Osborne effect? What Osborne effect?
posted June 21st 2005 2:13PM
By now, you've surely heard about the "Osborne Effect," which
occurs when a computer manufacturer pre-announces a product long before it's introduced, and goes bust as customers
stop buying current models in anticipation of the new ones. The term is based on Osborne Computing, which went under in
the early 1980s, and has been used repeatedly in recent weeks
by pundits discussing the possibility
that Apple could share Osborne's fate as potential customers delay purchases until
Intel-based Macs hit store shelves. Problem is,
there is no Osborne effect. As Osborne expert Charles Eicher points out in The Register, "they had transitioned to a
new model, and it was finally shipping. Sales were going well, and money was flowing back into the company after months
of postponed sales." Then, a senior exec discovered that the company had a pile of motherboards from the earlier model
(worth about $150K), and figured it would make good sense to build those into full-fledged computers, which ended up
costing the company $2 million. Osborne went under, and is now a textbook case in how not to run a business — though,
as it turns out, the textbooks (and, of course, the unnamed exec) had things a little wrong.
That gives me a lot to think about...
Even with this possibility... I do not think this applies to the recent Mac-Tel switch. Jobs positioned this now because Apple has it's coffers full from the Ipod sales. (est. 1.3 billion for 2k4) With that windfall they can take a sales hit on its computers. His timing is perfect.
And Cringely says Osborne Effect was related to something yet completely different:
http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/pulpit20050616.html
What was Osborne really up to?
While it's fun to go back and reminisce some more, the original comparison was still a good one. It's still valid as an "effect" and a potential scary thing to do even if it wasn't the final nail in any corporations coffin.
I guess to really match up to the "real" Osborne Effect, Apple would simply need to go back and spend billions making old mac's after the transition.
My guess is that Jobs just figured he couldn't stop bloggers from learning about the switch over - at least the news could be much better spun directly out of the horses mouth.
Check out the white on that thing's case... man, what an Apple ripoff.
*sniff* Making fun of something I thought was so cool at the time. I still have my Osborne and she still boots up just perfectly. Long live 5-1/4"s!
This is bullshit, and Cringely is right. The large screen of the competing Kaypro is what killed Osborne. My dad owned the Osborne, but it was understood that you had to buy an external monitor (not cheap in those days) to really use it, and a shelf (companies made these custom acrylic things) to cantilever the monitor over the Osborne. It was lame, but you bought it, because until the Kaypro, you had to.
Not only was the Kaypro cheaper, it already had the "big" screen built in, making it FAR cheaper, and actually transportable (since you didn't have to lug around a separate crt & cables.)
I still remember lusting after my friend's Kaypro. Yes, I'm old.
Wow, he's an expert in the Osborne effect, and he says that the Osborne effect doesn't exist. Vis a vis, he is an expert in... nothing!
my aunt wrote a book on an osborne, and now i have that same machine, and it still works!
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0754600998/qid=1119382065/sr=8-4/ref=sr_8_xs_ap_i4_xgl14/104-0021082-1543163?v=glance&s=books&n=507846
The Osborne effect that I remember involves larger biceps.
I was going to by a PowerBook but I'll wait until next year -- the G-4 is getting old. Osborne effect 1.
Whew!!! I thought this had something to do with Ozzy Osbourn!!! I thought perhaps my Mac was going to start mumbling and bitching about dogshit on the carpet. SSSHARROOOOOOOONNN! Thanks for enlightening me!!!!
"Wow, he's an expert in the Osborne effect, and he says that the Osborne effect doesn't exist. Vis a vis, he is an expert in... nothing!"
vis-?is
prep.
1. Face to face with; opposite to.
2. Compared with.
3. In relation to.
(source: http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=vis-a-vis)
Misusing fancy words to sound smart while insulting someone else doesn't make you look too bright. Using "therefore" instead would've made sense, and wouldn't have made you look silly. :)
I thought Osborne bit the head off of a bat...I could have sworn that was it...a little furry brown bat? No?
"ergo" would've worked if he really needed that "no really, I totally know Latin, fo'serious!" vibe.
Also, the post said he was an expert on Osborne, not the Osborne effect.
Yeah, I thought the Osborne effect was actually the reason for such "great" television such as Newlyweds, The Barkers, and the new Brittney reality show?
Yep I agree its the Ozzy Osbourne Effect they are talking about. mk.
Wow a notebook with two drives…
Actuality I dreamed about how cool I would be if I could have on of these back in the day. But I got a Commodore instead. It was much better. & now both company are gone.
Naw, Kaypro didn't kill Osborne, and the price didn't kill Osborne and the 7 inch screen didn't kill Osborne. He had those thousands of motherboards lying around and the guy who fronted them up sued--because they WEREN'T going to pay for them or use them--before sales of the Exec had really taken off sufficiently. It was a cashflow problem that really did come from the lag of O1s not moving before OEs took off and the suit hitting them (there were clearly contracts, and the new line wasn't sufficiently independent of the obligations of the old line to keep it safe from the suit).
If enough people are worried about having an orphan with a pre-Intel product from Apple that Apple can't sustain cashflow, it'll be the Osborne Effect. Especially if it's exacerbated by a suit from IBM (on which, unlike in the Osborne, they clearly don't have a hope of winning).
#13 - using French in postings is pass?
Well there is an Apple effect. I've talked to several people who were going to buy a Mac but now wanted to wait. When I explained they'd probably get 7 years out of a new Mac they changed their minds again. Apple needs to make a public commitment to PowerPC OS releases and a Made For Mac certification that requires PowerPC compatibility to keep current sales moving.
I agree with the previous post. They need a sticker showing that software is PowerPC/Intel compatible for consumers. This is necessary for both crowds of consumers.
I just bought a new Mac and could care less about this transition. Doesn't bother me a bit.
I think there are many "effects" that need attention to from Apple. All I know is:
1. I wouldn't want one of the first Macintels anyways;
2. I refuse to/won't be using Rosetta for anything on this Mac or the next one I buy in the future;
3. and Jobs better have the Macintels waiting promptly within a year for his own benefit and Apple's.