Two years of battle between HD DVD and Blu-ray: a retrospective
By Ben Drawbaugh 
posted February 20th 2008 11:48AM
posted February 20th 2008 11:48AM
We'll start this story way back in the Summer of '05 where the talks to create a unified format broke down: this is the moment most of us realized we were in for some fun. Sure, this thing got started way before that, but we have to start somewhere and this is when it really began to get interesting. As HD DVD approached the BDA to join forces and demanded too many changes to the Blu-ray disc format, the BDA told them to pound sand.
Now that we knew there was going to be a format war, all that was left to do was wait -- and we did plenty of that as we saw the delay of the HD DVD launch from late '05 to the Spring of '06. Things were going to get worse before they got better, as two studios who had originally promised HD DVD exclusivity had announced in the Fall of '05 that they'd also release titles on Blu-ray. Paramount was the first studio to go purple, followed by Warner a few days later. This had many people wondering if this war would be over before it started, as Universal became the only remaining major studio to exclusively back HD DVD. Of course we all know now it did get started, but as we waited for things to kick off, Netflix let its intentions to support both formats be known.At the 2006 Consumer Electronics Show, we all oohed and aahed over the beautiful sights at the Blu-ray and HD DVD booths. Still, it was very apparent by the number of prototypes that Blu was going to have more hardware support, but HD DVD had the time advantage and was due to hit the streets in March. But March came and left, and HD DVD was delayed again, but this time by about a month to April 18th, 2006. No one knew how good either format would be, and while some assumed Blu-ray would look better because of it's capacity advantage, some were worried it wouldn't matter. In fact, many believed the studios would down convert the 1080p signal over component video which was the most common connection at the time. That fear was soon put to rest as one by one each studio announced it wouldn't set the Image Constraint Token (ICT) -- yet.
Alas the wait was finally over and the format war officially started around June 15th as the Samsung BD-P1000 hits
the streets. But as reviews starting to pour in, there was trouble in the Blu camp as some of the transfers from film were terrible -- so bad in fact, that a few titles were later replaced for free. This, combined with a bug in the first player that messed up its noise cancellation circuitry, left many thinking HD DVD was the clear choice for videophiles. But this wasn't the only problem -- most of the initial Blu-ray titles released were using MPEG2, which by itself doesn't pose much of a problem, but due to some issues producing BD50 discs, the authors of the discs had to make it all fit on a single layer disc (25GB). At this point, many in the Red camp were claiming that BD50 discs were a myth and would never come to market, and although it took about four months, on October 10th 2006, Sony's Click was released on Blu-ray as the first BD50 title. 
Although the format war had officially started, we all knew things were just about to get rolling when the game consoles entered the scene. And in November, both the PS3 and the Xbox 360 add-on HD DVD drive were released. The PlayStation 3 had the craziest price anyone had ever seen on a gaming console at $499 (20GB), and although many were skeptical about its abilities as a Blu-ray player, it not only was the cheapest option at the time, but it was also by far the best. The Xbox 360 add-on was only $199, but required an additional purchase, making the two options very comparably priced. At this point, the debate of which would help their format was out of control. Claims were made in both directions about gamers and playing movies on a gaming console, but ultimately the PS3 was outselling the add-on by about five to one. It wasn't until much much later that we learned the impact that the PS3 would have on the outcome. Going into CES 2007 the Blu-ray camp had really picked up a lot of steam after an embarrassing start. We knew things were far from over, and Blu was looking good. It didn't stay that way for very long as the Red camp picked up it's second hardware manufacture -- no we don't count the RCA -- and a big one at that, as LG not only announced the first dual format player at CES, but it actually hit the streets a week or two later.
The rub was of course that although it would play HD DVD movies, it didn't support HDi, so the best part of HD DVD was not included. But LG wasn't the only one with a surprise at CES, as Warner was there to announce its Total HD disc. Sure it seemed like a good idea at the time, but it was short on details and seemed like a permanent solution to a temporary problem.
