Former Xbox Europe VP says consoles will be dead in 5-10 years

The last time we heard someone proclaim the death of the game console, it was EA's head of international distribution saying that an open gaming platform distributed within cable and satellite set-top boxes would take over within 15 years -- a prediction at which we laughed pretty heartily, given that most cable companies can't even manage to get a functional DVR out the door. So it's fairly surprising to hear the former VP of Xbox Europe make the exact same prediction, and bump up the timeline pretty dramatically: Sandy Duncan, who was with MS for 15 years, recently said that dedicated game devices "will die in the next five to 10 years," and that "most of this stuff will be 'virtualized' as web services by your content provider." Of course, Duncan's now with YoYo Games, which is a web-based gaming company, so he might be a little biased, but there's truth in his statement that the console gaming market is risky and that launch costs of new hardware are incredibly high. Still, as Duncan should know first-hand, it's an investment that can definitely pay off, and we think consumers are always going to demand choice and quality -- two things that aren't exactly synonymous with cable and satellite hardware.

[Via GameDaily]

[wasabi @ Mar 28th 2008 8:35PM]

that picture looks like a mugshot

[Jagster @ Mar 28th 2008 10:08PM]

Was he VP of Creepy?

[ReggieXuk @ Mar 29th 2008 7:04AM]

Its so obvious that Microsoft is going to make consoles dead.
This is no prediction. All they have to do is stop using discs.

[superfresh @ Mar 29th 2008 10:17PM]

So, if you're a betting man, which sounds more likely:

The end of console gaming in less than a decade, or Playstation 4?

I got one word for web-based gaming: Crysis.

[JCA @ Mar 31st 2008 1:33AM]

I second what superfresh said. I love how everyone thinks digital distribution is right around the corner. Are you kidding me? Our network infrastructure is garbage. Way too latent to appeal to the instant gratification culture we've all come to know and love (in one way or another).

[James Scott @ Mar 28th 2008 8:35PM]

Why does that picture look like a mug shot? Is he going to murder the consoles and GET 5-10 years?

[Dave @ Mar 28th 2008 8:39PM]

my comcast dvr died twice and freezes due to inadequate factory cooling.. Next we'll hear how they're throttling everyones connection so they can stream games better.

[Dave @ Mar 28th 2008 9:16PM]

Interesting we both have the same name...anyways

The one thing I will say Time Warner Cable actually can do right is roll out a functional DVR that works almost flawlessly...I was skeptical of Scientific Atlanta boxes after the first one I had but their new DVR's pwn for an additional 5.95 on my bill a month...especially when I'm visiting my family back in Florida and their shitty Motorola (thanks Comcast!) boxes can't even change the aspect ratio for our 46" Samsung HDTV (and no, its not because it's connected via HDMI and it autoadjusts...the motorolas just don't let you change it at all)

[Dave @ Mar 28th 2008 10:10PM]

I really have nothing to add, other than being the third Dave here.

[jacquerr @ Mar 29th 2008 9:44AM]

yes. amazing , in a world populated by billions we'd have at least three daves.

[Joe @ Mar 29th 2008 11:09AM]

And yet, only one jacquerr... beard scratchingly strange....

[Jon @ Mar 28th 2008 8:40PM]

dint i see that guy on to catch a predator ... Perv !

[o29 @ Mar 28th 2008 8:44PM]

I don't think this idea would go over well with the gaming industry, and I can't see consumers giving up consoles for something like this.

Hint: most of us like quality games.

[Flashpoint @ Mar 28th 2008 9:18PM]

There will never be "one platform to rule them all".

Game consoles are each developed with tremendously different philosophies behind them and are typically dedicated to running games in line with that philosophy.

A cable set top box that allows people to download games would definately be challeneged by another companies set top box which offers more or does things slightly differently. Thus, you'd end up having another console war on a platform which was primarily designed as a cable box.

[Mr. Funk @ Mar 28th 2008 10:48PM]

Agreed, they've got it backwards. Cable companies will never be good enough at hardware or "not-fucking-customers-in-the-back-of-a-Volkswagen" to provide our games.

They will however eventually be relegated to providing services that our game consoles access...

[Grey Acumen @ Mar 29th 2008 12:50AM]

No need to worry about it. Consoles will never disappear entirely, because no matter how good computers get, they offer too much variance in design and capabilities to be able to design a game that takes advantage of the computer you're using fully.
In order to have a complete experience of a video game, it has to be designed for a console with a specific set of standards in both spec and controls. When I buy a video game, I know that it will be compatible with the console I bought it for, and I know it will play the same way that everybody else's game plays.

[Sam Winter @ Mar 29th 2008 7:18PM]

Grey Acumen

Hence the problems associated with PC gaming...

