Entelligence: Digital video is still just too hard

Every Thursday Michael Gartenberg of Jupiter Research contributes an interesting item of gadget-related research data. Last week he discussed home networks, this week he looks at digital video:

The market for digital imaging is growing; sales of cameras and recordable drives used to archive and distribute content are up. Digital camera sales are particularly impressive: In a recent Jupiter Consumer Survey, over 30 percent of online consumers said they own digital cameras, and nearly a quarter of them said they plan to buy them. Even if some of those planning to buy are replacing existing units, this number represents an enormous market presence. Some in the industry have suggested digital camcorders are following the same path, but the growth-rate trend does not support this assumption. By comparison, recordable CD drives are a mature technology. Because most PCs ship with them, nearly one-half of respondents said they already own one, and the 10 percent who said they plan to buy them represent late adopters. At the other end of the spectrum, recordable DVD drives have the highest growth potential, with slightly more people saying they plan to buy them than already own them. Both digital cameras and camcorders are somewhere in the middle—a maturing growth phase. Plenty of room still exists for additional growth, but most consumers who want them already have them. As such, digital cameras are poised to exceed 50 percent penetration over the next five years, but digital camcorder ownership will not.

One of the reasons is that to really enable the benefits of a digital camcorder, one needs to be able to do something with the video footage. Cost and complication are significant barriers to adoption of digital video?and why many consumers don?t have the required hardware and software necessary to complete the value chain for digital video editing. Very simply, too many consumers say that ?I didn?t know I could so that? Conversely, many consumers are aware of digital video say or ?I knew I COULD do that but thought it was too hard for me to do?. Some new products are coming to market to address these very issues but for the time being, consumers are a lot more interested in digital still photography than in digital video recorders.

Question: Which of the following best describes your reasons for not viewing, editing, or sharing digital video today? (Select up to three.) Source: Jupiter/The NPD Group, Inc. Consumer Survey (4/02), n = 1,322 (online users who do not work with digital video, US only) ? 2003 Jupiter Research, a division of Jupitermedia Corporation.

Michael Gartenberg is vice president and research director for the Personal Technology & Access and Custom Research groups at Jupiter Research in New York. Contact him at mgartenberg@jupitermedia.com. His weblog and RSS feed are at http://weblogs.jupiterresearch.com/analysts/gartenberg.