Japanese teens weigh habits: cellphones or smoking?

It might be slightly on the ad hoc ergo propter hoc end, but officials have apparently noticed a dramatic decline in the smoking habits of kids in Japan—ranging between 6 to even 50% (depending on demographic) in minors between the ages of 13 and 18—that correllates with patterns in teenage cellphone adoption. The link is drawn by the fact that ¥4000-6000 monthly cellphone plans might be costing these kids a significant portion of their ¥6000-7000 allowance. Well, that, or maybe these kids have finally found something else to do with their hands in public that looks adequately grown-up and empowering.

[Via TechDirt, thanks Eric]

[OddManOut @ Dec 19th 2005 1:05AM]

Hmm...maybe I'll actually be able to see where I'm going the next time I go to a video arcade in Tokyo then...

[Max @ Dec 19th 2005 1:05AM]

I believe it's "post hoc, ergo propter hoc" --"ad hoc, ergo propter hoc" really can't make sense, in English or in Latin.

And, after all, quidquid Latine dictum sit, altum sonatur.

[n8 @ Dec 19th 2005 1:05AM]

Trading lung cancer for brain cancer...

[steve dp @ Dec 19th 2005 1:05AM]

you sure?

http://www.kilty.com/reason.htm#Ad%20Hoc

[Chir @ Dec 19th 2005 1:05AM]

Much of the correlation studies in social science suffer from the fallacy of post hoc, ergo propter hoc, but these studies still have some value, so it's not necessary to point out this particular fallacy. Correlation studies are not required to point out cause-and-effect, after all. They only need to prove the significance of a relationship.

[Daniel @ Dec 19th 2005 1:05AM]

Lol, I love it when people, trying to sound smart, criticize journalists, only to have someone like steve dp turn around and bite them in the ass. :)

"And, after all, quidquid Latine dictum sit, altum sonatur."

That explains Max' motives: 'Anything said in Latin sounds profound', huh buddy?

:)

Interesting piece, btw.

[H4X0R @ Dec 19th 2005 1:05AM]

Max you've been pwn3d!

[Hidden Nook @ Dec 19th 2005 1:05AM]

Hmm that is interesting. Perhaps they can not hold their coffee/tea, talk on the cell phone and smoke at the same time!

If only they had a third arm... ;)

[ed @ Dec 19th 2005 1:05AM]

Man, these kids get 6000 to 7000 yen allowances? That's like 60 to 70 USD. I wish I had that kind of allowance while growing up.

[shathe @ Dec 19th 2005 1:05AM]

ed.... no, you probably don't wish that. if you'd had it, you'd probably grow up to be a spineless skulking spoiled lower brat like 95% of the kids in toyko. and plus your parents might have left you in the car with the windows up while they played pachinko on a 100degC day.

[Barry Brown @ Dec 19th 2005 1:05AM]

Also backed up by a british medical journal article from 2000:

http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0999/is_7269_321/ai_67581559

no latin though ;-)

[tzakiel @ Dec 19th 2005 1:05AM]

japanese kids are often spoiled money wise ed, but lets also not forget that $60 or $70 US doesnt go nearly as far in japan. Resident evil 4, for gamecube, came out at 8190 yen or $80 for example.

[Big Ben @ Dec 19th 2005 1:05AM]

Actually, Max didn't get pwn'd. He's right, and steve dp simply looked for something in particular and found someone else who made the same mistake. Now, grammatically, "ad" and "post" may fit these sentences, but the logical fallacy begins "post hoc �"

Google the two phrases. You'll get 38,000 hits for "post hoc" and 272 for "ad hoc." Or, even better, visit http://www.tucows.com/preview/205516 and download the fallacy tutorial and learn about all sorts of logical fallacies.