[Biomech @ Mar 28th 2008 8:44PM]

From that photo, it looks like he'll be the one who kills consoles. O__o

[madgamer @ Mar 28th 2008 8:47PM]

Possible, but I'll say not likely at all. Maybe if it was basically a case of having the consoles server side and playing the game over the net through a box that is just a network card/controller/video out hub, and they got the lag figured out.. I guess it would be a subscription based service or something, and you could just pay per hour and play whatever you want or do more of a MMO/xbox live subscription style and just pay a flat rate?

[the_ether @ Mar 29th 2008 8:24AM]

This is what t5 labs claims to have solved with patented technology: standard games played from central servers with low latency to dumb devices like set-top-boxes.

[Ignatius @ Mar 29th 2008 5:03PM]

GameTap for your TV?

[Homeboy @ Mar 28th 2008 8:50PM]

Meh!

[Ihar `Philips` Filipau @ Mar 28th 2008 8:51PM]

" [...] cable and satellite set-top boxes would take over within 15 years -- a prediction at which we laughed pretty heartily, given that most cable companies can't even manage to get a functional DVR out the door."

Do not be short sighted. If some console would become commodity, adding to it a DVR capability would be a piece of cake. Needless to say that PS3 and 360 already feature similar capabilities.

Imagine that M$ start "licensing" its gaming platform to other set-top-box producers, supplying software and games. If HDTV would stay as it is, then next gen consoles would be cheap as dirt. Bundling them with other TV connected devices is only natural: who would refuse to have instead of 3 boxes under his/her TV only one?

[Barbaric @ Mar 29th 2008 12:37PM]

I was thinking along the same lines...

Xbox already is a media center extender, media cen has dvr/pvr capabilities, the hardware portion is not that difficult.

telecoms are starting to roll out tv service, and cable are starting to offer phone. I can see a huge revolution in com networks coming over the next several years, especially in the US. It wont be long until the FCC reschedules all telecom/cable/isp/...any network kind of provider into one large group to be regulated again. To sort of level the playing field. Right now, different rules and laws apply to cable and teleco, due to the legacy of their infrastructure. But they are all offering the same services... a digital network, all linked to each other. There will be more than one tv provider in your town, not just the old school cable franchise, but a tru selection from any provider available.

[nik @ Mar 28th 2008 8:52PM]

how is this service supposed to work? it won't work over satellite because that would be one way. And not to mention all the hackers targetting these supercomputers - they'd be connected to the net, right?

[Conor Maher @ Mar 28th 2008 8:53PM]

ahahahaha :D

What a bad prediction

[Birch @ Mar 28th 2008 8:58PM]

I wouldn't laugh too hard. It's not that ridiculous of a idea.

[dvmrp @ Mar 28th 2008 9:01PM]

k. people only play tetris 10 years later then.

[KangMin @ Mar 28th 2008 9:08PM]

SUS-PEkT

[bo sneb @ Mar 28th 2008 9:09PM]

if they keep making good consoles, i'll keep buying them. not a chance i'll replace my gamepad with "web services".

[Simon P @ Mar 28th 2008 9:10PM]

blah blah blah

[rhcpsfan @ Mar 28th 2008 9:13PM]

with that attitude its no wonder hes the "former" VP of Xbox Europe.

[Bryan Thornsberry @ Mar 28th 2008 9:17PM]

I see it working like this. You STIL buy a console from a company like MS or Sony or whatever, but instead of paying just a high amount of money initially for the console, you can get it "tied to" service such as comcast or mediacom or whatever. (verizon anybody?)

From there, your console drops in price up front, but you'd be on a two year contract or something for that cable service, which includes but isnt limited to, HDTV service, game downloads, DVR capability, etc. (All of which you would pay monthly for naturally.) This could also cut manufacturing costs for games which would maybe drive the price slightly down on that front... but probably not.

I dont see the big dogs backing out of the hardware business, or trusting some cable company to get good hardware to customers, however seeing them sign deals with the major cable companies is a definite possibility. The logistics would be a nightmare though. Which provider works best with which console? Which providor offers the best games? Will games be spread over multiple providors? One thing is for sure, it would FORCE the cable/sattelite companies to really start increasing that bandwidth.

I like this idea and this guys prediction, although maybe not spot on, is a cool step out of the box.

[Taylor @ Mar 28th 2008 9:21PM]

Considering MS has spent BILLIONS on the Xbox, i doubt gaming of any kind will continue without some main company running the show...
-Taylor

[tekdroid @ Mar 28th 2008 9:28PM]

"Today’s video games publishers (Nintendo are the exception) are risk averse, formulaic and predictable. The vast majority of publishers are also seriously restricted by their distribution channels. Retail doesn’t take risks and makes no identifiable contribution to the value chain, so you’ll need to pay a lot of money to get something new and innovative into the shops. For sure online retailers can offer more of a “long tail” approach to retailing, but the real innovations are being driven using the internet to drive innovation, not distribution."
---------
See, the thing is, the man has a point, new ideas are VERY hard to get out there and successful without a huge budget, BUT... many would argue that Nintendo itself is risk-averse, formulaic, simple and predictable.

