Kinect retail box

Industry analysts have already weighed in with their thoughts on Kinect's $150 price point -- now we're hearing from one of them on how well he thinks the gizmo will sell. The answer: really well, actually.

Colin Sebastian of Lazard Capital has crunched numbers and deduced that Microsoft is manufacturing the motion sensor at a rate of two million per month, and believes that four million will be sold by 2011. That figure doesn't purely represent stand-alone sales, however. "The mix of Xbox 360 shipments for the holidays will be more heavily weighted toward the Kinect bundle," Sebastian believes, which is why he's upped his sales forecast from three million units in calendar Q4.

Interestingly, the analyst points out that sales of PlayStation Move, which launches roughly six weeks earlier on September 19 and "without as much 'buzz' as Kinect," could offer a better picture of how Microsoft's motion control offering will perform after it makes its bow on November 4.

This article was originally published on Joystiq.

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