Blu-ray / HD DVD stalemate boosting interest in combo player?

Nothing like a little false hope to brighten your Saturday, right? Of course, we hope the current stalemate in the Blu-ray / HD DVD war actually yields a combo player, but after the on-again / off-again (and again) love affair with the idea, we're not holding our collective breath. Nevertheless, it seems that the current state actually doesn't have one format trouncing the other as many believed would happen after a few months unfolded. Essentially, consumers are "generally indifferent" to the two, and considering there's just seven more HD DVD titles currently available than BD titles, it doesn't look like one or the other will win on sheer studio popularity. While we've seen the Blu-ray-equipped PS3 outsell Microsoft's HD DVD drive 5 to 1, there isn't much substance in such a statistic, but apparently Taiwan-based manufacturers are rethinking their previous denials of unleashing a player that handles both discs. DigiTimes has it that Samsung is "planning to offer dual-format recorders that can record and play back BD and HD DVD movies," while Hitachi (a devout member of the BDA), is also "considering production of dual-format devices." They also went so far as to point out the obvious when noting that a "dual-format device would be more expensive than a single-format unit" -- but hey, it's likely cheaper than buying one of each, eh?

[Maestro @ Dec 16th 2006 4:25PM]

Why would anyone chose an inferior product?! Are you kidding? I can only assume you are not old enough to remember VHS versus Betamax, but Betamax gave a better picture AND lost the format war.

[Tony Rayo @ Dec 16th 2006 9:45PM]

You do know that Betamax provided a better picture quality and sound among other factors than VHS (that's why a form of Betamax is still used professionally). Price is what will make or break a format and the right advertising... most people don't do good research, so I think BD will be screwed. As far as me, I'm sticking to DVD for at least 2007. By the end of then I should be able to see where things are going from here on out.

- Tony R.

[Rohit Kapur @ Dec 16th 2006 2:44PM]

Well duh... They couldn't have expected either to take off like wildfire at their current rates. Big surprise that it's a stalemate! :-P

Anyway, it's good that they're both relatively sucking. Seriously better chances for a combo player. Imagine... PS3 and XBox 360 in one (somewhat)! ;-)

[doug @ Dec 16th 2006 3:10PM]

I recently did a 180 on HD and dropped some coin for a 42" Panasonic plasma. Hard up for HD content, since my cable company currently shorts us on HD channels, I decided to spring for a HD DVD player.

Price was the deciding factor between BRD and HDDVD.

I think there will be a fair number of those picking up HDTVs this holiday season doing what I did. Probably be a good time for the upconverting DVD players, too, since they tend to go for 1/5 of a HDDVD player and 1/10 of a BRD.

but anyway, I do hope a combo player comes along and keeps both formats going or studios drop their format exclusivity and publish in both.

[Steve @ Dec 16th 2006 3:52PM]

No kidding, I want that Chinese format to win! You know movies would be cheaper, the machine would more than likely be more readily "hackable", etc.

[I, Robot @ Dec 17th 2006 12:13PM]

I agree. EVD may not be sexy, but a 100 bucks to record 10 hours of HD content onto a .25 cent DVD --- sweet.

[Castle @ Dec 16th 2006 3:55PM]

combo player ain't happening, currently the DVD's 6C consortium takes ~5% from the retail price of the player and a percentage of each HD-DVD sold, Blu-ray takes a similar percentage in royalties.

A combo player would require royalties to both groups, which would make it less feasible, assuming the both consortium would allow the license to the combo player.

The reason why there were +/- combo players were because the major patent pool was still the DVD 6C patents and both formats were merely derivatives of the DVD format. Blu-ray/HD-DVD are entirely different patent pools and corporate consortiums.

Also, at this point, its far too early to tell, BRD and HD-DVD have only really been released for a few months to be called a stalemate.

[Chapman @ Dec 16th 2006 4:28PM]

Sure it would be good for movie companies to publish their titles to both formats, but this would cost more money. More movie companies have chosen blu-ray which is probably due to the storage capacity of the format. This means that more special features and the possibility to place entire TV series onto a single disc.

