Every Thursday Stephen Speicher contributes The Clicker, a weekly opinion
column on entertainment and technology:It's official; CES has wrapped up and the
posturing has begun. Last week, industries and companies alike made their annual pilgrimage to the hot Nevada desert to
demonstrate their wares. For four days they waited in hour-long cab lines. They threw elaborate parties. They artfully
clad ex-"dancers" in their company colors hoping to lure throngs of geeks with thongs and peeks (or is that
peaks?). This was all done with the dream that their industry... their company... would be declared
"it." In short, they completed for the mythical title "Year of the ..." The
competitors for this year's title were in no short supply (ironically this can rarely be said about the products
they push). Could this be the year of Blu-Ray? Could it be HD DVD? Surely the three-chip DLP will be a candidate.
Let's not rule out Sony's gem, the Ruby. Finally, an SXRD for the rest of us (well if 10k can really be
considered the rest of us).The current leader in the race, thanks in large part to the phenomenal
buzz-worthiness of Toshiba's Gigabeat S series (and, of course, the iPod), is somewhat of a mirage market, and if
things continue on the current path, this could be the first of many a "Year of Portable Media Player."
Many? Yes, many. You see – PMPs are poised to earn the dubious distinction of being a multiple winner. This
happens when year after year consumers and the media are convinced that this will be the year it all comes
together. What is a mirage market? Quite simply it's a market that shows all the promise of being the
next big thing, yet never seems to quite arrive. Year after year mirage-market manufacturers fine-tune their products in
the hope that this tweak, this goose, this spin will be the change that helps turn the corner from potential to profit.
Subsequently, sales disappoint. Where's the voice dictation we were promised? Where's the paperless office?
Mirages – all of them.
By Ryan Block
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