Towards the end of 2006, both formats were seeing moderate success, and although HD DVD had outsold
Blu-ray every week of year, the charts pulled a 180 half way through December and Blu-ray was off to a good start in 2007 -- it went on to win every week that year. The first title to really move any volume was Casino Royale, which Sony touted the fact that it shipped over 100k copies, but unfortunately for Blu, only half of them were actually sold. At this point, many analysts believed that the HD movie market was Blu-ray's for the taking. Sales were good, but Blu-ray wasn't doing anything to seal the deal, and after a few months of silence, HD DVD got a break in the way of a fantastic rumor that seems downright silly in hindsight. How so? In April of '07, $300 for a Chinese HD DVD player at Wal-Mart sounded like a great deal, but a week later we learned there wasn't much to the rumor, but of course HD DVD had the last laugh as Toshiba brand HD DVD players were available for $98 at Wal-Mart during a pre-Black Friday sale in November.
The Blu-ray Disc Association wasn't going to take this lying down, and somehow managed to get Blockbuster to announce it'd only carry Blu-ray titles in many of its stores. Many still believe that there was some sort of deal going on here, and although it was argued that this was a non-announcement, we heard at least a few sales people say something like "if you want'a rent movies, then Blu-ray is for you" -- despite the fact that it wasn't true.
Then, in the Fall of '07, HD DVD dropped the bomb on the BDA, one that could've very easily been the watershed moment that shifted things in its favor. Paramount and Dreamworks announced it would no longer release its movies on Blu-ray. This was very sudden and in fact one title (Blades of Glory) still managed to make its way on to Blu-ray and still goes for a premium on the second-hand market. Many were predicting that this was the first of many defections from Blu-ray, but rumors quickly surfaced indicating that there was a backdoor deal involved and while it was never definitively confirmed, many believe Paramount made out. But not everyone working with Paramount was on board, as Michael Bay was already planning on releasing his latest project on Blu-ray, and was not bashful about voicing his beef with the fact that Transformers wouldn't be released on Blu-ray. Toshiba's new alliance with Paramount soon paid off as Transformers set new records for sales, but it wasn't enough to take that week's Nielsen VideoScan numbers as Blu-ray's defensive buy one get one free offer kept Blu ahead by a mere 1 percent -- the closest Red ever got to winning a single week since December of '06.
Moving into the holiday season, Blu looked like it had an answer for every HD DVD offensive and even though HD DVD had a few very successful hardware sales before Thanksgiving, the Nielsen VideoScan numbers continued to show Blu-ray with a solid lead -- many considered media sales the most important metric when measuring the success of a format. But regardless of sales, it seemed like a stalemate and many wondered if it'd ever end. What we didn't realize was that when Warner decided to kill off its Total HD disc plans, that soon after it'd make a move that would be remembered as the one thing that sealed the deal for Blu-ray. We did suspect something was up because for the first time ever Warner released a Blu-ray title with arguably better specifications than its HD DVD counterpart, and consumers finally had a choice between HD DVD's interactivity or Blu-ray HD supplements. It wasn't long before we learned that more people chose the Blu-ray version and we believe this is a big part of the reason why Warner eventually made the decision that it did.
Meanwhile, the Blu-ray spec continued to be a work in progress as Sony released a firmware update for the PS3 that -- among other things -- made it the first Bonus View (Profile 1.10) compatible player.
Leading up to CES 2008, we heard many rumors that Warner was going to make a move and many of our readers were convinced that Warner was going Blu and that it'd mean the end for HD DVD. And just before the big show, Warner dropped the final big bomb on Red, letting the whole world know that it was over between 'em. As we all expected, rumors of payoffs were in the air and we have no doubt some sort of deal was made. Warner insists it was doing what it thought was best for the home media business -- of which Warner owns most of.
After Warner's big announcement, we wondered how HD DVD would (or could) fire back, but for the first time, we think Toshiba was caught off guard, as not only was the HD DVD CES press event canceled, but the official response to Warner's move was down right somber.
After the dust from CES settled, things really started to get interesting as the HD DVD camp starting seeing defections right and left, and although it held on to its core by not losing any studios, companies like Netflix and Wal-Mart seemed to know something no one else did. At this point we're not sure which came first, but regardless, within a week of Netflix, Wal-Mart and Best Buy announcing their love for all things Blu, the rumors of the official end for HD DVD starting coming in so solid that not even the most devout HD DVD fanboy could feel at ease.
Finally, Toshiba held a press conference in Japan that would effectively and definitively end the HD media format war after 1 year, 10 months and 5 days.