[Twist @ Dec 16th 2006 4:44PM]

I have never had interest in anything but a combo HD-DVD/BR player and until one format proves to be more popular than the other that is the way I will stay. I don't think that BR is going anywhere just because it has tons of potential for non-movie purposes. Combo players would give us the best of both worlds and it would leave the format choice in the content providers hands.

[Jackson 5 @ Dec 16th 2006 4:47PM]

Blu Ray has already won, it is just going to take people some time to realize it. The first reason Blu Ray won is that every single PS3 sold has a Blu Ray player in it. These HD-DVD players seem cheap right now because you can't get a PS3 anywhere, but once people are in the position where they can spend another hundred bucks and get something that does was more than play HD movies, it should not be a contest. Dell and Apple are supporting Blu Ray. Disney is too. Once the prices start coming down, the only thing that will matter is capacity. TDK has already made a 100GB Blu Ray prototype. That would be enough to fit all three original Star Wars films in HD on one disc. I don't think there is going to be any contest. Right now the HD-DVD consortium is subsidizing the hell out of their players just to make them somewhat competitive. By this time next year HD-DVD will have clearly lost. By this time two years from now they won't be on the shelves.

[Jon @ Dec 16th 2006 5:18PM]

Can i quote you on that?

[GiovanniMcAdoo @ Dec 16th 2006 5:56PM]

Paul
"What a horrible idea.
A player that can play one of the next gen formats AND regular DVDs is a good idea.
Putting blueray and HDdvd on the same box is just akin to prolong the format war.
Sony should just realize that their horrible proprietary formats are indeed HORRIBLE for the average consumer. They may have their places in different industries (betamax etc) but NOT in a consumers livingroom."

So according to you; the CD's you own have no busing doing in your home right? Oh yeah SONY was the primary pusher of CD.Oh those DVD's that seem to be destroying both HD DVD and Blu Ray' yup them too, SONY had a huge hand it that format too.. Before you talk; atleast know your facts.

[I, Robot @ Dec 17th 2006 12:22PM]

It has??? That's good to know. However, a Game System does NOT a format make.

[Paul @ Dec 16th 2006 5:17PM]

What a horrible idea.
A player that can play one of the next gen formats AND regular DVDs is a good idea.
Putting blueray and HDdvd on the same box is just akin to prolong the format war.
Sony should just realize that their horrible proprietary formats are indeed HORRIBLE for the average consumer. They may have their places in different industries (betamax etc) but NOT in a consumers livingroom.

[sean @ Dec 16th 2006 5:32PM]

i think the recent stats about the Blu-Ray in the PS3 outselling the xbox 360 HD add-on 5-1 shows that blu-ray is taking the lead. Sure everyone who bought the HD add-on bought it for movies, but everyone who bought the PS3 for games are also people who watch movies (everyone watches movies) and will now choose blu-ray without thinking twice.

I dont play games, but I'd buy the PS3 just for the Blu-ray if I could actually buy it. Is the HD add-on for the 360 in shortage (no). So once PS3s become readily available its going to make an even bigger difference.

[Jeffrey @ Dec 16th 2006 5:47PM]

But...
HD-DVD is currently superior. Both products on paper should be able to produce EXACTLY the same quality. HD-DVD has chosen to use its full 30GB and the superior AVC codec whereas Sony (god knows why) chose to start with 25GB but only the MPEG2 format for video as well as PCM audio. The PCM audio is superior but takes a lot of space and the decision by Sony to use 25GB/MPEG2 meant there simply isn NOT ENOUGH ROOM for maximum quality.

The proof is in the pudding and ALL the Blu-Ray and HD-DVD movies have been reviewed. Verdict? HD-DVD completely destroys Blu-Ray. Not only that, but the HD-DVD player which was half the price was superior to the Blu-Ray player. You can get a nice number of discs for the extra money.

If Sony had started using the new video codec that allows for at least 3X the space savings and initially stuck with Dolby Digital instead of PCM they could have pulled ahead of HD-DVD quickly.

The race is in the first leg so if Sony gets its act together the PlayStation 3 should really help their cause. The average consumer is relatively uneducated and is likely to assume that Blu-Ray and HD-DVD are "about the same" (which they should be).