Casual gaming, no doubt there's a huuuge virtually untapped market here, but I think there will always be room for those who want a more engaging and challenging experience.

The industry may be changing, and I can definitely relate to QUICK 5-minute plays here and there. Games which are easy to learn and play (and quick to load, load times and the inability to bypass them are truly ridiculous on most games which I have always felt was in dire need of the chop) BUT I don't think the console fading away per se.

It's more likely the gaming market is growing, and accommodating more users. We have more choice and more innovation allowing to seep through. No doubt a lot of that choice and innovation will be driven by upstarts getting their feet wet in the digital distribution waters, and that is definitely a big part of future portables as well as current ones which all the console makers are embracing.

While using Nintendo's DS, I saw heaps of room for improvement as far as convergence goes. Not even a daily planner app by default. It could do sooo many things, seriously. It seemed unnecessarily restricted to me, so some (more) convergence here is inevitable in future hardware. PSP does a far better job here, but is still short. More convergence is definitely on the cards, too many devices are out there doing similar things, but convergence at the expense of usability and GAMEPLAY and battery life is sub-par.

Your average converged device just sucks for games in terms of playability, basic technology, cost, usability and choice, IMO. Unless things improve here tremendously, my wallet will be voting for the simplicity and usability of dedicated (portable) consoles (which I prefer over regular consoles).

Of course they will do more as time goes on, that really is inevitable, and those who reap the rewards will be those with strong hardware and software ties, IMO. Just like they do now.

Halfway through the second part of the interview sounded like a huge advertisement to me, too. I suppose he believes what he's saying, but it could be interpreted the other way too :)

[HOOPER @ Mar 28th 2008 9:35PM]

No they're not.

[Jagannath A @ Mar 28th 2008 9:41PM]

whatever timespan these people predict just multiply it by 5 times and it will all make sense

[Richie @ Mar 28th 2008 9:42PM]

Sounds like he's a little bitter. Then again, who wouldn't be, going from a high-up job at Microsoft to heading a nobody company called Yo-Yo.

[sinai @ Mar 28th 2008 9:52PM]

5-10 yeras? does that mean the ps3 killed console gaming?

[Jon Doe. @ Mar 28th 2008 10:11PM]

No, just themselves

[Sean O @ Mar 28th 2008 9:52PM]

First off, 5 years is way too soon. But it will happen, no question about it.

I guess it's not surprising that many don't understand how this will work. It's simple. Imagine a gaming "system" that if you bought it would cost over $1,000,000. Incredibly powerful logic and 3D rendering capabilities. But you don't buy it for a million. You pay $xx.xx a month to access it. The amazing machine sits in a server room somewhere - not your living room. You, along with many other subscribers, connect to it with your 1gbps Internet connection. 99% of the processing is done on their end. Pre-rendered data is streamed to you instantly, while your local "console" (think of some small adapter-looking device - DisplayPort on one end, WiFi antenna on the other) is little more than a dumb video streamer.

Say you're playing Madden 2018 on EA's service. They use a platform developed by Microsoft. Then you pull up your menu and play Super Mario Brothers 80. That's direct from Nintendo on a platform they developed. Your "console" will work with either. Maybe some games require a special controller or other input device, but that's about it.

This is where we are headed. Tower Records are all closed down now. Blockbuster is next. After that it will be Gamestop.

[Stewart @ Mar 28th 2008 9:53PM]

the thing is called a tv, it's what will kill consoles in fifteen years...

[Mark @ Mar 28th 2008 10:07PM]

apple sucks.

[Jon Doe. @ Mar 28th 2008 10:10PM]

"but there's truth in his statement that the console gaming market is risky and that launch costs of new hardware are incredibly high"

Shhhhh. Don't tell this to Nintendo, they apparently missed that memo.

[Mikey @ Mar 28th 2008 10:20PM]

duncan... Yo-yo!

[Reader @ Mar 28th 2008 10:20PM]

Uh Comcast can barely provide me with a reliable internet service, I sure as hell am not going to expect a reliable console.

[SOOPERGOOMAN @ Mar 28th 2008 10:34PM]

power cycle your modem and router once a month i\nstead of calling in and bothering us. ok. that will keep your net fast. also this time next year comcast will have already implimented their 100Mbs service so chiiiill.

[Reader @ Mar 28th 2008 11:08PM]

Don't worry, I gave up calling in, I'm always told everything is fine even when the entire area starts having problems simultaneously. I suppose it only happens once a year, but I wish they'd at least admit there's a problem instead of telling me everything is fine.

[Silivrenion @ Mar 28th 2008 10:29PM]

I think the debut of Windows Vista has helped to secure the future of console gaming.. at least until Windows 7 comes out and proves that messing with what works only makes it worse...

[SOOPERGOOMAN @ Mar 28th 2008 10:32PM]

He means the XBOX will be dead as a console and that he will be buying a PS4. LOL I betcha!