In retrospect, it was the PS3 and its owners who won the war for Blu-ray. Despite what many believed, PS3 owners were buying Blu-ray movies and although it was a small fraction, it was enough to convince the studios Blu-ray had the most potential to be the next physical format -- that and because the BDA was willing to offer a few anti-consumer features like BD+ and region coding. We can certainly appreciate Toshiba not having any regrets about the way it approached HD DVD, and although it didn't win when it was all said and done, we believe HD DVD did successfully pressure Blu-ray to step up its game. Red forced Blu to be more concerned about its transfers and authoring, to reduce prices earlier than it may have liked, and to market itself more heavily than if there was no format war at all.
Thanks for the write up Ben. I'm glad that I only invested $98 for my HD-A2. It will make a nice upconverter for the bedroom. I wonder if my 5 free movies will ever come?
It's probably good that Blu-ray won. I don't think Sony would have admitted defeat with so many PS3's in the wild. At least now we can move forward.
freakin love the picture, it makes my day
Seriously... Decent blog, all those slagging it obviously have too much time on their hands. Why read the whole thing and then the comments and then take the time to post a "Engadget shouldn't write about HD war, we don't want to read about it" comment.
Then don't. Run away when you see the words HD. Honestly.
I get the picture that these are people with way too much invested (of themselves) in this thing. One thing that I couldn't get over (especially near the end) is how little truth mattered to the fanboys out there. Let's get objective here - if you chose HD-DVD and your choice lost out - what does that really say about you? that you chose a format that most people didn't - lots of factors are involved and both formats have their good and bad points when compared to each other. This doesn't effect who you are, or your value to the world. Honestly it doesn't.
Can't we just grab some objectivity and say - HD DVD has less storage capacity, and a smaller data pipeline, and Blu-Ray is an format that can still be refined, does not have internet connection, and can't work with some of the special types of features that HD-DVD can - because as soon as you start saying that Blu is an incomplete format, or HD-DVD allows a full movie experience, or HD-DVD or Blu took this or that payoff (I heard it from a friend of a guy that works for an insider) you've lost me as far as your "argument" goes.
Perhaps the most amazing phenomenon in this whole debacle is the Redboys who now say that Blu will lose anyways because digital downloads are better, or Blu is losing to DVD (not in direct competition - different formats). All the sudden the special features and HD quality are not the main issues, the main issue was picking a side and defending it. I have no doubts that the Bluboys would have done the same.. although they still would have had their playstations to play the movies I suppose - support isn't going to stop on that anytime soon. But what does this show us then? That we like conflict, and want to pick sides in something that is bigger than anything that we can control? I think it reflects a bit on self-esteem too, it is difficult to be humble, and harder to be humbled.
One thing that just blows my mind are the HD-DVD stats. Depending on how you read the Toshiba press conference transcript they sold between 730,000 and 1,300,000 drives (in add-on's and standalones). That seems quite unbelieveable with the amount of vocal supporters on all the sites. I mean, my little city in Canada has more people than that.. Canada is 30 million people and the states is what? 270mil?
And they only sold 600K or so into North America? that's the best that they did was 0.2% of the population - that doesn't count all the redboys that bragged 3 or 4 players..did Blu-Ray sell any standalone players - does anyone know the numbers on that - because 10.5 million Playstation 3's is looking very good against the 1 or so mil that HD-DVD sold, but chumpy when you consider the population of developed nations.
Let the healing begin people.. :)
Engadget - thanks for the good articles, I will continue reading them!
That is a well written comment. Gives everyone some perspective.
I hope everybody realizes that the majority of consumers are not even familiar with the terms HD DVD and Blu-Ray. Mr. E mentions the mass adoption of Blu-Ray in the next few years. Maybe, if the cost of BD machines and DVD's are the same as standard machines and SD DVD's. Within 3 years the technology of DVD will be under fire from something new and better.
I'm extremely delighted this format war is now over but I also agree in EngadgetHD's assessment that the war was a good thing for all the mentioned positive results above. Whether we like it or not, this war had its advantages. In the spirit of business competition, it was interesting to witness each camp attempting to exceed each other's technological qualities to win our attention and our dollars. It ultimately drove down prices much sooner and at the same time increased the benefits for the consumers. And speaking of consumers, WE were the ones that dictated this war by buying the HD discs of our choice and not the camps. Do you really think Warner, or any other major studios for that matter (except for a few), really cared which format won? The movie studios only care for one thing, and that is to create massive valuation for their shareholders by selling their films. They only view the historic cash-flow and profits and project future earnings based on them. Obviously they listened to what we were buying. If HD-DVD discs were outselling Bluray discs during the war, Warner would have gone the other way I'm sure. But the truth of the matter, the sample of the population (us early adopters) spoke and we commandingly spelled BLU.