Due to the above reasons, the race will remain heated. Hopefully the competition will force an increase in quality of the DVD's and hardware that will ultimately benefit the consumer. I fully expect to see combo Blu-Ray/HD-DVD discs though PLEASE don't come out with combo BD/HD DVD's! I noticed HD-DVD has come out with combo HD-DVD/DVD-Video for people who do not yet have high-def. This is an excellent move as long as the high-def content doesn't suffer.

Personally, I plan to BUILD a High-Def PC media player once the HDMI video cards and DVD players (BD/HD or combo) become cheap enough. Home Theater PC's have a LOT of advantages. They can do a lot more, can be repaired/enhanced easier and cheaper. They can play more formats and be enhanced/tweaked easily by software. You can use your PC as a DVR, stream movies and music to other rooms and more. The price? Once the components come down to a reasonable price building a Vista-based Home Theater PC will be very reasonable though not for everyone.

If Sony gets its Blu-Ray movie quality act together I'd consider purchasing a PS3 next year. (and for those that still wonder, no you can't modify a PS3 to play HD-DVD. They use the same lasers and codecs but the firmware in the players are not compatible though creating a combo reader wouldn't be that hard.)

If a good quality combo HD-DVD/Blu-Ray drops to $400CDN I'd be interested too. 2007 should prove to be the year that decides the war.

For more information, add Wikipedia to your upper-right browser search tool and look up blu-ray and start from there. For all the High-Def and player reviews go to www.dvdtalk.com

[GiovanniMcAdoo @ Dec 16th 2006 6:01PM]

Jeffrey you do know that you can pick a Samsung Blu Ray player runs $799 now right? And Blu Ray and HD DVD uses the same codecs. Just like with the DVD, if/when the PlayStation 3 catch fire then people will have Blu Ray players in their home. Why not use what they have if they have it right?

[Dylan Neild @ Dec 17th 2006 4:30AM]

First off, HD-DVD discs generally use VC-1, not AVC.

Second, HD-DVD isn't "superior". At least, not anymore.

When Blu-ray first came out, the only releases were Sony/MGM releases and Sony, as you correctly said, made the curious decision to use MPEG2 for their BD-25 single layer releases. MPEG2 can't compete with VC1 (what HD-DVD discs generally use) at the 15-18Mbps data rates that these single layer discs were encoded at and as a result, HD-DVD was dubbed "superior".

That said, grab any modern Warner or Paramount release and you'll find that both their Blu-ray and their HD-DVD discs use the same VC-1 encodes. The picture is identical from both formats. Disney is generally using AVC on their Blu-ray discs and they look fantastic. Fox has used both AVC and MPEG2, though in my experience even their MPEG2 releases are quite good (Ice Age 2 is an excellent disc and is MPEG2 single layer).

Sony is still using MPEG2, but with dual-layer BD-50 discs being a reality now (something the HD-DVD fanboyratti all claimed was 'vaporware', if you've followed this sad little saga close enough), even Sony's MPEG-2 outings are getting up in quality. MPEG2 at 30Mbps is pretty great. With so much bandwidth, you don't need VC-1/AVC as badly.

[Castle @ Dec 16th 2006 5:53PM]

@Jeffrey

Blu-ray has quite a few titles that use AVC, including X-men 3. Codec-wise they support the same codecs, HD-DVD won't succeded without the support of Fox or Disney studios.

[Peter @ Dec 16th 2006 7:05PM]

Jeff,

That is old news on the codecs and only applies to the first couple of movies. All the same codecs are mandatory on both players and the newer movies use the same codecs and essentially look the same.

The only difference right now:

The physical disk: Advantage Blu Ray. Quite a bit larger capacity.
The price of standalone players: Advantage HD DVD with lower price, but this is temporary.

Other factors: Each PS3 is a Blu Ray. Something of trojan horse and if it were available would also cover the price advantage of the HD. I know I would buy a $500 PS3 before a $500 HD-DVD player.

Next year I expect Microsoft will merge HD-DVD with Xbox and that factor will equalize again.

I think it will be a long drawn out fight.

