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iPhone use by teens at a record high and growing
Piper Jaffray has been polling US teens on their iPhone adoption rates twice a year, and the current bi-annual report was released yesterday. In the survey, 4500 teens were asked about the iPhones that they already own or plan to purchase over the next six months. Of those surveyed, 17 percent responded that they already own an iPhone, and a full 37 percent told Piper Jaffray that they plan to buy one (or have their parents buy it for them) over the next six months. If this sample is any indication, the future looks great for Apple in the teen segment. I thought the six month time frame was telling, since even the most conservative of pundits believe the iPhone 5 will be out six months from now. Apple still owns the MP3 market with 80 percent saying they own such a device, and out of that, 86 percent own some flavor of iPod with everyone else being left in the dust. This is not all hearts and flowers though, since in the poll taken last spring, 92 percent of teens owned an iPod, with total MP3 adoption of 86 percent. It may mean that more teens are using iPhones to listen to music, with over half reporting that they listen to music on their cell phone, the highest number reported for that stat. Though it's not specifically stated, I don't think it would be a stretch to say that more teens are listening to music on Apple devices than any other brands in the category. In a question about tablet sales, 22 percent of teens say they already have one, with another 20 percent planning to buy one in the next six months. I think that we can all agree that the lion's share of those purchases will be iPads as well. [via Apple 2.0]
Tragedy in Japan hasn't "meaningfully impacted iPad 2 supply"
The Japanese earthquake had a devastating effect on the people of Japan and temporarily shut down many manufacturing facilites. Analysts speculated this disaster might have produced a shortage of key components used in the electronics manufacturing process, but according to Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, this shortage will have minimal effect on the future supply of the iPad 2. Munster expects the current shortage of the iPad 2 to continue into the June 2011 quarter, but this shortage is the result of excessive demand, not component production issues. Both the iPad and the iPhone 4 could see, at most, a one to two week delay as a result of earthquake-related shutdowns. This is good news for Apple customers looking to score an iPad 2, especially those international fans who waited in long lines today, only to walk away empty-handed. Of course, there are many problems Japan faces these days that are much more important than producing computers, but it's good to hear that this isn't another issue to deal with. A resumption of Japanese manufacturing will also help to stimulate the economy in Japan and help rebuild the devastated country.
Apple: iPad 2 demand is "amazing"
"Demand for the next generation iPad 2 has been amazing." That's what Apple's spokesperson Trudy Miller told The Loop, and it's consistent with everyone's anecdotal evidence. Apple released the iPad 2 at 5 PM on Friday evening. Long lines of customers greeted the launch, hoping to be one of the first to own the hugely anticipated device. According to analyst checks, the iPad 2 sold out at many locations before the end of its first night of availability. On Sunday, Apple's online store showed a wait of 3-4 weeks to get any model of the new iPad 2. "We are working hard to get iPad 2 into the hands of every customer who wants one as quickly as possible," said Muller. Apple has not specified how many iPad 2s sold over the weekend. According to the Wall Street Journal, most analysts predict Apple sold between 400,000 and 600,000 units in the tablet's first three days on the market. Some analysts were even more bullish.
70 percent of iPad 2 buyers are new customers
Did you buy an iPad 2 at launch? Is this your first iPad? If you answered yes to both those questions, then you are similar to most people buying the iPad 2 according to Piper Jaffray analysts. Results from an informal survey of 236 people waiting in line suggests 70 percent of those customers purchasing the iPad 2 were first-time iPad buyers. This group of consumers bypassed the first generation model and waited for the new and improved version to hit retail shelves. The survey also revealed about 41 percent of those buying an iPad 2 opted for the 32 GB model, a figure that is higher than the 32 percent reported for the original 32 GB iPad. The 64 GB model and the 3G models also gained in popularity, a trend that suggests the iPad 2 will have a higher average selling price than the iPad. Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster estimates Apple sold about 500,000 iPad 2 units over the weekend. iPad 2s are reportedly hard to find in retail stores, and the estimated ship dates from Apple's online store are now 3-4 weeks. Based on these early iPad 2 sales, Munster considers his projection of 5.5 million units sold in the March quarter to be on the conservative side.