It's hard to read everything that's been said on the whole format war, but I haven't seen much discussion of just how fragile HD DVD has been all along. Had Toshiba dropped hardware support at anytime, it would have been the end of the format because there was virtually no other hardware support. However, had Sony (or any other hardware manufacturer) ended hardware support for Blu-ray, there were still many other existing manufacturers to fill the void. The same goes for software support as Paramount leaving Blu-ray had little effect. Yet Warner leaving HD DVD had a much more significant impact, leaving HD DVD with only two studios. And although it didn't happen, even if HD DVD had retained it's original studios and Universal had gone neutral (prior to August), Blu-ray would have likely won it for the fact that there would be 100% studio support.
Another side thought. I was always bothered by HD DVD really only having a single manufacturer providing hardware support. In my opinion, it provided customers with no choice and didn't give much reason to push the limits and put out superior players due to the competition. With Blu-ray having multiple manufacturers, there's all sorts of room for one company to put out a player that's just as good but cheaper or is faster or is more friendly, and so on. I'd much rather have that kind of choice than having a single manufacturer where I have the choice of basic features, most features or all features.
Toshiba's main tactic in the war was pricing - selling their players at a loss to try to 'buy' market share to build a critical mass to beat Blu-ray.
Unfortunately, that also priced any allies out of the market. Thomson/RCA tried to sell a HD DVD player early on, a rebadged Toshiba, but dropped it because they couldn't make a profit competing against the same box from Toshiba - for less. Then Venturer announced a 'low price' HD DVD player - only to end up being undercut by continued Toshiba price cuts. Who would buy a 'no name' box when the Toshiba is less? Not many. And then, near the end, Onkyo pulled out of HD DVD for similar reasons - couldn't compete with Toshiba on pricing.
Since Toshiba was willing to bleed red ink, massively, in an effort to jump start the format, they forced any other vendors out of the market. The only way to sell players was to sell them at a loss - and since the other vendors didn't have skin in the game, as Toshiba did, they had no incentive to do so.
The Blu-ray vendors didn't subsidize their players - with the exception of the PS3, of course. But even with the PS3 out, vendors were able to sell standalone players for more early on, as there were those who wouldn't buy a 'game system' to play their movies. (I think that's a ridiculous POV, but whatever.) And by mid-2007 there were BD players available for less than the PS3 was selling for, so it stopped being (as much of) a factor in the BD player pricing anyway. So the market was open to more vendors to produce players they could sell at a profit.
Toshiba thought they could carry the format on their own back without any allies producing players. They were wrong.
The [BD+] and [region coding] links in the final paragraph are broken.
Also, I'd like to hear more about why the unification talks in 2005 broke down. OK, the red folk "demanded too many changes to the Blu-ray disc format," but does anyone know exactly what those changes were?
Thanks, I fixed it.
We don't really know very much, in fact what I mentioned is hearsay.
Ben, you are amazing:
"As HD DVD approached the BDA to join forces and demanded too many changes to the Blu-ray disc format, the BDA told them to pound sand."
Ben says:
"We don't really know very much, in fact what I mentioned is hearsay."
We always suspected what kind of journalist you were; now we indeed know. Tragic.
I posted response comment on the first page of comments with more details.
But, in short, while nothing official was stated by the two sides (they were closed talks) there were 'sources' who reported Toshiba wanted changes to the physical disc (likely to use more of their DVD patents - more licensing revenue, which is what this was always about) as well as switching to HDi from BD-J (which Microsoft insisted on and Toshiba co-developed with them). Those were reportedly the main issues that created an impasse.
Toshiba spurned the BDA repeated for a couple of years, until April-May 2005 when they seemed to realize they were up against *the entire rest of the industry* and weren't winning more allies - and they blinked and approached the BDA.