[acb @ Dec 16th 2006 8:24PM]

"While we've seen the Blu-ray-equipped PS3 outsell Microsoft's HD DVD drive 5 to 1, there isn't much substance in such a statistic..."
I disagree; I think there is a lot of substance to this statistic. First, though, the real comparison is total BRD players compared to total HDDVD players. Obviously all PS3's are BRD players, so there is currently well over 400,000 BRD players in the (US) market right now as we discuss this. It is expected that PS3's will continue to sell as fast as stores can stock them through aproxmately 1,000,000 units, which should be by the end of January at the latest. If this is correct, then in about one month from now, BRD will already have well over a million players installed. Now I am [totalling] guessing that this is a lot more than HD DVD players (does anyone know the actualy stats on HD DVD players sold?). If this is the case, then a snowball effect is likely to occur: more content will become available on BRD b/c of the greater installed base of players, then the larger library of content will spur consumers to choose BRD players, and so on.

[Martin @ Dec 16th 2006 8:30PM]

Let's face it, I don't care if HD-DVD or Blue Ray wins. What I care about is starting a High-Def movie collection only to find I can't buy a player in 5 years time! Replacing a player is way cheaper than replacing a whole movie collection.

I'd even pay a little more for dual-format discs if that patent ever made it into production.

[Taylor @ Dec 16th 2006 10:36PM]

In Australia (which I realise is a minority market), you simply CAN'T buy HD-DVD. Only the big retail chains have upscaling players in the first place, and if you want a HD player, you have to buy Blu-Ray for a huge amount.

HD-DVD hasn't come over here by now, but blu-ray has. Blu-ray might just win Australia over... but about the rest of the world.

[aiken @ Dec 17th 2006 12:21AM]

It's funny how everyone is such an expert on this subject, but nobody's mentioned that Sony's license terms for Blu-ray expressly forbid any Blu-ray player from also playing a competing format (ie, HDDVD).

A combo player can't happen unless 1) Blu-ray is reverse engineered, or 2) Sony decides that a ubiquitous commodity product is better than a proprietary failed product. So far, 1) seems a lot more likely... and it's pretty darned unlikely.

[CzarCruise @ Dec 17th 2006 12:45AM]

People are saying it really comes down to the specs, etc. But it really ends up being who is backing it. BluRay is being backed by 7 of the 8 major film companies: Disney/Buena Vista, Paramount, 20th century Fox, Warner Bros., MGM, Lionsgate, and Sony(obviously). But what has been proven to be the make or break in the past(with the downfall of betamax to VHS was the Porn industry. Digital Playground(whom holds 40% of all the porn industry in america) has made a statement that they will be releasing their porn movies on BluRay discs.

[John Doe @ Dec 17th 2006 2:21AM]

Is it a stalemate? Seriously the forms for all intents and purposes have been out less then a year. In the case of Sony and North America less then, what?, 6 months? AFAICT HD-DVD has an edge in several categories.
the biggest deal is price. And something that this article fails to recognize. DVD didn't take off until players were WELL below the half grand mark. I didn't pick my DVD player up until it hit $300 at which point I splurged. Similarly wait until next year. Prices will drop in both camps, hardware will get better, manufacturing processes will be ironed out, and a clearer picture will emerge.
Seriously though I think some of the authors of these blog posts try to create an atmosphere of controversy when it just ain't there....yet.
Personally my money is still on HD-DVD but I'm not willing to put my money where my mouth is just yet. when TV series start showing up on HD content I may consider a purchase. Turning a 6 disk set of DVD's into 1 or 2 would be nice.

[Carbonize @ Dec 17th 2006 2:52AM]

Engadget are right to say "While we've seen the Blu-ray-equipped PS3 outsell Microsoft's HD DVD drive 5 to 1, there isn't much substance in such a statistic" because people are buying the PS3 because it's the PS3 not because it has Blu-Ray. The people who have purchased PS3s would of done so regardless of what media format it used.

GiovanniMcAdoo I suggest you go do some reading. Sony had a very very minor part to do with the invention of DVDs. A lot of companies were involved in the creation of DVD but Philips and Toshiba were the main two contributers. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DVD for more details.

I said it in another story and I'll repeat it here. The blu-ray fanboys go on about how HD-DVD doesn't have the capacity but then go on about the 100GB and 200GB blu-ray discs being worked on. The 100GB blu-ray is a four layer disc and the 200GB an eight layer disc. So please show me where it states that HD-DVD cannot also go beyond the current dual layer it uses?