Gene Munster: Don't expect long lines for iPad 2
Gene Munster, a senior research analyst for Piper Jaffray, expects the lines for Apple's iPad 2 to be shorter than they were for the original iPad in 2010. Even so, Munster predicts Apple will sell over 1 million of the hotly anticipated iPad 2 in its first 28 days on the market. When the original iPad launched last year, it was initially available at about 1,200 storefronts. This year, the iPad 2 will launch at over 10,000 locations in the United States. Customers swooning over the iPad 2 can join a queue at their local Apple Store or at any Best Buy, Target, Walmart, AT&T, or Verizon location. The broad variety of choices should result in thousands of shorter lines rather than hundreds of massive crowds. Some Apple customers quietly "protested" against Munster's predictions for shorter lines. At least one avid camper already began his campaign to be one of the first to score an iPad 2 at the Knox Street Apple Store in Texas. Even Munster admits the Friday evening launch time, 5 pm on March 11, could still draw large crowds at some stores. My guess is the long wait will be worth it for that ultimate Apple fan in Texas. It's a bold statement of pride for fans of the company. And your name will live on in the annals of Apple rumor sites as that guy who camped out for the iPad 2. That's worth something...isn't it?
Bloggers and analysts predict Apple's Q1 2011 performance
Independent financial bloggers have traditionally been closer to the mark in predicting AAPL revenue and earnings than professional analysts, and one day away from the Apple earnings call, the differences are quite large -- about $2 billion dollars large. The professional analyst word on the street expects Apple to report earnings of US$5.38 per share for the first fiscal quarter of 2011, up from $3.67 per share for the same quarter last year. Revenue is expected to increase by a whopping 55 percent to $24.3 billion, with an increase in growth across the board on all Apple products except the iPod. This time the gap is the largest difference on record according to Fortune's Apple 2.0. In a survey of 10 amateurs and 44 professional analysts, the difference is quite dramatic. The consensus of the amateurs prognosticates that Apple will come in with revenues of $26.4 billion, a gap of $2.1 billion dollars or 8.6 percent. The difference in earnings per share (EPS) is even larger; it's forecasted by the bloggers as $1, or a full 18 percent higher than street estimates. Our old friend Gene Munster, senior analyst for Piper Jaffray, comes in on the low end, predicting that revenue will be reported to be $23.3 billion with an EPS of $5.06. It's not inconsequential to note: in light of Steve Jobs' medical leave of absence (get well soon, Steve), none of this has anything to do with Apple stock price tomorrow since I would expect the price to jump all over the place. This is despite German AAPL trading down 6 percent on the unfortunate news. A down opening of AAPL is expected by all, but by how much is anyone's guess. Please join us tomorrow at 5 PM Eastern for our live blog of the earnings call. Note: The author is an Apple shareholder, and this post should not be construed as financial advice.
Apple stock hits a new intra-day all time high and Gene Munster weighs in
Apple stock (AAPL) has hit a new all time intra-day high by a mile, rising 7.25 percent as of about 11 AM. At last look, it's sitting at $329.81 and is happily ringing in the new year on the first day of 2011 trading. It may be totally coincidental, but our old friend Gene Munster, analyst for Piper Jaffray, has announced a few predictions for 2011. The first non-surprise is that he (and just about everyone else) believes that the iPhone will come to Verizon, but he thinks it won't be until the March quarter with a 95 percent probability. I think he's betting low on that one. He gives a 90 percent probability to iTunes offering a cloud-based service and an 80 percent probability that cell phone providers will begin subsidizing 3G iPads (since this is presently happening in other countries, so why not here?). Gene also has some predictions that he considers rock-solid, including new laptops coming soon, a refresh of the Mac Pro in the first half of the year and new iMacs in the second half of 2011. The iPhone 5 will rear its head this summer (I'd bet the house on that one), and the iPad 2, if that's what it winds up being called, will flower in the spring. Another no-brainer will be that new iPods will be out in the fall, but then again, new iPods are always out in the fall. [via The Mac Observer]
55 people think the iPad is more valuable than the Galaxy Tab (updated)