But by that point the BDA had spent years getting all the members to finally agree on the specs. The physical specs were basically done, BD-J had been agreed on as the interactive platform, and the licensing issues were well along. And here comes Toshiba asking them to re-open *core* issues. And this after years of telling the BDA to go screw every time they were invited to join. The BDA, no unreasonably, said they were unwilling to undo years of hard-won compromises and re-open core details.
Reports at the time indicated a compromise still almost happened - in fact, some reports were that it HAD happened, but Toshiba quickly squashed them. The reported compromise was that the spec would retain the BD physical disc, but would use 'software' and access control from Toshiba, which was most likely HDi and probably their implementation of AACS or something.
But, in the end, Toshiba walked away from the BDA and decided to bet all-or-nothing on a win in the format war.
They technically did release HD DVD in March, the 31st, in Japan. While it may not be a US release, it was first released to consumers on this day.
There are three key points that need to be raised that haven't been fully explored in this article and the comments that go a long way to explaining why Blu-Ray won even though HD-DVD is arguably better:
1. The battle wasn't really HD-DVD versus Blu-Ray, but really HD-DVD disk format plus HDi versus Blu-Ray disk format plus something (which later turned out to be BD-J. There's no question that Blu-Ray disks, as physical objects are better than HD-DVD disks because they have higher capacity, are more durable, can be made out of more different materials (remember the paper BD?) and in the end proved not to be more expensive to manufacture. On the other hand, HDi was a fully developed platform while BD-J is still a work in progress. The unified format should have been Blu-Ray disks with HDi content. I am told that the reason unification broke down is that (a) Toshiba wanted the same share of BD licensing revenues that it would have received on HD-DVD disks, (b) MS insisted that HDi become the only development platform for authoring and interactivity, and (c) Sony insisting that uncompressed LPCM be mandatory. The reason that the war went on as long as it did was that both the companies and consumers looked for different things when choosing a format -- HD-DVD offered more interactivity and BD offered more HD content. In the end, as Harry Potter proved, the general public doesn't give a fig about interactivity.
2. Toshiba and the HD-DVD fans wrongly assumed that the general public would be seduced by low prices. If this were so, then the best selling car in the US would be the Yugo. The exact opposite is true -- most people perceive that something priced low must be "cheap." What they want is a bargain -- good value for money. And, true or not, the PS3 delivered on that perception. Not only did it look so much more well-built than any stand-alone player, but depending on your priority, it was like buying a game machine and getting a BD player free, or buying a BD player and getting a game machine for free. The fact that every review said that the PS3 was the best and least expensive BD player only enhanced this image. Even though it was the most expensive console, it seemed to deliver the most bang for the buck. FWIW, I know at least 10 people who own PS3s, and not one of them owns a single game. Their consoles are used exclusively as BD players.
3. The war was really over with the decision to cancel the CES press conference. That sent a signal that the HD-DVD side had lost faith in the product. After doing that, it was only a matter of how long HD-DVD would take to die. If Toshiba had stood strong instead of running away with its tail between its legs, the format might still be alive today.
Wow, nice post and well said.
@HD Guy,
Nice comment, there! I'd add that BD-J is less of a work in progress than one might guess.
BD-J is based on a packaged media profile of Globally Executable MHP, or GEM. GEM, in turn, forms the basis of most global digital television application standards, including Multimedia Home Platform ("DVB-MHP") for broadcast, satellite, and cable worldwide, OpenCable Application Platform ("OCAP") for North American cable, and Advanced Common Application Platform ("ACAP") for US broadcast. GEM is an ETSI standard; DVB-MHP is a DVB standard. All GEM-based standards are built on top of Java technology, invented by Sun Microsystems.
The major benefit becomes obvious when you consider BD-J/MHP/OCAP/ACAP are all based on the Java platform, there is a high degree of content interoperability between these standards, making it easier, for example, for Blu-ray Disc content features to be made available on cable Video on Demand, or for interactive television content originally aired on broadcast television to be repackaged and made available on Blu-ray Disc.
Slightly distasteful banner image this time - Im sure you want to highlight the battle concept, but people died there in the 2nd WW. Yet, so far, I dont know of any HD followers that subscribed to Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori.
Dulce et decorum is from WWI, and it specifically deals with the chemical agents used by either side.
I find your politicization of a relatively harmless map distasteful.