To be honest I'm glad I bought a 360 and not a PS3 (not that you can get them here in the UK yet) because the 360 works as an upscaling DVD and, whilst it currently has an external HD-DVD drive, there is no reason why in the future it couldn't have an external blu-ray drive. Can you see Sony making or even allowing an external HD-DVD drive for the PS3?

[GiovanniMcAdoo @ Dec 17th 2006 9:53AM]

Carbonize
True to a certain degree. You did not factor in the "fact" that SONY put a DVD drive inside their PlayStation 2 helping the sells of DVD's because it was a cheap alternative compared to the other DVD playersout at teh same time. And im sure almost everybody own here knows atleast one person who uses their PlayStation 2 as a DVD player. And SONY put more money into than Phillips. SONY did have a huge hand in the DVD format. Thats one thing you can not deny.

[GiovanniMcAdoo @ Dec 17th 2006 10:04AM]

Also I just love how everyone thinks of SONY as an evil company that will sell their products even through death and not care about others. Even with the launch and creation of the PlayStation 3 proves this wrong. The PlayStation 3 60GB prem, unlike the PlayStation Portable, uses storage card formats of Memory Stick Pro Dou, Compact Flash, and SD. Not to mention any laptop HDD that runs at 5400 rpm can be used as it's internal HDD and does not have to be SONY made. Also in refering to Carbonize again since you so pointed out wiki for your source. If you have read then you would have notice that first SONY and Phillps back a different format and later join forces with Toshiba to form the DVD. And if you look up Betamax history; after its death SONY began working with VHS to salvage money on the winning format. The only reason why UMD's are falling is because of their price to the consumer and only can be used for the PlayStation Portable and not for other means like CD, DVD, Blu Ray, and HD DVD. So in a fact UMD should not even count in the conversation.

[Dave Pevsner @ Dec 17th 2006 10:04AM]

they say that by next june, the price of blu-ray burners will decrease drastically. and i think it was NEC that made a chip that properly read and decoded both formats, so if someone makes a drive using that chipset when the gallium nitride LEDs get cheaper, we may have a dual-format burner for no more than 3 or 4 hundred dollars by this time next year. then it won't matter who wins, because your computer will be compatible with both :)

my opinion is the war should end quickly, with blu-ray being an obvious choice for people who use discs as data backups, and if dual-format drives take off, then let the movie studios choose what discs contain movies; if they don't take off, just keep everything BD to save money.

[Oddmanout @ Dec 17th 2006 10:37AM]

"Putting blueray and HDdvd on the same box is just akin to prolong the format war."

In a way I guess this is true. It could make the "format war" basically irrelevent, which might mean there never is a clear winner, which would technicaly mean it goes on forever (or until both technologies are replaced). The average joe would only need to check his new DVD for a "Hi-DEF" label of some type, and not have to worry about the underlying technologies.

I'm not surprised the war is slow going. Hi-Def capable TVs are not mainstream just yet...but that should change pretty quickly from here on out by attrition (as TVs die they are replaced with up to date tech). But HD-DVD needs to gain ground quick. It's biggest advantage from the git has been it's lower production cost due to its usage of some stale technology. But it will lose this advantage as Blu-ray manufacturing prices come down. If not for Sonys financial troubles I would expect Blu-ray to win without question. But with them as far into the red as they are, they can't loss-lead to push their format nearly as much as HD-DVD backers (which includes MS) can.

In a way this is beginning to remind me of AMD and Intel. Sure, it was advantage AMD for a nearly 3 years, what with them busting out 32/64-bit x86 compatible chips while Intel was abortively trying to redefine the market, but that advantage fizzled. Why ? The chips were clearly superior. BUT, without a mainstream OS that could take advantage of that 64-bit goodness, most people didn't care. And now that the 64-bit bomb is set to drop, the paradigm has shifted back to Intel...

HD-DVDs price advantage may end up to be the same sort of useless temporary advantage. ie It may not last until the point where mainstream consummers actually care about Hi-Def enough to pay for it. And when they do, if the prices have equalized, Blu-ray will be the obvious choice.

But this is Sony we're talking about. They've got a lot of problems to solve lately, and some fairly bizarre notions of how to solve them. And I don't know that they have ever successfully edged out competing tech with their proprietary formats. But I guess there's always a first time...