If you read tech news today, expect to see a story making the rounds concerning a "consumer poll" rating the iPad versus the Galaxy Tab. According to the report, an "overwhelming majority" of consumers prefer Apple's tablet over its nearest Android competitor -- a whopping 85 percent of those queried felt the iPad had a higher perceived value than the Tab. Sounds shocking, right? Except there's one small problem. The "survey" (and really, you have to use the term loosely here) consisted of 65 people. Let's just say that again: 65 respondents. That's problem number one. Problem number two is that the survey was conducted by Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, who is not only using a bizarre and somewhat useless metric like "perceived value" to judge these devices, but is also known for wildly miscalculating sales numbers and expectations for Apple products. In fact, Gene Munster should probably be close to the top of the most wanted list for irresponsible analysts. Some of his famous misses? Take the wildly speculative report that Apple would sell 5.6m iPads in 2010 (a baseless prediction which he quickly reassessed to more reasonable digits... the day after the device's launch), or the prediction that Apple would build its own search engine (so far so good!), and of course, Gene's news that Apple will have an HDTV on the market by 2011. Did we mention the $1,000 AAPL stock price call? No? Okay. So this latest report, in which Gene apparently just polled the families living on his block, seems beyond disingenuous. The margin of error on a group of 65 people is so high that it makes the results of the iPad vs. Galaxy Tab study all but meaningless, and further demonstrates the insidious, dangerous power of some analysts and their fantasy football stock manipulations. The moral of the story? Next time you see the names Gene and Munster in the same sentence, don't just take the news with a grain of salt -- use the whole shaker. Update: Piper Jaffray analyst Andrew Murphy (one of the other researchers on this report) got in touch and gave us some background on the sourcing and methodology for finding respondents. In his words: The respondents were chosen randomly on their way in/out of a large national retail chain. After spending time with each device, they were asked which they'd prefer and what a reasonable price for each would be. It's worth noting that that information is found nowhere in the report itself, nor is any other detail provided (type of store, geographic location, age / socioeconomic background, etc.), though this charming section is included: Research Disclosures Piper Jaffray was making a market in the securities of Apple, Inc. at the time this research report was published. Piper Jaffray will buy and sell Apple, Inc. securities on a principal basis.
Piper Jaffray estimates a big boost in Mac sales
In a report issued today (cited by Apple 2.0 and SAI), Piper Jaffray's leading light on all things AAPL gazed into his crystal ball and served up some notes on NPD retail sales data. Gene Munster's numbers are especially interesting as we head into tomorrow's earnings report. The lowdown: Munster is looking for a Mac sales number between 2.8 and 2.9 million machines, based off of NPD's retail data showing a 25% year over year boost in Mac sales for the quarter. He's also looking for iPod sales between 9 and 10 million, and 7.5 million iPhone sales. What's weird is that NPD data showed Mac sales up 39% for January and February... perhaps there was a March slowdown as anticipation built for new laptop models. Considering that Q2 2009 was a record quarter for both revenue and earnings for Apple -- 2.22 million Macs sold, 11 million iPods and 3.79 million iPhones -- it will be interesting to see where this year's numbers end up, with a rebounding economy and more outlets for the iPhone 3GS. This is the second quarter of Apple's new revenue recognition scheme for iPhone and Apple TV, meaning every single sale of an iPhone hits the bottom line in full force (not to mention the 1/8th share of iPhone sale prices from previous quarters). Apple 2.0 has its quarterly rundown of analyst predictions at the ready, with a consensus earnings number close to 12 billion. I'll get out my dartboard and make my predictions here: Revenues of $12.79B, 3.25 million Macs sold, 7.75m iPhones sold. Disclaimer: I hold a small long-term position in AAPL.
Apple #56 in Fortune 500 rankings
Apple has moved up 15 spots in Fortune's annual Fortune 500 rankings to be the 56th largest company in the world by revenues. Apple had 2009 revenues of US$36.5 billion in 2009, up 12.5% from 2008. Despite the massive revenues, Apple still ranks third, behind HP (ranked 10th overall) and Dell (ranked 38th overall), in Fortune's "Computers, Office Equipment" industry rankings. Apple's share price total return to investors was a whopping 149%. Many believe that that's just the tip of the iceberg with Apple analyst Gene Munster predicting a year end target price of $299 a share. As of the time of this writing, Apple's share price sits above $248. The top three companies in Fortune 500's 2009 rankings were Wal-Mart, Exxon Mobile, and Chevron. In the Internet Services and Retailing industry, Amazon came in first (ranked 100 overall), Google second (ranked 102 overall), and Liberty Media third (ranked 227 overall).