Ben,
Youre quite wrong, it was used in a *poem* in WWI, that doesnt mean it hadnt existed for TWO MILLENNIA before that.
If you actually understood latin, youd know that my quote has nothing to do with chemical warfare (the poem was about gas in the trenches though, well done!), but the sweetness of dying for ones country.
Have anyone seen this from Amazon.com. Apperently they just announced that they will be supporting blu as the digital form of choice.
http://www.dvdtown.com/news/amazoncom-to-support-blu-ray-as-the-digital-format-o
*** correction with active link***
Have anyone seen this from Amazon.com. Apperently they just announced that they will be supporting blu as the digital form of choice.
http://www.dvdtown.com/news/amazoncom-to-support-blu-ray-as-the-digital-format-of-choice-for-customers/5265
The consumer is the big loser here. HD DVD players were much easier to manufacture and much cheaper too.
Blu Ray players will cost as much as $200 dollars more than HD DVD players. Seems some big Corp executives don't seem to care much for the little guy.
They were cheaper because Toshiba subsidized them to the point where they alienated every other CE manufacturer. There was -zero- incentive to produce an HD DVD player because there was no profit to be made against Toshiba's loss model. This is why they were the lone wolf on the HD DVD side. It's not a sustainable business practice and in the end it bit them in the ass.
Do you remember how much DVD players cost? A year after inception you might have bought one for $500 (1998). Another year later, around $300. Considering inflation, you're getting a quite a deal even on "expensive" blu-ray players today.
Toshiba denied subsidizing their stand-alones. We do know that Sony subsidized the PS3.
In the end, Blu Ray won because, one by one, the studios backed that format. If it were the other way around, HD DVD would have emerged the winner. Its as simple as that.
If they're denying it, they're also full of it, the same way they are when they talk about how far ahead in numbers they are in press releases, but curiously leaving out PS3s in their figures.
Even iSuppli reported early on that Toshiba had to subsidize their players with a detailed cost analysis ($674 cost, but $499 retail, the HDA1), and this was long before the insane price cut strategy when things were not going that well for them. Business Week and every other accredited institution, CE sites, analysts, and just about every blog under the sun talks of Toshiba subsidizing their players.
As for Sony subsidizing the PS3, uh, that's not a secret either. The Playstation brand has always started every generation with a loss model, going back to the PS1. The difference is Sony is a master of cost reduction (they did it in less than 2 years with the PS1 and PS2 each) and recouping their investments with sales of games - and now since they've IP in Blu-ray, they also make money on BD licensing, movies and hardware. They're at the break-even point with the PS3 now and expect to start profiting this fiscal year or later in 2008. They're past 10 million units now, 4 months faster than Microsoft did in the same time frame. Another difference that lead to the demise of HD DVD, sales were far behind Blu-ray movie sales worldwide. The closest they got to Blu-ray sales was on US turf, but still lost *each and every week* to Blu-ray movie sales in 2007, about 2:1 - bringing in about $67 million more in BD sales than HD sales in 2007. Also, the other Blu-ray manufacturers have been selling for profit (competition and thus no alienation through preposterous undercutting). The gripe about blu-ray pricing is done without a thought that companies also need to benefit with profit to make more hardware and investments, and in turn drive prices down through the natural process of economies of scale. Toshiba's gamble of going-it-alone and undercutting the competition did not pay off. Plain and simple.
On a component basis Blu-ray and HD DVD players are not very different. There are several chipsets that can play both formats, and thus be used to build either player type. Even the drives themselves have more in common than they differ - the big difference is the optical pickup with the lens assembly. Blu-ray and HD DVD have different focal depths, and Blu-ray packs in more data, and thus needs a more precise pickup. But the same laser diodes (the pricey bit) are used.
Everything else is just sheet metal and commodity components - RAM, FLASH, etc.
HD DVD players are not really cheaper to produce than Blu-ray players of comparable specs.
You may be getting quite a deal on Blu-Ray players but the average consumer doesn't want to bite on that deal. $400 may be a great deal on the PS3 but not a lot of 40+ year olds care about the gaming and with movies averaging $25 or more, a good up converting DVD player for $169 (Oppo) will do just fine.
I'm sure you and many others feel just that. I'm sure many also feel the opposite, even in that age bracket.
In another year or two (mass market adoption doesn't happen overnight) prices will have come down enough to peak the interest of the even frugal Walmart generation's expectations.