As for dual format machines in general...at this rate we (engadget readers and tech savy people of all denominations) will just end up building our own. Prices on components WILL drop over time, and if people are so dang blasted determined to have a single machine that plays both kinds of disks 2 - 3 years from now, a fairly pedestrian PC with 2 optical drives configured as a media player will fit the bill nicely and won't be that hard to build...

[CML @ Dec 17th 2006 11:34AM]

I don't understand why all the hypothetical talk about Blu-Ray besting HD-DVD is necessary when one can simply look at the movie sales rankings on Amazon. http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/ does a nice job of this.
If you have been looking at this the last month or so you will see that Blu-Ray movies don't even come close to HD-DVD sales. Compare apples to apples: Superman Returns on HD-DVD is ranked 405, in Blu-Ray it's ranked 1580. For a while the HD-DVD version was even ranked in the top 100 of all DVDs.
Also note that on google trends HD is only increasing it's lead in "chatter".
Also, the 360 HD-DVD drive apparently works in Microsoft Vista...watch those fly off the shelves in the next couple of months.
If any BD ever comes close in the sales figures will there actually be a contest.

[tekdroid @ Dec 17th 2006 11:46AM]

both formats will be made irrelevant by embedded ultra-restictions.

[ozone @ Dec 17th 2006 12:08PM]

Before anyone tries to use the "The-PS3-isn't-always-going-to-be-used-for-Blu-Ray-playback-therefore-the-statistic-that-there-are-more-Blu-Ray-players-out-there-than-HD-DVD-players-is-false..." argument, get a clue and know that Sony didn't include Blu-Ray in the PS3 so that people wouldn't notice it and go out to but a HD-DVD player when having a perfectly good (and probably the best out at the moment) Blu-ray player sitting in there PS3. Once Sony gets to ramping up production of the PS3, they are going to go crazy with the Blu-Ray ads, EVERYWHERE. Quote me on that shit.

[ComradeZ @ Dec 17th 2006 1:04PM]

Before either of these formats take off, it will have to overcome the installed base of preexisting DVDs. I just bought a computer that came with an HD-DVD player. How many HD-DVDs have I bought? None, because I still can't play them in my living room, in my kid's bedroom, in the car, on the portable, etc. Anyone who buys a PS3 is going to have the same situation -- they'll be able to play their Blu-Ray on the PS3 that's connected to the big plasma screen, but nowhere else in the house. (This is why MS fought to have HD-DVD's streamable on the home LAN) Hence, the amount of HD discs people buy will remain a tiny fraction of the market for at least the next few years.

[daliminator2000 @ Dec 17th 2006 10:30PM]

Uh...Samsung's a South Korean company, contrary to the implications in that article. And Hitachi's Japanese. I don't know where the "Taiwan based" part comes in.

Just wanted to point that out.

[StrangeBum @ Dec 17th 2006 11:44PM]

I just wanted to state Sony's history with new formats.

It goes all the way back to the A-Trac which was a Sony format.
Jump ahead a bit and there was the whole VHS versus Beta, Beta was Sony.
Sony made the Mini-Disc, do you even remember the Mini-Disc?
UMD is a Sony only format, lot of good it's doing.
The Memory Stick Pro(Duo) are now only used by Sony products.

So, history has a way of repeating itself with ol' Sony and I don't think that that's going to change with the HD-DVD verses BluRay. Sony just doesn't know how to introduce a new format and make it work for the average consumer.

[Drew @ Dec 18th 2006 9:15AM]

Hello? The Mini-Disc was huge in Asia. Just because it wasn't a roaring success in North America doesn't mean the format never went anywhere.

You can all argue about video quality that, amazon ranking this but in reality, people next year are going to wonder where all the HD DVD movies are. If they want Casino Royale or Disney movies, guess what? They'll have to buy a Blu-ray player.

[hoyce1212 @ Dec 18th 2006 12:55PM]

Stop the rumor of a dual player. I can not and will not happen. Sony and Toshiba bought these different technologies. When they bought them, part of there agreement for the both was that they could not make a dual player. So when each company bought these technologies they knew they were in a win or lose situation and they could not license out a dual player. So please stop the rumor of dual players.