Piper Jaffray: Apple sold 600-700 thousand iPads the first day
Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster issued a research note this morning that Apple likely sold 600-700 thousand iPads on Saturday. That's a far cry from the 200-300 thousand he originally predicted. His numbers included online pre-orders that started on March 12. It's unclear what information Munster is using for his analysis, but he does note one interesting statistic: the NYC Fifth Avenue Apple Store had 730 people in line for the iPad launch, compared to 350 for the iPhone 3GS and 540 for the iPhone 3G. Let's assume if pre-orders hadn't been available, everyone that ordered one would have shown up on day one to buy an iPad. If Munster's high-end numbers are correct, 700,000 iPads in one day is a phenomenal launch considering it's a brand new device in a brand new category. The iPhone 3G and 3GS sold one million units in three days and the first iPhone sold one million units in 74 days. The iPhone wasn't in an entirely new category, however -- after all, many buyers had previously owned a mobile phone or smartphone before. Selling 700,000 units of a new device in a new consumer electronics category in one day is incredible. It will be interesting to see if the iPad can break the one million mark by the end of its third day of availability on Tuesday (as many retail stores were closed for Easter this Sunday). With the 3G-enabled version of the iPad slated to launch later this month, there's likely to be another spike in sales for Apple's latest creation. Even though sales for the iPad will inevitably trail off after the launch day fervor, considering the strong sales numbers already reached, the iPad is definitely on track to beat the first iPhone's sales. [Via MacRumors] Thanks to Chris R. for his contributions to this post.
NPD: Mac sales up 39 percent in January and Febuary as iPod sales rebound
Well, it looks like it's not just iPad pre-orders that are possibly be beating a few expectations -- according to NPD, sales of Macs and iPods were also up over some estimates in January and February. Citing the report, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster says that sales of Macs were up 39% year over year for the two months (ahead of estimates of 22%), which should translate to sales of between 2.8 to 2.9 million Macs for the full quarter, while iPod sales were up 7% during the same period, suggesting total iPod sales of between nine and ten million for the first quarter. That latter number may actually be the more impressive of the two, as it marks the first time iPod sales have rebounded into positive territory in a full sixteen months -- although that trend could just as easily be reversed again if, say, Apple rolls out a new iPhone that cuts into iPod sales.
Gene Munster: 2010 is the "Year of the Mac," sales up significantly
When Gene Munster talks, people listen. The Piper Jaffray analyst delivered one of his missives this morning stating that his analysis of Mac retail sales in the U.S., based on numbers tracked by NPD Group, are up about 26% year-over-year for the December quarter. This is higher than the average Wall Street estimate of 19% year-over-year growth. What does that mean in terms of units sold? Munster, who is not pictured at right, believes that translates to about 3.1 million Macs sold in the U.S. last quarter. Munster's last estimate was for Apple to sell around 2.9 million Macs, so even his own estimates are turning out to be somewhat conservative. Munster believes that Street estimates for 2010 will need to come up. The Street shows about 14% year-over-year growth in Mac sales this year, which is well below the 20% or so growth that Apple is demonstrating. In his note, Munster wrote that "2010 is shaping up to be the year of the Mac." Munster concluded his note with a statement that he's confident in his estimate of 9.3 million iPhone shipments last quarter. We'll all find out for sure on Monday, when Apple reports the actual December quarter results. We'll liveblog the financial fun right here on TUAW, so stay tuned next week. [via Business Insider]
Munster: Apple will sell more than 36 million iPhones worldwide in 2010
The wizard of tech on Wall Street, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster, is bullish on AAPL. Not only does the senior research analyst (who looks nothing like our artistic portrait at right) project that the company will sell 36 million iPhones in 2010, but he believes that the number is conservative for international sales and doesn't take into account any expansion to other U.S. cell carriers -- Verizon, for instance. Munster's prognostications were published in a note to investors this morning, where he noted that this will be the first full year of sales with new carriers in the U.K., Canada, and France, and also the first full year of sales in China. Munster also believes that a new iPhone model will arrive around the usual June - July time frame, and that will drive sales as well. While the estimates seem rather optimistic, Munster says that his models are actually quite conservative, particularly when international sales are taken into account. For example, the Piper Jaffray models show that AT&T alone will sell 15.8 million iPhones to their customer base of 82.5 million customers, while a composite figure for three Russian carriers shows 1.8 million iPhones being sold to a combined base of 160 million subscribers. Looking ahead for calendar year 2011, Munster sees a worldwide total sales figure of 48.5 million iPhones, once again based on a model that he considers conservative. [via AppleInsider]
