Ask Massively: WoW killer revisited

Sorry I'm late, but my hard drive decided to try and break out of my computer case this week. Did I let such a disaster stop me from presenting my weekly edition of Ask Massively? Well, yes I did. As good as I am, I find it a wee bit difficult to bring forth my wit and wisdom to you without the benefit of a working computer. Now that I'm back and functional (no editorial comments, please) let us get down to business, which is gaming.

This week, we're going to revisit an old question. Sometimes it is wise to revise or even reverse an opinion based on new data, and this week presents us with an opportunity to do just that.

Hey Massively!

Now that Age of Conan has finally dropped and Warhammer Online is in the pipeline, how do you think World of Warcraft will maintain it's present level of mind share in the MMORPG space? Will new titles and expansions for existing games result in a net loss of available consumers for Wrath of the Lich King when it goes live?

-Curious

Um... Bingo?
(Pipeline? Level of Mind share? Who talks like that?)

Well curious, or can I call you George? I've been paying attention to some of the statements and opinions from players and fans of some of these upcoming titles, and opinions appear to be divided into 3 camps. Each of these mean different things, both for Blizzard and for Funcom and these lessons can and should be taken to heart by EA/Mythic if they want to have the kind of success that Age of Conan has enjoyed so far.

This first, and most obvious, group of opinions fall into the category of "Unabashed Fanboy". In this group, you have a smattering of characters ranging from the "WoW Suxx0rz" types to the "I've been a fan of Robert E. Howard since I was a little boy" folks. (note: there are a lot more of the former than the latter) This group is relatively easy to please as long as the game is stable and lives up to it's initial promise, "We're not a World of Warcraft clone." To that end, Age of Conan has done a fairly good job. Every MMO has some bugs and stability issues at launch, but AoC's launch went much more smoothly than their last well known MMO launch. What does this mean for Warhammer Online?

• Don't crash a lot.
• Have your content finished. If it isn't done, announce that it will be coming in a patch very soon.
• Make sure your code is thoroughly tested, you don't want bugs to turn your users off.
• Have enough infrastructure to get through a busier-than-expected launch phase.

While this would appear to be fairly obvious, these factors are about the only thing that will cause a "Unabashed Fanboy" to go elsewhere, or even back to their old game in order to wait for the next "Killer" to come around. Here are some signs that you may be chatting with an "Unabashed Fanboy" in your game of choice.

• Upon hearing a comparison to another game... "That game SUCKS. Don't even mention that here."
• "This is the greatest game ever! So much better than..."
• The player has some serious issues with another game, and will tell you (and everyone else) all about it in forum posts or OOC chat.

This group of players cannot be ignored easily. After all, Blizzard made their mark by catering to this crowd. (and even hired some of them...)

The next group of opinions form a group that I'll call "Gamers du jour". They'll play whatever title is "hot" until they get bored, or the next big thing comes along, and then they'll move on like locusts in a wheat field. A game's odds of keeping a "Gamer du jour" are very small, but possible if the content is engaging and the "treadmilling" is kept to a minimum. These are not your "end game" players, usually. They will pick up a game because it is new and shiny, then put it down as soon as something newer hits the shelves. Comments from this crowd usually sound like:

• "This game is too hard"
• "I'm too lazy to read the manual, how do I...?"
• "This game is just like "

If you have a lot of these players, it means that your game has been very successful at marketing itself and generating buzz. This is not, however, the type of gamer that you should listen to in order to make the improvements necessary to keep a game successful in the long term. Their ideas, if implemented, could greatly reduce the shelf-life of a game by eliminating many of the challenges that keep gamers interested in the long term. There is a fine line between challenge and senseless treadmill. Warhammer Online has a good amount of pre-release buzz out there, and I think they'll get more than a few players interested enough to pick up a copy and see what the fuss is all about. I'd probably lump myself in this category with respect to Warhammer. I'm curious, but I probably wouldn't play much past a free-trial phase.

Finally, you have the a hardcore base of players that genuinely likes your game and provides constructive criticisms that producers can use to make a game better over time. They're a hard crowd to find, and aren't the most vocal folks on message boards, but here are some tips for picking them out of a crowd.

• They write guides and other helpful information that others cry out to have "stickied" on the forums.
• They will play a class for several levels before complaining about any aspect of that class's game play, as opposed to the gamer who cries "Nerf ! They are OP in PvP" after their first PvP encounter.
• They write emails to the community relations staff to make salient points, and not long winded rants on message forums in order to get attention.

One of World of Warcraft's biggest competitive advantages is that the size of their player base means that they have a large number of these players. Constant improvement and feedback results in longevity for any product, but especially an MMORPG. If you stop listening to your players (Are you listening, Brad McQuaid?) your game will suffer for it. It is a little early for a new release to exhibit signs of a large number of these players, but early indications from Age of Conan are promising. I'd like to think of myself as belonging to this category of Age of Conan player, but I haven't had the time that I'd like to have to spend playing AoC, so taking on the label of "hardcore" is laughable.

What does this mean for our friends at Blizzard? Well, it means that my previous opinion hasn't changed. There is room in the marketplace for multiple successful MMOs. Age of Conan appears to be well on it's way to a successful run, but aside from the "Unabashed Fanboy" crowd and a fairly good sample of the "Gamer du jour" gang, I don't think Blizzard will see a big drop in subscribers. Many gamers, myself included, play more than one game, and there is ample room in a gamer's budget for World of Warcraft and Age of Conan. If Warhammer Online can have the same kind of successful launch that AoC enjoyed, it may be poised to make a bigger dent in World of Warcraft due to the similarity in genre and increased focus on PvP combat. (Sorry Blizz, PvP in World of Warcraft is just lame) In the end, there is room for all three games to be successful. As a market, we have evolved past the point where there is only room for one game at the top.

That's all I have for you this week in Ask Massively. If you would like to have your questions answered, feel free to leave a comment below, stop by our tip line, or send an email to ask AT massively DOT com. I'd like to thank the people of Nigeria for making me the wealthiest man on the planet thanks to all of the oil revenue that they needed to have transferred out of their impoverished country.