games in 5-7 years, if current advances in processing/graphics power continue. Do you remember the quality of the graphics on the PS1?)
Then think about whether you could build a back-end system like that? In a few years, if you spent $1 billion I suppose it could be possible. Not a killer figure in relation to the costs of building a new console from scratch.
But even if you do build the Data Room From Hell, the true killer is network capacity. Where are the fiber optic cables as thick as a bus running all over the country to support that kind of insane bandwidth? The internet backbone couldn't handle that kind of traffic, let alone the last mile.
If you want to play pong or minesweeper, the cable box will have you covered. Don't hold your breath waiting for "Call of Duty 8 featuring Direct Neural Interconnection" as a channel on your cable box.
The current generation of console games works because they are using a distributed model. Each console does the graphics work for one user and so the processor demand doesn't scale as additional users are added. The smart client in the console also means relatively low bandwidth requirements. The local machine just needs the location and the actions of the other players, it does all the processor intensive animation work locally. That model fits best with today's infrastructure as well as tomorrow's. It isn't going away anytime soon. You are going to see at least two more iterations of XBOX or Playstation and probably more than that.