Munster predicts: Apple to sell 7 million iPhones in September quarter
Piper Jaffray senior research analyst Gene Munster, who is not pictured at right, is continuing his love affair with all things AAPL. In the last few weeks he's told us that the iPhone will be picked up by another U.S. carrier in 2010, that Steve Jobs will be on hand at the September 9th Apple music event, and that there would be an AppleTV announcement at the event (this was quashed by Jim Dalrymple at The Loop). Now the Munster-man is back with even more good news. He believes now that manufacturing capacity for the iPhone 3GS has ramped up and supply is adequate, Apple is on track to sell 7 million iPhones during the quarter ending September 30th. According to Munster, tight supplies of the 3GS at launch led AT&T store managers to recommend the less pricey 3G to customers. Now that supplies are adequate, store managers are recommending the 3GS, which remains the best selling device at AT&T outlets. Piper Jaffray's figures indicate that during August, the iPhone took share from BlackBerry, the Nokia E71x, and other competitors. Munster's last prediction isn't so rosy, but is based on historical precedent -- he expects Apple's stock price to dip after tomorrow's event by about 1 percent. [via AppleInsider]
Munster: Apple to sell 500,000 units of iPhone 3G S this weekend
Everyone's favorite Apple analyst, Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray, is positively bullish on Apple and the iPhone. In a forecast released today and reported in AppleInsider, Munster says he expects Apple to sell a half-million units of the iPhone 3G S this weekend. This is much more than the 270,000 first-generation iPhones sold in the first weekend in 2007, but pales in comparison to the 1 million mark set last year with the release of the iPhone 3G. The difference this year? When the iPhone 3G was released in 2008, the new equipment was also accompanied by a drop in price and availability in 21 countries. For new users, the 3G S is the same price as the 3G, and the release of the 3G S tomorrow will only happen in 8 key market countries.Munster's other prognostications include a total of 3 million iPhones sold in June for a quarterly total of 5 million, and an estimate of 7 million sold in the upcoming September quarter. He continues to rate AAPL as a buy, and has a $180 target share price for Apple.
Wall Street analysts anticipate WWDC 09
With WWDC 09 coming up next week, Wall Street analysts are polishing their crystal balls and commenting on what they think we'll hear about. In a post on Barron's Tech Trader Daily blog, Eric Savitz polled the top tech analysts for their ideas. Yair Reiner of Oppenheimer believes that the new iPhones will be delayed until WWDC so that the conference focus will be on Snow Leopard and iPhone OS 3.0. Shaw Wu of Kaufman Brothers is in agreement, and Wu also believes that AT&T will offer more flexible service plans, and that the iPhone line will split into a high-end version with improved battery life and a junior version with less functionality. Savitz's post goes on to tap Phil Cusick of Macquarie Research for his ideas, which also include the split of the line into high-end and entry-level iPhones. He's noted as saying that the high-end phone will include both a front camera for video chat and a rear mounted autofocus camera, but that an OLED screen won't be a feature of this device. Kathryn Huberty of Morgan Stanley is cited as believing that the new iPhones will be unveiled at WWDC, with a $100 price cut, lower AT&T service plan fees, and entrance into the China market, thereby increasing demand. Huberty is noted as thinking that Apple won't add another US carrier before 2011. Vincent Rech of Societe Generale also believes that China is ripe for an iPhone distribution deal. Everybody's favorite research analyst, Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray, has high hopes for AppleTV in the near future, according to a post on the Wall Street Journal's All Things Digital site today. Blogger John Paczkowsi cites Munster as believing that Apple is working on both a new AppleTV for a September release and an App Store to go with it. WWDC 09 might be used as a launch site for an AppleTV SDK, along with an announcement of an App Store for AppleTV for a 2010 launch. Munster, who has a pretty good track record at Apple predictions, feels that future AppleTV apps could include digital video services for expanding content offerings (he cites Hulu as an example) and that an SDK would enable use of the iPhone or iPod touch as a game controller. The consensus? Pretty much everyone believes that new iPhones are imminent, although the timing of the release is up in the air. Several of the analysts believe that the new devices will be announced at a separate Apple event towards the end of June where Steve Jobs can make his long-awaited return to the company. Whatever the outcome of WWDC, be sure to stay tuned to TUAW for our continuing coverage of this important event.