Well, given the recent turn of events, it will have to now, won't it... *wink* :)
Sure, but you can get BD players for well under $400 online now, and $300 *MSRP* players have been announced, coming over the next few months. So those will certainly sell for less.
I am sure we'll have sub-$200 MSRP prices on BD players before the holidays. And with promotions and sales we'll probably see BD players going for the same kind of prices HD DVD players went for last fall - only with no format war to content with.
In 2009 we'll likely have sub-$100 MSRP BD players on the market. The real limiting factor on when that happens will probably be licensing. How fast will the BDA loosen up licensing to attract more (cheaper) vendors, and how fast will they lower the licensing fees.
DVD player prices dropped once the DVD license fees were lowered.
The prices of players may come down with the influx of the Chinese market, but the cost of the DVD's themselves will remain at least $10 above the Standard DVD rates. I can honestly say that in the last 6 months I have not seen one single obviously over 40 male buy a PS3 for himself for gaming purposes. I didn't ask them all of course but I asked a lot of them.
I find it funny that all of you tech noobs think that the true tech is with discs in the first place. The real tech is on downloadable content, streaming live on the internet off of my phone. That is what the SMARTPHONE is for.
I have a smartphone, and I do watch streaming media on it - like from my Slingbox.
But give me the choice between watching content on my phone and watching it on my 61" DLP - and I'm going to pick the big screen. And give me the choice between a movie on Blu-ray and *any* download service - and I'll take it on Blu-ray.
If you don't care about quality, that's fine. Sometimes convenience trumps quality for me too. But not all the time. And when I want to really enjoy a movie, quality takes precedence.
Download services just don't have the quality to match high-def discs - not yet anyway. Broadband capacity isn't there yet, and neither is storage.
I do believe that, eventually, downloads will be king. Just as downloads are steadily taking the music market away from CD. But it won't be in the near future for those who are looking for the best quality experience.
Thankfully now that the format war is over only the early adopters who chose Blu can rejoice. But to those of us who have not it is a shame. The success of and advance of HDM will be very slow now that there is no competition. Sony and other in the blu camp do not have to lower prices now that they are not in stiff competition with another format. Also, I believe the numbers to date for total HDM revenue is only about 2%. That is not at all very impressive. So IMO for the average Joe to adopt the next generation of HDM, the prices of players will definitely have to come down for Blu to actually have success.
"In retrospect, it was the PS3 and its owners who won the war for Blu-ray."
Unfortunately this statement is false. It was the studios who shifted the tide and "won" the war for Blu. Imagine this, if all of the studios were neutral/"purple" and people had their choice of a Disney, Fox or any movie on either format I think the outcome would be totally different. It was not a war of specs, capacity, encoding, or whatever technical jargon you would like to use. It was a war of who had more content and clearly in the end that was Blu. That being said I hope we can all move on. Learn from this and make the next gen format a success. I now plan on waiting for a good profile 2.0 player that is reasonably priced so that I may enter the Blu era.
Apparently there is no bad blood between the two corporations.
http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,142649-c,chips/article.html
While I agree it is the Studios that got to make the actual decision, we know at least Warner decided because Warner's Blu-ray titles were selling more than HD DVD.
If it wasn't for the PS3 then I don't think Warner would've went Blu, and we do know other studios mentioned the PS3 as a reason for going Blu.
Everyone has an agenda and the reason why the studios choose blu is more important than the fact that they did.
"The PlayStation 3 had the craziest price anyone had ever seen on a gaming console at $499 (20GB).."
Actually, if you did a little homework the 3DO was the most expensive at $700 in 1993, followed by the Neo Geo at $650 from 1990.
Absolute price comparison: http://curmudgeongamer.com/imgdisplay.php3?shotfile=console-prices-absolute.png
And prices adjusted for inflation put the Neo Geo just shy of $1000: http://curmudgeongamer.com/imgdisplay.php3?shotfile=console-prices-relative.png
I bought my PS3 60G at launch and it was worth every penny, even to this day, still can't believe all the technology bells and whistles bundled in this console. I'd buy it again for initial msrp if I had to it all again.
Who cares about HD formats, where on earth did someone at Engadget find a copy of the West Point Military Atlas?!
Seeing this book on Engadget is like finding a martian in your shower!