AT&T activates 146k iPhones in Q2, Wall Street frowns
While earlier estimates suggested that AT&T would make out like gangbusters considering just how many iPhones it reportedly moved as Q2 came to a close, investors aren't reacting fondly to the firm's latest report. Even though the telco posted a $2.9 billion increase in net income and sales of $29.5 billion, it "only" managed to activate 146,000 iPhones -- which sent Apple's stock tumbling up to 6% (read: billions). Notably, some 40-percent of those iPhone buyers were new to AT&T, which helped to slash customer turnover to a record low, but it's not surprise with previous estimates as high as 1m+ iPhones sold, these numbers didn't exactly impress Wall Street; Piper Jaffray & Co. analyst Gene Munster even went so far as to call the amount of iPhone activations "a disappointment."Update: We went back and edited this post to present a better sense of what's going on in this story.[Via mocoNews]
500,000 iPhones sold so far -- but can Apple keep up?
No matter how you slice it, moving 500,000 units of any product during its inaugural weekend launch is big. According to Gene Munster, analyst at Piper Jaffray, that's exactly what Apple's iPhone managed to pull off. After originally expecting Apple to sell "only" 200,000 iPhones on Friday and Saturday, he's now estimating that Apple sold a half-million iPhones from start of sales at 6pm on Friday until close of business on Sunday even with supply issues at AT&T store. According to their survey, 95% of buyers purchased the 8GB model with 50% of all buyers making the switch from another carrier to AT&T. Great news right? Maybe, but in a potentially worrying trend, Apple is showing a marked decrease in iPhone availability at their retail locations this morning. While stores showed a 100% iPhone availability (they don't break it down by 4GB and 8GB models) on Saturday which dropped to 84% on Sunday, Apple's retail channel is showing a further decline in availability for Monday across Apple's brick and mortar retail business. In particular, Californians not living in San Francisco will have a tough time locating the device with 34 of 36 stores bleeding red on Apple's retail locator site -- a potential supply problem especially if AT&T shops remain void of product. Sure, you can still order on-line albeit with that same 2-4 week delivery delay we've seen since day 1.Update: Global Equities Research claims 525,000 iPhones were sold through Sunday. A quick calculation shows that only 61% of Apple's 164 stores are stocked with iPhones for today or 23% fewer than yesterday.
Apple to drop new Macbooks and iMacs at WWDC?
While we know for sure that Steve is going to show off a "feature-complete" version of Leopard at this year's WWDC, and we wouldn't be surprised if the iPhone got some quality time on stage as well, we haven't really heard anything solid about any hardware revisions taking place next month. Well, Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray's resident Apple analyst, crunched some numbers (or visited MacRumors) recently and speculated during a recent conference call that he expects to see new MacBook Pros released at WWDC. Seeing as Apple is basically the only big company that hasn't announced a Santa Rosa laptop, an announcement at WWDC wouldn't exactly shock us, but Munster decided to get a little wackier with his predictions, saying that by his calculations, Apple releases new pro lappies every 182 days, and that the current MBP has been on the market for 209 days. Similarly, Munster used the vast resources of the multinational investment bank that employs him to determine that Apple releases new iMacs around every 168 days, and that the current generation has been on the market for 257 days. Quelle horreur! We're not sure how these numbers led Gene to determine that we'll see new MBPs for sure and maybe new iMacs (seems like the other way around to us), but there it is. Analysts are often prone to over-speculating about Apple launches, but at this point it's almost anyone's guess -- trying to call Apple's next move is a cruel, cruel mistress.[Thanks, Kiwi]